Mets Also Have Medical Concerns about Carlos Correa

[mikelink45]

6 hours ago, PseudoSABR said:

What does this even mean?

Have you noticed our injured players versus other teams?  And not just this year.

[mikelink45]

6 hours ago, PseudoSABR said:

What does this even mean?

TEAMS WITH MOST INJURED PLAYERS

[Muppet]

I’d say 3 years for 40 million. If he’s still not injured, he can shoot for his big(ger) payday with some NY team. 

[nicksaviking]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Not necessarily. From what I’m gathering, both teams are concerned about his ability to stay healthy and effective long term into his late 30s. The risk is not as significant on a shorter term deal. 

But the team doctors should have still been aware of the issue right? And the Twins offer should have already been with this issue squarely in mind?

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

Have you noticed our injured players versus other teams?  And not just this year.

That's 2011, which I think means two general managers ago.

/  Oops, I hit reply to the wrong one of your two posts.

[chinmusic]

I enjoyed watching Correa this year, both as a shortstop, and  also as a leader on the field.

However, speed is not one of his attributes.

Was he notably faster earlier in his career with the Astros?

 

[Vanimal46]

30 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

But the team doctors should have still been aware of the issue right? And the Twins offer should have already been with this issue squarely in mind?

Perhaps that’s why they’re not budging from 10/285. Already cooked in the risk in their first offer. I don’t know, just spitballing here. 

What I’m reading is that physicals are more thorough and comprehensive with long term deals. Twins doctors could have detected it but it was worth the risk. Since he was only signed for a 1, up to 3 year term. 

[Bradfoot]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

TEAMS WITH MOST INJURED PLAYERS

Deep dive into number of players injured each of last 5 years.  Seems like 2022 was an outlier.

MLB 2022 Injured Reserve Tracker | Spotrac

2022 - Twins ranked 3rd with 32 players injured

(team) (number of players) (number of days) (amount of money on injured list)

Cincinnati Reds    37    2,638    $33,712,787
Pittsburgh Pirates    34    1,730    $10,499,570
Chicago Cubs    32    2,158    $45,160,984
Minnesota Twins    32    2,363    $32,712,075
San Francisco Giants    31    1,462    $39,365,278

2021
Twins ranked 16th most injured players with 28 

2020

Twins ranked 19th most with 14 players

2019

Twins ranked 16th most with 19 players

2018

Twins ranked 19th with 18 players

[D.C Twins]

I haven't seen Boras acting desperately many times in his career. He is the best in his business for a reason.

He seems to have started acting desperately after the SF medical review.

That made me very suspicious about a potential chronic injury related to his leg/ankle. 

The Mets reluctance only adds to the suspicion. 

High AAV for 5 or less years is the only rational way to go at this point for any team (not that Cohen has to be rational). Unfortunately, it is most likely the Mets are still the most likely to provide the best one of these offers.... 

Twins best hope is that Boras and Correa are feeling a bit vindictive with the big market teams and would take a strong AAV short duration contract with them. 

[Thebigalguy]

These 10+ year contracts are ridiculous. I have nothing against a player making out like Hercules against some billionaire, but the sport is becoming farcical. Can’t wait to see what Ohtani gets.

[mikelink45]

7 hours ago, Bradfoot said:

Deep dive into number of players injured each of last 5 years.  Seems like 2022 was an outlier.

MLB 2022 Injured Reserve Tracker | Spotrac

2022 - Twins ranked 3rd with 32 players injured

(team) (number of players) (number of days) (amount of money on injured list)

Cincinnati Reds    37    2,638    $33,712,787
Pittsburgh Pirates    34    1,730    $10,499,570
Chicago Cubs    32    2,158    $45,160,984
Minnesota Twins    32    2,363    $32,712,075
San Francisco Giants    31    1,462    $39,365,278

2021
Twins ranked 16th most injured players with 28 

2020

Twins ranked 19th most with 14 players

2019

Twins ranked 16th most with 19 players

2018

Twins ranked 19th with 18 players

All those numbers continually put us in the bottom half of the teams.  The Reds and Pirates and Cubs were terrible teams in 2022 we do not want to be ranked with them.    The average for those five years is 20th.  I will stay with my comment.

