Article: Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects: 11-15

[Mike Sixel]

 

Precisely the point. The pros like him better than a lot of us.

 

didn't you say : Gordon was over-hyped by the fans

[jmlease1]

 

Our individual rankings, if anyone is interested:

 

Gonsalves - Seth (10), Nick (10), Tom (9), Cody (12)

Gordon - Seth (12), Nick (9), Tom (8), Cody (13)

Jeffers - Seth (14), Nick (14), Tom (18), Cody (9)

Rortvedt - Seth (24), Nick (13), Tom (12), Cody (15)

Severino - Seth (15), Nick (19), Tom (14), Cody (17)

 

Seth is giving up on Rortvedt!

 

[Tomj14]

 

Even a worse idea most of the time. Increase your odds of giving up one or more major league talents, and again, most likely for a fairly marginal incremental improvement. 

 

I'm not saying you don't do it. You do. But trade from surplus, not from areas of future need. 

The Twins could have traded just about every prospect for the last 6 or so years and not really missed out on anybody but Berrios. Yes, there are major league players and some pretty good ones, and some we are still hoping (fingers crossed) figure it out.

But prospects are just that until they prove otherwise.

[Vanimal46]

I think there's a massive difference between peak fan hype and peak value, Vanimal, and I think we tend to conflate the two things without really having a very solid idea about how much real trade value these prospects have.

 

Think of it this way: Gonsalves was picked after 109 other guys were selected. You're right in saying 9 times out of 10 these players picked from. say #40 and after flame out, and that's the case in 2013, where maybe 5 of the 70 players selected in front of Gonsalves look to be amounting to anything.

 

But even with his surprising success, and even if one could somehow ascertain his peak minor league value, what kind of MLB talent do you think he fetches? Probably a Blake Parker. Is it worth giving up on a gamble like Gonsalves for that?

I think you're selling Gonsalves too short if you think he was only worth a Blake Parker while on national publication top 100 lists. Good, established MLB players are traded for top 100 prospects all the time.

[gunnarthor]

I really like Rortvedt. He was extremely young for his league and position. In fact, he was the youngest catcher in A+ ball last year with that many at-bats. The Twins have been pushing him a lot since they drafted him. He could be a 21 year old catcher in AA.

[jkcarew]

Interesting to see the discrepancy of how Rortvedt is viewed...both among the staff and the posters.

 

Probably has to do with how his big offensive improvement from 2018 is interpreted. Can he build on it? How much?. He was drafted young, small and athletic (by catcher standards), and very raw out of a northern climate. Taken 56 overall in the 2nd round. Given his background, I'd say his bat is right about where we could reasonably expect it to be (he's actually 'still' a couple months younger than Jeffers)...right on track to being 'decent'. That would go a long way to usefulness at the major-league level, given he swings it left-handed and given his defensive prowess. I remain a believer.

[h2oface]

 

Gordon was a top 75 or higher prospect on several lists. I don't think this is about fans......not even a little.

 

Gordon has been over-hyped by fans, list makers, Twins FO, and himself. He has been a consensus equal opportunity over-hype. He's the man.

Edited February 1, 2019 by h2oface

[bird]

 

The Twins could have traded just about every prospect for the last 6 or so years and not really missed out on anybody but Berrios. Yes, there are major league players and some pretty good ones, and some we are still hoping (fingers crossed) figure it out.

But prospects are just that until they prove otherwise.

 

 

What would they have gotten for Rogers? Polanco? Kepler? So that's an utterly silly claim. I think you're going to be dead wrong about a dozen times real quick-like.

 

And sorry, I think some commenters become delusional on BOTH sides of an argument to trade a prospect or not. I used Gordon as an example of how preposterous it is for any of us to 1) think we can really be at all certain about a prospect's ceiling when he's 21 and getting his feet wet at AA, or to 2) conclude that we have a good idea about what kind of MLB talent a prospect like Gordon can attract. 

 

It's hard enough for the pros to gauge this. 

