Is Josh Hader the Twins Missing Piece?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have a couple of key areas where they need to add prior to Tuesday’s Major League Baseball trade deadline. While a right-handed bat still makes sense, the bullpen getting reinforcements is a must as well. Is Josh Hader the missing piece?

 

Image courtesy of Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports

Derek Falvey kicked off the Twins trade season by flipping Jorge Lopez to the Miami Marlins for Dylan Floro. Minnesota pulled the band-aid off a move that blew up. A year ago, the Twins sent Cade Povich and Yennier Cano to the Baltimore Orioles for their all-star closer. Unfortunately, Lopez never found it with the Twins. Getting a fresh start in Miami could help him regain form, and Floro gets an opportunity to find his strong peripherals with a new team.

No matter how much the Twins benefit from Floro pitching innings rather than Lopez, they unquestionably need additional help in relief. Caleb Thielbar will return from the injured list later this week, but Brock Stewart is apparently hiding in a bunker somewhere, yet to be heard from after being shut down due to maintenance prior to the All-Star Game. That has left Rocco Baldelli trying to find ways for Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax to do everything on a near nightly basis.

If the Twins are going to add a reliever, a lefty makes some sense, and swinging big would define Josh Hader.

The San Diego Padres were reportedly turning away interest in both Hader and Blake Snell, but the team has continued to look like they’ll miss the playoffs, and both are free agents after the season. The Twins starting rotation doesn’t have room for Snell, even though he’s been great, but Hader would fit wonderfully at the back of a bullpen needing some help.

Having pitched for the Milwaukee Brewers over six seasons, Hader is more than familiar with the Midwest. He has never worked in the American League, but that could benefit both him and the Twins with opposing batters being less familiar with him.

After a speed bump of a year in 2022, in which he was still an all-star, Hader has re-established his strong performances. Although he posted a 5.22 ERA last season, he had a 3.45 FIP to go along with it, and was largely victimized by the longball. Across 40 games and 38 innings for San Diego this season, Hader owns a ridiculous 0.95 ERA and has saved 24 games. He has a 13.7 K/9 and has allowed just a single home run.

To put it simply, he has been lights out.

With that reality, his services aren’t going to come cheap, even for a couple of months as a rental. Fangraphs recently predicted Minnesota would land Hader, and that the cost would be pitching prospects Marco Raya and Brent Headrick. Raya is among one of the most promising arms in the system, and Headrick had already made his major-league debut. Raya would be the big piece, but both represent what should be seen as consistent major league talent.

Recently Cody Christie looked at three bold predictions for Minnesota at the deadline, and Hader’s acquisition was among them. He wondered whether that price was too steep, and that is definitely the decision the Twins front office must weigh. Even if he is a name they are considering, the cost of how much his impact is felt has to be deemed significant.

Also worthy of consideration with Hader is how he would adjust Baldelli’s pecking order. Minnesota has not been rigid with save opportunities and the use of Duran, but he has been the de facto closer. In grabbing Hader, Duran would likely be bumped from the ninth inning. That could be disappointing given the impact of saves in arbitration, but also would allow the flamethrower to be a true fireman and pitch during the highest -leverage spots before the game ends.

It’s becoming wildly evident that relying on Duran and Jax as much as the Twins have had to is wearing on them. The former has been atrocious in July, and both often enter with little breathing room given an offense failing to produce on a routine basis. Maybe a middle reliever costs less, but that doesn’t solve a need to give the best arms some help. It’s entirely possible that pair would welcome another top-tier addition, in part to save their own productivity.

Maybe Minnesota sees an acquisition of Hader as an opportunity to open dialogue for the future as well. The Twins have not traditionally spent much (see: anything) on the bullpen, but Hader being retained on an extension or through free agency could change that. Playing at $14.1 million this year, it’s not crazy to think he could wind up with somewhere near Edwin Diaz money in his new deal ($21.3M AAV). The Chicago White Sox have shown that paying handsomely for a bullpen doesn’t necessarily work out, but it’s clear the relief group needs help.

It remains to be seen how big of a swing the Twins take on the bullpen. Adding to the middle of the group provides some needed depth, but it's a significant addition that the group gets better from the top down. Hader being added may hurt, but he generates extra wins, it could make everything feel a bit better.

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[1991]

Absolutely could use him.  The Twins are 4th worst in the league with 21 out of 40 some chances.  Hader has 4.  If he converts half of the Twins opportunities, we're looking much better.  I don;t think Duran is ready to be a dominant closer yet.

[Peter]

They need to make this happen!!! But who would twins give up?

[1991]

Blown saves that is.

 

[terrydactyls]

33 minutes ago, Peter said:

They need to make this happen!!! But who would twins give up?

The article says Raya and Headrick.  Because the Twins farm system is so deplete of top-level starting pitchers, I would hope an extension for Hadar is part of the trade conversation.

