Twins have the lowest team batting average in MLB

[bighat]

14 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

And I don't really know where the consistent improvement will come from. Their lineup lacks a middle. Nobody is going to put up a 1.000 OPS. 

This really concerns me as well - there's really no help on the way. The only way this offense becomes adequate is if Buxton & Correa to hit like Betts & Freeman on a regular basis, and get solid contributions from supporting players. So it appears that the Twins need at least 2 of the following players to become at least somewhat dangerous: Gallo, Polanco, Miranda, Gordon, Kirilloff, Larnach and Kepler. Who else do they have? Wallner? Lewis? Lee? Celestino? Reserves like LaMonte Wade are not walking through that door any time soon. It's up to the aforementioned group.

Oh yeah, and don't forget: Buxton & Correa have to hit like Betts & Freeman for any of that to work. How's that going? 

There's really no moves the coach or the front office can make at this point. The Twins are what they are, and they're going to need a bunch of guys to improve bigly to have any shot at staying above .500, let alone making the postseason. And judging on what they've delivered so far, I have a hard time seeing that happening. I wish I felt differently. 

[jccracraft]

11 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

I am more concerned about the fielding and mental errors. We have arguably lost three series (Boston, Cleveland, Chicago) due to basically coughing up the lead late due to fielding/mental errors during one of the games, and for two other games, our fielding miscues have let the game get out of hand. This is the 3rd year in a row that I have been complaining about this. (Of course, over a season, errors are going to occur, but good teams aren't going to lose more than a couple of games due to miscues. Also, it is not only the errors, but when they occur. To me, this indicates a lack of focus at key moments.)

Agree. Multiple fielding miscues which were not all listed as errors. Solono needs to go. I still like Miranda a 3B, to give him time to learn. Correa has looked fantastic IMO. Fires the ball over to first.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Yes, regression to the mean is a double-edged sword when it comes to the Twins "offense" right now. I think they almost certain to raise their OBP and batting average in the coming months, but I think it is unlikely that they continue to get as high of a percentage of the guys that get on to score. 

Honestly, I'd settle for middle-of-the-pack run scoring if the Twins continue to be among the top three is run suppression. 

You nailed the regression to the mean part.

The Twins are second to last in BABIP at .268. With regression to the mean at around .300 BABIP, the batting average should become more middle of the pack too.

[raindog]

Batting average isn't a great metric these days, at least not alone. 

Unfortunately, they are also 21st in wOBA and 18th in expected wOBA, lol. 

Edit: In good news, they are 2nd in wOBA allowed, and 1st in xWOBA allowed.

[Puckett34]

BABIP is significantly low (.057 under league average) good enough for 29th in the league, along with being tied for 6th in Hard Hit Rate, I think those hard hit balls have got to be landing for hits soon.

 

Although the last 6-12 games are quite discouraging, it seems to be the kind of year were if the Twins get decent hitting, the pitching is garbage or the pitching is decent/excellent, but the hitting is garbage.  They can't seem to put together complete "team" games.

[Irishman]

18 hours ago, sun said:

As of today, the Twins have the lowest team batting average in MLB. It's .220 and the 2nd lowest is Cleveland at .223. Most teams are way above the Twins. https://www.mlb.com/stats/team/runs

Man, Not so good news to hear.  Bummer!   Hopefully, team needs to start hitting!  Who is our hitting coach?    Are they having trouble adjusting to our hitting coach’s philosophy?

[tarheeltwinsfan]

7 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

I really want to see moving the runner up in the extras especially. It's so sad to see K, fly ball, K, and the runner trots back into the dugout without advancing.

Amen.

[DocBauer]

Always felt the offense was the weakest part of the team coming in to the season. But I never expected it to be this bad.

But to be fair, ALL of the Twins stats were basically middle of the pack 6 games ago. Only 6 weeks in to the season, those numbers can rise and fall quickly, which they just did after the recent road trip.

If you look at milb and recent drafts, the Twins are mid change in their offensive approach. The problem is, the CURRENT team is built for power and decent OB with little speed and only a few "hitters" in the lineup. 

