Is Popkins Next Firing in MLB Coaches Mid-Season

[Linus]

This is a problem of organizational philosophy. The FO constructed this lineup with that in mind so you can fire anyone you want and it won’t matter. Their only hope is if Polo Buck and C4 catch fire. This is just another vote of no confidence in this FO. They made the blunder but will stick with their models telling them we will score runs. 

[Irishman]

7 hours ago, howeda7 said:

Who is available in the middle of the season that you want?

How about Rod Carew?

[Dave Borton]

 

17 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Firing Popkins seems like a reasonable move, but where do you get a new hitting coach mid-season?

Yanks found (had) their man. Sean Casey:
Sean Casey hired by Yanks. Probably greased before former batting coach was canned:
"Casey, who has no previous coaching experience, has spent the past 15 seasons as a studio analyst for MLB Network. The choice echoes the hiring of Boone, who had never coached or managed at any level before being installed as manager prior to the 2018 season...."'

https://www.mlb.com/news/sean-casey-yankees-hitting-coach-hire

[NotAboutWinning]

Darn, sounds like he would have been a perfect fit for the Twins! 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

11 hours ago, Linus said:

This is a problem of organizational philosophy. The FO constructed this lineup with that in mind so you can fire anyone you want and it won’t matter. Their only hope is if Polo Buck and C4 catch fire. This is just another vote of no confidence in this FO. They made the blunder but will stick with their models telling them we will score runs. 

This is my fear. The Twins' FO doubles down on their mistakes rather than admit them, fix them, and move on. Popkins isn't going anywhere. He's their guy and they'll continue to provide puff piece interviews where they can't stop speaking but don't actually say anything of substance or meaning.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Oh, and when I say Popkins isn't going anywhere - he should have been fired in May. Actually, he should never have been hired. But nonetheless, there's 0% chance that the FO will move on from him. If the Pohlads bothered to check-in once in a while, perhaps things would be different. But alas...

[Doctor Wu]

Bring back Mickey Hatcher!

[terrydactyls]

13 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Keep swimming upstream with changes. If the players keep failing on offense then next is getting rid of some players through trade and DFA. If that doesn’t work then it’s probably time for the manager to go. And if that doesn’t work the season is lost and the FO is on the hot seat. 

The only thing I would change in your comment is that I think that it would be time for the front office to go rather than the manager (not that the manager shouldn't go at some point).  If you've traded or DFA'd under performing players and you still don't have the right players, that's the fault of the front office, not the manager.  The manager should be fired for many reasons but personnel isn't one of them.

[nicksaviking]

5 hours ago, davidborton said:

 

Yanks found (had) their man. Sean Casey:
Sean Casey hired by Yanks. Probably greased before former batting coach was canned:
"Casey, who has no previous coaching experience, has spent the past 15 seasons as a studio analyst for MLB Network. The choice echoes the hiring of Boone, who had never coached or managed at any level before being installed as manager prior to the 2018 season...."'

https://www.mlb.com/news/sean-casey-yankees-hitting-coach-hire

Yeah, I saw that but definitely don't want to go the talking-head celebrity route. You can't just know how to hit to be a hitting coach, you need to know how to teach too. Does Casey have any experience with that?

[John Belinski]

I do not understand why the Twins hired a hitting coach that had really had no experience as a good hitter. How do you coach players to be better hitters with little or no experience as a good hitter?  There are several  retired Players out there that could be hired today to help the Twins hit better. They may not want the job for the long term, but would be willing to help out for a few months. The current hitting coach certainly isn't helping players so give a retired player a try for the balance of season, the Twins have nothing to lose by making a change. 

[David Maro]

The FO will make no changes here because they like Homerun Derby. The team is now out of first and will more than likely fall in the division. You have to feel for the SP who are doing their jobs. The FO brought Gallo in for one reason only to hit homeruns. Why would anyone want a hitter who strikes out 48% of the time. Popkins or anyone else is going to improve that what 5%. Buxton has one thing in mind at bat swing for the fences or strike out. Polhad's will have to be the one's to step up at the end of the season and clean house. When a business is failing changes need to happen. That maybe the roster has a complete turn over as well.

