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Major League Baseball's playoff format allows for some unique scenarios to transpire. Some teams are built for the regular season and can compile wins on their way to October. Other teams limp into the playoffs and must find a way to get hot in the season's most important moments. Last season, the Philadelphia Phillies finished with an 87-75 record, which placed them in third place in the AL East. However, the team got hot at the right time and rode their success to a World Series berth. Baseball has an element of luck, and lesser teams can steal series from teams that are perceived to be better.
The Twins are a long way from being a lock to make the playoffs, but their pitching staff might have the necessary pieces to end the team's playoff losing streak. Entering play this weekend, FanGraphs projected the Twins had a 62.8% chance to win the AL Central. It seems unlikely for the AL Central to get more than one playoff qualifier, so winning the division is the only path to October. Under the current format, the Twins would host a three-game series at Target Field against the lowest-seeded playoff team if they win the division. There's no question the Twins have been inconsistent through the season's first half, but the club might have built a pitching staff that can be successful in October.
Minnesota entered the year with perceived depth in the starting rotation. The team acquired Pablo Lopez in a trade with the Marlins, pushing Bailey Ober and Louie Varland to Triple-A. Eventually, the Twins needed to utilize that depth, with Tyler Mahle undergoing Tommy John surgery and Kenta Maeda missing time with a right triceps strain. Ober has performed well since joining the rotation and looks like a middle-of-the-rotation option for the next decade. Maeda has also returned and performed admirably since coming off the IL. Health will always play a factor late in the season, but the top of the Twins rotation can match up nicely with other playoff contenders.
Sonny Gray
Gray is heading to his third All-Star Game after a dominating first half. In 99 2/3 innings, he posted a 2.89 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP and a 101-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He leads the major leagues with a 0.3 HR/9 and ranks fourth in the AL according to fWAR. Health has been critical to Gray's first-half performance, as he is only 20 innings shy of what he pitched last year with the Twins. Minnesota can attempt to organize the rotation for the playoffs, but Gray in the top spot makes sense with his previous playoff experience. Gray is heading toward a decent payday this winter, but he hopes to bring some October success to Minnesota before hitting free agency.
Pablo Lopez
Fans' view of Lopez is skewed because Luis Arraez has performed well since the trade. He ended the first half ranking among the top-10 pitchers in baseball according to fWAR and became an injury replacement for the All-Star Game. Lopez ranks in the 97th percentile in Chase Rate while also ranking well in Average Exit Velocity (77th), Hard Hit % (69th), xBA (84th), xSLG (80th), BB% (74th), and Whiff% (78th). He would be the top starting pitching option on many teams, including his former club, the Marlins. If Lopez continues to pitch this well, he will match up nicely with any other team's Game 2 starter in the playoffs.
Joe Ryan
Ryan's final start before the All-Star break didn't go as planned, but he's still been among the AL's best pitchers during the first half. In 18 starts (107 IP), he posted a 3.70 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and a 124-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His xBA, xSLG, and Barrel % rank in the 74th percentile or higher, while his BB % and Chase Rate are above the 95 percentile. Ryan has made some clear adjustments this year with a split-finger pitch that has kept batters off balance. Few teams would have a number three starter with those numbers, which can help the Twins, especially in the short Wild Card series.
The Twins also have other starting pitching depth if injuries strike either of the top three starters. Ober and Maeda have an opportunity to move up in the rotation. A lot of season remains where the team's starting pitching performance might regress, but the team has an opportunity to contend if they qualify for the postseason.
Strong starting pitching can carry a team in October, and the Twins have prioritized pitching this season. What are your impressions of the Twins' rotation at the end of the first half? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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