Article: Emptying the Notebook: Happ, Dipoto, Boras and Blueprints

[Tom Froemming]

The Twins are reportedly interested in J.A. Happ, which may or not really mean anything at all. We can assume the Twins are interested in a lot of guys, right? Welcome to the offseason!

 

There are some other rumblings coming out of the GM Meetings, as well as other happenings in the baseball world that are worth turning your attention to. Let’s get to it ...What are your thoughts on J.A. Happ?

Happ has been a great starting pitcher over the past four seasons, posting a 3.48 ERA (121 ERA+) and 1.21 WHIP for the Mariners, Pirates, Blue Jays and Yankees. The problem is that means he’s good enough to command a multi-year deal, though he’s already 36-years-old. The Twins could use a left-handed starting pitcher, and Happ would also add some experience and leadership.

 

MLB Trade Rumors had Happ has their No. 9 free agent and predicted he'll receive a three-year, $48 million deal (from the Angels) while FanGraphs had him ranked 21st and projected a two-year $28 million.

 

There were some rumblings of a Seattle fire sale brewing, but GM Jerry Dipoto downplayed that possibility, telling MLB.com “we're not looking to rip our club down. We're just too talented to do that.” Dipoto being Dipoto, he went ahead and made a deal tonight, sending catcher Mike Zunino to Tampa Bay for outfielder Mallex Smith. This is a situation worth keeping an eye on, a the M’s have pieces on their pitching staff and infield that could represent upgrades for the Twins.

 

High-profile agent Scott Boras name dropped the Twins, and not in a favorable manner.

OK. The Twins are a lower-market payroll team and attendance isn’t booming, but of all the teams you’re gonna take a cheap shot at Minnesota? Really? Per USA Today, the Twins had the 16th-highest Opening Day payroll and per ESPN they were 20th in attendance. Maybe Scott should stick to marketing his clients instead of shooting off super lame jokes.

 

Of course, it’s when his clients arrive when Twins fans are really gonna show up.

 

Earlier this week, Nick shared his offseason blueprint that envisioned the Twins as big spenders. The site has been booming with blueprints, as both the forums and the blog section have been active. Grab a copy of the Offseason Handbook for whatever price you feel is appropriate and put together your own blueprint today.

 

Matt Eddy of Baseball America shared a list of 520 minor league free agents. One name that really jumped out to me was Dilson Herrera. He’s a 24-year-old second baseman who has some MLB time (108 games) with the Mets and Reds. Herrera has a .290/.349/.461 (.809 OPS) batting line in 1,305 plate appearances in Triple A. The Twins will certainly aim higher in their search for a second baseman, but Herrera is an interesting fallback option.

 

Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported that it won’t be too long before the Twins hear final word on Joe Mauer’s future.

 

Also over at The Athletic, Jim Bowdenshared five potential landing spots for J.T. Realmuto, should the Marlins decide to deal him. Spoiler alert! Twins are not listed.

 

Kennys Vargas signed with Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines.

 

Click here to view the article

[Seth Stohs]

I was very surprised by the news that Kirilloff is now a Boras client (along with Royce). Kirilloff just switched to Boras less than two weeks ago. 

 

I don't know what to make of that. 

 

But, I was trying to figure out some of the Twins players who were also Boras clients.

 

 

Lewis, Kirilloff, Eades. 

 

Jeff Manship, Kenny Rogers, Carlos Gomez. Who else?

[Squirrel]

Both Lewis and Kirilloff are Boris clients? Oh boy ... neither is going to sign here long term. Once they are able to go they are gone.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Both Lewis and Kirilloff are Boris clients? Oh boy ... neither is going to sign here long term. Once they are able to go they are gone.

 

I don't necessarily think that is true, and obviously it's not something we would need to worry about for 7-8 years. 

[tvagle]

 

I was very surprised by the news that Kirilloff is now a Boras client (along with Royce). Kirilloff just switched to Boras less than two weeks ago. 

 

I don't know what to make of that. 

