Will a dominate second half with a playoff series win make people feel better?

[Trov]

Going into the break the Twins were not looking good, and injuries were mounting, offense was terrible and pitching was faltering a little.  The sky was falling again as Cleveland took the lead in the division and we had visions of last year.  There was hope due to fact we were going to be facing one of the easiest schedules in the league, and Cleveland was facing one of toughest.  

We broke out of the second half gate looking great, taking 5 of 7 on road trip, then sweeping the south siders.  All was great, we were winning and back in first.  The trade deadline was approaching and the talks were on little tweaks or selling off some of pitching to rebuild the farm system.  Adding 1 arm to pen and a right handed hitting OF was talked about.  Then we lose 5 in row, including being swept by the last place Royals, which started a 7 game win streak for the Royals.  The sky was falling again and the deadline was right there. 

Many wanted to buy hard, but nothing was done, and all the talk was the season is over, the FO, manager need to go.  Buck is on the IL, we have no offense and pitching is failing even more. We followed that losing streak with winning 6 of 7 and on current 5 game winning streak.  3 of the wins against an above .500 team, for now, but been really bad.  We are are putting up a few big run games, but still winning low scoring games.  

We are getting some guys healthy, and Lewis is set to come back in coming weeks.  Buck is still out, and will be for a few weeks, but Kepler is hitting like MVP, Wallner is not hitting like a rookie and driving HR like we thought Gallo would.  Julien is working at-bats like a vet.  Pagan, despite his recent blown hold, has been looking much better.  Starters, outside of Ryan going on IL have been doing their thing.  

I am not predicting we will go crazy and start winning a ton, and win a playoff series, but we only have 14 games left against teams that are currently above .500, and 3 of them are the Rays who have been one of worst teams since July. Sure, we may lay some eggs like we have been known to do, but there is a good chance now that we get to feast on the bad teams, we can make up some games and finish close to where many thought we would, running away with a division making playoffs easy.

If we finish the season as many expected, winning division easy, and can win a playoff series, will that change your mind about the deadline, or how the team was built?  For much of the year we have talked about how we have underplayed expectations, and I agree we have, mainly due to weak offense.  However, at the end of the year we will see if the team did what was expected.  Yes, some will say we are not built for playoffs, but I disagree.  We have 4 guys that all have shown they can go 6 to 7 innings of low run ball.  We have at least 2 pen guys that can shut the door, and really when healthy a good lefty that can shut the door, and a few other guys that can hold their own.  What would be holding us back is our offense, but the young guys have started to step up, and if all healthy we have 4 young guys in Lewis, Julien, Wallner, and AK that could do damage.  Throw in a hot Kepler, healthy Polanco, and healthy Buck, that is 7 hitters that could be good.  CC is fielding well, but hitting terrible, but he still can come up with some hits, we could slot him down to like 8.  

The point is, we may end the season right where we thought, maybe just not the way we wanted.  The real question will be, how do we do in the playoffs, if we get swept again, then it is a failure, but if we get hot and win a series I think people will revisit their thoughts on the season. Coming out of the gates everyone was singing the Rays' praises, but now if they do not turn things around, they may not even make playoffs.  We play 162 for a reason. 

[MABB1959]

Absolutely!!!!!  It would be even better if Buxton came back and playing CF.   If he does not, I am not quite as confident.  Remember (in previous years) when we used to get all worked up when he was out or not in the lineup and the team was truly better with Buxton in the line-up?  This year is exactly opposite and now the team is worse with him in the lineup.  Absolutely devastating to think this way!

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I had thoughted of starting this specific topic.   I think for the broad base,  its what have you done for me lately, and getting to the playoffs, if they finish strong and a playoff win or even a series win will satisfy most of the fans and some of the Contributors on the board.  

With that being said, I think there are few individuals,  that want a complete overhaul,  and even a series win or a win in the playoffs would not placate their views.  For the most part those that have been most vocal have been fairly quiet on this 5 game winning stretch because this winning stretch doesn't help their point of view.  They are waiting for the failure and will jump again.   They will state this was a flawed team and we could have one it all if we had done more at the deadline or not signed Gallo and got a right handed bat and Relief pitcher to start the season.   They will continue to attack the weak points and failures of trades, even though I would argue the Twins have gotten more from trades than what they traded away.  

I like what the organization has done.   They have been robbing Peter to pay Paul, by trading draft picks and prospects to supplement the MLB team.  Over the 7 years they have put a pretty respectable team out most years.  They generally have not tanked a season even though I think they should have.    The 2022 and 2023  draft are adding a lot of solid prospects to the organization even with some fast risers such as Lee.   

At this trade deadline they were effectively in no mans land, with only a few teams selling and those that were having high demands.  

I hope the Twins continue to win, and I have been saying for a while I felt the bats would begin to heat up.  They were beginning to do the small things, and play more small ball which is allowing for more mistakes to happen and are starting to capitalize with men on base.   I hope lightening strikes and the Twins would win it all,  but being realistic,  there are 4 stacked teams - Rangers, Orioles, Rays and Atlanta.  The AL is going to be brutal.   Currently in a playoff scenario the Twins are looking at playing Toronto or Houston.  Neither is an easy road and this was never a year the Twins were truly going to be a contender most likely.  Hopefully the Twins continue on the hot streak and give more games for me to cheer on with my son.  That's what it is all about.  