 

But my point is simply this: when you trade a big-time prospect with Gordon's clear athletic talents, you're doing so knowing there can be a wide variance of future outcomes regarding his skill development. Even when his minor league performance has gone from super encouraging to abysmal, like Gordon's has, there is a much narrower variance in his trade value. This risk should be acknowledged and managed, IMO. The way I would manage it is to trade from positional surplus so that when you DO lose on a trade it hurts you less because you have another option, and to avoid trades involving multiple high-profile prospects so as to decrease your chances of giving up the next Tatis Jr. for the next James Shields. That's all I'm saying.

 

Edited February 1, 2019 by birdwatcher

[bird]

 

Gordon has been over-hyped by fans, list makers, Twins FO, and himself. He has been a consensus equal opportunity over-hype. He's the man.

 

 

I wouldn't know, but I'd sure plunk down a $5 bet that you, right now, are under-hyping him.

Edited February 1, 2019 by birdwatcher

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

Gordon has been over-hyped by fans, list makers, Twins FO, and himself. He has been a consensus equal opportunity over-hype. He's the man.

May 22, 2018. I believe this is going to be remembered in the end as when Nick Gordon turned his career around. Everything that I have heard from Nick suggests that he now knows the hard work he will need to put in to fulfill the hype. 

[nater79a]

 

I'm assuming Luke Raley and Jhoan Duran aren't going to be listed in the top 10 but I would put both ahead of Ben Rortvedt.  He is probably outside my top 20.

 

Luke Raley was listed in the "Honorable Mentions".

Jhoan Duran will be in the top-10.

[h2oface]

 

I wouldn't know, but I'd sure plunk down a $5 bet that you, right now, are under-hyping him.

 

You're on. I don't know that I am under-hyping him to say I believe, according to his current status, that he has been universally over-hyped. I am just noticing his over-hype. I haven't even weighed in on my expectations, or predicted whether he will make it or not. That is because I have no opinion on that. I hope he becomes a star. I hope they all do. I would love to lose a pocket portrait of Lincoln. But to fall from 3rd on the team (wasn't he even higher at one point?) to 12th, and out of the national top 100's as well, is not a convincing counterpoint to the over-hype claim. At some point, his family pedigree and tools have to convert to a player that can't be kept out of the show. It is nothing, however, that "The Man" can't turn around with a season and performance that makes it impossible not to play him in the show, and that would be very welcome. I don't know what the criteria of success would be for a Number 1 draft pick (number 5 overall) for him to have reached and achieved a career that matches his "hype". Seems it would be more than just making it to the show. It would be to become a very good everyday MLB position player (not just a utility guy), too, wouldn't it?

[Tomj14]

 

What would they have gotten for Rogers? Polanco? Kepler? So that's an utterly silly claim. I think you're going to be dead wrong about a dozen times real quick-like.

What would they have gotten for Buxton, Romero, Rosario, Sano, Stewart, Meyer, Jay and Gordon?

We can play that game all day.

There is no arguing trading from excess, but there really is no such thing of excess prospects. Remember when Lewis, Gordon and Javier were excessive.

 

 

[markos]

 

You're on. I don't know that I am under-hyping him to say I believe, according to his current status, that he has been universally over-hyped. I am just noticing his over-hype. I haven't even weighed in on my expectations, or predicted whether he will make it or not. That is because I have no opinion on that. I hope he becomes a star. I hope they all do. I would love to lose a pocket portrait of Lincoln. But to fall from 3rd on the team (wasn't he even higher at one point?) to 12th, and out of the national top 100's as well, is not a convincing counterpoint to the over-hype claim. At some point, his family pedigree and tools have to convert to a player that can't be kept out of the show. It is nothing, however, that "The Man" can't turn around with a season and performance that makes it impossible not to play him in the show, and that would be very welcome. I don't know what the criteria of success would be for a Number 1 draft pick (number 5 overall) for him to have reached and achieved a career that matches his "hype". Seems it would be more than just making it to the show. It would be to become a very good everyday MLB position player (not just a utility guy), too, wouldn't it?

There is a lot of work that has been posted at Fangraphs and other websites about the expected value for both draft picks and prospect rankings. 

 

Draft picks:

A model by Jeff Zimmerman predicts that the #5 overall pick on average produces ~6 WAR over the first 6 years of the players' careers.

Looking at the 25 #5 picks prior to Gordon, only 11 achieved > 1 WAR for their career.

