José Berríos Traded to Blue Jays

[TheLeviathan]

I want to point out the irony here as well:

The Twins acquired Jose Berrios via a comp pick for letting a major league player walk from their team.  They made a business decision about a player who was still productive and a fan favorite that ultimately was best for the club long term.

And now here we are with Berrios.  It's not his fault, but when things don't come together it doesn't help to double down on a failed attempt.

[In My La Z boy]

8 minutes ago, jtkoupal said:

Trading Berrios makes all the sense in the world with one major exception: The fact that the Twins had a chance to compete in 2022.

 

I think trading Jose is a very clear indicator that the Twins' Brass does not see the team as a contender next season, which I think is very pessimistic considering the team actually has a lot of good pieces in place. I fully understand that baseball is a business and sometimes you have to make moves you don't really want to make, but I just don't see how you make this move if you expect to compete in 2022. 

 

At this point, I don't know what to expect from the 2022 Twins. However, I expect to see the bottom drop out of the 2021 Twins who just traded their two best players.

 

I don't see it this way. Giving up on 2022 would have looked like selling low on someone. Buxton, Kepler, Donaldson - moving pieces to dump salary - that would have looked like giving up on next year - and trading Cruz doesn't count, you could not plan on him being here next year. We kept everyone who matters to the offense for next year. We seem to signal that Big Mike will come back - we did what had to be done without giving in on next year in any way. Jose Berrios and our FO were looking at 2022 being a one and done. We blasted a grand slam in getting these 2 Top 100 prospects - and the 2 we got back for Cruz, another marvel to me. It is a lost season, but today's deals, and more importantly, todays no deals say we are definitely competing next year. Now sign Buxton - in the next week. That will say for sure.

[Vanimal46]

37 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Yet....the suck has happened.  And will continue to happen.  If you're somehow squeezing joy out of this god awful season I have confidence you'll continue to find it if you're so determined.

Doing nothing was going to continue to result in one good pitcher and a bad baseball team.  You seem to grasp this notion, what I cant' grasp is why you would like it to endure.

You’re missing my point. Trading Berrios eliminates 2022 from any potential of being enjoyable and competitive. We’re now multiple years away from being good. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

7 minutes ago, jtkoupal said:

Trading Berrios makes all the sense in the world with one major exception: The fact that the Twins had a chance to compete in 2022.

That's exactly it. 

I cannot understand why commenters on here downplay that so, so much.

 

 

[Brandon]

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Well, SS can usually move to CF, LF, 3B, 2B, or stay at SS.......What would you expect to get for 1 player?

As an example see Cuddyer.  A high school SS who ended up at 2nd, 3rd, LF and Rf and 1b even.....

[TheLeviathan]

3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

You’re missing my point. Trading Berrios eliminates 2022 from any potential of being enjoyable and competitive. We’re now multiple years away from being good. 

That depends on how we go forward, same as it did before we made the trade.

[notoriousgod71]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

So, in other words, you don't want to be bothered with facts and to portray my statement as meaning what you have is absurd and petty.  Every losing team in the league is following similar practices, they just did not do it as well as the twins this year.  Yet, you assume all of the baseball executives operating the same way are stupid apparently.  

They all just try to imitate each other. For every star veteran that fell off the face of the earth in their prime I will show you 100 prospects that never made it.

Instead of trading berrios why not improve the pitching staff instead of continually subtracting from it?

[Aerodeliria]

7 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

2 very, very nice prospects for a pitcher who we know would be gone after next year.

Well-said.

[wyowib]

13 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

That's exactly it. 

I cannot understand why commenters on here downplay that so, so much.

 

 

As of this morning, the Twins are 17 games behind an up-and-coming team, 6 games behind a well known rebuilding up-and-coming team, with 1/3 of the season left to go.  I'm personally not downplaying it, just seeing the writing on the wall.  I want to root for my favorite team as a legitimate contender, not a "so you're telling me there's a chance" team.  The teams referenced developed a plan and are implementing it now, while being more successful than the Twins.  IMO the Twins are in a perfect position to implement a plan that expedites the true contender status.  I don't think anyone outside of a handful of Twins fans viewed the team as having any chance at truly competing next year with status quo.  Surprise next year that opens a true sustainable window, with current assets that have been supplemented.

[Squirrel]

23 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

That's exactly it. 

I cannot understand why commenters on here downplay that so, so much.