IMO, despite some obvious restrictions, the problem really is the talent on hand simply not performing near to what is expected, by us as fans, or projections. Correa hasn't found any sort of groove. Gordon hasn't looked anything close to what he's shown previously, despite a couple HR. Miranda, also, has yet to look anything like his 2021 or May to August plus 2022 self. Larnach was great in ST and the first week, and then nosedived.  Solano was signed for depth and to hit LH arms. He's completely disappeared after a couple of very good weeks.

POSITIVE progression SHOULD happen simply due to normalcy of numbers and expectation of talent on hand. But is that enough?

I still have faith in Larnach, but he needed a re-set and AK is a power bat and a "hitter" so he just might help. Polanco does everything. He helped carry the team for a week, and will get hot again. Gallo will ALWAYS be a streak hitter, which is why he's best batting around the 7th spot. SOMEHOW, they need to get Miranda straightened out to be the batter he has shown he can be. Farmer can help by just being a pro, and giving some days off to guys, and allow Miranda to play some 1B against LHP. 

Right now, it isn't earth shattering by any means, but the team would be better eliminating a RH platoon 1B in Solano and adding Garlick back, or, and don't laugh, giving the versatile Helman a shot.

Lewis might help by June. Julien might also, but where does he play? Why on earth isn't he seeing some time at 1B and LF? There's limited opportunity if he only plays 2B and DH. And while he cooled the last week, we can't dismiss Wallner as a future option as well as Larnach if he gets his stroke and confidence back.

There are no easy answers to fix the offense. It starts with Correa and Miranda getting hot. Polanco will be fine. Gallo will be streaky, but should produce. It's really tough when the entire lineup just gets cold all at once. But you can play around with the fringes of the lineup, and you should. 

SOMEONE for Salono might help, at least a little. Kirilloff just might be ready to settle in and make a difference. But this isn't fantasy baseball where you can just swap out half your team like an XBOX game. I don't have the answer as to HOW...there is no Redmond walking through the clubhouse naked to shake things up, LOL...but the NEED is for the talented veterans on this club to "be themselves" and do what they do and not trying to do too much. If I knew how to do that, I'd be working for a team and not posting as a fan, LOL. 

But there is enough talent on this team to just not be this pathetic. 

 

[Riverbrian]

Good Morning Everyone. 

.219 is the new number as of this morning. 

Lot's of talk suggesting (When Correa, When Lewis, regression to the mean) that these numbers will improve. Makes sense... the number has to go up because they are pretty darn low. 

However, I would like to talk about the possibility of sustainability. 

In 2022... The last place team... the Oakland A's... hit .216 as a team. 

In 2021... The last place team... the Seattle Mariners... hit .226 as a team. 

Team batting average... this is what last place looks like. Yeah... it should get better but let's not lose sight of the possibility of it also being sustainable. 

[Riverbrian]

Looking at the offense, On May 10, 2023... The Twins are healthy. Just Farmer on the DL.

These are the guys. This is the roster that got us here and will have to get us out of here apparently. 

These 7 positions are seemingly primarily locked. 

1B - Kirilloff

2B - Polanco

3B - Miranda

SS - Correa

LF - Gallo

RF - Kepler

DH - Buxton

CF - Taylor and Gordon appear to be splitting time. 

C - Vazquez is playing 2 to 1 over Jeffers despite Jeffers being almost 2 to 1 better than Vazquez offensively so far. 

I have no doubt that they are working on getting better behind the scenes. However, on the stage they appear to be on auto-pilot. Here is our lineup against left handers and here is our lineup against right handers. Does anyone want to guess the starting lineup and batting order tonight? It's a right hander on the mound. I'll bet you can name 1 through 7. Catcher and CF batting 8th and 9th in the order might see some fluctuation like those guys are the reason we hitting .219 as a team. 

These are our players. The Twins are looking at these players to turn it around. Farmer is what is coming... It's a lot to ask of Farmer to be a difference maker when nobody else seems able to make a difference.

We are on auto-pilot. Grab the wheel please. 

I don't believe the front office built this team with the intention of being at the bottom of so many Cats.

It's looking like the front office doesn't have a back up plan in the case that they were at the bottom of so many Cats. We are over 100 AB's into the season. Slumps are 3 for 25 at the plate. We are beyond a slump. 

