Trevor Larnach is Hurting the Ball

[Ted Schwerzler]

When the Minnesota Twins drafted Trevor Larnach in the first round of the 2018 Major League Baseball draft, much of the allure was due to the quality of contact. His exit velocities remained strong throughout the farm, and we’re seeing it now at the major-league level.

When Alex Kirilloff went down with an injury to his wrist, the club was immediately in good hands, having Larnach step in. While the results last season weren’t exactly promising, plenty of the poor production could be attributed to injury. Now back to full health, and despite a slow start with the Triple-A Saints, Larnach is looking the part for Minnesota.
 
Although it’s an extremely small sample size, Larnach’s batted ball events have been a bloodbath of red on the Statcast exit velocity readings. He hits nothing without serious intent, and seven of the first ten balls he put in play have left the bat at more than 95 mph. Expected outcomes have Larnach’s batting average sitting 50 points higher than it is, at .309, with a 150-point bump in wOBA (weight on-base average) at .408.
 
It’s not new for Larnach to be hitting the ball with authority. As mentioned, that was his calling card when the Twins initially drafted him. Last season Larnach posted a 9.5% barrel rate and a 90 mph average exit velocity. Although not exceptional, his 40.5% hard-hit rate was noteworthy, and the launch angle sat at 13.1 degrees.
 
What has been a constant for Larnach and Kirilloff is that opposing pitchers know they can hit velocity. Larnach saw fastballs just 28% of the time last season, and that’s been an even less 24% this year. The idea is to feed him offspeed and slop offerings to keep him off balance while forcing him to generate the power through his swing.

Larnach is chasing roughly half the time he did a year ago, just a handful of games into the season, and he’s dropped the whiff rate by six percent. Those numbers are likely too drastic to hold up throughout an entire season, but steps forward there only increase his ability to drive the ball.
 
It should never be seen as a positive when a player goes down with an injury, but if there’s a place that Minnesota has options, it’s in corner outfielders. Larnach was squeezed off the Opening Day roster as there wasn’t a direct path to playing time every day. With plenty of run in front of him, it should be time for him to shine.
 
Like Kirilloff, Larnach gets off a powerful swing while not being loud with his hands and staying within his process. It’s a beautiful sight at contact, and whether the ball leaves the yard or finds a glove, there shouldn’t be many situations where the result isn’t a loud one. A candidate for 30-plus homers in an entire season, Larnach finding regular at-bats for the Twins should be fun for all involved.
 
Take a look at Larnach’s Statcast profile a few months from now, and don’t be surprised if you see many high percentile rankings. If Kirilloff's injury isn't something long-term, then it will be interesting to see how Rocco Baldelli juggles his lineup and talent. The early returns suggest there will need to be playing time found for all.

What do you think about how Larnach has looked in the early going this season? Does he stay with the Twins once Kirilloff returns and how would you get him into the lineup on an everyday basis?

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[dex8425]

Easy. Kirilloff plays first base. Larnach plays left. Sano should not be playing every day right now. 

[Game7-91]

Like Larnach and Kiriloff a lot. As they develop they can form a better LH tandem than M and M boys of yesteryear--if they stay healthy......Larnach needs time to work things out at MLB level, I hope he stays put, let him play and develop. Even if it means (say it ain't so Joe), moving on from Garlick at some point in the near future.

[chpettit19]

Larnach hitting fastball after fastball the other way right now is very encouraging. He still looks lost against changeups, but he seems to have a solid plan at the plate and has put some very nice swings on the ball lately.

[mikelink45]

I really want Larnach to succeed.  But I am not smart enough to know if he has made the transition that I hope he has. 

[chpettit19]

14 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I really want Larnach to succeed.  But I am not smart enough to know if he has made the transition that I hope he has. 

This is the internet...we're all smart enough! Or so I'm told...

[GKuehl]

While I agree with the general sentiment that Larnach has looked a lot better at the plate so far, this feels a bit TOO positive about a hitter with a .176 batting average and a .446 OPS (in an admittedly small sample) so far. He had that ball he smashed to center a few games ago that Kike Hernandez "dropped" that should have been credited as a double, which would make his numbers look more palatable considering how small the sample is. While his underlying numbers (exit velo, barrels, etc.) show better things are seemingly on the way, I'm a bit hesitant about proclaiming that Larnach is back and here to stay.

P.S. I really like Larnach and think he'll be a really good major league hitter for a long time. 

[jmlease1]

Talented hitter, and I think he'll do better in his second stint than his first in MLB. But he still has a ways to go before he's proven that you can't get him out consistently by just tossing slop at him, and the next evolution will be showing that he can still punish fastballs when he only sees 2 for strikes per game. But I believe in Larnach's talent and skill.

Hope all the barrels and hard-hit balls turn into hits. We need 'em!

[Blyleven2011]

Larnach needs to build confidence at the major league level ,,

Let him bat against righthanded pitching to build that confidence up first then unleash him to both sides of the plate ... 

It's a plan that should work and the FO and Rocco like game plans ...

[jimbo92107]

I don't see a problem. Larnach has been a hitter his whole career. He'll learn the ropes at this level, too. The man is built to belt. I agree that Kirilloff should play 1B instead of Sano. Play the hitters!

