Rumor: Some Correa Rumors, Twins Offering Multiple Packages

[CRF]

LaVelle put this out there yesterday on the Chin Music Podcast about CC. The Twins are reportedly offering different length deals at different AAVs. 

https://www.si.com/fannation/bringmethesports/twins/report-twins-offering-carlos-correa-multiple-contract-lengths-values?src=rss

 

View full rumor

[terrydactyls]

That's a smart approach.  But if Boras wants to stretch this out to February, the Twins should withdraw their offer and go after Dansby Swanson.  Good offensive  numbers and Gold Glove defense.  And cheaper!

[CRF]

I definitely could live with Swanson...he's a damn good SS and swings a pretty good stick too, but I'd be shocked if Atl lets him get away. There's a lot of time before ST, so it might be a while before stuff starts to happen. 

[mnfireman]

Does an agent who publicly states that he plans to drag his client's contract talks into February or March really have the client's best interests in mind? It is certainly not in any teams best interests. Boras has both Correa and Bogaerts as clients, so this tells me that he plans to do the same thing for Bogaerts as well, hoping to ensure landing spots for both as well as keeping the salary offers from dropping due to lack of competition among teams.

[nicksaviking]

6 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Does an agent who publicly states that he plans to drag his client's contract talks into February or March really have the client's best interests in mind? It is certainly not in any teams best interests. Boras has both Correa and Bogaerts as clients, so this tells me that he plans to do the same thing for Bogaerts as well, hoping to ensure landing spots for both as well as keeping the salary offers from dropping due to lack of competition among teams.

Boras won't be doing anything Correa doesn't want him to do. If Correa wants to squeeze every dime out of the highest bidder by signing late, Boras will help him do that. If Correa wants to go somewhere particular but get as much money as he can from that club, Boras will help him do that.  If Correa's top priority is getting the best deal he can early in the off season so he doesn't have to think about it all winter, he'll help him do that too.

When you pay an agent that much, he's more than happy to take the blame for any unpopular prerogative the player may have.

[Seth Stohs]

here is the link to the podcast so we can listen to exactly what was said. 

 

https://share.transistor.fm/s/b282c161 

[DocBauer]

Without knowing any of the exact details of the three different offers, I like the approach being taken. And if I'm Correa and Boras, I think I'd like this approach as well, as it's allowing them a huge "here it is for 10yrs" OR the ability for a very high AAV and the ability to re-enter the market again in a few years. 

I think most of us have generally held the position that some sort of opt out would need to be included to re-sign him, granting Correa and Boras the opportunity to maximize financial opportunity. Now, that doesn't mean someone can't come in from one of the major markets and just go 10yrs and $330M and just blow up any chance the Twins have. And, unfortunately, any kind of opt out isn't a "win" for the Twins as your star player could be gone in 3 or 4 years to a potentially bigger deal after he already made a small king's ransom. But it's a way of getting a deal done that might actually make sense and work.

I don't know that any comments about stretching out negotiations until January or February shouldn't be taken with a grain of salt. I don't know that you'd expect an agent to say anything else, even though that strategy didn't work out the way they hoped last year. I think Correa is being very open and honest in his desire to remain a Twin. I mean, he's talking to Buxton weekly and was face timing with Twins players during the new uniform unveiling! Assuming the various Twins offers are actually high and truly competitive...not some "well, it's fair and a record high for US"...and Correa likes them and wants to stay, there really would no reason to "hold out".

The Twins FO is well respected by agents in general, and they've had a good working relationship with Boras. And I have to think Correa, as a potential Twin again, would appreciate getting things done, if he's happy, so the Twins can move forward with additional moves. Pure speculation on my part, but again, not sure you'd expect an agent to say anything different.

And while Correa is definitely their #1 target, Boras also representing their #2 target in Bogaerts helps the Twins change direction if things just get out of hand market wise.

I like what I'm hearing. I'm far more optimistic about a reunion with Correa than I was a few weeks ago. I'm also far more optimistic that the Twins are serious about landing ONE of the top 4. But it still remains to be seen if other organizations just blow the lid off the market.

