This Rotation Can Be Really Good in October

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota's playoff losing streak is well documented throughout Twins Territory, but fans might have a reason for optimism in 2023. The Twins starting staff might be built for October success.

Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Major League Baseball's playoff format allows for some unique scenarios to transpire. Some teams are built for the regular season and can compile wins on their way to October. Other teams limp into the playoffs and must find a way to get hot in the season's most important moments. Last season, the Philadelphia Phillies finished with an 87-75 record, which placed them in third place in the AL East. However, the team got hot at the right time and rode their success to a World Series berth. Baseball has an element of luck, and lesser teams can steal series from teams that are perceived to be better. 

The Twins are a long way from being a lock to make the playoffs, but their pitching staff might have the necessary pieces to end the team's playoff losing streak. Entering play this weekend, FanGraphs projected the Twins had a 62.8% chance to win the AL Central. It seems unlikely for the AL Central to get more than one playoff qualifier, so winning the division is the only path to October. Under the current format, the Twins would host a three-game series at Target Field against the lowest-seeded playoff team if they win the division. There's no question the Twins have been inconsistent through the season's first half, but the club might have built a pitching staff that can be successful in October. 

Minnesota entered the year with perceived depth in the starting rotation. The team acquired Pablo Lopez in a trade with the Marlins, pushing Bailey Ober and Louie Varland to Triple-A. Eventually, the Twins needed to utilize that depth, with Tyler Mahle undergoing Tommy John surgery and Kenta Maeda missing time with a right triceps strain. Ober has performed well since joining the rotation and looks like a middle-of-the-rotation option for the next decade. Maeda has also returned and performed admirably since coming off the IL. Health will always play a factor late in the season, but the top of the Twins rotation can match up nicely with other playoff contenders. 

Sonny Gray
Gray is heading to his third All-Star Game after a dominating first half. In 99 2/3 innings, he posted a 2.89 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a 101-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He leads the major leagues with a 0.3 HR/9 and ranks fourth in the AL according to fWAR. Health has been critical to Gray's first-half performance, as he is only 20 innings shy of what he pitched last year with the Twins. Minnesota can attempt to organize the rotation for the playoffs, but Gray in the top spot makes sense with his previous playoff experience. Gray is heading toward a decent payday this winter, but he hopes to bring some October success to Minnesota before hitting free agency. 

Pablo Lopez
Fans' view of Lopez is skewed because Luis Arraez has performed well since the trade. He ended the first half ranking among the top-10 pitchers in baseball according to fWAR and became an injury replacement for the All-Star Game. Lopez ranks in the 97th percentile in Chase Rate while also ranking well in Average Exit Velocity (77th), Hard Hit % (69th), xBA (84th), xSLG (80th), BB% (74th), and Whiff% (78th). He would be the top starting pitching option on many teams, including his former club, the Marlins. If Lopez continues to pitch this well, he will match up nicely with any other team's Game 2 starter in the playoffs. 

Joe Ryan
Ryan's final start before the All-Star break didn't go as planned, but he's still been among the AL's best pitchers during the first half. In 18 starts (107 IP), he posted a 3.70 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and a 124-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His xBA, xSLG, and Barrel % rank in the 74th percentile or higher, while his BB % and Chase Rate are above the 95 percentile. Ryan has made some clear adjustments this year with a split-finger pitch that has kept batters off balance. Few teams would have a number three starter with those numbers, which can help the Twins, especially in the short Wild Card series. 

The Twins also have other starting pitching depth if injuries strike either of the top three starters. Ober and Maeda have an opportunity to move up in the rotation. A lot of season remains where the team's starting pitching performance might regress, but the team has an opportunity to contend if they qualify for the postseason. 

Strong starting pitching can carry a team in October, and the Twins have prioritized pitching this season. What are your impressions of the Twins' rotation at the end of the first half? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Good, reasonable article. Thank you, Cody.

[jorgenswest]

Strong starting pitching hasn’t carried them so far. No pitching can overcome when bats go dead for a week. They have yet to win more than two series in a row against any competition. How would they put up that consistency in the playoffs? Now is the time to show their potential. The next 5 series are against losing teams. Can they dominate through the end of the month? I want to see that before they stay selling off assets.

[gunnarthor]

Checks standings - sub-.500. Second place. 

Sounds like the right time for TD writers to talk about a dominating post-season rotation.

[NotAboutWinning]

From the topic I thought you were going to propose a massive trade of the entire staff. That’s likely the only way they will be playing in October 🥸 JK!

[Blyleven2011]

We have to get past the deadline first , Before we can talk , are the pitchers built for October  ...

A couple of starters could be traded at deadline for a return of prospects  ...

I see us seller's  with no chance they can even win the division ...

The hitting has not performed  well enough as the pitching goes to waste ....