[Squirrel]

38 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

All those numbers continually put us in the bottom half of the teams.  The Reds and Pirates and Cubs were terrible teams in 2022 we do not want to be ranked with them.    The average for those five years is 20th.  I will stay with my comment.

I’ll grant it’s not good but your comment said ‘worst’ and you’ve proven otherwise

[Squirrel]

9 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

But the team doctors should have still been aware of the issue right? And the Twins offer should have already been with this issue squarely in mind?

Short term vs long term risk is I think what we are seeing, not that the Twins were remiss in anything when they signed him last year. Maybe the significantly less offer did take this into consideration. And someone else pointed out in the other thread that insuring him for long term because of the leg could be a factor. At what year does insurance draw the line? I’m not so certain this issue is that something is wrong right now but that doctors and insurance companies are concerned with how his repaired leg will hold up in the latter parts of a 10-13 yr contract.

If he wants a 10 yr deal at this point I think it will be for less money and one that is seriously front loaded and/or incentive based

[mikelink45]

17 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

I’ll grant it’s not good but your comment said ‘worst’ and you’ve proven otherwise

Okay - I will conceded we are just really bad at the health issue, not the worst!  

[Major League Ready]

My guess is that there will be a contract provision that addresses time lost to the specific concern.  In other words, Boras will say OK, if he loses time due to this specific problem, compensation is altered accordingly.  He will attempt to keep the rest of the contract as close to the original agreement as possible.  

[Heezy1323]

Here's my $0.02: (I have no insider info)

I think the most likely scenario is that Correa fell into the Twins lap quickly last year, and everyone recognized it was most likely a 1 year arrangement. So the level of due diligence required by the medical staff is lower. Imaging of all prior nicks/bruises isn't necessary in that case.

This time around given the commitment of 10+ years, teams were being more diligent and likely getting new imaging of any body part that had ever been treated for an injury (surgically or not). 

My guess is that the imaging of his ankle shows some early arthritis related to the ankle fracture that was fixed 8 years ago. This is something that is essentially impossible to "fix" in the traditional sense. And it may be mild enough at this point in time that it isn't causing him any significant symptoms (hence no issue made of it last offseason). But imaging can still show some early signs of arthritis, even before a person has symptoms. My guess is that the Giants docs saw this, and said something to the effect of, "This ankle has some early arthritis. This is something that generally is going to get worse over time, at a rate that is impossible to know. As it worsens, it is likely to affect Correa's ability to perform quick movements and may require a position change. Worst case scenario, it could be progress more rapidly and be a significant hindrance to him playing at an effective level."

There are certainly other possible explanations. This is the one that seems to fit the circumstances best as I think about it. 

Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays all. 

[Bradfoot]

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

All those numbers continually put us in the bottom half of the teams.  The Reds and Pirates and Cubs were terrible teams in 2022 we do not want to be ranked with them.    The average for those five years is 20th.  I will stay with my comment.

The bottom half is good though.  It means less injured players.  19th most injured players means 11th fewest.

 

It was only 2022 that we ranked high with reds, pirates, cubs.

[AlGoreRythm]

15 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

If they do it at a discount, they’d have to fire their team doctors right? They’d basically be saying that last year the Twins doctors were incapable of detecting what the Giants and Mets doctors did.

 

They literally replaced the head trainer as one of their first staffing moves this off-season.

They also were probably not looking deeply into medical issues that could be an issue down the road 10 years in his 1-3 years contract. 

[mikelink45]

2020 - 32 players 2363 games missed

2021 - 28 players 1713 games missed

2020 - short season 14 players 389 games missed

2019 - 19 players - 629 games

2018 - 18 players - 1052 games

This is the summary of games missed - I concede that we are not the worst, but...

