What were the best and the worst trades made by Derek Falvey?

[lecroy24fan]

The Ryan trade is this regime's Nathan/Liriano/Bonser for AJ trade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If Ryan pitches like this going forward, the Twins might get like 15-20 wins for two months of a 41 year old Nelson Cruz. That’s an amazing return. 

[Thiéres Rabelo]

I finally had some time to fix the list I originally posted on Friday based on the ESPN information (they even missed the José Berríos trade...). This time, I used the Twins website. If I didn't miss anything, the number is currently at 81 total trades.

[jmlease1]

The Ryan deal is the easy win: moving a 41-year DH on an expiring contract for a starting pitcher that has already had a very solid rookie season and so far has taken another step forward to be a front-line playoff caliber starter and potential all-star is a heck of a win.

The Pressly deal is one that I think a  lot of people come back to as a big loss, but I do understand the thought process behind the deal and it's important to note that both of the players the Twins got back in return made it to the majors in relatively short order. When the Twins moved Pressly might have been 2nd in the division, but they were 6 games under .500 and 8 games out of first. Pressly was 29 years old and while the K/9 had taken a big jump, he was still pretty hittable, so it wasn't glaringly obvious that he was going to be a shut-down reliever, especially having come off a pretty forgettable season the year before. I think it's also reasonable to say that the front office was anticipating more of a rebuild; the juiced ball Bomba Squad was a bit of a surprise. Celestino's screwed up development path (and now injury) and Alcala's injury have dinged this more than maybe it should, especially with the big bump in Pressly's salary that followed.

The Mahle deal is the one that's worked out the worst, but the process behind it was pretty sound. I'd argue that the decision-making behind the Pressly deal was decent as well.

The trade lists for this regime are pretty solid. I think their track record on free agents has been more problematic, where they've generally prioritized value over talent more often than not and taken too many fliers on reclamation projects.

[dex8425]

Best:

1. Cruz for Joe Ryan

2. Palacios for Jake Odorizzi. Odo was an all star and even pitched well enough to get a QO. 

3. Dumping Donaldson's salary and replacing him with Urshela, who gave the Twins the same production at what, a fourth of the cost?

 4. Escobar for Jhoan Duran

5. Petty for Sonny Gray. Even if Petty turns out to be really good, the Twins still got 2 years of front-line starting pitching at a reasonable price for a total lottery ticket that likely won't pan out, and if so, for years. Gray has been huge at leading the rotation emotionally this year. He's like a coach. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Arraez for López looking pretty great this morning.  Definitely moving up the list.

It’s also fascinating that the Twins and Houston traded Pressly and Duran to each other five years ago - on the same day!

[weitz41]

1 hour ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Arraez for López looking pretty great this morning.  Definitely moving up the list.

It’s also fascinating that the Twins and Houston traded Pressly and Duran to each other five years ago - on the same day!

Duran came over from the Diamondback's for Escobar. Celestino and Acala came over from the Pressly trade.

[Lefty61]

Definitely Cruz for Ryan in my book, especially given it was a deal with the pitching savvy Rays who really missed on evaluating Ryan which also is indicative of the sell high opportunities that can be had with contending teams at the trade deadline.  Also took chutzpah to trade #1 pick Petty only months in the Twins system for Gray, which certaily put the Twins over the top to make the playoffs this year.  Given the lack of quality innings eating starting pitching available on the trade market every year, teams need to be prepared to overpay with trade prospects/talent for the good ones, impressive the FO got it right with Gray and Lopez.  Also, this list is very messy with all the player for cash lottery tickets and minor league fillers, a new list should pull these out, they don't count as major league trades in my book.  

[AlwaysinModeration]

1 hour ago, weitz41 said:

Duran came over from the Diamondback's for Escobar. Celestino and Acala came over from the Pressly trade.

Yes, you’re right, I misspoke—not to each other, but they still were both acquired on the same day.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Right now best trades.  