I would rather not make the playoffs  only to embarrass  us once again  ....

 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I would rather not make the playoffs  only to embarrass  us once again  ....

The games are played to compete towards a World Series victory. Only one team wins it all. If a team gets in the playoffs, anything can happen. That includes setting records for consecutive losses. A Twins fan should welcome another playoff game despite past frustrations. If you watch/listen to the Twins games as a Twins fan you are hoping they do well, I hope. Bring on the playoffs.

[GNess]

There are many examples of mediocre / poor offensive teams with strong pitching having success in the playoffs. for example the 2020 Tampa Bay Rays were 22nd in MLB team batting and 4th in Team Pitching. They won the AL pennant and lost in the World Series 4-2 v the Dodgers.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

We have to get past the deadline first , Before we can talk , are the pitchers built for October  ...

A couple of starters could be traded at deadline for a return of prospects  ...

I see us seller's  with no chance they can even win the division ...

The hitting has not performed  well enough as the pitching goes to waste ....

I would rather not make the playoffs  only to embarrass  us once again  ....

 

It's better to have loved and lost, than never to have loved at all.

[Blyleven2011]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

It's better to have loved and lost, than never to have loved at all.

I just can't raise my hopes only to be let down , so if they do win the division and finally win a playoff game,  I will tip my hat to them  ...

I have been a life long fan since the old met stadium days and the last 3 years it has been  a nightmare stuck on ground hog day ....

[Bodie]

The pitching staff - at least the starters - indeed might be built for an October run.

Unfortunately, the lineup is performing in a manner that will lead to a very disappointing September. (not to mention August, July, June...)

[MTV]

I really like how this rotation has done so far, and I do think that this team should have a buying approach at the deadline, but I think now is the perfect time to trade Sonny Gray. Gray’s Surface-level numbers are excellent, but he’s allowed a solid amount of hard contact, I doubt his 0.3 homers per 9 will keep up, and take out April and he’s held about a 4 ERA. Trading away an All-Star starter that has the bonus of holding a Qualifying offer could net the twins a serious return, maybe even put them into the Paul Goldschmidt conversation (Gray wouldn’t be the only piece in that deal, and it would have to be a 3-team trade, but still), just look at how interested teams are in Lucas Giolito, Gray would command just as high of a return.

[saviking]

OCTOBER? OCTOBER? DON'T TALK TO ME ABOUT OCTOBERS!!! Unless you fix our hitting. lol

[tarheeltwinsfan]

11 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I just can't raise my hopes only to be let down , so if they do win the division and finally win a playoff game,  I will tip my hat to them  ...

I have been a life long fan since the old met stadium days and the last 3 years it has been  a nightmare stuck on ground hog day ....

I've got you beat Bly. I started pulling for this franchise way back in 1955 when I saw the Tigers beat the Senators at old Griffith Park in Washington as I was visiting my grandparents, who lived there. Paul Foytack pitched for the Tigets. The Senators had 5'8" Clink "Scrap Iron" Courtney, Eddie "the Walking Man" Yost, Chuck Stobbs, my favorite pitcher, Camilo "Little Potato" Pascual, Pedro "The Yankee Killer" Ramos, Roy Sievers, Jim Lemon and many other great players. I tried to copy Roy Sievers' batting stance in my Little League games. I struck out every at bat that year. I was 10 years old playing with 11 and 12 year old players. The next year I got some hits and hit almost .300 and by my 12 year old year, I was an All Star, though that was the highlight of my baseball career. Babe Ruth League was played on a field with regular major league dimensions and I was a slow runner.  That did not go well. It was my first year playing in metal cleats instead of black high-top Keds. I pitched in high school, where I hit .250 and I must have set a record for the most walks and the most home runs allowed by a pitcher. I tried out for the UNC freshman baseball team, but I immediately realized I was in way over my head and my tryout lasted only 3 days. I did catch on my law school intramural fast pitch softball team and got the game-winning hit in the championship game, by (please listen to this Twins' players) by hitting a single to the opposite field, driving in the winning run. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

9 hours ago, MTV said:

I really like how this rotation has done so far, and I do think that this team should have a buying approach at the deadline, but I think now is the perfect time to trade Sonny Gray. Gray’s Surface-level numbers are excellent, but he’s allowed a solid amount of hard contact, I doubt his 0.3 homers per 9 will keep up, and take out April and he’s held about a 4 ERA. Trading away an All-Star starter that has the bonus of holding a Qualifying offer could net the twins a serious return, maybe even put them into the Paul Goldschmidt conversation (Gray wouldn’t be the only piece in that deal, and it would have to be a 3-team trade, but still), just look at how interested teams are in Lucas Giolito, Gray would command just as high of a return.