[Woof Bronzer]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, I saw that but definitely don't want to go the talking-head celebrity route. You can't just know how to hit to be a hitting coach, you need to know how to teach too. Does Casey have any experience with that?

Does Popkins?

[Puckett34]

I'm of the opinion that firing Popkins is probably the most likely thing to happen. Maybe it should, that is not for me to decide.  

 

However, I do think that firing managers, front office personnel, coaches, etc..., midseason is probably not something a middle major organization should be making practice of on the regular.  I'm of the belief that not only will it likely not sold the problem(s) at hand, but it makes prospective future hires hesitate on taking the job.  Sure the Yankee's, Cubs, Dodgers and the like can get away with it and be mostly fine, but I don't think it is something that teams like Minnesota should do.

 

Is this the proper approach, probably not.  Maybe the thought should be more short sighted instead of worrying about hypotheticals. I think I'm talking myself out of the second paragraph.

 

I dunno, I just think personnel changes should be made in the off-season.  Should he be back, next season? No.  But I don't think much is to be gained by making a change with 71 games to go.

[Dave Borton]

1 hour ago, David Maro said:

You have to feel for the SP who are doing their jobs.

Absolutely. Imagine walking to the mound in the 1st and thinking, "I wonder if we are going to get skunked again -- so sick of this shutff."

[Dave Borton]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

...you need to know how to teach too. Does Casey have any experience with that?

No. Yanks are betting on his known personableness and approachability from what I read.

[Mortimerkenny21]

What did I miss? Did he get fired yet? Still waiting? Hmm, ok I'll wait longer.

[Craig Arko]

2 minutes ago, Mortimerkenny21 said:

What did I miss? Did he get fired yet? Still waiting? Hmm, ok I'll wait longer.

Holy mackerel!

[Jocko87]

On 6/29/2023 at 11:37 AM, Jocko87 said:

There are ways to tacitly admit Popkins isn't getting it done without throwing him overboard or making a big scene.  It's also dumb to fire someone who is 33 and had enough promise to get the job in the first place at such a young age.  Honestly it should be expected that he has some adjustments to make as he figures out what the heck hes doing in this job.

This is where Molly comes in.  Throw him a million bucks for the rest of the year as a special assistant/bench coach and assign him to Popkins.  Popkins remains hitting coach but Molly coaches Popkins (and a sounding board for Rocco).  Molly gets a nice paycheck and back around the game but not full time.  He might like it, and the wall was broken in spring training. 

It feels like Popkins is the darling because of his technical hitting knowledge but probably lacks the art and feel.  Engineer vs artist mindset, Molly can fill that in without butting up against Rocco.

It also fills a gap I believe they have had in the coaching staff since Derek Shelton left.  Who's representing the old school in these meetings?  There has to be a voice to simplify things when the data boys get out over their skis.  To much data on the brain could really screw up a hitters approach.

From another thread.  There is no way they will fire Popkins without some interim steps first.  If they believed in him enough to hire at 33 they still believe in him long term.  You may not like it but its the smart move.

New entry for the type of role here is Nelson Cruz.  Simplify the message.  Nelly is the walking billboard for the Popkins way. 

[KirbyDome89]

17 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

So the question is if established veterans have chosen to dramatically change their approach from their career years because the Twins hired 1 new hitting coach? And the team is even more into trying to hit HRs now than they were when they set the MLB single season HR record? If the answer is yes to that first question I blame those established vets just as much as anyone else in the org. If you have a career year doing things 1 way why would you change it to another way? And why wouldn't you change back if you were failing doing things the new way? You're 29 or 30 years old. You're not in little league. You're making 10s of millions of dollars. Don't follow Popkins down a dark alley if you know the way to your destination already.

Buxton's career K% is 29.2 in 2437 PAs. He's at 30.0 this year.

Kepler has seen a spike this year, yes, but even his "steady increase" in 2021 was a matter of 13 strikes over the course of that season. 13 fewer Ks and he'd have had the same K% as 2019. Basically 1 extra K every 10 games played. That doesn't sound like much of a shift in approach. So 2021 he saw basically no real increase in Ks, 2022 he saw career low in Ks, and now he's seeing his career high. I'm not seeing the clear change there.