 

 

 

[HokieRif]

At some point, preferably sooner rather than later, a change needs to be made with the coaching staff. I find it absolutely impossible for the entire team (except for Alex, because he hasn’t been tainted yet) to be failing this bad if the coaching were even average. I’m looking squarely at our three hitting coaches, and one/all of them need to be dismissed. 

[rv78]

This team is not built to "HIT". They are built to play defense and swing for the fences. When you spend $11M for a Gallo that has a lifetime batting average of .199 and your team can't hit what do you expect? When you trade away your best hitter, the AL Batting Champ, and don't replace his bat with another good bat, what do you expect? The 4 most over-rated players in the lineup of Correa, Buxton, Kepler and Gallo went 1 for 16 last night and are hitting a combined .206. These are the main veterans in a lineup that are suppose to carry the team. The FO has spent over $65M on these 4 guys this year. Add in the other veteran of Polanco at $7.5M and you've got a combined .216 batting average from the core half of your lineup for about $73M. Guess who isn't getting their moneys worth. Yes they are struggling but the FO knew what it was getting in Gallo. They knew Buxton only hit .224 last year. They knew Kepler has only had 1 good season out of 8 total and carries a career .232 BA. Anyone here starting to think Correa was an over-pay which I said from day 1. It's one thing to have your young players like Miranda, Gordon, Larnach, Jeffers struggle. It's almost expected. But you've got to have veterans that can carry the team and sorry to say, the veterans on this team aren't that good and it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Then throw in a Manager that only knows how to win one way, via the HR, and you've got one of the most unproductive hitting teams in baseball. Some of you think they are good enough, they are in first place, they're hitting the ball hard and it'll start falling in. The batting averages will find the "mean" and improve. Games lost in April and May count the same as those lost at the end of the season. What does it take for the FO, the Manager, and the Coaches to be held accountable? The team's only saving grace is that they are in the weakest division in baseball and will probably make the playoffs, by default really. 16800 fans at the game last night. Well, the fans are booing. Does St. Peter have the guts to make the changes that are really needed? So far, No!

[JHelley4]

Its May 9th, we are in first, correa is struggling, he will figure it out, we still havent found our offensive identity, calm down it is not time to panic. Pitching can carry us for a bit while the offense figures it out.

[Riverbrian]

Vazquez is playing 2 out of 3 games and Jeffers 1 out of 3. 

Vazquez is playing twice as much. Jeffers is hitting twice as good. 

Switch them. 

[joefish]

On 5/10/2023 at 4:40 AM, HokieRif said:

At some point, preferably sooner rather than later, a change needs to be made with the coaching staff. I find it absolutely impossible for the entire team (except for Alex, because he hasn’t been tainted yet) to be failing this bad if the coaching were even average. I’m looking squarely at our three hitting coaches, and one/all of them need to be dismissed. 

How about Toby too. 

[HoskenPowell]

Well your mega million star has done ZERO.

Miranda has been horrible on the field and the batters box.

And Buxton has been sub par at the 1/2 of the game he does play.

 

[whitsbrain]

Makes you wonder about our coaching staff and front office over the past few years when you see what a few recent Twins have been up to this season...

MLB leaders in AVG: #1 - Luis Arraez (by 50 pts), #11 - Brent Rooker, #24 - Gio Urshela

MLB leaders in OBP: #1 - Luis Arraez, #3 - LaMonte Wade, #4 - Brent Rooker

MLB leaders in SLG: #1 - Brent Rooker, #24 - LaMonte Wade

MLB leaders in OPS: #1 - Brent Rooker (by 40 pts), #7 - LaMonte Wade, #11 - Luis Arraez

For the record, I was fine with the Arraez for Lopez trade.  But right now, the numbers above really sting when you see the current Twins roster struggling to generate offense.

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, HoskenPowell said:

Well your mega million star has done ZERO.

Miranda has been horrible on the field and the batters box.

And Buxton has been sub par at the 1/2 of the game he does play.

 

Dang, 26% above average, and 54th best bat in baseball (according to wRC+) is "sub par?" Tough crowd.

