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This season's forecast. Darkening clouds. Stormy weather ahead.


So there's still 52 games left in this season.  But based on the past couple of weeks, the future of this year's Twins looks bleak.  The Twins are 7-9 so far in the second half.  I appreciate the moves the Twins tried to make in acquiring Mahle, Fulmer, Lopez, and Leon.  But it's clear the Twins are at best a .500 club and with Cleveland and Chicago smelling blood, these sharks won't be missing an opportunity for an easy meal.  Considering that the Twins have 6 of their last 9 meetings against the White Sox in Chicago, and 5 of their last 8 against the Guardians in Cleveland, I think it's safe to assume the Twins front office should now be thinking about the 2023 season.  One might say that pitching was the ultimate undoing of the Twins this season.  But the undependable offense and error prone field defense can take a share of the blame.  Not that the Guardians or White Sox are that much better (or worse) in the statistical areas.  But some key stats shine.  Guardians have 29 saves.  White Sox 31 saves.  Twins only 21 saves.  Combined team ERAs are 3.86 for Cleveland.  3.92 for Chicago.  4.10 for the Twins.  Other stats bother me less (only 20 stolen bases, lowest in the league).  The Twins are not a "bad" team.  And they've had their share of setbacks/injuries to deal with.  But so have Cleveland and Chicago.  It just appears that the Twins have run out of gas, while Cleveland and Chicago seem to have the wind behind their backs.  And I wouldn't count on a wild card spot.  There are too many "better" teams in the mix.  So front office, what are you going to do to make this team better in 2023?  I wait with anxious anticipation!

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They are what we knew they'd be at the beginning of the season, enough offense to carry them (3rd in r/g inAL), pretty bad pitching. It's a lot better than last year's pitching staff though, so, progress. 

We might still win the central but I doubt any of the three teams pulls away. We'll see.

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It’s been known for some time that it’s either win the division or be out of the playoffs. 85 wins is probably going to be enough to win the Central and all 3 teams are capable of doing it. 

We’ve got a fairly easy 10 game stretch against LAA, KC and Texas. Winning 7 or more out of 10 is crucial. 

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2 hours ago, killebrewlover said:

So there's still 52 games left in this season.  But based on the past couple of weeks, the future of this year's Twins looks bleak. 

The Twins are overmatched against the great teams (Dodgers, Yankees, Astros) and have 7 games left against them. Even before the trade deadline the Twins were a winning team against everyone else. Beat the White Sox and Guardians more than they beat us the rest of the way and I think the Twins will be in the playoffs.

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I'm curious how many people actually care at this point whether they make the playoffs or not. I think I don't. If they sneak in by winning a really poor division, we all "know" that they will not make it past the first round anyway, and all indications are that they will extend their streak of futility. I like to see the team win, but at this point making the post-season really doesn't mean much to me.

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19 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

I'm curious how many people actually care at this point whether they make the playoffs or not. I think I don't. If they sneak in by winning a really poor division, we all "know" that they will not make it past the first round anyway, and all indications are that they will extend their streak of futility. I like to see the team win, but at this point making the post-season really doesn't mean much to me.

I am Not sure they make it, but I don't need them to win the first round, but I do expect them to win a a game, and be close in another. That would be a huge upgrade from last year and give the team and fans some confidence going into 2023. (anything can happen in a 3 games) Currently the central division winner (Cleveland) would play the Rays in the first round and with Bieber, McKenzie and Quantrill pitching I could easily seem them beating TB if they get solid starts and Clase closing it down.

I am not anywhere near as confident that Ryan, Gray and Mahle can do the same, but it isn't crazy to think they could sneak out a close game against McClanahan or beat Kluber and Rasmussen/Springer.

 

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34 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

I'm curious how many people actually care at this point whether they make the playoffs or not. I think I don't. If they sneak in by winning a really poor division, we all "know" that they will not make it past the first round anyway, and all indications are that they will extend their streak of futility. I like to see the team win, but at this point making the post-season really doesn't mean much to me.

Count me as caring.

I want wins.

I want to win the ALC, and make it into the postseason.

I only speak for myself, but a huge percentage of the enjoyment I get from following the Twins goes away when I no longer care about the outcome.

 

 

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They have a losing record closing in on the last 3 months. Their starting pitching is, quite frankly, pathetic. 5 innings is a struggle for most of the Twins starts. Expecting 9 relievers to win most of your games is not a good strategy.  There offense is dull and mundane.  They could turn things around and easily win their division, but they don’t look like a team that’s going to do that. I’m not sure they have it in them. They seem to be content to just drop to third place and try again next year. 

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The Twins have a "good" team. I don't think they've been playing to their potential lately, but they game out of the gate outperforming. The team got better at the trade deadline, but they're not the best team in the division and there are some surprises in the American League this year.

I'd say the Twins have a 50/50 shot at the post season right now. Maybe 30% to win the division, 20% for a Wildcard. I don't think it happens unless the rotation pitchers step up, though.