 

But, I was trying to figure out some of the Twins players who were also Boras clients.

 

 

Lewis, Kirilloff, Eades. 

 

Jeff Manship, Kenny Rogers, Carlos Gomez. Who else?

 

Here's a look at who could be a Boras client and a Twin

 

Others who were:

 

Joe Crede

Alex Meyer

Big Mike Pelfrey

 

Does Jason Varitek count?

[Brandon]

The Twins had a 1rst round pick that was a first baseman. ... Travis Lee i think...

[Riverbrian]

Once you rub the Twins Fan off of yourself for a moment. 

 

The joke is actually kinda funny. 

 

 

[MN_ExPat]

I know Boras is a lot of hot air and that’s a big part of his job as an agent. When his parasitic host... err I mean client eats well, he eats well. It’s part of the game and you have to accept it to some degree.

 

But I just can’t shake how he in particular actually makes me root for ownership and MLB league leadership. Think I need to get my head checked.

[Thrylos]

 

Here's a look at who could be a Boras client and a Twin

 

Others who were:

 

Joe Crede

Alex Meyer

Big Mike Pelfrey

 

Does Jason Varitek count?

 

Not while with the Twins but Denard Span is a Boras client now.

[Thrylos]

 

Both Lewis and Kirilloff are Boris clients? Oh boy ... neither is going to sign here long term. Once they are able to go they are gone.

 

Boras is 66.  The Twins have up to 7-8 years of control of these 2 before they become free agents.  He might be retired by then  

[MN_ExPat]

Boras is 66.  The Twins have up to 7-8 years of control of these 2 before they become free agents.  He might be retired by then

 

Huzzah!!!

[USAFChief]

I know it's just a joke by Boras, and it's actually sort of clever, but there's a reason he used the Twins.  One of Falvey/Levine's jobs (and ownership's job) is to remove the perception from fans, players and agents that the Twins are the backwater of MLB.

 

For fans, the Twins need to figure out how to become as hot a topic as the Vikings in the region. Or at least a close second, rather than the very distant second they are currently. It can be done.

 

As for players and agents, It's not just about money when players decide who to play for. When Verlander was up for trade from Detroit, one of the primary arguments used here against the idea was "he won't come to the Twins." If that's true, it's a problem, and one that needs fixing. 

 

The first thing they have to do, IMO, is to start taking themselves seriously. Way less talk about what they can't do, and way more action proving they not only can, but will, play at the highest level. No free agent is "too expensive." No contract is too much. 

 

They obviously do have restrictions. They can't sign everyone, and some contracts are just bad ideas. But there's no reason Manny Machado should be out of reach, and there needs to be a change where nobody, including Machado, thinks he's out of reach.

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

They can't sign everyone, and some contracts are just bad ideas. But there's no reason Manny Machado should be out of reach, and there needs to be a change where nobody, including Machado, thinks he's out of reach.

 

There is a good reason that Machado should be out of reach:  

Unless they spend that $ for a true ace and get a LHSP who can be a true two so these 2 can at least on paper match with the top 2 of Cleveland, Houston, and Boston,  and unless they invest decent amount of $ in their pen, Machado would be just yet another layer of lipstick on a pig.

Edited November 8, 2018 by Thrylos

[USAFChief]

 

There is a good reason that Machado should be out of reach:  

Unless they spend that $ for a true ace and get a LHSP who can be a true two so these 2 can at least on paper match with the top 2 of Cleveland, Houston, and Boston,  and unless they invest decent amount of $ in their pen, Machado would be just yet another layer of lipstick on a pig.

You've missed the point.

[yarnivek1972]

I was very surprised by the news that Kirilloff is now a Boras client (along with Royce). Kirilloff just switched to Boras less than two weeks ago.

 

I don't know what to make of that.

 

But, I was trying to figure out some of the Twins players who were also Boras clients.

 

 

Lewis, Kirilloff, Eades.