I respectfully disagree. By trading Gray, the Twins lessen their pitching at a critical time in the season. And the trade of Gray, who is a mentor and a leader among the pitchers, would send a negative message to the rest of the team that they can't win the division championship. And that message is just not true. The Twins can win. In fact, they are still favored to win the weak central division, even though they are in second place by 1/2 a game. 

[laloesch]

It's really a shame for as good as the rotation has been the offense has been THAT BAD.  If the offense was halfway good this team would be 15 games over .500.

[Eris]

17 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

 A Twins fan should welcome another playoff game despite past frustrations. If you watch/listen to the Twins games as a Twins fan you are hoping they do well, I hope. Bring on the playoffs.

I never root against the Twins and try not to lose faith.  I would also hope for realistic assessments from the FO regarding whether the team should be buyers, sellers or stand pat at the trade deadline.  When your team is buying high at the deadline only to totally collapse down the stretch an opportunity has been missed to improve the team for the future. I realize that hindsight is beautiful and always 20/20. 

[David Maro]

The pitching is the best it has been in years,but they don't hit and neither does the position players. Yes they will play 1 game in October,the last game of the season. Everyone talked about the 2nd half of the season,we're 10 games past that. What makes people think that things will change,no changes were made at the break. Rocco will still rotate players at every position but SS and change the batting order daily. The next 7 games will tell a story.

[Blyleven2011]

On 7/13/2023 at 6:04 PM, tony&rodney said:

The games are played to compete towards a World Series victory. Only one team wins it all. If a team gets in the playoffs, anything can happen. That includes setting records for consecutive losses. A Twins fan should welcome another playoff game despite past frustrations. If you watch/listen to the Twins games as a Twins fan you are hoping they do well, I hope. Bring on the playoffs.

Oh I do listen and watch  and yes I would like to get to the playoffs  and play  quality baseball  , but I would rather have a team that is hitting  on all cylinders and that hasn't been the twins way of late  ....

I am a loyal twins fan and don't miss alot of games  , I dont like posting negative  responses  but the past 3 years there hasn't been alot of positive  baseball  from the twins organization   , therefore  I won't get my hopes high for a central division  crown only to have those hopes come crashing down  ....

If they win , great and anything can happen , see 1987 twins world series winners  ....

I hope you can tell me at the end of tge season  that I was wrong  ...

Go twins  ...

 

 

[tony&rodney]

48 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Oh I do listen and watch  and yes I would like to get to the playoffs  and play  quality baseball  , but I would rather have a team that is hitting  on all cylinders and that hasn't been the twins way of late  ....

I am a loyal twins fan and don't miss alot of games  , I dont like posting negative  responses  but the past 3 years there hasn't been alot of positive  baseball  from the twins organization   , therefore  I won't get my hopes high for a central division  crown only to have those hopes come crashing down  ....

If they win , great and anything can happen , see 1987 twins world series winners  ....

I hope you can tell me at the end of tge season  that I was wrong  ...

Go twins  ...

 

 

Yeah, I agree. The type of baseball under the current regime (particularly the last three years) has not been my kind of ball. I guess diehard Twins fans just keep the fire going, hoping, and trying to believe.

[Blyleven2011]

47 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Yeah, I agree. The type of baseball under the current regime (particularly the last three years) has not been my kind of ball. I guess diehard Twins fans just keep the fire going, hoping, and trying to believe.

I'm listening right now to gladden giving the lineups  ...

I'll be listening  and maybe watching  all the way to the final out  tonight  ...

Let me tell you about the best game I ever saw as a youngster ...

Doubleheader at the old met stadium  , twins are playing  the Oakland A's 1971 ...

Twins win the first game 9-8 ...

Nightcap , twins are losing 8-7 two outs bottom of tge 9th with rod carew at second base , and who is up to bat but Harmon Killebrew   , who do you want up in that situation  but Killebrew  , Killebrew gets the pitch and the fans roars as the ball is heading for left center and looking like a homerun  , Joe rudi climbs the fence and takes away a homerun with a fantastic catch ,  twins lose but that was the best game loss I ever seen , 

Why was it the best game I ever saw , Killebrew gave it his all that night and almost won the game , his all just wasn't quite enough  with Joe rudi a great left fielder catching it ....

Greatest loss , I tell that story alot to baseball fans ....

Best win I ever seen was 1991 , game seven  of the world series ...

other great memories and stories  and there are tons but a few here was Jim kaat hitting  homeruns  to win the game he pitched all nine innings , a game with Tovar and carew stealing 5 bases in 1 inning and that includes both stealing home in the same inning   ...

Not to be negative of today's game  but that was some exciting baseball back then  ...

[Melissa]

Chiming in very late, here. Lots of talk in baseball publications that front-line pitching is crucial for play-off success; in our case, then the lineup has to heat up at the right time.

Small nit - the Phillies are in the National League, not the AL East.