[chpettit19]

Beating up on the bad teams is kind of an expectation for a division winning team so doing well the rest of the way won't impress me much. My biggest question with them has always been their in season adjustments. Carrying severely underperforming vets into August, or all year. Refusing to give young guys a shot until they're forced to. And never really addressing the bullpen. Gallo still being on this team is mind blowing to me. I give them credit for waiting out Kepler's cold streak to reach his current hot streak, but how will they handle his next cold streak with very little time left to bounce back to a hot streak?

1 series win wouldn't impress me a ton as they should be able to win 2 at home against the 3rd wild card team. Making more noise than that could get my attention, though. More so it will be about how they do it. If Kepler is on one of his cold streaks getting to, or in the postseason, do they bench him (assuming there's an option that's hitting well to replace him)? If Pagan is back to blowing lead after lead at the end of the year do they still turn to him in the 7th of a 1 run game in the playoffs to have him blow that lead? Will they adjust and show urgency in the playoffs? Will they start Jeffers behind the plate in every playoff game if he's still clearly the better offensive option or will they stubbornly continue to go every other game with Vazquez? 

I realize some of those things are more Rocco than FO, but, to me, they're all pretty well tied together. I believe Falvey, Levine, and Rocco's fates are all tied together. But how they go about having success the rest of the way is going to be a bigger part of my opinion than simply winning games.

[jorgenswest]

Looking forward to the central title and playoff series win. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Beating up on the bad teams is kind of an expectation for a division winning team so doing well the rest of the way won't impress me much. My biggest question with them has always been their in season adjustments. Carrying severely underperforming vets into August, or all year. Refusing to give young guys a shot until they're forced to. And never really addressing the bullpen. Gallo still being on this team is mind blowing to me. I give them credit for waiting out Kepler's cold streak to reach his current hot streak, but how will they handle his next cold streak with very little time left to bounce back to a hot streak?

1 series win wouldn't impress me a ton as they should be able to win 2 at home against the 3rd wild card team. Making more noise than that could get my attention, though. More so it will be about how they do it. If Kepler is on one of his cold streaks getting to, or in the postseason, do they bench him (assuming there's an option that's hitting well to replace him)? If Pagan is back to blowing lead after lead at the end of the year do they still turn to him in the 7th of a 1 run game in the playoffs to have him blow that lead? Will they adjust and show urgency in the playoffs? Will they start Jeffers behind the plate in every playoff game if he's still clearly the better offensive option or will they stubbornly continue to go every other game with Vazquez? 

I realize some of those things are more Rocco than FO, but, to me, they're all pretty well tied together. I believe Falvey, Levine, and Rocco's fates are all tied together. But how they go about having success the rest of the way is going to be a bigger part of my opinion than simply winning games.

Pagan, Kepler, Jeffers are giving the Twins more cover on keeping an underperforming Gallo (who did get 2 walks yesterday).  Gallo is an interesting case,  he plays good defense has been willing to play wherever the Twins need him, but the bat which started out decent has completely reverted back to the last 2 years performance.  Until Kiriloff gets back or expanded rosters I don't expect anything to happen with Gallo.  The organization is hoping his bat will begin to heat up with the rest of them.   Even still the Gallo experiment has not worked.  I would prefer if the Twins gave Williams or Prato a chance however we have seen many prospects struggle on their first call ups to the big leagues.  With Lewis, Larnach possibly Miranda also being other options that can be added to the big league team.   We seem to have plenty of bat options to supplement the big league team,  the relief pitching corps seems less full with only Funderburk seeming like a possible option.   

As much as stating a division winner should win a series or two,  we will be going against either Houston or the Blue Jays in the playoffs.  Those are both very good teams,  with much larger salaries than the Twins  (Blue Jays 227 million, $248 million for the Astros).   As a small market team we are always playing with 1 hand behind our back.  In order to win, like the Rays and continually be a strong team we have to excel well beyond the current norms,  for me that is the draft.  The Twins will have to consistently find more prospects than other teams and develop them for prospects for the team and trade capital.  

[Craig Arko]

Win the division, break the playoff losing streak, and look to improve in 2024. That would meet my objectives for this season.

[farmerguychris]

Yes - winning a series in the postseason would exceed my expectations for this year.  One step at a time, win a game, win a series, win it all?  

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Pagan, Kepler, Jeffers are giving the Twins more cover on keeping an underperforming Gallo (who did get 2 walks yesterday).  Gallo is an interesting case,  he plays good defense has been willing to play wherever the Twins need him, but the bat which started out decent has completely reverted back to the last 2 years performance.  Until Kiriloff gets back or expanded rosters I don't expect anything to happen with Gallo.  The organization is hoping his bat will begin to heat up with the rest of them.   Even still the Gallo experiment has not worked.  I would prefer if the Twins gave Williams or Prato a chance however we have seen many prospects struggle on their first call ups to the big leagues.  With Lewis, Larnach possibly Miranda also being other options that can be added to the big league team.   We seem to have plenty of bat options to supplement the big league team,  the relief pitching corps seems less full with only Funderburk seeming like a possible option.   

