Roughing out September transactions

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, GusGus11 said:

 

Willi Castro in 100 ABs as a right hander and consistent starts vs lefties he his slashing .240/.327/.320. Thats brutal. And a lot of those have had him batting 5th. We played Oakland out of the all star break and we started Willi all weekend vs their lefties and he was in a like a 5/40 stretch or something. Its robotic.

Im aware none of the young guys have done anything vs lefties either. But they dont get conssitent reps. Wallner has gotten a few starts. But AK and Julien constantly sit. If they have 5 straight starts against lefties and still slug lower than Castros abysmal .320 maybe I say we try again next year. But right now we are not even giving them reps.

Oakland through JP Sears vs us. Stats said lefties hit 287 at the time off him and righties .229. We started Castro and our right handed platoons anyways. Our righties were 2/19 against him with Vazquez shockingly having both hits. Our default lefties(again, didnt have enough righties to start) were Kepler and AK. 2/5 with a homer. AK homered.

AK and Julien if you remember then had the 3 run rally and won that game for us, Julien pinch hit when they right hander came in.

Point is so often there are stats that show a struggling lefty vs lefties and we dont give our youth a chance. Similar thing happend vs KC. Yarborough at the time had blah splits vs Lefties. Wallner started and hit a homer.....our righties were shut down. But again, Julien didnt even get a crack.

So basically my argument isnt that any of these kids would forsure be better. Its that after 100 ABs we know Castro is bad. And while Castro is technically their age, hes a role playing platoon guy who barely even made our roster(and his value is base running and late game Defense) we should not be halting growth to give that guy and his .647 OPS vs lefties every start vs them.

Some games? Again, sure. Everyone has to play sometimes. Every time? Nonsense

Not according to Fangraphs. I posted a screenshot of all the Twins hitters with at least 20 PAs vs a lefty pitcher this year sorted by wRC+. Fangraphs sure thinks he's done alright vs lefties.

I'm not arguing against the need to give the kids ABs vs lefties. I said I agreed with that stance in my post. That's a big response to a point I stated I agreed with. But Fangraphs has some much different numbers for Castro against lefties than you're presenting to me. That's why I posted the picture.

[GusGus11]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Not according to Fangraphs. I posted a screenshot of all the Twins hitters with at least 20 PAs vs a lefty pitcher this year sorted by wRC+. Fangraphs sure thinks he's done alright vs lefties.

I'm not arguing against the need to give the kids ABs vs lefties. I said I agreed with that stance in my post. That's a big response to a point I stated I agreed with. But Fangraphs has some much different numbers for Castro against lefties than you're presenting to me. That's why I posted the picture.

I just simply presented to you what his slash line is vs lefties

Its .240/.327/.320.

Thats all I said ha. And its factually correct. And thats in 100 ABs so all I am saying is we have seen Castro repeatedly start vs left handers and produce a OPS of .647. Which is well below league average and hes a not part of our future core to develop.

Now again, If Julien gets 100 AB/s and consistently plays every game vs a lefty and he produces worse than Castro. Sure, maybe develop him in the off season or something.

So my post didnt have anything to do with arguing your data or anything like that. I get it that the kids havent hit either. But they have had smaller reps. And in the case of AK and Wallner. AAA larger samples vs lefties show they can hit them very well. Julien more average against them.

[Riverbrian]

5 minutes ago, GusGus11 said:

Exactly and thats why Id give them opportunity with consistent reps and see what happens.

I know Julien helped win us the Pirates game when Keuchel was nearly perfect. Julien delivered early on vs the lefty

LIke I said in a post above. If we started Julien or AK like 5 straight games vs lefties and it was proof that they were lost, ok then maybe platoon. 

But its not like we have David Freese off the bench as a righty like the Dodgers did in October a few years ago. We are talking Vazquez and Farmer.

So I just want them to 1. get legit reps and 2. Get the occaisional chance to face a lefty 1 time in a game rather than subbed out prematurely.

Heck I said in a different thread its also frustrating because it appears we hold them to a different standard.  Last week we faced Burnes who like JP sears in Oakland has a bit reverse of splits. So we started Luplow vs Burnes. What that doesnt account for tho is that 1. Burnes is still really good and 2. Luplow is so bad against right handers he wouldnt be in the league if thats who he faced.

So julien cant bat against JP Sears left on left but Jordan freaking Luplow can go right on right with Corbin Burnes?!?! Just doesnt add up

The Twins are much more inclined to avoid the lefty vs lefty compared to the righty vs righty. 

Historical platoon numbers suggest that lefty hitters do worse against left handed arms than righty hitters do against right handed arms but these are numbers that are created over decades and decades of 162 game schedules. 

It's a lot of numbers that go into those historical numbers. 

What you and I seem to agree on is this question. What about each individual that goes into those historical numbers? What Julien will produce isn't historical... it's individual. 

Anyway... like I said earlier. The die has been cast. They haven't been fed a diet. It's a bad time to start when the chips are down.

The best that I can hope for in the playoffs is that we don't pinch hit for Julien in the 5th inning because Genesis Cabrera was brought into the game.

