Kenta Maeda: New Twins Ace in Five Numbers

[Darius]

You're definitely correct. Depth played a role in their decision to move him to the bullpen. Maeda did have their highest ERA in those years, but he was far from bad. I'd guess they looked at more than his ERA when moving him to the bullpen which is where his contract comes in. Why not save the money? I only argue his contract because I don't think it's fair to say that his poor performance pushed him into the bullpen. He would have likely been a season long #3 starter for most teams with the numbers he put up.

“A number 3 starter on most teams” isn’t a number 3 on the shortlist of World Series contenders. The Twins don’t enter the conversation with Maeda.

 

Again, I’m trying not to be too down on the move. But, I just can’t care about another number 3. Probably a good regular season move. Doesn’t accomplish anything in terms of playoff prospects.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Great article... makes me excited to think he could be good here...

 

I'd quibble a bit and note that I wouldn't call him an ace just yet... potential is there though. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, in regards to Maeda's contract and bullpen usage -- keep in mind why he was on that unusual contract to begin with:

 

 

He was projected to get a 5/60 deal that winter by MLBTR, and only ended up with a 8/25 guarantee!

 

His usage by the Dodgers is pretty consistent with both his performance and that health concern, it seems.

[birddog]

I like the trade a lot. Maeda is not an ace, but he can be very good and that is what we need right now and his contract is so very cheap for a pitcher of his talent. Graterol might be very good in the future but the future is now for the Twins. We gave up a good prospect to get a good starting pitcher, exactly what the front office needed to do. Many wanted Chris Archer, but Maeda has a higher K rate, wins more games and has a lower ERA (yes it is easier to win pitching for Dodgers than Pirates). Kudos to the front office.

[Trov]

I liked the article.  It goes deep into analytics, that my guess the front office saw too.  I like the trade overall, and only time will tell if it was a mistake.  The Twins know more about Graterol than anyone.  His velocity is eye popping, but so is his lack of health.  I doubt he will ever have long term success as a starter due to fact he will not stay healthy.  He may have good stint as reliever, but you need to give something to get something. 

 

To the people that think we could have flipped just Graterol for a teams ace should never be a GM for a team.  There is plenty to question about Graterol and he is not considered a top 10 pitching prospect in baseball, only #53 in all of baseball, according to MLB site, have not checked others.  So why would a team give up an "ace" for not even a top 10 pitching prospect.  I think Twins fans have been so starved for pitching prospects that we are over valuing him. 

 

Maybe Graterol stays healthy and becomes the best pitcher in the game for a period, or maybe he continues to have arm/shoulder issues, and can never stay healthy, most likely he is some where in between.  Maybe Maeda flops with Twins and they lost out on Graterol for nothing, it happens, but at least this FO is trying to use their prospects to improve the team now.  

[dex8425]

 

This guy is not an “ace.” Flat out.

You have to throw more than 150 innings to be put in that department. You have to be able to get a batter out the third time through the lineup to be put in that department. Your swing and miss stuff has to translate to sustaining an ERA under 4.00 to be put in that department.

The innings being down in recent years aren’t really a positive, either, because he was worked heavily in Japan (200+ a year) before coming over. Still a ton of miles on that arm.

Two points:

He did meet your qualifications of an "ace" in 2016, but last year was his best year in terms of WHIP. He's also got great playoff numbers and lots of postseason appearances. He's also elite (by any measurement you use) against righties. 

 

Lots of innings in Japan, but they do have 6 days between starts, where in mlb you only have four. 

 

And one question: Who else would you want as an available starter in 2019 for Graterol? He's a relief prospect with a bad injury history. Chris Archer? Nathan Eovaldi? Jordan Yamamoto? 

 

I'd have rather dealt from our hitting prospects, but this makes our team better for 2020 and 2021, and we don't need Graterol in the bullpen this year, even if he was healthy, which is a big if.

 

I agree that we still don't have an ace on the caliber of Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole, but most teams don't. And JV still has not won a playoff game. 

[dex8425]

I would also not call him an ace. But I'd rather have four years of him than 6 years of Graterol. 

[4twinsJA]

Maeda moves to #3 starter, pushing Bailey down. I continue to see Bailey as setting the bar for starting pitching, meaning if Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, Chacin outperform him they pass him up. Pineda comes back mid May, a top 4 of Berrios, Odo, Maeda, Pineda looks like an improvement from last year and good competition for #5 spot. Hate to see Graterol moved, but have to give up something to get something. When Gonsovles and Stewart were top pitching prospects for Twins, hind sight looks like they would have been worth more as trade pieces for a proven player.

