One Former Twins Pitcher That Could Bolster Minnesota’s Rotation

[Cody Christie]

As the trade deadline approaches, the separation between the contenders and the pretenders will continue to grow. One former Twins pitcher is having a breakout season, and plenty of teams will be interested in trading for him.

 

The 2019 Minnesota Twins had many things go right for them on their way to 101-wins and a division title. Minnesota’s Bomba Squad didn’t need shutouts from their starting pitchers because the line-up was scoring runs at a record-breaking pace. Only two of the team’s regular starters had sub-4.00 ERAs, and José Berríos was the lone pitcher to toss 200 innings. It wasn’t an overpowering group, and that might have been one of the reasons the team struggled when it reached October (or it was MLB’s fault for switching back to the old baseball). 

Behind Berríos in 2019, Martín Pérez ranked second on the team in innings pitched as he was one of four pitchers to start 29 games or more. In 165 1/3 innings, Pérez posted a 5.12 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP and a 135-to-67 strikeout to walk ratio. Out of the three organizations where he has pitched, Minnesota (89 ERA+) is the only time he had an ERA+ under 100. It was an uneventful season, and he became a free agent at the season’s end. 

Since leaving Minnesota, Pérez spent two years in Boston with a 102 ERA+ and 97 strikeouts in 114 innings. He reached free agency for the second time, and he didn’t have a tremendous market. Texas signed Pérez to a one-year, $4 million deal, which is less than the Twins are paying Dylan Bundy. Pérez is off to the best start of his career, and it looks like the Rangers might have found the offseason’s best deal.

In his first 11 starts, Pérez has a 1.56 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP and a 248 ERA+. He leads all of baseball in complete games (1), shutouts (1), and HR/9 (0.1). Baseball Reference’s WAR ranks him as the second overall player, and the number one ranked pitcher. FanGraphs WAR has him as the third highest-ranked pitcher. Since he left Minnesota, one of his most significant changes is an increased use of his sinker, as batters have been limited to a .281 SLG this season when facing that pitch. 

If the playoffs started today, who would the Twins feel comfortable starting in the series? Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan have been the team’s best starters, but both have missed time in recent weeks due to injury or COVID. Devin Smeltzer has more to prove before the Twins will trust with an October start. There have been some positive signs from Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer, but neither pitcher seems like they will help the team stop their playoff losing streak. 

Pérez is a clear Cy Young candidate on a Texas team in third place in their division with a below .500 record. However, this season, baseball’s expanded playoffs mean the Rangers are less than two games out of a Wild Card spot. There will also be more contending teams interested in adding pitchers than in previous seasons. Texas spent a ton of money on their roster this winter, so they aren’t going to be in sell-mode until absolutely necessary.

Do you think the Twins should target Pérez as a possible rotational upgrade? What do you think it would take to acquire his expiring contract? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

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[DJL44]

I thought this was going to be about Kyle Gibson when I read the title.

[bronald3030]

I would aim hire, but it all depends on cost.

 

[Doctor Gast]

Perez is Perez. A long RP who wants to be a SP. He's a very good pitcher much like Rodon (I can put a lot in this boat) but doesn't have the arm to give you 5+ quality innings through out the season, w/o going dead or get injured. Perez had a super season w/ the Twins until the BP blew up and was asked to pitch extra innings then everything went south. 

I think Perez could do very well in MN with our much improved defense if they limit his innings. But I see our BP is going down that same old path and will ask more innings from all their SPs. Therefore it won't pay to bring Perez here. 

[zwiefz]

Not interested at this point.  Before we write him in on Cy Young ballots, go back and look at 2019.  I am not a stat head, but when I read this article I seemed to remember similar thoughts(OMG, how did we land this guy so cheap???) early in the year before him ending up in the bullpen.

A very brief look at his numbers showed that in his first 8 starts for the Twins(after getting inserted in rotation) he gave up 1.5 runs per game started through  May 30.  After May 30 he had 21 more appearances(some were bullpen I believe) and averaged 3.5 runs per start/appearance with some absolute clunkers in there.  So he has had 'hot' stretches early in the year before.

If he is still doing this at the trade deadline, then maybe.  Way too early to see if he is an upgrade or a mirage. Besides, the entire rotation is such a shambles right now that not sure if even 1 great pitcher would make a difference over the long haul.