As much as stating a division winner should win a series or two,  we will be going against either Houston or the Blue Jays in the playoffs.  Those are both very good teams,  with much larger salaries than the Twins  (Blue Jays 227 million, $248 million for the Astros).   As a small market team we are always playing with 1 hand behind our back.  In order to win, like the Rays and continually be a strong team we have to excel well beyond the current norms,  for me that is the draft.  The Twins will have to consistently find more prospects than other teams and develop them for prospects for the team and trade capital.  

I agree that I don't think they'll move on from Gallo until Kirilloff is back, but that's unacceptable to me, and a mark against them. My concern has always been that they are incredibly slow to move off their plan or expected outcomes even when reality doesn't match their expectations. Pagan has to succeed in high leverage situations for an extended period of time before I give them credit for him. Kepler needs to sustain this hot hitting for the rest of the year. And Jeffers is a young player so I don't put him in the same category. Patience is a good attribute, but too much of it is bad. The real attribute you need is knowing when to move on and when to wait. They wait on almost everyone, and it doesn't often work out.

The Twins aren't a small market team. They're a mid-market team. They're 17th in the MLB revenue sharing market list. We need to quit letting them tell us they're small market. They aren't. Houston is 15th on that list. I don't care if those rosters have higher payrolls. You get 3 games at home. You should be able to win 2 out of 3 at home if you're a legit playoff team, no matter what your market size is. St Louis is 26th in market size. San Diego 24th. Tampa 19th. I don't accept the "small market" argument at all. Be better at running your team and quit making excuses. There's some self-made limitations to keeping high priced players, but there's also built in boosts for drafting, and they're handed "free" money every year. Build a team your fans want to see, and invest in, and they'll turn out. Invest in your team and the fans will follow.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I agree that I don't think they'll move on from Gallo until Kirilloff is back, but that's unacceptable to me, and a mark against them. My concern has always been that they are incredibly slow to move off their plan or expected outcomes even when reality doesn't match their expectations. Pagan has to succeed in high leverage situations for an extended period of time before I give them credit for him. Kepler needs to sustain this hot hitting for the rest of the year. And Jeffers is a young player so I don't put him in the same category. Patience is a good attribute, but too much of it is bad. The real attribute you need is knowing when to move on and when to wait. They wait on almost everyone, and it doesn't often work out.

The Twins aren't a small market team. They're a mid-market team. They're 17th in the MLB revenue sharing market list. We need to quit letting them tell us they're small market. They aren't. Houston is 15th on that list. I don't care if those rosters have higher payrolls. You get 3 games at home. You should be able to win 2 out of 3 at home if you're a legit playoff team, no matter what your market size is. St Louis is 26th in market size. San Diego 24th. Tampa 19th. I don't accept the "small market" argument at all. Be better at running your team and quit making excuses. There's some self-made limitations to keeping high priced players, but there's also built in boosts for drafting, and they're handed "free" money every year. Build a team your fans want to see, and invest in, and they'll turn out. Invest in your team and the fans will follow.

Chpettit, those are valid arguments,  however, stating they should run a better team and spend more money is not a Front office or manager decision.  That is ownership.   What the topic was is that many wanted the Front office and manager fired.   Should they be fired if the even have moderate success this year even being constrained by Ownership.  I would argue the front office is outperforming the structure that ownership has established.  Now we are not the Rays.  However we are also not Detroit, Kansas City, White Sox, Colorado, Oakland or Anaheim.   I don't know what the answer is.  It feels very similar to the constant arguments of the Iowa Hawkeyes and whether they should get rid of Kirk Ferentz for only be a steady performer with an outlier season ever 4-5 seasons.  You can make the change but odds are you won't find something better than what you currently had,  just look at the Cornhuskers who have continually tried to find the next best thing to turn around that program and continue to fall further and further behind.    Also who would want to take over a Front Office position that just got fired after winning the division?  Those are high expectations that many would not want to take on and you would likely not get the best candidates.   

[Vanimal46]

I still have concerns about this FO and Baldelli, but if they win the division easily and win a playoff series, they’ll be back. 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Chpettit, those are valid arguments,  however, stating they should run a better team and spend more money is not a Front office or manager decision.  That is ownership.   What the topic was is that many wanted the Front office and manager fired.   Should they be fired if the even have moderate success this year even being constrained by Ownership.  I would argue the front office is outperforming the structure that ownership has established.  Now we are not the Rays.  However we are also not Detroit, Kansas City, White Sox, Colorado, Oakland or Anaheim.   I don't know what the answer is.  It feels very similar to the constant arguments of the Iowa Hawkeyes and whether they should get rid of Kirk Ferentz for only be a steady performer with an outlier season ever 4-5 seasons.  You can make the change but odds are you won't find something better than what you currently had,  just look at the Cornhuskers who have continually tried to find the next best thing to turn around that program and continue to fall further and further behind.    