I hope Rocco can hold out so Julien and Kirilloff are around to face Romano if needed. I don't hold much hope on that... because the die has been cast.    

[GusGus11]

14 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The Twins are much more inclined to avoid the lefty vs lefty compared to the righty vs righty. 

Historical platoon numbers suggest that lefty hitters do worse against left handed arms than righty hitters do against right handed arms but these are numbers that are created over decades and decades of 162 game schedules. 

It's a lot of numbers that go into those historical numbers. 

What you and I seem to agree on is this question. What about each individual that goes into those historical numbers? What Julien will produce isn't historical... it's individual. 

Anyway... like I said earlier. The die has been cast. They haven't been fed a diet. It's a bad time to start when the chips are down.

The best that I can hope for in the playoffs is that we don't pinch hit for Julien in the 5th inning because Genesis Cabrera was brought into the game.

I hope Rocco can hold out so Julien and Kirilloff are around to face Romano if needed. I don't hold much hope on that... because the die has been cast.    

Well, maybe things are changing already with a huge series that could win the division

Jeffers is catching his second game in a row. We literally havent done that all year but with Cleveland in town its pretty imperative he catches 2 of the 3.

Thats not a platoon pitching situation but hey, its a start to doing something slightly different.

[Riverbrian]

4 minutes ago, GusGus11 said:

Well, maybe things are changing already with a huge series that could win the division

Jeffers is catching his second game in a row. We literally havent done that all year but with Cleveland in town its pretty imperative he catches 2 of the 3.

Thats not a platoon pitching situation but hey, its a start to doing something slightly different.

Or... Vazquez is worn out because he had to play 1B yesterday. 😉

[GusGus11]

2 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Or... Vazquez is worn out because he had to play 1B yesterday. 😉

Then by all means lets get a cushion and sub him in to play 1B for the final 3 innings tonight too

[nicksaviking]

Man, for one reason or another, the team has been playing so much better without most of these guys. Stewart is the only one I'd really like to have back, followed by Kirilloff but only if he's absolutely 100% healthy. I'd rather push ahead with the youth movement.

And yes, there are multiple guys I'm unafraid of removing from the 40-man.

[stringer bell]

52 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

While I don't disagree that they need to give the kids PAs vs lefties, I'm not sure where you're getting your info on Castro this year. Very different sample size numbers here, obviously, but Castro has definitely been better against lefties than any of the young lefties.

 

Another way to look at this is from the perspective of the veteran right handed hitters--when are the depth guys better utilized than batting against a left handed pitcher, especially when the left handed hitters have not produced as of yet. Solano and Farmer, based on their records, should be playing when a left hander is on the mound. 

This year's ineffectiveness against left handers is due to both the reduced production of guys with a history of clubbing lefties (Buxton, Farmer and to a lesser extent Correa and Solano) and with the lack of success from the young guys--Kirilloff, Julien, Wallner and Larnach when he was here. 

Baldelli has started Wallner against two lefties lately (yesterday and the Keuchel Pittsburgh game) instead of Kepler. I know Kirilloff started against a couple of lefties (in the outfield) and Julien has maybe one or two starts against same sided throwers. I agree with Brian about the pinch hitting, particularly when it makes the defense worse and I don't know how it can be quantified that having viable pinch-hitting options late in a game may be more valuable than in early or middle innings. 

57 minutes ago, GusGus11 said:

 

Willi Castro in 100 ABs as a right hander and consistent starts vs lefties he his slashing .240/.327/.320. Thats brutal. And a lot of those have had him batting 5th. We played Oakland out of the all star break and we started Willi all weekend vs their lefties and he was in a like a 5/40 stretch or something. Its robotic.

Im aware none of the young guys have done anything vs lefties either. But they dont get conssitent reps. Wallner has gotten a few starts. But AK and Julien constantly sit. If they have 5 straight starts against lefties and still slug lower than Castros abysmal .320 maybe I say we try again next year. But right now we are not even giving them reps.

Oakland threw JP Sears vs us., Stats said lefties hit 287 at the time off him and righties .229. We started Castro and our right handed platoons anyways. Our righties were 2/19 against him with Vazquez shockingly having both hits. Our default lefties(again, didnt have enough righties to start) were Kepler and AK. 2/5 with a homer. AK homered.

AK and Julien if you remember then had the 3 run rally and won that game for us, Julien pinch hit when they right hander came in.

Point is so often there are stats that show a struggling lefty vs lefties and we dont give our youth a chance. Similar thing happend vs KC. Yarborough at the time had blah splits vs Lefties. Wallner started and hit a homer.....our righties were shut down. But again, Julien didnt even get a crack.

So basically my argument isnt that any of these kids would forsure be better. Its that after 100 ABs we know Castro is bad. And while Castro is technically their age, hes a role playing platoon guy who barely even made our roster(and his value is base running and late game Defense) we should not be halting growth to give that guy and his .647 OPS vs lefties every start vs them.