 

Jeff Manship, Kenny Rogers, Carlos Gomez. Who else?

I thought Kyle Lohse was. I could be wrong.

[beckmt]

I know this was a semi joke. I do agree Twins need to spend major money on pitching to get to the next level.

[yarnivek1972]

I know this was a semi joke. I do agree Twins need to spend major money on pitching to get to the next level.

As the staff stands now, yes. However, Falvey has said he is looking to create a model for sustainable success (not sure exact wording). That means drafting and developing better pitchers. Frankly, that’s true for any team.

[nicksaviking]

Boras had been saving that joke for awhile, and it was a poor one. Not in bad taste, just really, really dumb. While the Twins may not have made smart moves last winter, they did make a lot of moves. I'd bet there were few teams that gave out more MLB contracts to free agents than the Twins last year. If anything, Boras is just stung that the Twins waited until after many of those guys were willing to take a discount. If that's the case, blame the other teams, at least the Twins did sign these vets instead of rolling with youngsters on league minimum contracts like 70% of the other clubs did.

 

Also, we can't overcome the fact that Minnesota is geographically unattractive to a majority of players. Boras needs to stop pretending that he wants the Twins to spend more on free agents. What he really wants is the Twins to BID more on free agents to drive up their prices for the more attractive markets.

 

That said, if Lewis and Kirilloff are studs and leave us for the big lights of NY and the beaches of LA, that's on them, not Boras. They choose their agent because they want what the agent can provide; the agent doesn't pick the players.

[jmlease1]

How many of Scott Boras' "clients" actually get any time with Scott Boras himself? It's one of the reasons you see guys changing agents, not unusual for some of them to realize they may have signed with the super-agent, but he spends most of his time with other people. I'm certainly not worried about a couple of our minor league guys being signed with a blowhard agent who insults the franchise; they're already signed to the team.

 

Don't know that I love Happ as a signing...I suspect if he gets a 3-year deal; that last year is going to be crap. (ineffective and/or injured) I keep thinking it about it this way: Kyle Gibson right now is our #2 starter. I'd like anyone we sign to be better than Kyle Gibson. Not sure Happ is that guy, he feels more like a 3 or 4 guy and seems unlikely to be as good next year as he was this year (and definitely not as good as he was for NY)

[tvagle]

Living somewhat near NDFan...in his honor (I was going to make the list all on paragraph...but that was too much work), here's the MLBTR Agency List for Boras Corp.

 