[jkcarew]

On 5/8/2023 at 10:11 PM, stringer bell said:

Don’t want to minimize how bad the hitting has been, but somehow the Twins rank in the middle of the pack (14th) in runs scored, which IMHO is the most important statistic. 

Yep. It’s because our ISO (basically HR and XBH ratios) are well into the top half of the league. Our method of being average doesn’t line up with the traditional ‘average’ lineup where everyone hits 230-300 with moderate K and HR numbers.

2023

[jkcarew]

On 5/9/2023 at 11:12 AM, USAFChief said:

So, long story short, despite a few double digit games, the Twins offense is too consistently weak, scoring too few runs too often.

Yep…an offense built on hitting the ball over the dense as opposed to contact and base running is going to be less consistent even if producing the same amount of runs over the long haul.

It’s where the entire league is, though. The Twins, unfortunately, are just an extreme example.

[jkcarew]

Fwiw…combination of low BA with high XBH/HR%…which is exactly what the Twins are…is the best reason ever to NOT bunt guys to second base…ever.

[August J Gloop]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=MIN&year=2023

The team has hit better with runners on than not. Even better if there's a (more on that later) runner in scoring position. The weirdest thing? They seem to hit better with two outs. Basically the same low OPS with 1 and two outs. Then it jumps over 100 points with two outs. 

They've scored only 14 more runs total with 0 or two outs than they have with 2 outs. That just isn't sustainable. There's no way the team will keep getting their hits sequenced like this.

They Rays have scored 53 more runs with 0 or 1 out than they have with 2 outs.  (Look how many more runs the Rays have scored than the Twins! 77! That's almost 2 per game!)

The biggest impact to scoring, though, is twofold. They're struggling getting good rallies going, and when the best rally situations have turned up, they've been turned away more often than not. 

The've had 38 PAs with the bases loaded and 18 with runners on 2&3.  In those 56 PAs, they have 24 (!!!) runs. (The Rays? Glad you asked. 72 PAs, 62 runs. A clearly better ratio.) There is no way the team will keep up a .214/.389/.286 All year in those situations, certainly not the putrid  .129/.180/.129 that they currently rock with the sacks packed. 

If all they had done in those situations was roughly what they've done overall in men on situations (which technically does include these failures) They'd have hit 2 homers, 2 doubles and 4 additional singles. That means they'd have at a minimum 20 more runs. That's saying no grand slams and no 3 run doubles. I know it doesn't sound all that amazing, but look at what it does to the pythag. 24 - 14 seems a lot cooler than 21 - 17.  

And it's pretty easy to find all the bases loaded situations that have cost them games this year. I'll save you the wall of text, but just getting an outfield single in 5 or 6 of these situations would have them easily at 25 - 13. 

I'll leave it to others to think that there's anything but weird luck at play in bases loaded situations. If you look at the 1st and 3rd they hit fine in the same number of PAs. I can't imagine that there's somehow any more pressure when the bases are loaded. It's not process, it's uncontrollable outcomes overall. Heck, they've only struck out in 11 of those situations overall (19% vs 25%). Look at that BABIP!! (.206). I just don't think drastic action is required. Just a little patience ad lets some of these unlikely numbers  

[mikelink45]

On 5/8/2023 at 10:11 PM, stringer bell said:

Don’t want to minimize how bad the hitting has been, but somehow the Twins rank in the middle of the pack (14th) in runs scored, which IMHO is the most important statistic. 

Except that they built that statistic over a few games where they went wild - before settling back to their 2 runs or less pattern.

[mikelink45]

Tonights lineup has three starters under 200, 4 under 250, and Solano 269 and Polanco 276.  Kyle Farmer in the clean up spots tells you everything you need to know. 

Kiriloff must be getting a day off along with Gallo and his 200 average. 

[August J Gloop]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Tonights lineup has three starters under 200, 4 under 250, and Solano 269 and Polanco 276.  Kyle Farmer in the clean up spots tells you everything you need to know. 

Kiriloff must be getting a day off along with Gallo and his 200 average. 

Yes, that a lefthanded starter is pitching, who despite this season has pretty traditional splits. 

Kyle Farmer has a career OPS vs lefties of .829. He's a cleanup hitter VS lefties. 