1. Lopez for Arraez

2. Duran for Escobar

3.  Gray for Petty

3. Ryan for Cruz

4. Paddack and Pagan for Rogers

 

Both the Lopez and Gray trades are higher than most would have put them.  Hindsight helps.  However when you can get a #1 pitcher for Arraez the trade always tips in your favor,  especially when they sign a team friendly extension.  Duran is obviously elite.  Gray has provided everything we could have hoped for.  Him and Lopez have the ability to lead us deep in the playoffs.  Add in we may get a draft pick if he were to sign elsewhere and that trade looks golden.  Ryan trade speaks for it self.  The Paddack Pagan trade has the potential to pay dividends as well.  Paddack looks really good, and hopefully can fill into Grays spot next year.   

[TopGunn#22]

Ryan for Cruz was great.  A young SP with talent for an aging DH.  Pressley was tough in hindsight just because we've gotten very little from either prospect.  Alcala may still turn out but probably not Celestino.  Gray for Petty indeed took chutzpah!  And I'd do it 100 out of 100 times.  It will be even better if we can secure Gray for a few more years but still a win.  Also, in hindsight, Paddock and Pagan for Taylor Rogers has worked out pretty nicely.  

I was a little surprised the price was so high for Mahle.  BOTH Steer and CES in addition to a young pitching prospect was a LOT.  Especially with all the injuries Mahle dealt with and his lack of positive impact.  But Mahle was a solid #3 SP and at the time I was on board with it.  If the Twins bring Mahle back on a very team friendly deal and Mahle, as a result of that deal is able to give the Twins a couple of 12-13 win seasons it would be a completely different outcome.  But that ship has probably sailed so I'd consider that deal, with the projected future contributions of Steer and CES for the Reds a bad trade.  

[ashbury]

On 5/12/2023 at 4:33 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Penultimate worst is... oh, that's a tough one. Probably the Pressly trade? But that wasn't even that bad but there are a few meh/bad trades to choose from there.

Jorge Lopez gets my vote.

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Jorge Lopez gets my vote.

Yeah, after the continued failure of J Lopez and the nearly-equal disaster of Floro, that trade has "climbed" the rankings.

[Nine of twelve]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

4. Paddack and Pagan for Rogers

 

First, this is not accurate. In addition to Rogers the Twins traded Brent Rooker for Paddack and Pagan.

Rogers has been so-so during the last 2 years. Rooker may be a rising star. Pagan rebounded from a poor 2022 to have a good 2023. Paddack has been essentially a non-factor for the last 2 years. I think if anything the Twins may have come out a bit behind up to this point, but that could easily change depending on how these players perform over the next few years.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

5 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

First, this is not accurate. In addition to Rogers the Twins traded Brent Rooker for Paddack and Pagan.

Rogers has been so-so during the last 2 years. Rooker may be a rising star. Pagan rebounded from a poor 2022 to have a good 2023. Paddack has been essentially a non-factor for the last 2 years. I think if anything the Twins may have come out a bit behind up to this point, but that could easily change depending on how these players perform over the next few years.

Rooker was DFA'd by San Diego.  That is why I didn't include him.   As to the his performance,  he was great at the beginning of the season, struggled the entirety of the summer and had a pretty good Sept.  He is not a rising star.  However, he could be a decent player for the A's if his strikeouts don't come up to haunt him again.  They are winning the trade currently just from Pagan.  As to Paddack, his stuff looks legit.  We get a couple of solid years from him would be great.  Plus have a chance at a comp pick for him as well I believe.  

[Vanimal46]

The Twins and Marlins both got their dream outcome in the Arraez for Lopez + prospect trade. As much as we enjoy “fleecing” other teams in trades, this particular trade is a great example of how trades should work out. 

[jmlease1]

I would still rank the Ryan for Cruz deal as the best; we gave up little (half a season of an aging DH that was unlikely to return) and got a lot (a guy under team control who quickly became a rotation mainstay and can be a playoff starter). More importantly, the twins got what they needed: a young healthy starter that would be our for years at a good price.

The Lopez deal is a very good one, though because it raised the ceiling of the twins rotation and slotted us a pitcher with ace potential. We gave up a lot more in making the deal, but we also were still trading from a position of depth and strength (much like we did with the disappointing Mahle deal). Arraez is an excellent player, a good dude, and super fun to watch. But with Julien & Polanco, along with Miranda (even if Miranda's season went belly-up) and Martin and Lee rising, the Twins had plenty of depth to work with...even after having dealt Steer & CES in the ill-fated Mahle deal. But finding pitchers that can raise your ceiling like Lopez did is exceptionally expensive in free agency and not easy to develop either (many potentially great pitchers fall apart in the minors, often just from injury. see also, Canterino, Matt). 

