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Derek Falvey kicked off the Twins trade season by flipping Jorge Lopez to the Miami Marlins for Dylan Floro. Minnesota pulled the band-aid off a move that blew up. A year ago, the Twins sent Cade Povich and Yennier Cano to the Baltimore Orioles for their all-star closer. Unfortunately, Lopez never found it with the Twins. Getting a fresh start in Miami could help him regain form, and Floro gets an opportunity to find his strong peripherals with a new team.
No matter how much the Twins benefit from Floro pitching innings rather than Lopez, they unquestionably need additional help in relief. Caleb Thielbar will return from the injured list later this week, but Brock Stewart is apparently hiding in a bunker somewhere, yet to be heard from after being shut down due to maintenance prior to the All-Star Game. That has left Rocco Baldelli trying to find ways for Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax to do everything on a near nightly basis.
If the Twins are going to add a reliever, a lefty makes some sense, and swinging big would define Josh Hader.
The San Diego Padres were reportedly turning away interest in both Hader and Blake Snell, but the team has continued to look like they’ll miss the playoffs, and both are free agents after the season. The Twins starting rotation doesn’t have room for Snell, even though he’s been great, but Hader would fit wonderfully at the back of a bullpen needing some help.
Having pitched for the Milwaukee Brewers over six seasons, Hader is more than familiar with the Midwest. He has never worked in the American League, but that could benefit both him and the Twins with opposing batters being less familiar with him.
After a speed bump of a year in 2022, in which he was still an all-star, Hader has re-established his strong performances. Although he posted a 5.22 ERA last season, he had a 3.45 FIP to go along with it, and was largely victimized by the longball. Across 40 games and 38 innings for San Diego this season, Hader owns a ridiculous 0.95 ERA and has saved 24 games. He has a 13.7 K/9 and has allowed just a single home run.
To put it simply, he has been lights out.
With that reality, his services aren’t going to come cheap, even for a couple of months as a rental. Fangraphs recently predicted Minnesota would land Hader, and that the cost would be pitching prospects Marco Raya and Brent Headrick. Raya is among one of the most promising arms in the system, and Headrick had already made his major-league debut. Raya would be the big piece, but both represent what should be seen as consistent major league talent.
Recently Cody Christie looked at three bold predictions for Minnesota at the deadline, and Hader’s acquisition was among them. He wondered whether that price was too steep, and that is definitely the decision the Twins front office must weigh. Even if he is a name they are considering, the cost of how much his impact is felt has to be deemed significant.
Also worthy of consideration with Hader is how he would adjust Baldelli’s pecking order. Minnesota has not been rigid with save opportunities and the use of Duran, but he has been the de facto closer. In grabbing Hader, Duran would likely be bumped from the ninth inning. That could be disappointing given the impact of saves in arbitration, but also would allow the flamethrower to be a true fireman and pitch during the highest -leverage spots before the game ends.
It’s becoming wildly evident that relying on Duran and Jax as much as the Twins have had to is wearing on them. The former has been atrocious in July, and both often enter with little breathing room given an offense failing to produce on a routine basis. Maybe a middle reliever costs less, but that doesn’t solve a need to give the best arms some help. It’s entirely possible that pair would welcome another top-tier addition, in part to save their own productivity.
Maybe Minnesota sees an acquisition of Hader as an opportunity to open dialogue for the future as well. The Twins have not traditionally spent much (see: anything) on the bullpen, but Hader being retained on an extension or through free agency could change that. Playing at $14.1 million this year, it’s not crazy to think he could wind up with somewhere near Edwin Diaz money in his new deal ($21.3M AAV). The Chicago White Sox have shown that paying handsomely for a bullpen doesn’t necessarily work out, but it’s clear the relief group needs help.
It remains to be seen how big of a swing the Twins take on the bullpen. Adding to the middle of the group provides some needed depth, but it's a significant addition that the group gets better from the top down. Hader being added may hurt, but he generates extra wins, it could make everything feel a bit better.
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