[h2oface]

On 5/10/2023 at 9:54 AM, JHelley4 said:

Its May 9th, we are in first, correa is struggling, he will figure it out, we still havent found our offensive identity, calm down it is not time to panic. Pitching can carry us for a bit while the offense figures it out.

We are in first. This is the problematic attitude that is easy to latch onto. We are barely above .500. We are first in the Central, sure. Yesterday we were also tied for last if in the AL East. We saw how quickly the we are in first disappeared last September, and we went from barely over .500 and in first to losing the division by 14 whopping games, finishing 6 games under .500 while Cleveland left us in the dust at 22 games over .500. Being satisfied you are about .500 because you are first in a crummy division is a fools gambit, and doesn't mean much if one just says oh well, things will be figured out. into the 7th week, 38 games, about 1/4 of the entire season, and this is our team, our offensive identity, not to be taken lightly. 

[Joey Self]

I am watching the Marlins and the Reds as I type this.  

You know what may have helped the offense?

NOT TRADING ARRAEZ. 

JcS (who is STILL sore about that) (That part in caps was supposed to be in HUGE letters. Pretend it is)

[Twodogs]

On 5/9/2023 at 11:00 AM, raindog said:

Batting average isn't a great metric these days, at least not alone. 

Unfortunately, they are also 21st in wOBA and 18th in expected wOBA, lol. 

Edit: In good news, they are 2nd in wOBA allowed, and 1st in xWOBA allowed.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team

 

I mean batting average isnt a great metric if it doesn't fit our narrative.  I mean I really want the Twins to be good, they are doing ok, so batting average doesn't mean anything.  But if you look at the top 10 teams in batting average, they are all doing good with the exception of St Louis and Colorado.  St. Louis is like the Bazaro Twins with decent hitting and terrible pitching, and I'm guessing because of where they play that Colorado will always have a decent batting average.  

 

I mean, I'm trying to look at the Twins hitting as a positive, I mean they are doing well and they can't hit, you have to think that some of the guys will heat up eventually and they will start to hit a little bit.  If the pitching maintains at a decent level the Twins should only get better, right?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 5/10/2023 at 7:25 AM, Riverbrian said:

Looking at the offense, On May 10, 2023... The Twins are healthy. Just Farmer on the DL.

These are the guys. This is the roster that got us here and will have to get us out of here apparently. 

These 7 positions are seemingly primarily locked. 

1B - Kirilloff

2B - Polanco

3B - Miranda

SS - Correa

LF - Gallo

RF - Kepler

DH - Buxton

CF - Taylor and Gordon appear to be splitting time. 

C - Vazquez is playing 2 to 1 over Jeffers despite Jeffers being almost 2 to 1 better than Vazquez offensively so far. 

I have no doubt that they are working on getting better behind the scenes. However, on the stage they appear to be on auto-pilot. Here is our lineup against left handers and here is our lineup against right handers. Does anyone want to guess the starting lineup and batting order tonight? It's a right hander on the mound. I'll bet you can name 1 through 7. Catcher and CF batting 8th and 9th in the order might see some fluctuation like those guys are the reason we hitting .219 as a team. 

These are our players. The Twins are looking at these players to turn it around. Farmer is what is coming... It's a lot to ask of Farmer to be a difference maker when nobody else seems able to make a difference.

We are on auto-pilot. Grab the wheel please. 

I don't believe the front office built this team with the intention of being at the bottom of so many Cats.

It's looking like the front office doesn't have a back up plan in the case that they were at the bottom of so many Cats. We are over 100 AB's into the season. Slumps are 3 for 25 at the plate. We are beyond a slump. 

 

 

 

A week later, Twins are ranked 25th, no longer in the cellar, and are hitting .231

by wRC+ they are ranked 16. Amazing what a 30 run weekend can do for you!

Farmer is back, Miranda demoted, looking forward to Kepler and Lewis returning.

this team will likely not be an offensive juggernaut, but also still shows some promise for improvement 

[Squirrel]

12 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

this team will likely not be an offensive juggernaut, but also still shows some promise for improvement 

This team doesn’t need to be a juggernaut, they just need to have enough to get it done. It’s always had the potential, just gotta show it consistently. And I like the promise of what I’m seeing lately.