Jorge Polanco played hurt for most of last year, and has 127 PAs this year. Polanco's 2021 was 12 Ks over the course of the season away from his 2019 K%. 1 K every 12.6 games. Doesn't sound like a huge shift there. 

2019 was their career best years. 2023 is their career worst years. We're looking at outliers and trying to suggest there's some significant change in approach even though they all say their approach is the same. Try to hit the ball really freaking hard.

No, the question was whether the quest to replicate the 2019 results has skewed too far towards the extreme. Has this organization been willing to sacrifice too much to recapture that success? I'm not saying players aren't accountable for their performance. It starts there, but if the Twins are de-emphasizing Ks, situational hitting, yada yada and encouraging the type of all or nothing approach so many of the hitters seem to have they're part of the problem. Can these guys just revert to 2019 form? Why doesn't the current lineup just start hitting line drives, moving runners, or taking extra bases? Easier said than done if you've been down this path for a while right? 2019 was only a career year for Kepler, both Buxton and Polanco have had better offensive seasons post the juiced ball year. 

We both know that Buxton's foray into MLB was rough, and that he struggled mightily at the plate. Why are we using his career K%? Has he even remotely resembled that type of hitter in the time period we're talking about? Even if the changes year to year for all three guys have been incremental, the trend has been upward. They're all sitting at a K% that's 6-7% higher than the starting point. That's not insignificant. I'd be more inclined to believe what we're seeing with this trio is an outlier if some of the new additions weren't also posting some their highest K%s in the last 5 years, or matching career highs. 

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

No, the question was whether the quest to replicate the 2019 results has skewed too far towards the extreme. Has this organization been willing to sacrifice too much to recapture that success? I'm not saying players aren't accountable for their performance. It starts there, but if the Twins are de-emphasizing Ks, situational hitting, yada yada and encouraging the type of all or nothing approach so many of the hitters seem to have they're part of the problem. Can these guys just revert to 2019 form? Why doesn't the current lineup just start hitting line drives, moving runners, or taking extra bases? Easier said than done if you've been down this path for a while right? 2019 was only a career year for Kepler, both Buxton and Polanco have had better offensive seasons post the juiced ball year. 

We both know that Buxton's foray into MLB was rough, and that he struggled mightily at the plate. Why are we using his career K%? Has he even remotely resembled that type of hitter in the time period we're talking about? Even if the changes year to year for all three guys have been incremental, the trend has been upward. They're all sitting at a K% that's 6-7% higher than the starting point. That's not insignificant. I'd be more inclined to believe what we're seeing with this trio is an outlier if some of the new additions weren't also posting some their highest K%s in the last 5 years, or matching career highs. 

Buxton has had 3 seasons where his K% was less than his 29.2% career mark. That's only 1/3 of his seasons. 1 of those was 26.7. He's had 2 out of 9 seasons where his K% was under 25%. Let's not act like he's been some contact oriented hitter who doesn't K at an above league average pace. And with his injuries, streakiness, and sporadic playing time, I have a hard time pointing to him as evidence of anything. As we've already accepted, Kepler was actually much better last year under these same hitting coaches. Do we think these hitting coaches have changed their approach drastically from last year? I pointed out how few Ks it took to get Kepler and Polanco's numbers 6-7% higher than the starting point. 1 K every 12 games. I'm not seeing a drastic shift anywhere with those 3. 

I do think this team has been too extreme in their approach to analytics. But I think they've been that way since they got here. They didn't luck into that 2019 team. This has been their approach from the beginning. And they go out and look for guys who have the same approach quite often. My argument is that they haven't changed their approach, they've just got less talented, and it's been mixed with bad years from Correa and Buxton to make it look like the team is doing something different. Castro, Farmer, MAT, etc. aren't everyday guys. But they're playing everyday for this team. Of course the team numbers look worse. I don't believe the approach is drastically different at all. I think the results are different.

They talked about looking to hit mistakes for maximum damage in 2019. They talk about looking to hit mistakes for maximum damage in 2023. It's the same approach. They just hit the mistakes more often in 2019 which lead to different results. And their lack of change in approach for years has made them super easy to scout and prepare for. Not surprising at all that the whole league knows how to attack the Twins since they've been trying to do the same thing since Falvine arrived.