[twinsfanstreif]

All aboard the positivity train!!!! CHOO CHOO!!!!

[EbbyCalvin]

I like it better than Archer coming here. I would have preferred to see a bat going out the door though.

 

It is exciting to see an active front office. We still could move some talent for a true ace yet. Cupboard seems to be pretty full these days.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree that we still don't have an ace on the caliber of Justin Verlander or Gerrit Cole, but most teams don't. And JV still has not won a playoff game. 

Verlander has won 14 playoff games. (He hasn't won any World Series games, although his team has won 1 and he's pitched well enough to win a few times, even if he did have a pair of clunkers with Detroit.)

 

8-1 in the division series which the Twins could sorely use!

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

 

I didn't want three spots open for the young guys until Pineda gets back but I did want one.     

 

Just guessing that one spot still is as good as open for the young guys. With Maeda in the fold, I don't think Chacín's experience gives him any leg up for a rotation spot any more. I'm betting it's an open competition for that last spot and there's a good chance that Chacín doesn't win it and instead latches on elsewhere.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He did meet your qualifications of an "ace" in 2016

He did say "sustained" ERA which seems to imply he was looking for more than just random 1 year "aces". (A 3.48 ERA in Dodger Stadium for one year isn't particularly ace-like -- Alex Wood and Ross Stripling have achieved better than that in recent years too.)

 

Also, in that 2016 postseason -- Maeda's only postseason as a starter -- he gave up 12 hits, 9 walks + HBP, and 8 runs in 10.2 innings across 3 starts. Which sort of diminishes his regular season, and likely contributed to why the Dodgers were willing to shift him from the rotation in 2017-2019.

[IndianaTwin]

 

Just guessing that one spot still is as good as open for the young guys. With Maeda in the fold, I don't think Chacín's experience gives him any leg up for a rotation spot any more. I'm betting it's an open competition for that last spot and there's a good chance that Chacín doesn't win it and instead latches on elsewhere.

 

Concur that it's a now a more open spot, but not I still think he has a leg up with the experience and simply to be able to have another body available in Rochester if/when needed.

 

But seeing this front office, if he pitches reasonably well in spring training but is outdone by a rookie, I could envision them trading Chacin for a lottery pick. Teams could wait to see if the Twins drop him (or if he has an opt out), but if they can get a bit of a market for him, some team might bite. 

 

 

[rhal]

It's kind of silly to make predictions about how these guys are going to perform going forward and then assume your prediction is correct and become adamant one way or the other that it was a great or awful trade.  Time will tell and the Twins have examined this in far greater detail than any of us can.  But the thing most posters are forgetting is that before you get to win a World Series you need to win a playoff spot.  The Twins are far from an established, dominant favorite to do that.  This move significantly improves the likelihood they qualify for the playoffs. That is THE first step. It elevates the team floor and not just for this year which is a big deal.  To take playoff participation for granted is fool's gold.  Trading a great prospect for better stability in getting to the playoff is not a bad deal at all.

[Diesel]

The home away splits really scare me.... Dodger Stadium is a pitcher’s park, and Maeda has had some truly awful years on the road.....

[IndianaTwin]

 

All aboard the positivity train!!!! CHOO CHOO!!!!

 

You better believe it! I love train rides. Train rides are much more fun to me than wallowing.

[dex8425]

 

Verlander has won 14 playoff games. (He hasn't won any World Series games, although his team has won 1 and he's pitched well enough to win a few times, even if he did have a pair of clunkers with Detroit.)

 

8-1 in the division series which the Twins could sorely use!

Ah, yes, that's what I was thinking of. He's pitched well enough to have a world series win for sure. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The home away splits really scare me.... Dodger Stadium is a pitcher’s park, and Maeda has had some truly awful years on the road.....

I usually don't look too much at splits, but leaving Dodger Stadium could be an interesting transition. Looks like Maeda has the biggest home-road ERA differential of any Dodger starter over 2016-2019 (min. 50 innings in each split).

 

Home:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=9,184&splitArrPitch=&position=P&autoPt=true&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=1&startDate=2016-03-01&endDate=2019-11-01&players=&filter=&sort=5,-1

 

Road:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=184,10&splitArrPitch=&position=P&autoPt=true&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=1&startDate=2016-03-01&endDate=2019-11-01&players=&filter=&sort=5,-1

[Circus Boy]

Only two off-speed pitches to play off a not-so-fastball? Not worried. Sandy Koufax had only two pitches, and had an OK career.