Spending more money is an ownership decision, but running the team better is a FO or manager task. I am currently in the "fire them" ranks. But I'm not blindly stating that they're terrible, or of the belief that it's easy to find someone better. They're an average FO and manager. They're in the middle 10 of the 30 teams. I'm just someone who wants more than "average," and is willing to take the risk of worse for the shot at better. To keep with football analogies, I am happier having Kirk Cousins than having Baker Mayfield. But I'd rather take a shot at finding a Mahomes than just stick with Kirk Cousins. I know the odds are better that I find the next Mayfield than the next Mahomes, but I'd still take that risk. And I'd keep taking that risk until I find the next Mahomes.

I'd rather be the Cornhuskers than the Hawkeyes. I don't love the college football analogy because there's so many teams, and so many other factors, that the differences between the top and bottom there are WAY bigger than the differences between the top and bottom of MLB teams. But I'd rather keep taking chances at finding the next best thing than stick with having no shot at ever reaching the peak of the mountain. Like I said, it's a tough analogy because it's nearly impossible to turn those programs into Ohio State, Georgia, or Alabama because Iowa and Nebraska are stepping stones to bigger and better things. They're the minor leagues in their own sport. But MLB teams are on much more even footing. You don't often see guys reach the very top of 1 org, succeed, and then get poached by another org. It does happen, but not like in college football.

I don't want to be Detroit, KC, CHW, Colorado, Oakland, or Anaheim. But I also don't want to continue being this .500ish team mess either. I want to be the Dodgers, Braves, or Astros. I don't think this FO can get us there. The next guys may not be able to get us to this .500ish mess. So I'd fire them, too. This team winning a wild card series played entirely at home likely won't change my mind. Winning more than that might, but it depends on how they do it. I have concerns over their regular season processes. But if they show a different process in the postseason this year I'd rethink things. If they overuse Vazquez, pinch hit endlessly, and go bonkers with platoons in the postseason I will be less likely to change my mind. If they only throw their 3 or 4 best relievers and never touch the bottom 4 outside of blowouts, and put their best 9 hitters in the lineup everyday and don't try to platoon 7 of them I would have to reassess my opinions. I look forward to the chance to see what they do in the postseason so we can pick this debate up again in November. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Spending more money is an ownership decision, but running the team better is a FO or manager task. I am currently in the "fire them" ranks. But I'm not blindly stating that they're terrible, or of the belief that it's easy to find someone better. They're an average FO and manager. They're in the middle 10 of the 30 teams. I'm just someone who wants more than "average," and is willing to take the risk of worse for the shot at better. To keep with football analogies, I am happier having Kirk Cousins than having Baker Mayfield. But I'd rather take a shot at finding a Mahomes than just stick with Kirk Cousins. I know the odds are better that I find the next Mayfield than the next Mahomes, but I'd still take that risk. And I'd keep taking that risk until I find the next Mahomes.

I'd rather be the Cornhuskers than the Hawkeyes. I don't love the college football analogy because there's so many teams, and so many other factors, that the differences between the top and bottom there are WAY bigger than the differences between the top and bottom of MLB teams. But I'd rather keep taking chances at finding the next best thing than stick with having no shot at ever reaching the peak of the mountain. Like I said, it's a tough analogy because it's nearly impossible to turn those programs into Ohio State, Georgia, or Alabama because Iowa and Nebraska are stepping stones to bigger and better things. They're the minor leagues in their own sport. But MLB teams are on much more even footing. You don't often see guys reach the very top of 1 org, succeed, and then get poached by another org. It does happen, but not like in college football.

I don't want to be Detroit, KC, CHW, Colorado, Oakland, or Anaheim. But I also don't want to continue being this .500ish team mess either. I want to be the Dodgers, Braves, or Astros. I don't think this FO can get us there. The next guys may not be able to get us to this .500ish mess. So I'd fire them, too. This team winning a wild card series played entirely at home likely won't change my mind. Winning more than that might, but it depends on how they do it. I have concerns over their regular season processes. But if they show a different process in the postseason this year I'd rethink things. If they overuse Vazquez, pinch hit endlessly, and go bonkers with platoons in the postseason I will be less likely to change my mind. If they only throw their 3 or 4 best relievers and never touch the bottom 4 outside of blowouts, and put their best 9 hitters in the lineup everyday and don't try to platoon 7 of them I would have to reassess my opinions. I look forward to the chance to see what they do in the postseason so we can pick this debate up again in November. 

The Astros got to their position by tanking for 3-4 years.  Based on that you wouldn't allow the current organization to switch philosophies and tank.  Dodgers are a good organization but also have a big market team.  Braves and Tampa Bay I think are the best examples of what we should try to emulate.  I actually think the Twins are on the right track especially if ownership continues to loosen the purse strings.  I understand the philosophy of trying to hit the next best thing,  the reality is likely though that we would most likely end up like the mid to late 90's Twins with no hope or future and be begging for the Falvey Levine days.  

[LastOnePicked]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

But how they go about having success the rest of the way is going to be a bigger part of my opinion than simply winning games.

Perfectly stated. I would love to see a Twins team play crisp, energetic and competitive baseball. I'd love sound decisions when it comes to pinch hitting and bullpen usage. I want this team to get fired up, and make a postseason dent.