[NapoleonComplex]

On 7/10/2023 at 10:11 AM, nicksaviking said:

Firing Popkins seems like a reasonable move, but where do you get a new hitting coach mid-season? Dipping down to AAA seems like the only logical option.

Saints currently tied for 4th in OPS in the International League. They're 5th in SLG, 4th BA, 8th BB. Nate Spears might be on to something. Then again, Saints batters have the second most strikeouts in the league. 

[KirbyDome89]

43 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Buxton has had 3 seasons where his K% was less than his 29.2% career mark. That's only 1/3 of his seasons. 1 of those was 26.7. He's had 2 out of 9 seasons where his K% was under 25%. Let's not act like he's been some contact oriented hitter who doesn't K at an above league average pace. And with his injuries, streakiness, and sporadic playing time, I have a hard time pointing to him as evidence of anything. As we've already accepted, Kepler was actually much better last year under these same hitting coaches. Do we think these hitting coaches have changed their approach drastically from last year? I pointed out how few Ks it took to get Kepler and Polanco's numbers 6-7% higher than the starting point. 1 K every 12 games. I'm not seeing a drastic shift anywhere with those 3. 

I do think this team has been too extreme in their approach to analytics. But I think they've been that way since they got here. They didn't luck into that 2019 team. This has been their approach from the beginning. And they go out and look for guys who have the same approach quite often. My argument is that they haven't changed their approach, they've just got less talented, and it's been mixed with bad years from Correa and Buxton to make it look like the team is doing something different. Castro, Farmer, MAT, etc. aren't everyday guys. But they're playing everyday for this team. Of course the team numbers look worse. I don't believe the approach is drastically different at all. I think the results are different.

They talked about looking to hit mistakes for maximum damage in 2019. They talk about looking to hit mistakes for maximum damage in 2023. It's the same approach. They just hit the mistakes more often in 2019 which lead to different results. And their lack of change in approach for years has made them super easy to scout and prepare for. Not surprising at all that the whole league knows how to attack the Twins since they've been trying to do the same thing since Falvine arrived.

Uh huh, and those three seasons all happened to come after he turned a corner offensively. Now the K rate has climbed back up, but again, he's not the same type of hitter that was posting those numbers early on.

Huh? An extra 7% in 2019 is 42 Ks, so an additional strikeout every 4 games is the difference. Instead of striking out an extra time every 4th game this year, lets say he gets a hit 20% of the time to maintain his paltry .200 average, only singles as well, no extra bases whatsoever. That's a .733 OPS, which isn't all that impressive, but it would be a 45 point improvement on where he's at currently. I think 7% kinda makes a difference. That's a .232/.300/.433 slash line

What hitters in any era of baseball haven't looked to attack mistakes? Maybe it is a talent thing, Idk, but I have trouble believing that guys like Taylor, Farmer, or Vasquez show up, post high K rates, and it's just a coincidence. The Twins would have to be the unluckiest team of all time to collect all these guys having some of the worst contact seasons of their careers, all at the same time. Hell, throw the Gallo signing in there too. To me these signify a greater willingness to sacrifice contact. 

 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Uh huh, and those three seasons all happened to come after he turned a corner offensively. Now the K rate has climbed back up, but again, he's not the same type of hitter that was posting those numbers early on.

Huh? An extra 7% in 2019 is 42 Ks, so an additional strikeout every 4 games is the difference. Instead of striking out an extra time every 4th game this year, lets say he gets a hit 20% of the time to maintain his paltry .200 average, only singles as well, no extra bases whatsoever. That's a .733 OPS, which isn't all that impressive, but it would be a 45 point improvement on where he's at currently. I think 7% kinda makes a difference. That's a .232/.300/.433 slash line

What hitters in any era of baseball haven't looked to attack mistakes? Maybe it is a talent thing, Idk, but I have trouble believing that guys like Taylor, Farmer, or Vasquez show up, post high K rates, and it's just a coincidence. The Twins would have to be the unluckiest team of all time to collect all these guys having some of the worst contact seasons of their careers, all at the same time. Hell, throw the Gallo signing in there too. To me these signify a greater willingness to sacrifice contact. 