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5 hours ago, killebrewlover said:

So there's still 52 games left in this season.  But based on the past couple of weeks, the future of this year's Twins looks bleak.  The Twins are 7-9 so far in the second half.  I appreciate the moves the Twins tried to make in acquiring Mahle, Fulmer, Lopez, and Leon.  But it's clear the Twins are at best a .500 club and with Cleveland and Chicago smelling blood, these sharks won't be missing an opportunity for an easy meal.  Considering that the Twins have 6 of their last 9 meetings against the White Sox in Chicago, and 5 of their last 8 against the Guardians in Cleveland, I think it's safe to assume the Twins front office should now be thinking about the 2023 season.  One might say that pitching was the ultimate undoing of the Twins this season.  But the undependable offense and error prone field defense can take a share of the blame.  Not that the Guardians or White Sox are that much better (or worse) in the statistical areas.  But some key stats shine.  Guardians have 29 saves.  White Sox 31 saves.  Twins only 21 saves.  Combined team ERAs are 3.86 for Cleveland.  3.92 for Chicago.  4.10 for the Twins.  Other stats bother me less (only 20 stolen bases, lowest in the league).  The Twins are not a "bad" team.  And they've had their share of setbacks/injuries to deal with.  But so have Cleveland and Chicago.  It just appears that the Twins have run out of gas, while Cleveland and Chicago seem to have the wind behind their backs.  And I wouldn't count on a wild card spot.  There are too many "better" teams in the mix.  So front office, what are you going to do to make this team better in 2023?  I wait with anxious anticipation!

What would you like them to do at this point to go into the 2023 season? I think they did WELL trading for pieces that will be here for next year at the deadline. 

If you mean calling up prospects to have them get their feet wet. I am not at that point yet. We just played the best team in baseball. We still have a shot at the postseason and traded for proven MLB talent. Go for it. If nothing else, this is good for guys like Miranda, Gordon, and some of the young pitchers to be in this pressure cooker division race. At least it is interesting.

 

 

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I'd rather the Twins lose in the playoffs than not make the playoffs. That's pretty obvious. But, yeah, this isn't a great team. Just looking at the latest "power rankings" from espn (lame, I know), you could argue this isn't a top 15 team in baseball. But a weak division gets them into the playoffs.

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I don't think there's very much doubt now, that it's probably gonna be a three team crap-shoot to the Central Division crown. The Twins, Cleve, and Chi. I think any of those three teams could win the division, and no team will run away with it. Yes, I want to win the div and make the playoffs. You can't advance if you don't go to the dance. Let's get there and let the chips fall where they may. If we get waxed, then so be it. That'll just add to our playoff futility. I also don't think we stand much of a chance against either the Yanks or Stros, or probably the Jays too, so if we somehow end up playing any of those three teams at some point, we'll get dusted. We have the talent to win the division, but whether or not we can hit consistently enough, or pitch effectively enough to do it, remains to be seen. Roll dem bones!

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Despite how terrible the Twins have been, the White Sox and Guardians are pretty much equally bad. I see this division finishing fairly close, no matter what.

It is depressing to watch us trot out Beckham/Cave/etc every game though. Also, our formerly hot bats are pretty quiet too... Correa has been disappointing and Buck is hurt. We are limping down the stretch, which is not a good formula for making the playoffs or winning a game. If I had to bet, I'd say the odds are on winning the division and adding two more games to our record playoff losing streak. I hope I'm wrong. 

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6 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Count me as caring.

I want wins.

I want to win the ALC, and make it into the postseason.

I only speak for myself, but a huge percentage of the enjoyment I get from following the Twins goes away when I no longer care about the outcome.

 

 

I am in total agreement with this post. Further, I'm a little confused by those who seem to be Twins fans not caring or not believing that winning the AL Central and/or being in competition for the postseason is worthwhile because the Twins are not favorites to win it all. I'm still enjoying a team that is light years better than what we witnessed last year. 85 wins was a very favorable forecast for the 2022 Twins and this is within reason still.

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6 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

What would you like them to do at this point to go into the 2023 season? I think they did WELL trading for pieces that will be here for next year at the deadline. 

If you mean calling up prospects to have them get their feet wet. I am not at that point yet. We just played the best team in baseball. We still have a shot at the postseason and traded for proven MLB talent. Go for it. If nothing else, this is good for guys like Miranda, Gordon, and some of the young pitchers to be in this pressure cooker division race. At least it is interesting.

 

 

"At this point to go into the 2023 season", I'd like them to improve their pitching, offense, defense, and overall ability to win.  How the front office does that is up to them, but since you asked...

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I see Chicago probably taking the Division as they took a series from the Yankees and won one game from the Dodgers with a shut-out.

How far behind the Twins are or ahead means the Twins have to improve greatly

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20 minutes ago, RpR said:

I see Chicago probably taking the Division as they took a series from the Yankees and won one game from the Dodgers with a shut-out.

How far behind the Twins are or ahead means the Twins have to improve greatly

Are you predicting a White Sox division title because of 3 games in May and 3 games in June? That would be one of the bolder data sets I've seen used to base a prediction on this late in a season.