I can see that it's possible. I couldn't see that a few weeks ago.

[terrydactyls]

I have a serious question (no snarkyness, tongue in cheek, or attempt at humor).

Is there any actual (provable) evidence that the Twins' ownership has determined a maximum spending ceiling for payroll?  I've seen lots of comments that the FO hav has set limits, but so far no actual proof.  It might be true, but it might also just be an assumption based on the newest top dog being a direct descendant of former "cheap" owners.

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

The Astros got to their position by tanking for 3-4 years.  Based on that you wouldn't allow the current organization to switch philosophies and tank.  Dodgers are a good organization but also have a big market team.  Braves and Tampa Bay I think are the best examples of what we should try to emulate.  I actually think the Twins are on the right track especially if ownership continues to loosen the purse strings.  I understand the philosophy of trying to hit the next best thing,  the reality is likely though that we would most likely end up like the mid to late 90's Twins with no hope or future and be begging for the Falvey Levine days.  

I wouldn't let this FO switch philosophies and tank, no. Again, I don't care about market size. It doesn't matter nearly as much as people act like it does. It's certainly nicer to be bigger, but I'm pretty sure you can survey Angels, Mets, Rays, and Cards fans and find that the Rays and Cards fans are much happier with their teams than the Angels and Mets despite being in significantly smaller markets. Well run teams succeed in every market size.

Ownership hasn't "loosened the purse strings." They're still in the middle of payroll sizes. They're a mid-market team spending to mid-league payroll sizes. San Diego loosened their purse strings. The Twins are operating the same way they have for decades when it comes to payroll size. The pure total of the payroll is an awful way to judge spending. If they jump into the top 10 in payroll size they'll have loosened the strings. This FO has just chosen to spend it differently by giving out bigger deals than previous regimes were willing to do.

I acknowledged that the odds are better that they'd be worse than Falvey and Levine. I don't care. You do. And that's totally fine. I don't think this FO can deliver on the "sustainable winner" idea. Others, including you it seems, do. That's why we have TD. To come and share our differing opinions. They've had 7 years. They've improved the org. They haven't been a disaster. But I think they've peaked. And their peak isn't high enough for me. So, as of now, I'd move on in an attempt to find someone with a higher peak, knowing full well I may find someone with a much lower peak.

[Muppet]

No. If the Twins win the world series 4 games to 1 it will be Rocco's fault that they lost one. 

But really, I think things are going well. The season seems to be taking a turn. Not just in games won, but the team is evolving. Julien, Wallner, Lewis, and AK jumping in and rocking it. They play to the teams strengths with great starting pitching and really good defense. They are heavily using platoons to help all of the lower people on the lineup shine as well as they can (knowing that they aren't superstars in the first place). Their patience is allowing people like Griffin Jax and (gulp) P*g*n get sturdy legs under them. For a team that has zero superstars, being in first place -- even in a terrible division-- indicates that management and the front office is doing a lot better than anyone gives them credit. 

Yes Gallo hits as well as I would, Buxton has laid an egg, Correa is having a terrible year, Kepler has been terrible for 75% of the season, there isn't enough relief pitching, blah, blah, blah... but this team, when they make it to the playoffs, might have a couple of surprises to pull out. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I agree with much of what has been stated in that some will employ recency bias to get on the Twins bandwagon and some won’t be convinced if we win the WS in six games because we lost two games.  I’m hoping that many more of us are closer to the middle.  I don’t really care about the “style” of their game.  I just want them to win games.  I am thrilled with a 1-0 game and thrilled with a 19-17 game, as long as we win.   From my perspective, the Twins are in a better position to win a playoff series than they have been in recent memory because of the quality of their pitching.  Lots of things can mess that up (injuries, sudden ineffectiveness, etc.) but I would rather be the team going into the playoffs with a bunch of good starters and a pretty solid bullpen than with what we had in 2019.  That was a nightmare because expectations were huge after the big HR season, but in order to win a series we needed to win 11-10, 9-8, and 13-12 because our pitching was a mess.  

I really like the “who would you rather be” argument about the Hawkeyes and Cornhuskers brought up by @IA Bean Counter.  History says it’s the Huskers, but present value says the Hawks, and the present is where we live.  Neither of those will likely ever be Alabama or Ohio State, but once in a while, they will beat them and in that we get to take a lot of joy.  It’s a lot like someday when the Twins beat one of the blue bloods of baseball in a series.  That will be fantastic.  

Bringing it back to baseball, I’m certain we are all happy to not be the Athletics or the Royals at the moment, but I think a better comparison is the Mets and Cubs.  Both teams spend a ton of money to build a flawed team, have no patience, underachieve, get frustrated tear the whole thing down, and start over.  Those two teams are lucky.  They have ample budgets to work with.  If the Twins operated that way with a mid-market budget,, they likely become the Athletics or the Royals — doomed to the bottom for the foreseeable future.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Also, as fans, we can’t let watching baseball be like daytrading the stock market.  It goes up and down a LOT on a daily (even hourly) basis, but it’s a long year, and if your portfolio goes up by 10% or more by the end of the year you have to be pleased with that, regardless how you got there.  