[Dave The Dastardly]

11 hours ago, Bradfoot said:

Deep dive into number of players injured each of last 5 years.  Seems like 2022 was an outlier.

MLB 2022 Injured Reserve Tracker | Spotrac

2022 - Twins ranked 3rd with 32 players injured

(team) (number of players) (number of days) (amount of money on injured list)

Cincinnati Reds    37    2,638    $33,712,787
Pittsburgh Pirates    34    1,730    $10,499,570
Chicago Cubs    32    2,158    $45,160,984
Minnesota Twins    32    2,363    $32,712,075
San Francisco Giants    31    1,462    $39,365,278

2021
Twins ranked 16th most injured players with 28 

2020

Twins ranked 19th most with 14 players

2019

Twins ranked 16th most with 19 players

2018

Twins ranked 19th with 18 players

Does MLB have its own group insurance plan? What's the players deductible?

[MarcF]

22 hours ago, RJA said:

I can't see Cohen allowing Correa to get away regardless of the medical issue.  They will strike a bargain of some kind to get him to NY.  Cohen wants to win, period.  It must be that he aggravated the fibula repair in some way this year.  But, he certainly didn't close the year looking like he was bothered by it as he closed strong.

Exactly. No doubt Correa would rather make $250 million with a shorter contract with the Mets, who are actually trying to buy a WS appearance, than the Twins who are many years away from even contending for a playoff series. 

[PDX Twin]

19 hours ago, Brandon said:

I think the other owners chimed in and said something to him along the lines of we will make sure no one goes above a certain spending amount in the next CBA if your going to spend like this.  Also the Mets are probably thinking about 12 years down the road or even 8 or 9 and wondering how Correa will hold up.  I think Correa can play another 10 years but I bet the last 3 won’t be all star caliber play.  

Correa was not an all-star last year, was he?

[Trov]

If two teams backed out of huge contracts after agreeing and having physicals, I would not be standing by a 10 year deal.  I mean neither the Giants or the Mets are really expecting much from CC at end of contracts, so they must have been much more concerned about the mid years.  Why would we swoop in and ignore what 2 teams have had issues with? 

[Boswell]

On the fifth day of Correamas…

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/giants/mlb-rumors-carlos-correa-not-interested-mets-contract-restructure?amp

yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus, and C4 may come back to us on a high AAV, low year, opt out contract.  Take him off the market and pray we somehow rocket to top ten in terms of health!

Anyone care to calculate what percentage of Twins payroll or expected WAR was lost to injured reserve in 2022? Any sense of comparison to other teams?

[Trov]

I have to wonder what kind of physical, or why our doctors may have had different thoughts after last year?  I mean we still did one, and I get the contract lengths very different, but we were still willing to offer 10 year deal, and did something change in the year, or did our doctors not see what two team doctors have, or did they just have different opinion? Rumors are we wanted a closer look as well before jumping in. 

[Battle ur tail off]

On 12/24/2022 at 6:32 PM, Vanimal46 said:

He may just end up in a Twins uniform again… And all of their leverage is gone if New York also bows out. Correa at a discount and reduced years is an ideal situation for the Twins. 

But is it realistic that this happens? The articles I read said Correa at this point was not interested in restructuring the length or dollar value of his contract. 

To get him, IMO, the Twins would have to call his camp today and offer that same 12/315 that the Mets did and tell him they basically will just take a chance on his health. 

Not sure the Twins would do this and I doubt some short term deal does it. Unless they are willing to do something like 3/150 or something like that. I don't even think that would get it done. 

[Brandon]

On 12/25/2022 at 8:33 AM, PDX Twin said:

Correa was not an all-star last year, was he?

Being 41% better than the average player is typically an All Star.  That was his end of season numbers.

[jorgenswest]

Maybe this is the opportunity for the Twins to sign an elite free agent long term. If there are no health concerns they can’t match the Giants or the Mets. It is a huge risk to sign him but could come with a huge payoff.