[Trov]

If you can get him for very low level prospect I would take a flier on him that he can keep it going rest of year, but nothing too much.  You cannot have too much pitching, but do not over pay for SSS. He can bust just as quickly. 

[Bamboo Bat]

Absolutely not. Everyone has seen this hot start from Perez before, but he hasn't put together a season with an ERA under 4,50 since 2016. Read that again. 

At 31 years old he is what he is, a sub-mediocre starting pitcher who will give you an ERA flirting with 5.00. If the Twins are serious about trying to make the playoffs they need to aim higher than barely adequate. 

[nicksaviking]

Seems like the one thing Perez can be counted on for is his streakiness. At this time in 2019 he was actually pitching really well too, yet we pretty much only remember how it ended. I wouldn't trust him and I don't put much stock in his recent track record.

[bighat]

55 minutes ago, Bamboo Bat said:

Absolutely not. Everyone has seen this hot start from Perez before, but he hasn't put together a season with an ERA under 4,50 since 2016. Read that again. 

At 31 years old he is what he is, a sub-mediocre starting pitcher who will give you an ERA flirting with 5.00. If the Twins are serious about trying to make the playoffs they need to aim higher than barely adequate. 

THANK YOU for being the voice of reason. I'm guessing the author of this post along with anyone in agreement didn't watch Perez during his time with the Twins. By the All-Star break he'll be getting lit up by the 3rd inning like Dylan Bundy. And he'll take 3 hours to pitch those two innings, the guy's gotta be the slowest worker in the majors. We've got the aforementioned Bundy and Archer already doing this, the Twins can't afford another 30+ pitcher who's facing the end of his career. I'd rather the Twins go with Sands all season, as bad as the results may be.

I hope the Twins don't entertain this idea at all, the downside is horrific.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

No thank you. While I believe in improvement in skills, I'm not willing to go down that road again. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Please dear God, no. Same guy. Hot streak then disaster. If he's stays this good through end of July? Maaaaybe....

[CRF]

No Perez...and absolutely no Gibby!

[terrydactyls]

A trade for Perez would be a brilliant move - for the Rangers.  They could get rid of a (most likely) greatly overvalued pitcher just before he implodes.  The return would far exceed what the Rangers paid him so far this year.

[mikelink45]

No.  This is the most disturbing idea I have seen in the last month.  Do we not remember Perez?  10 - 7 5.88 era, 1.52 Whip 

[Matt Braun]

I have about as much confidence in Perez keeping this up as I do in the Twins winning a game against the Yankees

[Seth Stohs]

1 hour ago, Matt Braun said:

I have about as much confidence in Perez keeping this up as I do in the Twins winning a game against the Yankees

[The Mad King]

Hopefully by that time our regular starters get their health back

[Rosterman]

I, too, thought this was going to be about a Kyle Gibson reunion.

At least it wasn't about Jake Odorizzi or Michael Pineda.

[PatPfund]

OMG. Sending a prospect for Perez would be on a par with sending top prospect and future All-Star Wilson Ramos for temporarily hot, but soon-to-be-out-of-baseball Matt Capps.

I'd rather see Dylan Bundy start a playoff game than Martin Perez, even if we have to call Dylan out from his new job at the carwash. Perez may be a nice guy (seriously, he seems like a nice guy), but any GM that coughs up a serious prospect for a Perez 8 game hot streak (better this year, but of the sort he often has early) should be fired.

[MTV]

If the Twins should trade for any former-Twins starter, it should be Jake Odorizzi. He’s still a consistent starter and is a FA after this year (plus a mutual option) and would be fairly cheap to acquire from the Astros, especially because he’s on the 15-Day IL. Once he gets back the Twins should try to make a move.

[Aichiman]

How about Gibson?  I read somewhere that he might be available.  If so, a potential reunion could be nice.

 

[Blyleven2011]

If your thinking pitching it has to be aces  , bulldogs and studs ....

[TruthInDuluth]

After the bullpen non performance yesterday, we should be ready to realize that what was said preseason, this is a building year.  Lots of excitement early , but losing 4of5 to tigers shows where this team really is, a .500 team by season end. So, no to Perez