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49 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Are you predicting a White Sox division title because of 3 games in May and 3 games in June? That would be one of the bolder data sets I've seen used to base a prediction on this late in a season.

Just like Fangraphs, I am predicting the White Sox win the division because they have a far more talented roster.

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52 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Are you predicting a White Sox division title because of 3 games in May and 3 games in June? That would be one of the bolder data sets I've seen used to base a prediction on this late in a season.

I compared the win/loss bar graphs from Twins, Cleveland and White Sox -- White Sox have defeated top line teams repeatedly,  the other two have not, simple as that.

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I was feeling really good around the end of May, but ever since Royce Lewis got hurt they have been a below .500 club and haven't really showed us much to say they are otherwise. The pitching was never good, but it has been even worse since Wes left. Throw in Correa being bad since July and Buxton's knee being in rough shape and it's hard to feel optimistic.

I hope they turn it around but I feel like the Guardians are going to run away with it.

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For starters how about winning the game tonight against the Halos. The other thing that bugs me is that only one team can win it all and the notion that who cares if they make the playoffs defeats the whole idea of playoffs which is, rare as it may be, anything can happen. Right now only the Dodgers, Mets and maybe the Astros are bullet proof (is that phrase even allowed any more?). The Yankees just lost 5 straight. A key question is, what is the team's attitude when they take the field? We can banter on a discussion board all year long but if the Twins collectively play every game as if they already were in the playoffs, which actually they are in a sense, they have enough talent to win the Central and do it. Every series is important and the "win series" theory does work. If they lose the Halos series, or , heaven forbid, get swept, forget it. Look no further than that. The 13 of 16 games at Target the rest of the month will mean nothing.

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13 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Just like Fangraphs, I am predicting the White Sox win the division because they have a far more talented roster.

That's interesting since Fangraphs currently has the White Sox at 20% to win the division, as compared to the Twins at 35.4 and Cleveland at 44.6%. So maybe it's not "just like Fangraphs" then?

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13 hours ago, RpR said:

I compared the win/loss bar graphs from Twins, Cleveland and White Sox -- White Sox have defeated top line teams repeatedly,  the other two have not, simple as that.

Feels like an awful lot of context missing from that process. By all means you can make your predictions based on whatever criteria you see fit, but I'd think games in May don't mean as much as games in August when making August predictions. Like the White Sox just losing 3 of 4 to the Royals while also losing their SS and leadoff hitter for the majority of the remainder of the season, and currently being 3.5 games back in the division.

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Anderson being out for SOX is a real big deal in their lineup!

Don’t see the Guardians nor SOX as sharks in the water….not sure where that comes from???? They’ve just gotten above .500 in the last month. Haven’t heard of any 7 or 8 game winning streaks! We’re fine!

Need to pick it up on offense - the inconsistent pitching is what it is……same on 27 other staffs in MLB.

Can’t win a playoff game unless we get in and 29-23 does that. We just got 3 pitchers better 10 days ago. As your buddy from Wisconsin says, RELAX!…..our additions don’t stack up against Koufax but we are better and have 32% of the season left to prove it……we need 2-3 guys (of 18) to perform at a considerably higher level and we are good! If we can’t generate more consistent run production we are sunk, 4-5 runs are needed to win in MLB.

We have the pieces - guys need to perform!

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If the Twins do win the division it will be because they checked some of the necessary boxes and performed quite well the rest of the way. It follows that they would be on an upswing which would bode well for winning one damn playoff game!?!?!? 

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On 8/11/2022 at 9:59 AM, PDX Twin said:

I'm curious how many people actually care at this point whether they make the playoffs or not. I think I don't. If they sneak in by winning a really poor division, we all "know" that they will not make it past the first round anyway, and all indications are that they will extend their streak of futility. I like to see the team win, but at this point making the post-season really doesn't mean much to me.

I do. Why would I NOT want them to? I don't get this take at all. 

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On 8/11/2022 at 11:59 AM, PDX Twin said:

I'm curious how many people actually care at this point whether they make the playoffs or not. I think I don't. If they sneak in by winning a really poor division, we all "know" that they will not make it past the first round anyway, and all indications are that they will extend their streak of futility. I like to see the team win, but at this point making the post-season really doesn't mean much to me.

I echo a few others here and say I care. The point is to win. And I’m not trying to be snarky here by saying this, but now I’m curious. If you don’t care, why watch the games, why participate in discussion? Or are you just here for next year? I hear this sentiment a lot … and I don’t get it. If you don’t care then why are you here? I think that a part of you does, or you keep coming back hoping the Twins give you something to care about again, maybe? I think a part of you does care.

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I care if they win.  I have a passion for the game, and most of it is directed to the Twins.  You don't follow a team for over 60 years without being able to endure both good and bad times.  They're like family.  And with that comes a fair amount of loyalty.  what a shame not to have a passion about something, even if it is just baseball.  

With that being said, I probably take losses too hard and take wins too seriously.  The Twins don't put any money in my pockets and most people have no clue that I'm a big fan.  So, it's the inner self that rejoices or exudes grief.

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