Finally, total $ to spend is still in question, and depends some on whether Kepler is kept or moved. That's another $8M+ to add to the budget, potentially. But there's enough open payroll either way  for the FO to still ADD and move forward with their plans for 2023 while still leaving that HUGE $ value for a SS add. Waiting and being patient can pay off in the long run at times, but they can't afford to just wait around for another catcher, a RH bat, and maybe a quality SP. I mean, if Kepler IS moved, they've got a potential $70+ M to work with! And Correa, or any other SS, still only takes up a portion of that.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Boras won't be doing anything Correa doesn't want him to do. If Correa wants to squeeze every dime out of the highest bidder by signing late, Boras will help him do that. If Correa wants to go somewhere particular but get as much money as he can from that club, Boras will help him do that.  If Correa's top priority is getting the best deal he can early in the off season so he doesn't have to think about it all winter, he'll help him do that too.

When you pay an agent that much, he's more than happy to take the blame for any unpopular prerogative the player may have.

Correa fired his old agent for a reason. Stating you’re dragging it out, and actually dragging it out too long, are very different things.

[dxpavelka]

8 years, $275 Million is what it's gonna take at minimum on both--Unless it drags into March.  Pay that now and get it done.  Opt out shouldn't bother anyone if you honestly believe that Lewis, Martin & Lee are viable future options.

[AlwaysinModeration]

So, if LaVelle says it is three offers, one 10, one 8 and one 6 that is over 30/year, the offers could be:

6x31 = 186  (opt out after 3)

8x28 = 214  (opt out after 3, 5)

10x25 = 250 (opt out after 3, 5)

[Dr Katz]

Correa is a talented player but he is only one player. A team can get a player with talent almost as good as him for much less, then still have funds left to get several more key players that are needed. This salary for a single player is way out of hand. Think about it! 

[Nashvilletwin]

It’s an interesting bidding situation. On one hand you have four sellers. If there are five or more buyers willing to purchase any of the four (even not necessarily at the same price), and it appears there are, then it most likely will maximise the value of the last seller to wait until the end. From a buyer’s perspective, you may want to overpay slightly early in the process so as to avoid having to overpay if it appears you may get shut out in the musical chairs at the end (and particularly if you are marginally more budget conscious than the other bidders),

It behooves the Twins to slightly over pay early in the process for their top target. For Boras, he very possibly may find himself in a conflicted situation in that the interests of each of his clients are not necessarily aligned - not that he cares, However, if one, on the margin, would prefer one buyer over the others, his best strategy as the agent for two sellers is to get one deal done early at a slight over pay with the seller with a preference and then build greater value as the sellers diminish for his second client.

[TopGunn#22]

I think Doc Bauer and "Always in Moderation" have this dialed in pretty well.  I'm all for signing Correa to any of those deals.  Like Buxton last winter, he's our #1 priority.  I also like Bogaerts as a solid #2 if things get too rich for Correa.  Having the varying lengths also allows the Twins to have a contingency plan if Correa opts out with Lewis or Lee waiting in the wings.  Any team with a Carlos Correa is better WITH him than without him (with the obvious exception being the World Champion Astros).  :)  

I still think while that $8 million could help sign other free agents, that Kepler's trade value is pretty low.  I'd consider a deal straight up for Lourdes Gurriel to give us a solid RH bat in our OF,  but I'd hang onto Max one more year as my 4th outfielder and package Larnach to get us a bigger piece, like Jansen at catcher, or a Woodruff/Lopez #1 top of our rotation pitcher.  I'd hate to move Larnach.  I think he'll be a Jesse Winker style hitter.  But with Kirilloff and Wallner (and Max for one more year) trading Larnach to upgrade catcher or the rotation would be better use of resources.  

[Squirrel]

2 hours ago, Dr Katz said:

Correa is a talented player but he is only one player. A team can get a player with talent almost as good as him for much less, then still have funds left to get several more key players that are needed. This salary for a single player is way out of hand. Think about it! 

So what player is just as good that will cost us less?