Some games? Again, sure. Everyone has to play sometimes. Every time? Nonsense

Do we know who was on the bench as a result of Willi Castro being in the lineup. It is my recollection that this was when the club was at least a player short (Miranda or maybe Polanco injured but not on the IL). I'll also state that Willi Castro has value not reflected in his hitting stats. Having the flexibility provided by his versatility is a plus, as is his base running and his fielding, hence his relatively high WAR despite pedestrian offensive numbers.

Left handed starters probably only face a team's very best left handed hitters. Guys like Freddie Freeman and Cory Seager hit no matter what hand pitchers throw with. It may be why guys like Sears look like they are vulnerable to same sided hitters

[GusGus11]

3 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Another way to look at this is from the perspective of the veteran right handed hitters--when are the depth guys better utilized than batting against a left handed pitcher, especially when the left handed hitters have not produced as of yet. Solano and Farmer, based on their records, should be playing when a left hander is on the mound. 

This year's ineffectiveness against left handers is due to both the reduced production of guys with a history of clubbing lefties (Buxton, Farmer and to a lesser extent Correa and Solano) and with the lack of success from the young guys--Kirilloff, Julien, Wallner and Larnach when he was here. 

Baldelli has started Wallner against two lefties lately (yesterday and the Keuchel Pittsburgh game) instead of Kepler. I know Kirilloff started against a couple of lefties (in the outfield) and Julien has maybe one or two starts against same sided throwers. I agree with Brian about the pinch hitting, particularly when it makes the defense worse and I don't know how it can be quantified that having viable pinch-hitting options late in a game may be more valuable than in early or middle innings. 

Do we know who was on the bench as a result of Willi Castro being in the lineup. It is my recollection that this was when the club was at least a player short (Miranda or maybe Polanco injured but not on the IL). I'll also state that Willi Castro has value not reflected in his hitting stats. Having the flexibility provided by his versatility is a plus, as is his base running and his fielding, hence his relatively high WAR despite pedestrian offensive numbers.

Left handed starters probably only face a team's very best left handed hitters. Guys like Freddie Freeman and Cory Seager hit no matter what hand pitchers throw with. It may be why guys like Sears look like they are vulnerable to same sided hitters

Julien always on the bench. Like I referenced Sears and Yarborough specifically who in Spears case is worse vs lefties and yarborough a push.

Wallner as you mentioned has had a few. Ak got some too. But none consistently. And thats all I ask for. Lets see what they got.

Im not saying they are forsure better than castro or Farmer but give them some games to prove it, and it doesnt have to be every game of course. But some consistent reps.

Id argue most important tho is in the games they do start as you and Brian both seem to agree. Dont pull them early when likely their spot comes up more than just once. Let them face the lefty there unless there is some stat that says righties are waaaaaaaaaay better or Farmer specifically kills said pitcher.

Actually one time Rocco did leave Wallner in vs a lefty. Holton for Detroit it was still really early like the 4th inning but Rocco let him hit with bases loaded. Found it kinda funny he chose that one cause Holton is elite and Wallner K'd easily. But I like that he gave him that shot.

Would be nice if he didnt just seem to throw darts when those chances come though.

[jorgenswest]

If players need more time to develop against lefties that has to happen in the off season or once a team is out of contention. I think the choice is whether to keep Wallner and Julien in the minors longer so they are more prepared to hit lefties in the majors or bring them up knowing you will try to limit their exposure against left handed pitching.

I think they will both figure it out. Wallner has had success against minor league left handed pitching. Julien did very poorly last year. He will get there but it isn’t going to be this season. The new generation of pitching machines can help and he will do the work.

[Mike Sixel]

55 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Man, for one reason or another, the team has been playing so much better without most of these guys. Stewart is the only one I'd really like to have back, followed by Kirilloff but only if he's absolutely 100% healthy. I'd rather push ahead with the youth movement.

And yes, there are multiple guys I'm unafraid of removing from the 40-man.

We are largely on the same page, but the FO isn't even reading the same book we are, so.....

[GusGus11]

Funderburk getting the call. Finally

[stringer bell]

Really curious who will be recalled on Friday. With two extra spots available and only one can be a pitcher, I don't know who will be brought up. With Buxton, Kirilloff and Castro all expected back shortly, anyone else might only be up for a few days. Kirilloff had three hits today for the Saints, so he probably won't be down for much longer. 

On the pitching side, Stewart is due to return in a week or two, Alcalá could be back and Chris Paddack also could be pitching for the Twins in a couple of weeks, but who is coming up tomorrow?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

On 8/28/2023 at 3:24 PM, chpettit19 said:

 

Yeah, in the Martin thread I said I'd get him on the 40-man before Sept 1 even if he's not on the 26-man cuz I'd want to at least have him as an option. Doubt that happens, though.

And this is the silliness of it all. It's not like we're not going to add Martin to the 40-man over the winter for next year and it's not like we don't have some chaff that could go away from our current 40-man.  So why not add him now and have him available?  It doesn't cost them anything.  He won't rack up service time unless we really need him and then we won't care.  Argh!