 

 

So, now we have no chance in 2022, at all? I mean, how can anyone say that at this point? We don't know who/what/where/when/how it will be yet in 2022. Let's wait to place definitive judgement on something  a  ways out yet ... and ... there may not be a 2022, depending on negotiations between MLB and the MLBPA. I get being disappointed in a favorite player being traded, unsigned, etc ... but this is part of the game. I'm actually more hopeful for next year than had they done nothing at this deadline.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

18 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

So, now we have no chance in 2022, at all? I mean, how can anyone say that at this point? We don't know who/what/where/when/how it will be yet in 2022. Let's wait to place definitive judgement on something  a  ways out yet ... and ... there may not be a 2022, depending on negotiations between MLB and the MLBPA. I get being disappointed in a favorite player being traded, unsigned, etc ... but this is part of the game. I'm actually more hopeful for next year than had they done nothing at this deadline.

I would be happy to have that conversation about which of the young pitchers they traded for might pan out. Maybe that's something for the offseason.  

I don't know how anyone can think trading away Berríos makes the team better for 2022, because, first, obviously, they will need to replace Berrios. We are always asked to "wait to cast judgment etc." month after month, year after year. I don't know which of these pitchers projects to reach the level of Berríos either next year or in the following years. Frankly, probably none of them. One of them might. Which one?

I think commenters on this forum talk about running a franchise like it's a board game, and have forgotten how valuable winning can be. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

I would be happy to have that conversation about which of the young pitchers they traded for might pan out. Maybe that's something for the offseason.  

I don't know how anyone can think trading away Berríos makes the team better for 2022, because, first, obviously, they will need to replace Berrios. We are always asked to "wait to cast judgment etc." month after month, year after year. I don't know which of these pitchers projects to reach the level of Berríos either next year or in the following years. Frankly, probably none of them. One of them might. Which one?

I think commenters on this forum talk about running a franchise like it's a board game, and have forgotten how valuable winning can be. 

You really think that last part? That we don't understand winning matters? 

I'm guessing nearly every GM in the league does what the Twins did......

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

This is really well said.  Yeah, it sucks to lose Jose.  He's probably my favorite Twin, but the Twins pitching wasn't winning anything with him and he wasn't staying.  You can lament the state of things without letting it color your ability to see the path forward.

The path forward for this team was to move on, acquire assets, and rework the roster.  We might be able to flip Marten for a pitcher.  Maybe Woods-Richardson will step right in.  Same with some of the other arms we added.  We weren't going to progress being stagnant.  Take big swings. 

Some of you would've been on a Padres board 5 years ago singing the ballads of James Shields and the worthlessness of prospects like Tatis.  (Best case scenario of course, but you can't hit roster homeruns without taking swings) It's ok to feel crappy about the state of things, but some sense of reality would be nice.

Wouldn't signing a very good, and very durable 27 year old pitcher also be a taking a big swing, or making progress in regard to assembling a pitching staff? I think the fact that trading Berrios today wasn't the Twins only option is being incredibly overlooked. Maybe this is the best the FO could do to salvage the situation, but that's not the same as a win, and that reality should be acknowledged, not celebrated as a haul. We should know better than most how fickle prospect development can be. I get the allure, I really do, but we're selling a reliable/known talent for hope. Fingers crossed that they hit that HR you mentioned. 

 

[TheLeviathan]

12 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Wouldn't signing a very good, and very durable 27 year old pitcher also be a taking a big swing, or making progress in regard to assembling a pitching staff? I think the fact that trading Berrios today wasn't the Twins only option is being incredibly overlooked. Maybe this is the best the FO could do to salvage the situation, but that's not the same as a win, and that reality should be acknowledged, not celebrated as a haul. We should know better than most how fickle prospect development can be. I get the allure, I really do, but we're selling a reliable/known talent for hope. Fingers crossed that they hit that HR you mentioned. 

 

Signing him to a one year deal with a guarantee he walks in a year?

Sure, if we are a piece from a World Series I say absolutely it's a HR.  But that isn't our situation.

[h2oface]

23 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

You really think that last part? That we don't understand winning matters? 

I'm guessing nearly every GM in the league does what the Twins did......