[Squirrel]

3 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

So, if LaVelle says it is three offers, one 10, one 8 and one 6 that is over 30/year, the offers could be:

6x31 = 186  (opt out after 3)

8x28 = 214  (opt out after 3, 5)

10x25 = 250 (opt out after 3, 5)

I don’t think that’s enough to get the deal done but we’ll see, hopefully sooner than later

[Stew]

No matter the length of contract, the twins should offer an opt out after two years. Both for the team and player. We have so many shortstops almost ready that it seems to make sense.also we may need other positions in two years  and not have enough money to spend.

[FlyingFinn]

I don't want to offer an opt out on a long-term deal. Correa gets a career ending injury and your internal cap has just been reduced by $25-$30 million. I would love to see Correa on the Twins for the next 5 years though. It really changes everything for the roster for 2023. Lewis immediately changes to the OF instead of SS and I can see this triggering a Kepler trade as Larnach/Wallner would be the future in the other OF position and we could use his $ elsewhere. 

[Major League Ready]

43 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

So what player is just as good that will cost us less?

The better option is not necessarily another single player.  The question is could they spread $300M to alternatives that yield greater production. Can they come up with a DJ LeMahieu who in 2019 produced more WAR for 1/3 of the money or another Nelson Cruz who produced more than double per dollar spent compared to Correa or can they extend a player like the Guardians did in Ramirez and get equivalent production for a $20M / AAV and not have the end of contract burden which almost always means very little production for a lot of money.

Who will be better next year.  Who knows?  When you are at the very top of the pay scale there is a good chance someone produces the same for less but Correa is as good a bet as any.  That’s not the real issue.  If he gets a 9-year deal, who will be better for the last 5 years.  History would suggest a lot of free agents will be better for less but the even better alternative is extending players like Ramirez, Acuna, and many others.  That’s likely the much better investment.
 

[Squirrel]

12 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

The better option is not necessarily another single player.  The question is could they spread $300M to alternatives that yield greater production. Can they come up with a DJ LeMahieu who in 2019 produced more WAR for 1/3 of the money or another Nelson Cruz who produced more than double per dollar spent compared to Correa or can they extend a player like the Guardians did in Ramirez and get equivalent production for a $20M / AAV and not have the end of contract burden which almost always means very little production for a lot of money.

Who will be better next year.  Who knows?  When you are at the very top of the pay scale there is a good chance someone produces the same for less but Correa is as good a bet as any.  That’s not the real issue.  If he gets a 9-year deal, who will be better for the last 5 years.  History would suggest a lot of free agents will be better for less but the even better alternative is extending players like Ramirez, Acuna, and many others.  That’s likely the much better investment.
 

That’s not what I asked and what was stated. What SS is available who is just as good and costs less. I get the quantity over quality argument you are making but that wasn’t my question

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

So, if LaVelle says it is three offers, one 10, one 8 and one 6 that is over 30/year, the offers could be:

6x31 = 186  (opt out after 3)

8x28 = 214  (opt out after 3, 5)

10x25 = 250 (opt out after 3, 5)

I'm relatively confident that last number is higher based on what I've heard rumbling about over the past week. Which makes me think the first two numbers are probably higher, too.

[Rosterman]

I hope one is spending an equal amount to Correa's salary on other players to make a winning team.

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, AlwaysinModeration said:

So, if LaVelle says it is three offers, one 10, one 8 and one 6 that is over 30/year, the offers could be:

6x31 = 186  (opt out after 3)

8x28 = 214  (opt out after 3, 5)

10x25 = 250 (opt out after 3, 5)

I think Twins fans like each of these, but they may be a little light. Hopefully you are right on.

My guess is:

6 x 35 = 210

8 x 32 = 256

10 x 30 = 300

Agree with those opt outs.

[nicksaviking]

The fact that the Yankees have been tied to just about every top free agent EXCEPT for the four shortstops is a great sign. Seems likely they're all-systems-go with their prospects.

[nicksaviking]

https://www.mlb.com/dodgers/news/dodgers-needs-in-2022-23-offseason
 

The Dodgers too aren’t expected to go after the four shortstops.

So far, the rumors this off season are working in the Twins favor.