 

Prospect Ranking:

Gordon has primarily been in the 50-100 range of prospect list. That lines up pretty close with his draft capital. Research by Craig Edwards (and others) suggests that players in that range, on average, produce ~6 WAR over their first 7 years of team control. Further, ~50% bust (less than 1 WAR), and only 10% turn into stars (>3 WAR per year).

 

Anyway, if we just look at what history would predict Gordon should produce at any point in his profession career (based on his draft position and prospect rankings), the expected value isn't that high. I think getting one or more average or better seasons from him would be a huge win in all honesty, and greatly exceed any hype he has had in the past.

[Mike Sixel]

Clearly front offices disagree. It's almost impossible to get good prospects in trade right now. If anything, as a group, they are currently over valued, and smart teams should be trading therm for proven players.

[gagu]

 

I would not be excited about his ST invite.  With all the arms needing work, we always have extra catchers around - lots of them.  I think some marginal catchers have made a career of ST catching.  

 

Here is an example from 2016

Catchers (5)
Name Pos 2016 Age 
Juan Centeno C 26 MLB
Mitch Garver C/1B 25 A+
Carlos Paulino C 26 AAA
Alex Swim C/1B/OF 25 A+
Stuart Turner C 24 AA

On the other hand, the youngest player on your list is Stuart Turner at 24. Rortvedt is just 21. I see the ST invite as a definite positive.

[bird]

 

I think you're selling Gonsalves too short if you think he was only worth a Blake Parker while on national publication top 100 lists. Good, established MLB players are traded for top 100 prospects all the time.

 

 

I don't know, Van, Gonzo was what, #96 one year? So maybe he nets slightly better, like someone's Addison Reed from 2017? Teams give up a prospect like this at the deadline in exchange for a good, established relief pitcher, don't they? These guys don't get you a decent rotation piece or a 2 WAR position player with control benefits.

 

It took TWO premier prospects to land Pressly. Maciel started out the previous year as Houston's #5 prospect, which is what Gonzo is to the Twins now. And they had to add Alcala, who might just end up being as good as Pressly or better in his own right.

 

I think I want my club to be adding prospects at the deadline, not the other way around. Off-season, trade prospects who are redundant, sure.

[gagu]

 

I'm assuming Luke Raley and Jhoan Duran aren't going to be listed in the top 10 but I would put both ahead of Ben Rortvedt.  He is probably outside my top 20.

Unless there is a surprise prospect out there, Duran will be in the top 10 along with Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Larnach, Thorpe, Javier, Rooker, Enlow, and Baddoo. I would rank them in that order, with Duran between Enlow and Baddoo. We'll find that out tomorrow. Raley was listed as an honorable mention.

[gunnarthor]

It's always too early to give up on a prospect. If you remember, we had a young prospect back in the day that was tearing up the lower minor leagues and even had a decent half season at AA. But when he played the next year at AA he missed a large chunk of time and hit .237/.277/.396. He had his pop but his BB/K numbers went to hell. The next year, the 23 year old started in AAA but he was even worse - .242/.280/.379. A lot of posters had given up on him. But Eddie Rosario turned out ok.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

I don't know, Van, Gonzo was what, #96 one year? So maybe he nets slightly better, like someone's Addison Reed from 2017? Teams give up a prospect like this at the deadline in exchange for a good, established relief pitcher, don't they? These guys don't get you a decent rotation piece or a 2 WAR position player with control benefits.

 

It took TWO premier prospects to land Pressly. Maciel started out the previous year as Houston's #5 prospect, which is what Gonzo is to the Twins now. And they had to add Alcala, who might just end up being as good as Pressly or better in his own right.

 

I think I want my club to be adding prospects at the deadline, not the other way around. Off-season, trade prospects who are redundant, sure.

Not me. For once in my lifetime I'd like my team, the Twins, to be buyers at the trade deadline because we are shooting for a higher goal than dumping vets to add prospects. This mid-July I'd like to see us trade for Arenado for instance, headlined by Graterol and Rooker and whoever else it takes. Then see us immediately sign Nolan to a 7/245 mil deal. And in late Oct be celebrating the WS due in large part to this deal. Isn't that a big reason for having a farm?