A baseball season is 162 games, and yet, when we were swept by the Royals (who got hot and went on a 7 game winning streak) people were outraged — SELL, SELL, SEll!  The three game sweep at the hands of the Royals is a blip on the radar at the end of the season, and the seven game winning streak by the Royals didn’t make them good - it was just a nice streak (and probably the highlight of their season) when they got hot.

Sorry for how long this has taken, but I will be thrilled when/if the Twins win a playoff series.  I will be thrilled when the Twins win the division.  I will also be thrilled when they score a run in the ninth inning to win a game.  I think that the front office has largely done a good job overall and I feel pretty good about it already.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

50 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I wouldn't let this FO switch philosophies and tank, no. Again, I don't care about market size. It doesn't matter nearly as much as people act like it does. It's certainly nicer to be bigger, but I'm pretty sure you can survey Angels, Mets, Rays, and Cards fans and find that the Rays and Cards fans are much happier with their teams than the Angels and Mets despite being in significantly smaller markets. Well run teams succeed in every market size.

Ownership hasn't "loosened the purse strings." They're still in the middle of payroll sizes. They're a mid-market team spending to mid-league payroll sizes. San Diego loosened their purse strings. The Twins are operating the same way they have for decades when it comes to payroll size. The pure total of the payroll is an awful way to judge spending. If they jump into the top 10 in payroll size they'll have loosened the strings. This FO has just chosen to spend it differently by giving out bigger deals than previous regimes were willing to do.

I acknowledged that the odds are better that they'd be worse than Falvey and Levine. I don't care. You do. And that's totally fine. I don't think this FO can deliver on the "sustainable winner" idea. Others, including you it seems, do. That's why we have TD. To come and share our differing opinions. They've had 7 years. They've improved the org. They haven't been a disaster. But I think they've peaked. And their peak isn't high enough for me. So, as of now, I'd move on in an attempt to find someone with a higher peak, knowing full well I may find someone with a much lower peak.

San Diego and the Mets have owners that have gone all out on payroll.  The Astros tanked and had 1st and early picks in most of the early 2010's to mid 2015 2016.  they went through over 5-6 years of putrid baseball to build a foundation for what they have.  I can tell you most cards fans are not happy with their season or their future.  With an aging Goldshmidt and middle aged Arenado they are hoping their strong farm system can reload the organization.  Angels and Mets fans are frustrated too.   Its a tough game.   Of the 4 teams you mentioned only 1 fan base is happy right now and the Angels are destined to a decade long rebuild now.  

We do all have various views, I just think the odds of the Twins effectively find another management situation on the level of Tampa Bay is slim to none.  Their margin of error could also fall by the wayside.  The 2022 and 2023 drafts will determine in the next few years the future success of the organization and my feelings it is a good front office.  If they provide a solid foundation for future stars and pitching pipeline,  it will give more than enough runway for the Front office (similar to what happened to Atlanta, San Diego ect)  Those teams were built from exceptional drafting.  We appear to have ample prospects in AAA to continue to give enough bats for the near term for success.  We have some trade chips, and we have a solid rotation for the next couple years to build around (Lopez, Ryan, Ober) and I still think an elite closer in Duran.  We should hope for a great end of the year and specifically for Maeda and Gray, which could allow for additional high round draft picks in the 2024 draft.   

The 2019 and 2021 drafts were both exceptional drafts even if they were semi raided to build up the current mlb team.  The 2022 and 2023 drafts look even better currently.    

[chpettit19]

22 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

San Diego and the Mets have owners that have gone all out on payroll.  The Astros tanked and had 1st and early picks in most of the early 2010's to mid 2015 2016.  they went through over 5-6 years of putrid baseball to build a foundation for what they have.  I can tell you most cards fans are not happy with their season or their future.  With an aging Goldshmidt and middle aged Arenado they don't have a ton of hope on the horizon either.  Angels and Mets fans are frustrated too.   Its a tough game.   Of the 4 teams you mentioned only 1 fan base is happy right now and the Angels are destined to a decade long rebuild now.  

We do all have various views, I just think the odds of the Twins effectively find another management situation on the level of Tampa Bay is slim to none.  Their margin of error could also fall by the wayside.  The 2022 and 2023 drafts will determine in the next few years the future success of the organization and my feelings it is a good front office.  If they provide a solid foundation for future stars and pitching pipeline,  it will give more than enough runway for the Front office (similar to what happened to Atlanta, San Diego ect)  Those teams were built from exceptional drafting.  We appear to have ample prospects in AAA to continue to give enough bats for the near term for success.  We have some trade chips, and we have a solid rotation for the next couple years to build around (Lopez, Ryan, Ober) and I still think an elite closer in Duran.  We should hope for a great end of the year and specifically for Maeda and Gray, which could allow for additional high round draft picks in the 2024 draft.   

The 2019 and 2021 drafts were both exceptional drafts even if they were semi raided to build up the current mlb team.  The 2022 and 2023 drafts look even better currently.    