Well.... only those that are losing, and have a bad team that they were responsible for at least some if not all of the design of, perhaps. And what do they all have in common? The team that they run was a loser. Just the folks one wants to emmulate.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, h2oface said:

Well.... only those that are losing, and have a bad team that they were responsible for at least some if not all of the design of, perhaps. And what do they all have in common? The team that they run was a loser. Just the folks one wants to emmulate.

Ok, the team was bad.....so, I guess they should do something to make it better. I am not 100% sure I'd have traded Berrios, but I also don't know it was wrong. I mean, sure, if they weren't bad, you don't deal him...but they were.....It isn't a theoretical situation, it is a real one. They were bad....

[KirbyDome89]

20 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Signing him to a one year deal with a guarantee he walks in a year?

Sure, if we are a piece from a World Series I say absolutely it's a HR.  But that isn't our situation.

Not sure why we're talking about a 1 year deal here.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Not sure why we're talking about a 1 year deal here.

Because he said he wanted to test FA?

[KirbyDome89]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Because he said he wanted to test FA?

So buy out his last year and offer him market value? Hold onto him and trade him next year if he refuses to even entertain signing in MN? 

[SanoMustGo]

7 hours ago, RpR said:

Better than becoming  a worse team a driving spectators away for the next ten years.

From 1971 to 1984 the Twins has One Million or more spectators for 2 whole years with a whopping 600 some thousand in 1974, yep, bring on the rookies and drive away the people who make the team money, Brilliant.

How in the world can ANYONE know this team will be worse in 2022?  With all the prospects in the pipeline, young guys showing promise this season, and the money they will have to spend in the offseason, I wouldn't assume ANYTHING.   Not directing this at you RpR, but anyone who is making assumptions about 2022 in late July 2021. 

[ashbury]

6 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

So buy out his last year and offer him market value? Hold onto him and trade him next year if he refuses to even entertain signing in MN? 

Presumably the agent replied privately to this line of logic, "we don't know what market value is, and we won't know until the Yankees and Dodgers make a bid. Since having them do so now would be Tampering, my client is betting on himself and waiting."

[KirbyDome89]

Just now, ashbury said:

Presumably the agent has replied to this line of logic, "we don't know what market value is, and we won't know until the Yankees and Dodgers make a bid. Since having the do so now would be Tampering, my client is betting on himself."

So then address trading him at the next deadline, or make an effort and actually sign him as a FA?

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

So buy out his last year and offer him market value? Hold onto him and trade him next year if he refuses to even entertain signing in MN? 

Sure, but that's why we were discussing a 1 year deal, which was your question......that's all they were getting for sure. Like I said, I'm not sure I'd have dealt him....but a 1 year deal was it.

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, SanoMustGo said:

How in the world can ANYONE know this team will be worse in 2022?  With all the prospects in the pipeline, young guys showing promise this season, and the money they will have to spend in the offseason, I wouldn't assume ANYTHING.   Not directing this at you RpR, but anyone who is making assumptions about 2022 in late July 2021. 

What promise

I just watched the Cards game, 0,0,0.

If being hit-less wonders is promise the Twins are on a roll.

I don't assume, but unlike so many here, I do  not believe wishful, (Oh gee this guy is so good in  AA or AAA )  thinking is worth a plug nickle.

[ashbury]

19 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

So then address trading him at the next deadline, or make an effort and actually sign him as a FA?

Outbidding the Yankees and Dodgers on a free agent is your plan of action? Or, getting less for him at the next trading deadline than we got now?

[SanoMustGo]

24 minutes ago, RpR said:

What promise

I just watched the Cards game, 0,0,0.

If being hit-less wonders is promise the Twins are on a roll.

I don't assume, but unlike so many here, I do  not believe wishful, (Oh gee this guy is so good in  AA or AAA )  thinking is worth a plug nickle.

This is how the game/business works.  Teams do this all the time, every year.  How do you think Cubs and Nationals fans feel today? Two teams with recent world series rings, better records than the Twins, dismantling their teams, more than the Twins did.  Unless you are teams like the Dodgers, you have to live with this.  Look at how bad the Astros were for so long. The Padres, The Rays, Royals, etc...I could go on.  How did those teams rebuild? The same way the Twins are.  Will it work?  Maybe, but holding on to players in order to win a few more games in a lost season, just to satisfy a few fans is not the formula that will work for an organization like the Twins. Unless ownership decides to carry a 220 million payroll.  As far as wishful thinking goes, this isn't the NBA, where one or two players wins anything. Ask the Angels, who have had the best player in baseball for years.