[Riverbrian]

On 12/25/2022 at 8:37 AM, Heezy1323 said:

Here's my $0.02: (I have no insider info)

I think the most likely scenario is that Correa fell into the Twins lap quickly last year, and everyone recognized it was most likely a 1 year arrangement. So the level of due diligence required by the medical staff is lower. Imaging of all prior nicks/bruises isn't necessary in that case.

This time around given the commitment of 10+ years, teams were being more diligent and likely getting new imaging of any body part that had ever been treated for an injury (surgically or not). 

My guess is that the imaging of his ankle shows some early arthritis related to the ankle fracture that was fixed 8 years ago. This is something that is essentially impossible to "fix" in the traditional sense. And it may be mild enough at this point in time that it isn't causing him any significant symptoms (hence no issue made of it last offseason). But imaging can still show some early signs of arthritis, even before a person has symptoms. My guess is that the Giants docs saw this, and said something to the effect of, "This ankle has some early arthritis. This is something that generally is going to get worse over time, at a rate that is impossible to know. As it worsens, it is likely to affect Correa's ability to perform quick movements and may require a position change. Worst case scenario, it could be progress more rapidly and be a significant hindrance to him playing at an effective level."

There are certainly other possible explanations. This is the one that seems to fit the circumstances best as I think about it. 

Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays all. 

Thanks for this. 

There are two paragraphs that I don't understand.

I think the most likely scenario is that Correa fell into the Twins lap quickly last year, and everyone recognized it was most likely a 1 year arrangement. So the level of due diligence required by the medical staff is lower. Imaging of all prior nicks/bruises isn't necessary in that case.

This time around given the commitment of 10+ years, teams were being more diligent and likely getting new imaging of any body part that had ever been treated for an injury (surgically or not). 

Thinking it's a 1 year arrangement is logical to me if he performs as hoped. However, the deal was a three year commitment with an AAV over 35 big ones if things go wrong. Injury is perhaps the primary risk of how things could have gone wrong. An underlying injury is something the team would need to be aware of (thrown together quickly or not) since they absorbed all of the risk. Over 100 million dollars worth of risk.

Carlos had the opts outs so in my limited thinking, while I understand the difference betwen 12 years and 3, still the level of due diligence required should be at least similar to the level the Giants and Mets put forth. 

Lower level due diligence makes no sense to me when you consider that 35 million out of a limited budget for a crippled player would cripple the franchise for the next two years.   

 

[Heezy1323]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Thanks for this. 

There are two paragraphs that I don't understand.

I think the most likely scenario is that Correa fell into the Twins lap quickly last year, and everyone recognized it was most likely a 1 year arrangement. So the level of due diligence required by the medical staff is lower. Imaging of all prior nicks/bruises isn't necessary in that case.

This time around given the commitment of 10+ years, teams were being more diligent and likely getting new imaging of any body part that had ever been treated for an injury (surgically or not). 

Thinking it's a 1 year arrangement is logical to me if he performs as hoped. However, the deal was a three year commitment with an AAV over 35 big ones if things go wrong. Injury is perhaps the primary risk of how things could have gone wrong. An underlying injury is something the team would need to be aware of (thrown together quickly or not) since they absorbed all of the risk. Over 100 million dollars worth of risk.

Carlos had the opts outs so in my limited thinking, while I understand the difference betwen 12 years and 3, still the level of due diligence required should be at least similar to the level the Giants and Mets put forth. 

Lower level due diligence makes no sense to me when you consider that 35 million out of a limited budget for a crippled player would cripple the franchise for the next two years.   

 

IMO, this wasn’t a 3 year deal. It was a “3 year deal” in which essentially everyone involved knew it was a one year deal absent extraordinarily unusual circumstances. 
 You’re welcome to disagree with my reasoning. I have no idea if I’m correct or not. It’s just the most plausible explanation to me given what we know.