Player Team Agency
Dustin Ackley Angels Boras Corporation

Jose Altuve Astros Boras Corporation

Pedro Alvarez Orioles Boras Corporation

Elvis Andrus Rangers Boras Corporation

Rick Ankiel Mets Boras Corporation

Mark Appel Phillies Boras Corporation
Jake Arrieta Phillies Boras Corporation
Michael Baez Padres Boras Corporation
Jeff Baker Marlins Boras Corporation
Josh Bell Padres Boras Corporation
Josh Bell Pirates Boras Corporation
Cody Bellinger Dodgers Boras Corporation
Adrian Beltre Rangers Boras Corporation
Engel Beltre Giants Boras Corporation
Christian Bethancourt Brewers Boras Corporation
Willie Bloomquist Diamondbacks Boras Corporation
Xander Bogaerts Red Sox Boras Corporation
Julio Borbon Orioles Boras Corporation
Brad Boxberger Diamondbacks Boras Corporation
Andrew Brackman White Sox Boras Corporation
Jackie Bradley Jr. Red Sox Boras Corporation
Zach Britton Yankees Boras Corporation
Domonic Brown Rockies Boras Corporation
Gary Brown Angels Boras Corporation
Kris Bryant Cubs Boras Corporation
Everth Cabrera White Sox Boras Corporation
Willie Calhoun Rangers Boras Corporation
Matt Chapman Athletics Boras Corporation
Bruce Chen Indians Boras Corporation
Wei-Yin Chen Marlins Boras Corporation
Shin-Soo Choo Rangers Boras Corporation
Chris Coghlan Blue Jays Boras Corporation
Gerrit Cole Astros Boras Corporation
Zach Cone Rangers Boras Corporation
Zach Cone Rangers Boras Corporation
Michael Conforto Mets Boras Corporation
Alex Cora Cardinals Boras Corporation
Jarred Cosart Padres Boras Corporation
Joe Crede Rockies Boras Corporation
Colin Curtis Yankees Boras Corporation
Johnny Damon Indians Boras Corporation
Zach Davies Brewers Boras Corporation
Chris Davis Orioles Boras Corporation
Jose De Leon Dodgers Boras Corporation
Mason Denaburg Nationals Boras Corporation
Jason Donald Rangers Boras Corporation
J.D. Drew Red Sox Boras Corporation
Stephen Drew Nationals Boras Corporation
Jacoby Ellsbury Yankees Boras Corporation
Prince Fielder Rangers Boras Corporation
Josh Fields Dodgers Boras Corporation
Nick Franklin Brewers Boras Corporation
Joey Gallo Rangers Boras Corporation
Carlos Gomez Rays Boras Corporation
Alberto Gonzalez Tigers Boras Corporation
Carlos Gonzalez Rockies Boras Corporation
Gio Gonzalez Nationals Boras Corporation
Marwin Gonzalez Astros Boras Corporation
Brian Goodwin Royals Boras Corporation
Grant Green Marlins Boras Corporation
Tyler Greene Phillies Boras Corporation
Alexander Guerrero Dodgers Boras Corporation
Mark Hamilton Red Sox Boras Corporation
Bryce Harper Nationals Boras Corporation
Matt Harvey Reds Boras Corporation
Blake Hawksworth Dodgers Boras Corporation
Austin Hedges Padres Boras Corporation
Jeremy Hellickson Nationals Boras Corporation
Luke Hochevar Royals Boras Corporation
Greg Holland Nationals Boras Corporation
Matt Holliday Rockies Boras Corporation
Rhys Hoskins Phillies Boras Corporation
Eric Hosmer Padres Boras Corporation
Dillon Howard Indians Boras Corporation
Desmond Jennings Mets Boras Corporation
Andruw Jones Yankees Boras Corporation
Jair Jurrjens Dodgers Boras Corporation
Ian Kennedy Royals Boras Corporation
Yusei Kikuchi  Boras Corporation
Alex Kirilloff Twins Boras Corporation
Matt LaPorta Orioles Boras Corporation
Kyle Lohse Royals Boras Corporation
Derek Lowe Yankees Boras Corporation
Jesus Luzardo Athletics Boras Corporation
Martin Maldonado Astros Boras Corporation
Jeff Manship Reds Boras Corporation
J.D. Martinez Red Sox Boras Corporation
Ryan Mattheus Reds Boras Corporation
Lance McCullers Jr. Astros Boras Corporation
Billy McKinney Blue Jays Boras Corporation
Adonis Medina Phillies Boras Corporation
Alex Meyer Angels Boras Corporation
Kevin Millwood Mariners Boras Corporation
Zach Miner Mariners Boras Corporation
Franklin Morales Blue Jays Boras Corporation
Adrian Morejon Padres Boras Corporation
Mike Moustakas Brewers Boras Corporation
Xavier Nady Mariners Boras Corporation
Dustin Nippert  Boras Corporation
Andrew Oliver Brewers Boras Corporation
Magglio Ordonez Tigers Boras Corporation
Ricky Oropesa Giants Boras Corporation
Marcell Ozuna Cardinals Boras Corporation
Chris Paddack Padres Boras Corporation
Eric Patterson Brewers Boras Corporation
James Paxton Mariners Boras Corporation
Mike Pelfrey White Sox Boras Corporation
Carlos Pena Rays Boras Corporation
Tony Pena Angels Boras Corporation
Oliver Perez Indians Boras Corporation
Cord Phelps Phillies Boras Corporation
Jurickson Profar Rangers Boras Corporation
Noe Ramirez Angels Boras Corporation
Anthony Ranaudo White Sox Boras Corporation
Cornelius Randolph Phillies Boras Corporation
Chris Reed Marlins Boras Corporation
Anthony Rendon Nationals Boras Corporation
Alex Rios Royals Boras Corporation
Carlos Rodon White Sox Boras Corporation
Ivan Rodriguez Nationals Boras Corporation
Trevor Rosenthal Marlins Boras Corporation
Addison Russell Cubs Boras Corporation
Hyun-Jin Ryu Dodgers Boras Corporation
Aaron Sanchez Blue Jays Boras Corporation
Sixto Sanchez Phillies Boras Corporation
Max Scherzer Nationals Boras Corporation
Corey Seager Dodgers Boras Corporation
Bobby Seay  Boras Corporation
Juan Soto Nationals Boras Corporation
Ryan Spilborghs Rangers Boras Corporation
Bubba Starling Royals Boras Corporation
D.J. Stewart Orioles Boras Corporation
Christin Stewart Orioles Boras Corporation
Stephen Strasburg Nationals Boras Corporation
Taylor Teagarden Cubs Boras Corporation
Touki Toussaint Braves Boras Corporation
Carlos Triunfel Reds Boras Corporation
Jacob Turner Tigers Boras Corporation
Julio Urias Dodgers Boras Corporation
Jason Varitek Red Sox Boras Corporation
Vince Velasquez Phillies Boras Corporation
Dayan Viciedo White Sox Boras Corporation
Angel Villalona Giants Boras Corporation
Wei-Chung Wang Brewers Boras Corporation
Tony Watson Giants Boras Corporation
Jered Weaver Padres Boras Corporation
Jayson Werth Mariners Boras Corporation
Matt Wieters Nationals Boras Corporation
Nick Williams Phillies Boras Corporation
Zach Wilson Yankees Boras Corporation
Suk-min Yoon Orioles Boras Corporation
Barry Zito Athletics Boras Corporation