I don't need to fleece the other team for it to be a great deal, as long as the Twins get what they need.

[AlwaysinModeration]

6 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Right now best trades.  

1. Lopez for Arraez

2. Duran for Escobar

3.  Gray for Petty

3. Ryan for Cruz

4. Paddack and Pagan for Rogers

 

Michael A. needs to be on your revised list.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

5 minutes ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

Michael A. needs to be on your revised list.

You would be placing Taylor above Paddack and Pagan.  I love Taylor,  but I have effectively prioritized elite players.  That is not to say Taylor hasn't been elite as a defensive player and even done fairly well with the bat, However I see Paddack performing as our #2 pitcher next year.  The question is will he be on an innings limit.   

[Trov]

When you look at the 81 trades, most are not even remembered because very minor.  I find there was more good trades versus bad trades.  You can judge some trades for what we ultimately got in return versus what we gave up, but at the time they may have been good trades, just injures did not work out.  I think the smaller trades of Farmer and Taylor this year was huge, and did not give up much to get.  

I can understand why people do not like some of the trades, and the original post talk about lack of direction.  What I find about some of the trades is they did seem to be moves just to make moves, more so early on.  I would disagree that the Maeda trade was bad.  Yes, he missed a full year and half basically, but he helped in 2020 and 2023 a lot.  If you look just at innings pitched, sure they are not far from each other, but Madea was starter innings and Gratoral was pen innings.  Who would have started for Maeda when he was healthy?  

Looking at other moves made or players kept is important just as much as who was sent away.  The Mahle trade, turned out to be terrible, but the guys we sent away were far down our depth chart and we would have wanted to move them eventually anyways to open up 40 man roster space. 

[Brandon]

One pair of trades I liked was the trade of international spending money for Pearson from the Angels and Banuelos from Seattle.  We literally gave up nothing to get a 2nd round draft pick and a fifth-round draft pick.  Banuelos has been pretty solid organizational depth since that trade and is still with the organization at this time.  

Of course the trades i really like the most are the ones that help us advance the most in the post season.  Gray and Lopez for Petty and Arraez

also Escobar for Duran

Leguima for Farmer

I like how JA Happ was traded for a prospect that was traded for Taylor

Mitch Garver for the parts to include in Donaldson trade for salary relief which allowed us to get our SS

and I like odorizzi trade.

There are lots of trades to like here.

Trade I hated

Coulumbe for cash

Nick anderson trade

Sam Dyson trade.  

Didnt like how lopsided the Mahle trade turned out but I don't hate go for it trades like this either.  

Thats pretty much it.  there are way more good trade then bad ones.  

 

 

[Nine of twelve]

On 10/9/2023 at 9:44 AM, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Rooker was DFA'd by San Diego.  That is why I didn't include him.   As to the his performance,  he was great at the beginning of the season, struggled the entirety of the summer and had a pretty good Sept.  He is not a rising star.  However, he could be a decent player for the A's if his strikeouts don't come up to haunt him again.  They are winning the trade currently just from Pagan.  As to Paddack, his stuff looks legit.  We get a couple of solid years from him would be great.  Plus have a chance at a comp pick for him as well I believe.  

The fact that San Diego DFA'd Rooker doesn't matter. To make a comparison, The Twins acquired David Ortiz from Seattle for Dave Hollins. Since Ortiz never realized his full potential until after the Twins released him, does that trade become less unfavorable from Seattle's perspective? Of course not. And I didn't say that Rooker was a rising star, I said that he may be one.

[Doctor Wu]

On 10/9/2023 at 10:44 PM, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Rooker was DFA'd by San Diego.  That is why I didn't include him.   As to the his performance,  he was great at the beginning of the season, struggled the entirety of the summer and had a pretty good Sept.  He is not a rising star.  However, he could be a decent player for the A's if his strikeouts don't come up to haunt him again.  They are winning the trade currently just from Pagan.  As to Paddack, his stuff looks legit.  We get a couple of solid years from him would be great.  Plus have a chance at a comp pick for him as well I believe.  