[mickster]

Sit Sano and when he gets hot TRADE HIM.   He can hit 30+ bombs for someone else as he loses as many games as he wins.    Trading now gets us nothing, when he is hot we could get someone to put in the rotation; although the starters ERA is below 3.00 right now

 

[bighat]

17 hours ago, dex8425 said:

Easy. Kirilloff plays first base. Larnach plays left. Sano should not be playing every day right now. 

Ummmm....disagree.

Both could improve, but right now Sano is superior to both of them combined, especially when he starts hitting. Because he will, and that's a guarantee. The other two don't come with guarantees.

Larnach and Kirilloff aren't rookies. They are 2nd year players who failed their first tryouts - one couldn't hit, the other couldn't stay healthy. Nothing has changed in either scenario so far this year. If this audition doesn't go well for Larnach, he may be sent down to AAA purgatory and may never make it back to the bigs after this year. Kirilloff's career might be in jeopardy if he can't get over this chronic wrist issue.

And you think they are both better than Miguel Sano, a guy who will hit 30 HR this year and who has done so many times in the past? I know hating on Sano is the cool thing to do, and it's low-hanging fruit, but c'mon. You have to be realistic.

 

[bighat]

41 minutes ago, mickster said:

Sit Sano and when he gets hot TRADE HIM.   He can hit 30+ bombs for someone else as he loses as many games as he wins.    Trading now gets us nothing, when he is hot we could get someone to put in the rotation; although the starters ERA is below 3.00 right now

 

You can't sit a guy and expect him to get hot. You don't get both.

[PatPfund]

Mostly like the Larnach take, and this is pretty much his time. He has the tools, and if he figures out MLB, the Twins are good in left.

Kirilloff isn't even worth discussing at this point. He still has pain after surgery and months of recuperation. He couldn't hit with the pain last year, and hasn't so far this year. The LAST thing we need is Kirilloff trying to gut it out as a no-power .189 hitter on the 26/8 man roster. He should stay on IL until they have a plan and execute it. (I'm doubtful he is of use at all this year; hope I'm wrong.)

The part that made me giggle a little was the "if there’s a place that Minnesota has options, it’s in corner outfielders" statement. Several years ago when Max, Bryron, and Eddie were slugging, and we had Kirilloff, Larnach, and Rooker coming up, well... then we had riches in the OF. But Eddie is gone, Max hasn't hit in two-plus years, Byron gets hurt, Rooker is gone, and Larnach/Kirilloff have yet to click. Celestino is raw, Gordon is still a question mark, and Garlick is a one trick journeyman pony. Sure we can put bodies out there, but other than Larnach, I'm not seeing anybody other than maybe Contreras who can play defense and (maybe) hit at the MLB level right now.

[MTV]

For the future, Kirilloff will be the starting 1B and Larnach will be the LF. Aaron Sabato should be up next year, and Miguel Sano is currently a placeholder for Aaron Sabato. Unfortunately, the Twins don’t really have a third 1B so Sano won’t really be getting days off in the mean time. Sano being on the team in 2023 will solely depend on if he heats up for a long enough stretch this year.

[USNMCPO]

I have been very pleased with Larnach hitting to the left side. It seems that he is getting a better feel for MLB pitching. He still has a good ways to go but to me seems like he is in the process.

[adorduan]

I know Twins Daily contributors need to write SOMETHING, but these small sample size articles mean almost nothing.  Let's get to 40 games played and see where everybody is.

[Bradfoot]

With this small of a sample size it is pointless to analyze batted ball data, 4 batted balls without a hard hit would make Larnach's 50% hard-hit rate become 38%.  But since we are playing this game, it is curious that you highlighted Larnach and not Nick Gordon.  His sample size is even more ridiculous at 6 events (compared to 14 for Larnach) but I wouldn't have bet they would average over 95MPH.

Nick Gordon - Average Exit Velocity 95.7 (3rd on Twins), Hard-Hit rate 66.7 (14 plate appearances)

Trevor Larnach - Average Exit Velocity 88.4 (11th on Twins), Hard-Hit rate 50 (19 plate appearances)

[nicksaviking]

The odds were never in favor of Kirilloff AND Larnach both paying off. If it's only Larnach that ends up being a long-time lineup staple, that will still be a success in my book.

[dex8425]

7 hours ago, bighat said:

Ummmm....disagree.

Both could improve, but right now Sano is superior to both of them combined, especially when he starts hitting. Because he will, and that's a guarantee. The other two don't come with guarantees.

Larnach and Kirilloff aren't rookies. They are 2nd year players who failed their first tryouts - one couldn't hit, the other couldn't stay healthy. Nothing has changed in either scenario so far this year. If this audition doesn't go well for Larnach, he may be sent down to AAA purgatory and may never make it back to the bigs after this year. Kirilloff's career might be in jeopardy if he can't get over this chronic wrist issue.

And you think they are both better than Miguel Sano, a guy who will hit 30 HR this year and who has done so many times in the past? I know hating on Sano is the cool thing to do, and it's low-hanging fruit, but c'mon. You have to be realistic.

 

This is Sano's last year as a Twin. I think he has a 14 million team option next year or a 750k buyout? Right now that decision is easy. I'm rooting for him to suddenly become 2017 Sano again but that seems more unlikely than Larnach continuing to hit.  

Larnach and Kirilloff will get plenty of chances-look at Brent Rooker. All first round picks.