 

We should probably acknowledge that Buxton likes to publicly talk about how he does his own thing when it comes to hitting. He's been very open that he's his own hitting coach. And he's been playing through injuries the last 2 years instead of going on the IL. Does that play any role?

The K every 12 games stat wasn't about raising the 2019 K%, but lowering the future ones. Your claim is that they're K'ing at a significantly higher rate because the Twins have told them to sacrifice contact. Polanco had 116 Ks in 704 PAs in 2019 for a 16.5% K rate. In 2021 he had 118 in 644 for an 18.3% rate. 106 Ks in 644 PAs gets him to 16.5%. He played 152 games that year. 12 Ks (118 down to 106) over 152 games isn't much of a spike to me. In 2022 he had 95 Ks in 445 PAs for 21.3% K rate. Now that is a more significant spike as he'd have to get down to 74 Ks in 445 PAs to get to 16.6%. That's a K every 5 games. But he also played much of the year hurt, like this year, so I'm not sure we can really put that all on some massive approach change.

So what's their strategy this year? How have all these veteran hitters changed their approaches? What is different about their approach that leads to more Ks? Do you think MAT cares about his next contract? Is he willing to change his approach drastically and rack up all these Ks knowing he's a free agent after the year? The guys we're talking about have all been in the league a really long time, and had some amount of success. You really think they all got to spring training and the Twins told them to significantly change their approach and they were all just cool with that?

My main question is what do you mean by "greater willingness to sacrifice contact?" What does that look like? What are they saying in hitter meetings? What were they taught in spring training that would "sacrifice contact?" And was it all such strong teachings that they are incapable of going back to career norms they built up over years because of 4+ months with the Twins?

Interesting stat: 2019 Twins lineup hit 97 HRs in 3225 PAs with 2 strikes. .03 HRs per PA. 2023 Twins lineup has 31 HRs in 1885 PAs with 2 strikes. .016 HRs per PA. Was that 2019 team cutting down their swings with 2 strikes, or did they just perform better with the same approach?

[KirbyDome89]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The K every 12 games stat wasn't about raising the 2019 K%, but lowering the future ones. Your claim is that they're K'ing at a significantly higher rate because the Twins have told them to sacrifice contact. Polanco had 116 Ks in 704 PAs in 2019 for a 16.5% K rate. In 2021 he had 118 in 644 for an 18.3% rate. 106 Ks in 644 PAs gets him to 16.5%. He played 152 games that year. 12 Ks (118 down to 106) over 152 games isn't much of a spike to me. In 2022 he had 95 Ks in 445 PAs for 21.3% K rate. Now that is a more significant spike as he'd have to get down to 74 Ks in 445 PAs to get to 16.6%. That's a K every 5 games. But he also played much of the year hurt, like this year, so I'm not sure we can really put that all on some massive approach change.

So what's their strategy this year? How have all these veteran hitters changed their approaches? What is different about their approach that leads to more Ks? Do you think MAT cares about his next contract? Is he willing to change his approach drastically and rack up all these Ks knowing he's a free agent after the year? The guys we're talking about have all been in the league a really long time, and had some amount of success. You really think they all got to spring training and the Twins told them to significantly change their approach and they were all just cool with that?

My main question is what do you mean by "greater willingness to sacrifice contact?" What does that look like? What are they saying in hitter meetings? What were they taught in spring training that would "sacrifice contact?" And was it all such strong teachings that they are incapable of going back to career norms they built up over years because of 4+ months with the Twins?

I used 2019 PAs for Kepler because it was the full season vs. the present but yes, if he misses time again this year it could be closer to 1 K every 5 or even 6 games. 

If I knew what was going on in hitters meetings, or I had the answer to what was wrong I'd be employed by the Twins right?

Do I think the Twins are explicitly telling hitters it's fine to K at will? No. Do I think they believe in an approach that de-emphasizes Ks and overvalues putting the ball in the air? Yes. Do I think that approach finds it way into how hitters prepare game to game, and how coaches instruct? Also yes. 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Do I think the Twins are explicitly telling hitters it's fine to K at will? No. Do I think they believe in an approach that de-emphasizes Ks and overvalues putting the ball in the air? Yes. Do I think that approach finds it way into how hitters prepare game to game, and how coaches instruct? Also yes. 