[jorgenswest]

The premise of the headline is there is one missing piece. There are several. I would not be a buyer this year. If they want to pursuer Hader in the off-season and sign him they can do so without giving up any young players. 

[CRF]

It would be nice to get him, but we need a lot more than Hader. 

[NotAboutWinning]

It would be nice if we had only one missing piece 🙃

[MABB1959]

Why can’t we have both a bat and BP help?  Figure out who could be traded or can they do cash considerations   All though after the last 2 games I don’t think either would get them too far or even into the playoffs this season. So maybe stand Pat, see what we have and SPEND like crazy in the offseason.  But seems they need a FO that can recognize talent and a medical staff to make sure we don’t waste money on soon to be injured players.  

[JoeCool]

Hader is one of many missing pieces, but the Twins front office is competent, but too conservative in a state that is craving for a championship, but has no hope of getting one unless the roster is addressed with some more elements of risk/reward.

The Hader for Maya and Hendrix is a no brainer. He would be a massive pairing with Duran in a way the championship Royals won their last title.

But…..

We need bats and even with a great staff…. A true #1.  

A trade that is too good to be true but won’t happen is Buxton, Gray, Kepler, and Austin Martin for Ohtani and Renfroe. The Twins lineup instantly can compete consistently and the Angels get a balance of today and the future with something their fan base can live with. The Twins also get a true #1 ace putting Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan up against #2 and #3 pitchers and make room for more playing time of Royce Lewis and Eduardo Julien. Placing Lewis in the outfield along with Renfroe instantly upgrades he lineup especially against lefties and keeps the defense strong. In 2024 we would not have Ohatani but would have extra dollars for a free agent starting pitcher with Kepler, Gallo, Gray, and Buxton off the books.  That is around $40 million in salaries off the books and not far from what is needed to extend Ohtani, but I think sinking that many dollars into one player is a massive risk as he ages. With young superstar potential talents like Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Eduardo Julien, and now Walter Jenkins just starting their MLB careers or moving through the system that money is better spent on extending those players in a team friendly way as the Atlanta Braves did with Ronald Acuna Jr., Spencer Strider and Sean Murphy and building around them with complementary pieces.  

I don’t see this trade happening, but Hader is one of many missing pieces. This trade considers making a legitimate run in 2023 without sacrificing the future while also appeasing Halo fans/Trout for today and the future.  It would be nice to see a more aggressive approach to filling the many needs from the lineup to bullpen to even a true #1 ace over just a bullpen piece. 

A World Series title goal rather than make the playoffs and hope would be nice. We have lost a record number of playoff games in a row from a “make the playoffs and hope” mode. 

[gman]

This team is not even close to being a world series contender. I would trade players, but more as a seller than title contender. I certainly wouldn't trade two top prospects for two months of a rental.

[pierre75275]

Man, I can't hardly imagine a more dominant bullpen than Duran, Hader, Jax, a healthy Stewart, Thielbar, JB, with Floro and Pagan (in low level situations only) with the starters we have. 

I would put that pitching staff against anyone.

If the offense is merely average, that's a team that should win a lot of games.

[Ricky Vaughn]

Their is no missing piece. Its more like a missing team. If your never in the lead why do you need a closer?

[MABB1959]

9 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

The premise of the headline is there is one missing piece. There are several. I would not be a buyer this year. If they want to pursuer Hader in the off-season and sign him they can do so without giving up any young players. 

The last 3 games were indescribable and I can’t see any positives at all.  Which of the everyday Twins would make a lineup with a contender?   

[JD-TWINS]

S.D. doesn’t appear to be selling - not stars anyway. They are near the Top of NL in ERA.

I think we target a couple guys behind Hader that appear to be solid. They need LH hitting………Soto bats LH…….after that it’s Cronenworth at .210 and Carpenter at .165. They seem to want to compete down the stretch.

I’d get a controlled reliever LH - Tom Cosgrove sub 2.00 ERA & .893 WHIP or RH - Steven Wilson sub 3.00 ERA & 1.047 WHIP. We need depth that performs (healthy Stewart type) not closers. If we had another Thielbar & another Jax we’d be golden.

Hand/Suter/Raley/……..a number of other guys that are the 2-4 options on their staff.

We could go as strong as Polanco & Larnach or maybe Larnach & a prospect like Miller (SS) at A or AA?

Winder - Moran are guys that another team may take on as a duo hoping/expecting one to pan out.

[LyleCole]

Trading for a relief pitcher gives me the shivers.  The fact is, the Twins have been much better SELLERS at the trade deadline than BUYERS.  Last year's trade deadline moves will probably be a net loss for the team and previous history essentially demonstrates the same.