Not only do many people forget that Rooker was part of that original trade package, many forget that, as you noted, he was DFAd by the Padres AND after another short stint, by the Royals too. Man, if you can't stick with KC, that's pretty bad, But credit to Rooker, he turned it around with Oakland this year. But by this time next year, who knows how it will all look. 

[Doctor Wu]

On 10/10/2023 at 5:18 AM, Brandon said:

Nick anderson trade

All these names and trades, my memory is rusty ... was Nick Anderson actually traded or did the Marlins grab him on waivers? Of course, he didn't last that long in Miami either, but really blossomed in Tampa Bay. 

[Trov]

11 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

The fact that San Diego DFA'd Rooker doesn't matter. To make a comparison, The Twins acquired David Ortiz from Seattle for Dave Hollins. Since Ortiz never realized his full potential until after the Twins released him, does that trade become less unfavorable from Seattle's perspective? Of course not. And I didn't say that Rooker was a rising star, I said that he may be one.

I do not know how you could say Brent Rooker is a potential rising star.  I get he had an okay season, but he is entering his age 29 season, normally age 27 is peak year.  After 30 they tend to trend down.  This year he had crazy hot April, an above average July, and all-star level September, but every other month was well below replacement level.  He may have some hot streaks, but a rising star he is not, nor will he.  He is too old to be a rising star, at best he is a guy that can get on a hot streak, but I bet there is about 20 to 25 teams that would not even have him on their 40 man.  The Twins included. 

[Trov]

26 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

All these names and trades, my memory is rusty ... was Nick Anderson actually traded or did the Marlins grab him on waivers? Of course, he didn't last that long in Miami either, but really blossomed in Tampa Bay. 

I think people over value what Nick Anderson has done in his career.  For Tampa Bay he had basically 38 really good innings over 2 seasons.  He was decent this year with Braves, but still only 35 innings for the year.  Pagan for us did 69 innings, with similar other numbers.  

I mean in Nick Anderson's career he has only pitched only 122 innings total.  Sure, he had an amazing 38 innings over 2 seasons for Tampa Bay, but outside of that he is a good, not great, late inning guy.  

[Nine of twelve]

2 hours ago, Trov said:

I do not know how you could say Brent Rooker is a potential rising star.  I get he had an okay season, but he is entering his age 29 season, normally age 27 is peak year. 

Whit Merrifield says hi. Is Rooker the next Nolan Jones or Evan Carter? No. Was rising star a bit of an overstatement? Could be. But many of us here were optimistic about him before he was traded, and few players go into decline at age 28. My point is that he's not nobody and could easily become somebody.

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

I do not know how you could say Brent Rooker is a potential rising star.  I get he had an okay season, but he is entering his age 29 season, normally age 27 is peak year.  After 30 they tend to trend down.  This year he had crazy hot April, an above average July, and all-star level September, but every other month was well below replacement level.  He may have some hot streaks, but a rising star he is not, nor will he.  He is too old to be a rising star, at best he is a guy that can get on a hot streak, but I bet there is about 20 to 25 teams that would not even have him on their 40 man.  The Twins included. 

Rooker probably has 3-5 seasons off .750 and above OPS with 20+ HRs and he should get some chances with the A’s while he is still cheap the next 2-3 years.  He may not be great or have a long career, but he could end up with 100-150 career HRs before it’s all over for him and that would be solid.  

[Brandon]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

I think people over value what Nick Anderson has done in his career.  For Tampa Bay he had basically 38 really good innings over 2 seasons.  He was decent this year with Braves, but still only 35 innings for the year.  Pagan for us did 69 innings, with similar other numbers.  

I mean in Nick Anderson's career he has only pitched only 122 innings total.  Sure, he had an amazing 38 innings over 2 seasons for Tampa Bay, but outside of that he is a good, not great, late inning guy.  

If he was here we would also have the extra value of playing another guy from Minnesota.  

[Linus]

The Pressly trade continues to get worse. Never understood that one.