[snap4birds]

Thanks for the link of the minor league free agents.  I wonder how many of those guys were Top 100 prospects at some point?  (Not counting guys who had MLB careers like Mike Napoli, etc.)  Lots of familiar names in that list.

[Major League Ready]

 

As the staff stands now, yes. However, Falvey has said he is looking to create a model for sustainable success (not sure exact wording). That means drafting and developing better pitchers. Frankly, that’s true for any team.

 

We have been less than mediocre developing pitching and that failure has resulted in us fielding teams between mediocre and horrible. We keep looking for the easy road to success. That does not exist for a team with less than average revenue in a geographically undesirable location.

 

Here is a complete list of legit Ace SPs that signed with a team that profiles as stated above.

 

 --- Zack Greinke (overlooking of course the geographically undesirable part)

 

Here is a complete list of legit Ace SPs that signed with a team that profiles as stated above that did not sign a billion dollar TV contract the year before.

 

 ---

 

 

Edited November 8, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready

[caninatl04]

The article states:

"There were some rumblings of a Seattle fire sale brewing"

 

Jean Segura hit over .300 last year. And he's a SS. But the contract is hefty-- 14 million / year for 7 more years.

 

Closer Edwin Diaz may be untouchable, but Alex Colome might be available. His arb salary last year was north of $5 million

[Mike Sixel]

 

There is a good reason that Machado should be out of reach:  

Unless they spend that $ for a true ace and get a LHSP who can be a true two so these 2 can at least on paper match with the top 2 of Cleveland, Houston, and Boston,  and unless they invest decent amount of $ in their pen, Machado would be just yet another layer of lipstick on a pig.

 

you completely whiffed on the point of that post.....

[Mike Sixel]

 

We have been less than mediocre developing pitching and that failure has resulted in us fielding teams between mediocre and horrible. We keep looking for the easy road to success. That does not exist for a team with less than average revenue in a geographically undesirable location.