[Vanimal46]

3 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

That depends on how we go forward, same as it did before we made the trade.

Are you confident they will replace his production of 3 WAR through FA? I don’t. 

[TheLeviathan]

48 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Not sure why we're talking about a 1 year deal here.

I think ashbury and mike answered this well, but I don't understand why it was a question at all.  So much of the discord in here feels like people are tailoring the context of this trade in strange ways that omit key reasons why it makes so much sense to pull this trigger.  Take just a few:

1. Berrios has made it abundantly clear he isn't interested in an extension.  Short of "Pay me 5 years and 200M or I'm going to let the Yanks wine and dine me"....there isn't much mystery about his intentions.  That means in one season and two months you have as much control over who he pitches for as every other MLB team.

2. Trading him at the next deadline will dramatically reduce the return.  I can't emphasize dramatically hard enough.  

3. If your plan is to outbid the Yankees....you get your shot in 2022 I guess.  Plus the guys we just got!

4. Jose Berrios and a bunch of question marks is not a contending caliber staff.  2022 doesn't have enough ready starting pitchers to supplement Jose.

Now, let me add a few personal contextual bits I think are worth noting:

1. The Twins just got more for Jose Berrios than the Nats got for Scherzer AND Trae Turner with a similar level of control.

2 I'd trade Berrios for Turner 102 times out of 100 straight up.  

3.  The Twins could, conceivably, turn around this offseason and make two separate deals with these guys as lead parts of the package and come back with two arms as good (or nearly as good) as Jose.  This is what could happen because now the Twins have more assets to make the 2022 team better than one guy who has made it his outward goal to bet on himself.

[TheLeviathan]

7 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Are you confident they will replace his production of 3 WAR through FA? I don’t. 

I'm not confident they can add much talent to the roster hanging on to a guy who has every intention of not being here in 2023.  They could take these two prospects and use them to add arms.  Martin and somebody for Zac Gallen.  Woods Richardson and another piece for John Means.

Bam.  Better 2022 Rotation.  And 2023.  And 2024.  These are the kinds of things you can do when you have assets to move.

[chpettit19]

9 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Are you confident they will replace his production of 3 WAR through FA? I don’t. 

Have you, and others who are amongst the "trading Berrios automatically means you'll have worse pitching next year" crowd, seen Moneyball? If so, do you remember the scene where they're talking about replacing Giambi? If not, the scene is basically FO personnel, scouts, etc. discussing their chances of competing the following season and how screwed they are cuz they can't get anyone better than Giambi. Billy Beane straight up says "we can't replace him," and he's right, just like you're right the Twins likely can't replace Berrios' production at his price tag in 1 signing or with 1 callup. But they can improve the staff as a whole.

The entire offense is back (minus Cruz who wasn't a sure thing resign with the NL likely getting the DH, and can still be resigned anyways). If you believe, as I do, that this offense can compete for a division title you're really only worried about the pitching. So the Twins have gone from Berrios, Maeda, Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, their incumbent prospects, and about 40M to spend to Maeda, Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, their incumbent prospects, 2 pitching prospects that should debut in the next couple weeks from the Rays, SWR, and about 50M to spend (plus Martin for the offense). The question is what's the difference in those 2 situations and are the Twins in a better position to build a staff for 2022 now than 2 weeks ago.

Replacing Berrios with 1 other 3 WAR pitcher for 10M is going to be real hard to do. (I'm not going to look up the actual Twins pitcher's WAR numbers for this exercise, sorry) But replacing the negative (presumably) WAR from many others on the staff with significantly better options is more than reasonable. The goal isn't it replace Berrios 1 for 1, it's to build a better staff. Take them from a 0 WAR staff to a 5 WAR staff (numbers completely made up, but the point remains). The Twins have given themselves more ways to improve for next year (and the future) now than they had 2 weeks ago. Not sure why that wouldn't have been the goal for everyone who cares about the Twins.

It sucks seeing Berrios leave. But if the pitching staff as a whole is able to be improved by a couple of the prospects filling some minor roles (mid-relief, #5 starter type roles) and the Twins can sign some veteran arms with their 50M I don't see any reason why they couldn't be a significantly better staff next year even without Berrios. Just like the A's replacing Giambi, the Twins can't replace Berrios 1 for 1, but they can in the aggregate. Now the FO just has to not screw it up.