Not sure what you're getting at in the first paragraph. There are numerous ways to build competitive, sustainable rosters, yes. Having a huge payroll doesn't give you that big of a leg up, yes. That's my point. Good FOs can build sustainable teams in a variety of different ways, and in any market size. Yeah, this year is incredibly disappointing for Cards fans, but they've been a model franchise for a very long time, and the odds are they'll be right back at the top of that division very soon.

The Twins don't have to be the Rays. There are a whole bunch of teams run better than the Twins right now. And they're run in a variety of ways. I don't know how many times I have to say I acknowledge that it's easier to find someone worse than someone better. I don't view the system the same as you. They have very few star level prospects in the system. Turning out more league average guys and trying to mix and match your way to them being good enough to truly compete isn't a process I think is sustainable. Yes, the 2022 and 2023 drafts will determine the future. But they've had 7 years before this with some really high picks to determine the present. And the present isn't good enough for me. 7 years is an incredibly long time in the world of professional sports. I don't think they've been a disaster. I think they've done quite well at finding big league players in the later rounds. I think they've been terrible at finding stars.

The question of this thread is if a successful last 2 months, and a wild card series win, would change my mind on the FO. My answer remains "likely not." But how they go about doing things could change my mind. But I'm not going to ever be on board with "well it could be worse so just don't try for better" as a reason for keeping a FO or player around. Winning a historically bad division while struggling to stay above .500 for 2/3 of the season when you've had 7 years to implement your strategy, and build your team, is not impressive. Could it be worse? Absolutely. But there's way more room above them for it to be better, too. 

I think we've hit the end of our road, though. You don't want to risk getting worse, and believe in this FO more than me. I want to take a risk for greatness, and believe this FO has some faulty processes that I believe lower their peak. Reasonable minds can disagree. We can certainly agree we hope they win a playoff game or 2 this year, though!

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

41 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

 They have very few star level prospects in the system. Turning out more league average guys and trying to mix and match your way to them being good enough to truly compete isn't a process I think is sustainable. Y

Chpettit -  I agreed with most of what you said I just want to look at the depth and who I see as star level prospects.   Currently Julien's bat is a star if he can keep it going.  A healthy Lewis is also a star, and Brooks Lee is well on his way to being a potential All Star.   Can we hit on another Julien - with a Prato, Williams, or other AAA player - possibly but one of your gripes and others is they have to be given the opportunity.  If Kiriloff can stay healthy that that is another potential star, Then can a Miranda or Larnach get over their recent struggles and become stars.    Wallner could be a star but that is questionable. Most likely 1-2 of those become stars,  if 3 or more become stars this team is set with the other prospects being fine if they are league average.  

Then we come to Jenkins, Winokur and other bats in the system that are still progressing up to the majors.   The pitching pipeline has lots of potential #3 pitchers especially in the lower ranks.  There is value in finding those types of players its why Cleveland has been as successful as they have been.  We do need a star pitcher to come up through the system.  That is either a prospect outperforming or a Priellip, Raya,  Soto . . . or a possibly healthy Matt Canterino (has the arm talent- hasnt shown the health)  taking that mantle.  

Yes lets hope for a good end of the season and some (any :) )  success in the post season.  

[wabene]

Yes, very much so 

[Craig Arko]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

I have a serious question (no snarkyness, tongue in cheek, or attempt at humor).

Is there any actual (provable) evidence that the Twins' ownership has determined a maximum spending ceiling for payroll?  I've seen lots of comments that the FO hav has set limits, but so far no actual proof.  It might be true, but it might also just be an assumption based on the newest top dog being a direct descendant of former "cheap" owners.

I’m pretty sure this is entirely supposition. I don’t remember ever seeing anything about a hard limit, and if there were, they (Twins FO) would certainly never publish it.

[NotAboutWinning]

I would be very happy with a strong finish and a playoff win! I would be ecstatic with a playoff series win!! That is the team the Pohlads and FO built. They did not go all in and build a WS team.

If they win and do not go all in next year, that would be a huge disappointment!

[jaimedude]

Winning a playoff game would be enough for me to break the record loss streak. Winning a series would be nice and icing on the cake for this season. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

26 minutes ago, NotAboutWinning said:

I would be very happy with a strong finish and a playoff win! I would be ecstatic with a playoff series win!! That is the team the Pohlads and FO built. They did not go all in and build a WS team.

If they win and do not go all in next year, that would be a huge disappointment!

We can always take the Angels approach . . .   Steady Eddie and give as many opportunities at the apple and waiting for something magical to happen is likely our best opportunity.  

[chpettit19]

33 minutes ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Chpettit -  I agreed with most of what you said I just want to look at the depth and who I see as star level prospects.   Currently Julien's bat is a star if he can keep it going.  A healthy Lewis is also a star, and Brooks Lee is well on his way to being a potential All Star.   Can we hit on another Julien - with a Prato, Williams, or other AAA player - possibly but one of your gripes and others is they have to be given the opportunity.  If Kiriloff can stay healthy that that is another potential star, Then can a Miranda or Larnach get over their recent struggles and become stars.    Wallner could be a star but that is questionable. Most likely 1-2 of those become stars,  if 3 or more become stars this team is set with the other prospects being fine if they are league average.  