Looking at just relievers at the deadline, we can go back to 2010 and the (in)famous Matt Capps trade.   While I think there is some tendency to overvalue Wilson Ramos, the catching prospect we gave up for Capps, he had a long MLB baseball career with the Nationals and other teams, putting up 9 solid years with a career OPS+ of 102.  Capps actually pitched reasonably well in helping the Twins into the playoffs, posting a 2.20 ERA and 16 saves in 27 appearances in the "rental year".  But he was much less effective in the two follow on seasons for the Twins.

The Twins repeated the closer deadline trade in 2015, trading Chih-Wei Hu to the Rays for veteran closer Kevin Jepsen.  Jepsen actually pitched reasonably well (statistically) in his rental season, posting a excellent 1.61 ERA, and 10 saves in 17 appearances.  The Molitor 2015 season was the last effective year of Glen Perkins, but Jepsen couldn't get anyone out the next season so the only thing that made this trade a non-negative is the prospects we gave up for Jepsen did not pan out.

The Twins made a pair of reliever acquisitions in the 2019 BOMBA season, getting Sergio Romo from the Marlins and Sam Dyson from the Giants.  

Dyson was almost immediately sidelined with arm problems (similar to the trade for Mahle last season) and just was not effective, with an ineffectiveness that led to 2019 being Sam's final season in the major leagues.  Romo was just a marginal MLB reliever in his tenure with the Twins.  He posted near his career average ERA in 2019, 3.18 and that jumped to 4.05 in 20 appearances in 2020.  By then he was a 38 year old player who was just a low end player his final two season in the major leagues.

Again, the only thing that made these two trades not be a loss is that Davis and Lewin Diaz, the primary prospects we traded away never established themselves as major league hitters.  

I think these trends, along with the 2022 trade deadline moves raises two questions:

1.   Is the Twins staff doing a proper due diligence approach to the health (including mental!) of the pitchers they are acquiring?   

2.  Is there something to the surface level trend of the reliever we acquire being somewhat effective right away, but then having that effectiveness drop off when the next season starts?

Josh Hader is in the final year of his contract and is being paid $14 million.  Any team evaluating a trade for Hader is acquiring him as a short term rental.  The key to the trade is the value you need to surrender.  Would the Twins give up Tanner Schobel and David Festa?  Would that be enough to get the deal done?  

I probably would do that trade.  But that would be the upper bound of the deal.

 

[Hashim]

20 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

The article says Raya and Headrick.  Because the Twins farm system is so deplete of top-level starting pitchers, I would hope an extension for Hadar is part of the trade conversation.

Why would we give up Raya, the only high end starter in our farm system. Raya should only be traded for an ace or a great position player. 

[Patzky]

17 hours ago, gman said:

This team is not even close to being a world series contender. I would trade players, but more as a seller than title contender. I certainly wouldn't trade two top prospects for two months of a rental.

Agree that a lot of kidding pieces make lineup setting like a game of whack a mole. Yesterday you saw the defense (other than Castro) improve and the nats went to sleep. Saturday you had Polanco at third and Julien at second, plus no Taylor.. and while the runs came in drives and late, the Royals thrives on Hit Em Where They Ain't. Choose your poison, now that the pitching is fracturing, lose 2-1 or 10-8? Well 10-8 hides one weakness and puts fannies in seats.

[LewFordLives]

Having Hader in a Twins uniform would be awesome, but as others have pointed out.... is he the final missing piece? I think most of us would say: "no". I definitely wouldn't give up Raya and Headrick for a rental. Maybe if they had a plethora of good pitching prospects, but they don't.  

 

[Aggies7]

Just need that one more piece!

[Blyleven2011]

1 .     FO won't trade for just a rental player  .  They want some control , at least a year beyond this season  ...

2 .    Twins need to many pieces to fix this team this year , retool for 2024 and trade ( one of gray or maeda )  , dfa Gallo  or package him with Kepler,  we don't need the depth for the final 2 months  ...let the prospects play ....

We aren't contenders and got to stop being pretenders  .... 

It also isn't just the players  that are underperforming , the coaching staff needs to be have a overhaul too ...

[RpR]

54 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

12 .    Twins need to many pieces to fix this team this year , retool for 2024 and trade ( one of gray or maeda )  , dfa Gallo  or package him with Kepler,  we don't need the depth for the final 2 months  ...let the prospects play ....

We aren't contenders and got to stop being pretenders  .... 

 

and become just plain last place losers, brilliant.

[Blyleven2011]

14 hours ago, RpR said:

and become just plain last place losers, 

The Twins have been losers for the last 3 seasons  , get a grip on it , for some reason  you think Kepler should stay , if it wasn't for his defense he wouldn't be here , his streaky hitting has hurt the team more than it has helped ...

I know Kepler is your favorite player and probably the best rightfielder since Oliva but he just isn't a offensive producer to stay on the team , he'll be gone at the end of the season for sure  and you can root for him on another team ...

Get use to it ...