 

Here is a complete list of legit Ace SPs that signed with a team that profiles as stated above.

 

 --- Zack Greinke (overlooking of course the geographically undesirable part)

 

Here is a complete list of legit Ace SPs that signed with a team that profiles as stated above that did not sign a billion dollar TV contract the year before.

 

 ---

 

How about signing a legit number 3 to more than a 1 year deal....that would be a huge step up.....not everyone here is saying they have to sing an "ace".....

[Major League Ready]

 

The article states:
"There were some rumblings of a Seattle fire sale brewing"

Jean Segura hit over .300 last year. And he's a SS. But the contract is hefty-- 14 million / year for 7 more years.

Closer Edwin Diaz may be untouchable, but Alex Colome might be available. His arb salary last year was north of $5 million

 

Segura has more WAR than Bryce Harper over the past 3 years (11.2 vs 11.8) 

Brian Dozier had more WAR than both of them (12)

 

Harper had one huge year four years ago(2015) with a WAR of 9.3. Since then he has been good but not great and $300M was not enough?  

 

Finding $5M FAs that produce 2 WAR is a lot more important than signing guys that average 3.5 for $35M/year.

[Major League Ready]

 

How about signing a legit number 3 to more than a 1 year deal....that would be a huge step up.....not everyone here is saying they have to sing an "ace".....

No disagreement here, MIke. My response was targeted specifically at our inability to draft, trade for, and develop SP which is an entirely different point. We need to develop more than one good SP per decade.

[Mike Sixel]

 

No disagreement here, MIke. My response was targeted specifically at our inability to draft, trade for, and develop SP which is an entirely different point. We need to develop more than one good SP per decade.

 

Agreed......it's kind of hard to believe how bad they've been, especially because we were led to believe they had great scouts (starting with their GM), and that their entire strategy was build from within.....

[Tom Froemming]

 

Segura has more WAR than Bryce Harper over the past 3 years (11.2 vs 11.8) 

Brian Dozier had more WAR than both of them (12)

 

Harper had one huge year four years ago(2015) with a WAR of 9.3. Since then he has been good but not great and $300M was not enough?  

 

Finding $5M FAs that produce 2 WAR is a lot more important than signing guys that average 3.5 for $35M/year.

Is WAR really that great of a stat?

 

wRC+ 2016-18

Harper 132

Segura 117

Dozier 116

 

wOBA 2016-18

Harper .375

Dozier .346

Segura .345

 

OPS 2016-18

Harper .897

Dozier .817

Segura .803

 

I have a really hard time believing that whatever contributions Dozier and Segura make defensively and on the base paths makes up for that big of a gap in overall offensive production.

[ashbury]

Finding $5M FAs that produce 2 WAR is a lot more important than signing guys that average 3.5 for $35M/year.

Many years I'd agree with you, but I don't think 2019 is such a season.

 

2 WAR is pretty close to the definition of "average major leaguer". If that's all you're aiming for, and you don't have some superior players already on the roster, you're not really contending, you're just average.

 

Business analytics people at airlines and oil firms and forestry companies understand that when you have a constrained system, it may be difficult to anticipate exactly which constraints will be binding and which will be slack. Learning which, will tell you how to proceed with your strategic planning. On a baseball team, among the most crucial constraints are the 25-man roster (you can't win a pennant by using 100 cheap 1-WAR players), the 40-man roster (ditto), and your budget. Right now, we have very little likelihood of exceeding the budget until we sign some new players. Given a lot of potentially average players on board right now, at low cost, it makes sense to sign a few high-WAR potential players, even if the price-performance isn't good.

 

If you're in the habit of assuming that budget will always be the binding constraint at the very outset, you'll miss opportunities.

 

There's a difference between efficiency and effectiveness. With all our cost-efficient youngsters, I want to focus on effectiveness, for the few guys we do sign.

 

I don't know right now that $35M for 3+ WAR isn't actually a pretty good deal for this present situation, unless you have a better way to acquire 3+ WAR.