Then we come to Jenkins, Winokur and other bats in the system that are still progressing up to the majors.   The pitching pipeline has lots of potential #3 pitchers especially in the lower ranks.  There is value in finding those types of players its why Cleveland has been as successful as they have been.  We do need a star pitcher to come up through the system.  That is either a prospect outperforming or a Priellip, Raya,  Soto . . . or a possibly healthy Matt Canterino (has the arm talent- hasnt shown the health)  taking that mantle.  

Yes lets hope for a good end of the season and some (any :) )  success in the post season.  

Agreed on Julien and Lewis. I think Brooks Lee has an All Star season in him, but as a 3B I see mostly just a solid regular. Certainly useful, and a very nice outcome, but I don't see a star. I'm not sold on any of the older AAA players being stars. Would be surprise to even get an MLB regular out of them. I would be giving them opportunities over the likes of Gallo right now, though. Agreed Kirilloff has star potential. Don't see it in Miranda or Larnach. Think Wallner Ks to much to ever be a star, but wouldn't be shocked by an All Star season in his best year.

Jenkins looks like a natural. Really hoping to see him go Jackson Holiday on things and race up to AA by the end of next year. But all of those teenage to 20 year old kids are miles and miles away. Every system has a handful of teenagers with sky high potential. Until they reach AA, and have some semblance of success there, they're just not close enough for me to have any faith in them even reaching the majors. The pitching is where I see the biggest hole. Absolutely value in developing #3 starters, but you need #1s and 2s to win in the postseason. I loved the Prielipp pick, but man is that kid going through it with his elbow. Raya is nice looking, but getting absolutely shelled right now. Very young, and clearly has talent, but he's not a big kid and the deck is stacked against him. Soto is intriguing, but, again, so far away. Canterino I think becomes the number 2 to Duran's number 1 in the pen. Hoping at some point next year. I think his starting days are over. Too old to take the time to build up that inning count and to be able to trust his arm holding up. I put him in the pen in the AFL this year, and give him a legit chance to make the Twins out of camp next year. I'd love to see him, Jax, and Duran be the Herrera, Davis, Holland of the Twins for the next couple years.

But, to tie this into the FO talk, I think their obsession with platooning actually holds some of these guys back, and stops them from being stars. I have no idea if Kirilloff, Julien, or Wallner will be able to hit major league lefties well enough to just plant at the top of the order everyday, but I do know never letting them see them isn't going to improve their chances. I want 5 guys that you put in the 1 through 5 hole everyday. No scheduled off days. No platooning at the top of the lineup. 5 guys who play everyday, and hit in the same spots everyday. They'll tell you when they need a day off. I don't subscribe to the idea that hitting 2 one day and 4 the next effects the guys that much, but there's no need to move them around if you have 5 guys like that who can slot in. Maybe it's Julien-Lewis-Kirilloff-Correa-Wallner. Maybe those 5 are good enough to anchor a championship lineup for the next 5 years. I have no faith that this leadership team would ever just put them in those 5 spots and let it rip, though. They have to tinker (I don't think it's just Rocco making lineups on his own). They have to "play the numbers." I'm fine if you go with 2 or 3 platoon guys and your catcher in the lower spots. But if you're platooning in the top 5 spots you either don't have a good enough offense, or you're over managing. 

I think they draft pretty well. I think they have some very talented guys. But I think they shoot themselves in the foot with all their extra tinkering. Platooning is nice and all, but pinch hitters are significantly worse than guys who were in the lineup to start. Bringing in a cold bat to face elite relievers at the end of games may give you the platoon advantage, but that advantage is washed away by the disadvantage of it being a pinch hitter. Will they adjust away from that in the playoffs? That's what I'll be watching. It's why I don't like their ceiling. They are good at a number of things, but, what seems to me at least, their core processes are flawed in a way that holds back their skills in other areas.

[ewen21]

4 hours ago, Trov said:

The real question will be, how do we do in the playoffs, if we get swept again, then it is a failure

I wish Michael Cuddyer understood this after the 2010 season.  He proclaimed 2010 to be a "successful season" because we "won the division"

This was a guy who the organization relied upon heavily to spread the message to the press and the fans  I saw red when I read that quote.  This mentality reared its ugly head again when we were swept by the Yankees for the third time.  Rocco told the press, "I am not frustrated at all"

 

These kinds of tone deaf comments from the clubhouse tells me all I need to know.  The goal has been to reach the playoffs.  The rationale being if you get there you have "a chance"

The problem is, if the goal is reach the playoffs then it is safe to ride off quietly into the sunset, because as Michael "Voice of the Twins" Cuddyer told us; winning the division = successful season

With that mentality winning in the playoffs is all but impossible.  In 2010 we had the deepest roster we'd had since the WS winning teams and they literally wilted to the Yankees without putting up a fight.  It was disgraceful for Rocco to say what he said after that series. Sure, he wasn't frustrated since that was his first gig and he had no connection to the painful history.  

[ewen21]

Every single team in our division besides us has made it to the WS in the last 20 years.  Just sayin