[h2oface]

 

On the other hand, the youngest player on your list is Stuart Turner at 24. Rortvedt is just 21. I see the ST invite as a definite positive.

 

Teams need and excessive amount of catchers in spring training. Many catchers get invited. Many, many. Still, it is good that he is one of them, for sure. It can't hurt, unless he just totally stinks it up while he is there.

Edited February 2, 2019 by h2oface

[Aerodeliria]

Thanks for your hard work. I have enjoyed reading this series.

[Mr. Brooks]

Not me. For once in my lifetime I'd like my team, the Twins, to be buyers at the trade deadline because we are shooting for a higher goal than dumping vets to add prospects. This mid-July I'd like to see us trade for Arenado for instance, headlined by Graterol and Rooker and whoever else it takes. Then see us immediately sign Nolan to a 7/245 mil deal. And in late Oct be celebrating the WS due in large part to this deal. Isn't that a big reason for having a farm?

The Rockies won 91 games last year. It's pretty difficult to imagine them being sellers at the deadline.

And if they are, you aren't getting an MVP caliber player like Arenado without including Lewis or Kirilloff.

And finally, I can't possibly see him signing an extension if he's 2 months from free agency. Maybe there are more examples than I think, but I can't imagine that's ever happened, with a premiere player.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

The Rockies won 91 games last year. It's pretty difficult to imagine them being sellers at the deadline.
And if they are, you aren't getting an MVP caliber player like Arenado without including Lewis or Kirilloff.
And finally, I can't possibly see him signing an extension if he's 2 months from free agency. Maybe there are more examples than I think, but I can't imagine that's ever happened, with a premiere player.

Point is its getting about time to stop looking at ourselves as sellers every year. As far as what it takes to snag a player like Arenado in July I'm not so sure the price is as high as you think. This season the LAD got an expiring Machado for 1 top 100 prospect and 4 wild cards. Hats off to the LAD, they used their farm for what its intended for.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Seth is giving up on Rortvedt!

 

 

I really like Ben, and I think he took strong sides forward in 2018. 

[Loosey]

If Rortvedt ends up being a major league catcher who is a rock behind the plate and hits .240 with a .700 OPS I think the Twins have a their next 10 years of catcher.

 

That is what I expect out of him as a Major Leaguer.

[Seth Stohs]

 

On the other hand, the youngest player on your list is Stuart Turner at 24. Rortvedt is just 21. I see the ST invite as a definite positive.

 

It's simply the difference between being drafted out of high school and being drafted out of college. Turner, Swim, Garver were all college guys. Rortvedt and Brian Navarreto, who is going to big league camp for the 2nd time, were high school picks. 

[nater79a]

 

I don't know, Van, Gonzo was what, #96 one year? So maybe he nets slightly better, like someone's Addison Reed from 2017? Teams give up a prospect like this at the deadline in exchange for a good, established relief pitcher, don't they? These guys don't get you a decent rotation piece or a 2 WAR position player with control benefits.

 

It took TWO premier prospects to land Pressly. Maciel started out the previous year as Houston's #5 prospect, which is what Gonzo is to the Twins now. And they had to add Alcala, who might just end up being as good as Pressly or better in his own right.

 

I think I want my club to be adding prospects at the deadline, not the other way around. Off-season, trade prospects who are redundant, sure.

 

Think you meant Gilberto Celestino and not Maciel.  

Celestino came over in the deal for Pressly.   

Maciel in the Eduardo Escobar trade with the D-Backs.

 

 

Your point still stands - just wanted to correct the return.

 

Edited February 2, 2019 by nater79a

[beckmt]

At the current time Pressly is probably among the top 15 relievers in baseball as Houston unlocked his talent.  Your point of trading prospects may be correct if your origanization cannot unlock the top end talent, and Twins have not been able to do that among pitchers for a long, long, time.  Alston seems to have started some process last year and I hope that Wes Johnson can turn these prospects into very good pitching.  That will go a long way toward the sustainable process the new FO is hypeing. 

[beckmt]

Gonsalves for me will have to harness everything he has just to be a #4, #5 starter in the major leagues.  That is a tough path.  I would  rank him more toward where you have Stewart now.  On the other hand some other pitchers should be higher, but do not know if you rank on status plus closeness to the major leagues or just pure upside.