I agree with this whole paragraph. My argument isn't that they don't de-emphasize Ks or want to put the ball in the air. My argument is that isn't a different approach than in 2019. That's the exact same approach they had in 2019. They were just better at actually hitting the ball, and putting it in the air, in 2019. This is the approach the Twins have had since Falvine got here. And firing Popkins isn't going to change that approach because it's the approach that Falvine thinks is the right one. They just have less talented players this year so the results are different. But the approach isn't.

[lecroy24fan]

21 hours ago, John Belinski said:

I do not understand why the Twins hired a hitting coach that had really had no experience as a good hitter. 

Some of the best hitting coaches were not good hitters. Walt Hriniak is one.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Popkins wasn't ready for the job. He's too inexperienced. Sometimes thinking outside of the box works. Sometimes, it doesn't. There's nothing wrong with trying something and failing - if you see the mistake and correct it. The Twins are incapable of doing that.

Speaking of thinking outside of the box - I'd say Nelson Cruz. IYAM, the Twins' success in 2019 had as much to do with his presence as it did Rowson.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Popkins wasn't ready for the job. He's too inexperienced. Sometimes thinking outside of the box works. Sometimes, it doesn't. There's nothing wrong with trying something and failing - if you see the mistake and correct it. The Twins are incapable of doing that.

Speaking of thinking outside of the box - I'd say Nelson Cruz. IYAM, the Twins' success in 2019 had as much to do with his presence as it did Rowson.

I think Padres fans would probably tell you his presence isn't enough to save an underperforming major league lineup in 2023.

[dxpavelka]

On 7/10/2023 at 8:45 AM, davidborton said:

(Popkins changed from Maki in Subjecl Line. Thx editor. E-db)

Yanks fired hitting coach Dillon Lawson after yesterday's loss. Cashman said, "... I ultimately felt that a change was needed and that a new voice overseeing our hitting operations would give us the best chance to perform closer to our capabilities." 

I thought it would be interesting to compare Yanks/Twins to see how the two teams compared. 

BA:
Yanks, .231
Twins, .232

OBP:
Yanks, .300
Twins, .309

Slugging:
Yanks, .410
Twins, .400

K%
Twins, 26.8%
Yanks, 22%

BA w/RISP
Twins, .232 (I was surprised it was this high. I checked it twice)
Yanks, .231

Question:
1. Should the Twins follow suit and make that unusual midseason change and let Popkins go?
2. Is Popkins merely a mirror of the entire organizational approach to hitting or is he just in over his head?
3. Is there anyone within the organization who could take over?

I support canning him now. I don't believe his termination would adversely affect the Twins anemic offensive effort. Further, I believe the roster needs a wakeup call. Coaches are like manager's termination: You can't fire a whole team but someone needs to assume some accountability for this team's dismal offensive failure thru 1/2 way point. 

Popkins should go and roster changes are also needed. As well, the culture needs to change. Twins' individual players decide if they need batting practice. Coaches not conducting daily infield practice. 

None of which proves that firing Lawson was the right move OR that firing Popkins would be the right move either.  WAKE UP calls are cute.  But seldom achieve the desired result.  You consider making a move if you have a viable improvement candidate available.  Making a move just to make a move is foolish.  What we need is better hitters.  Like some of the ones we've moved on from in recent years that I can't mention for fear of incurring the wrath of squirrel.

[Nine of twelve]

3 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Speaking of thinking outside of the box - I'd say Nelson Cruz. IYAM, the Twins' success in 2019 had as much to do with his presence as it did Rowson.

Interesting thought, hiring him as a coach rather than as a player. The question is whether his talent as a power hitter would translate into working with all types of hitters to get the most out of the skills they happen to have. Keep in mind that the Twins' hitting success in 2019 was due to power hitting, which was the correct approach for that season due to use of baseballs with low air resistance. Baseball (and baseballs) are quite different now compared to then.