[jrod23]

I would think it's impatience of needing quality pitching now and not being able to wait for Graterol's stuff mixed with the going rate for a #3-#4 pitcher, sprinkled with confidence in Balazovic and Duran.  My trust is in the FO, but sure hope they offered Duran before they offered Graterol.  I really would love to see Graterol reach his potential in 2 years on the starting staff of the Sox at Fenway.  I'm saddened we had to send him packing.  I was really looking forward to him dominating the AL Central for years to come.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Only two off-speed pitches to play off a not-so-fastball? Not worried. Sandy Koufax had only two pitches, and had an OK career.

Koufax was finished at age 30!

 

But he has exceeded his estimated life expectancy so far, which might be good news for Maeda.

[etwink]

I hope your optimism comes through.  I really do.

 

I look at his stats - while playing on a consistent NL leader - and see a guy who was pretty much a #5 guy on the Dodgers.  Now their #s 1-4 last year were pretty good, so maybe that answers the question, but “ace” says something more than a 32 year old guy who spent the last four years as a bottom rotation starter/reliever who hasn’t pitched more than 150+ innings in three years.

 

i will be thrilled to be proven wrong, though!!

[VivaBomboRivera!]

 

You better believe it! I love train rides. Train rides are much more fun to me than wallowing.

Are we there yet?

[cardsfan]

If Maeda was that great the Dodgers would have been able to get more for him than a 21 year old coming off of a shoulder injury.

[bighat]

 

That’s all nice, but it still adds up to a career ERA+ of 105, and he’s entering his age 32 season. That doesn’t scream ace to me.

Seems like you are just picking out the advanced stats and traditional stats you don't like, and ignoring the positives? I think this trade makes the Twins better in 2020. World Series here we come!

 

The days of cultivating the farm for 10 years to build an 82-win team are over. The Twins are GOOD now. We've got prospects everywhere and we don't hesitate to deal them for high-end talent to fill holes. We win100 games per year. The money's oozing out of the Pohlads' pockets, we buy top free agents, and we steamroll small-market wannabes. Enjoy it, man!

[Danchat]

 

If Maeda was that great the Dodgers would have been able to get more for him than a 21 year old coming off of a shoulder injury.

A consensus top 100 prospect who was able to pitch in the majors after said shoulder injury at the age of 21...

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

The more I sit on this deal, the more I like it.

 

Sure, I would have preferred more upside but that probably would have come with less control, as well.

 

And that contract is outrageous. If Maeda fails, the Twins are out one Tyler Clippard contract per year for the next four years.

 

And the more the Twins pay Maeda, the more they've gotten from him on the field, which makes it really easy to write those checks should they balloon to $10m a season.

 

Really a good deal overall, barring Graterol being a true top-flight ace, which is really unlikely to happen. Even if Graterol becomes a shut down reliever for six seasons, there's an equally good chance Maeda becomes a shut down reliever (or better) for four years, making even that situation close to a wash.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The more I sit on this deal, the more I like it.

 

Sure, I would have preferred more upside but that probably would have come with less control, as well.

 

And that contract is outrageous. If Maeda fails, the Twins are out one Tyler Clippard contract per year for the next four years.

 

And the more the Twins pay Maeda, the more they've gotten from him on the field, which makes it really easy to write those checks should they balloon to $10m a season.

 

Really a good deal overall, barring Graterol being a true top-flight ace, which is really unlikely to happen. Even if Graterol becomes a shut down reliever for six seasons, there's an equally good chance Maeda becomes a shut down reliever (or better) for four years, making even that situation close to a wash.

Can the Twins really afford to let Graterol mature in AA and AAA for 1-2 more seasons? They are in win now mode and still only had Pineda and Berrios under contract for 2021.

 

They needed a mid-rotation or better starter. Boston needed another pitching prospect not too far from the majors.

 

Boston can afford to let Graterol build his endurance in the minors for a couple years. Twins could do that, but it wouldn’t necessarily fill their hole in the rotation for 2021, let alone 2020.

 

Seems like each of the three teams got what they needed out of the trade.

[Channing1964]

If Maeda was that great the Dodgers would have been able to get more for him than a 21 year old coming off of a shoulder injury.

Actually what the Dodgers got for Kenta Maeda was..ummm David Price.