Article: MIN 5, LAA 4: Rally Rosie

[Tom Froemming]

Rally monkey? Pfff, who needs it? Trailing 4-2 in the top of the ninth, Eddie Rosario hit a leadoff homer, his second of the game, to jumpstart a comeback effort. Mitch Garver came off the bench to deliver a huge game-tying single, Bobby Wilson put the Twins up on a sac fly and Fernando Rodney locked down the save to secure a big win for the Twins.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)

Download attachment: Snapshot511.png Download attachment: WinEx511.png

The Twins really couldn’t get much of anything going until the ninth. Take a look at that graph, they really stormed back and swiped this game away from the Angels. Brian Dozier hit a solo homer in first inning, Rosario added a solo tater in the sixth and that was it prior to the big three-run ninth. Here’s how that unfolded:

 

Rosario homer.

Robbie Grossman strikeout.

Logan Morrison double.

Max Kepler (pinch hitting for Byron Buxton) intentional walk.

Garver (pinch hitting for Ehire Adrianza) single scores Morrison, Kepler goes first-to-third.

Wilson sac fly scores Kepler.

That gives Rosario six home runs in 10 games so far this month. Dozier followed up his 4-for-4 night by going 2-for-3 with a walk. Grossman also collected two hits.

 

Lance Lynn failed to complete five innings for the third time in seven starts and posted a game score under 35 for the fourth time. Is this just the new Lance Lynn?

 

Last season, he completed five innings in 29 of his 33 starts and had a game score below 35 just three times. Getting to camp late couldn’t have helped, and the switch to the AL can be difficult, but he couldn’t have fallen this far this fast, right?

 

Luckily the bullpen was outstanding. Taylor Rogers entered the game with the bases loaded and two out in the fifth and got the third out on a weak comebacker. That was huge.

 

Trevor Hildenberger struck out three batters over 1 1/3 perfect innings. Zach Duke struck out the only batter he faced (Shohei Ohtani). Matt Magill pitched a perfect eighth to pick up his first MLB victory. Rodney gave up some hard contact, but he got the job done for his sixth save on the season.

 

Postgame With Molitor

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:Download attachment: Bullpen511.png

 

Next Three Games

Sat at LAA, 8:07 pm CT

Sun at LAA, 3:07 pm CT

Mon vs. SEA, 6:10 pm CT

 

Last Three Games

LAA 7, MIN 4: What’s Up With Berrios?

MIN 7, STL 1: Five Alive

MIN 6, STL 0: Fernand0 R0mer0!!!!

 

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[Comrade Bork]

Waaaaht! I hang with the GF for 5 minutes!

[Comrade Bork]

Waaaaht! I hang with the GF for 5 minutes!

[Circus Boy]

Truly fun to wake up and read about a Twins comeback win.

[h2oface]

Well that was a surprise. My favorite part of the game tonight, was that Molitor only used Duke for one out. Finally.

[twinssouth]

Lynn getting hammered like this is not surprising, all he throws is FB (2 seam, 4 seam) coming in at 91 to 93/94, occasional CB. Hitters are just teeing up on him.

 

 

 

 

Lynn's limited arsenal seems opposite to Twins preaching to prospects they must have 3 or 4 pitches (all mastered) before they come up, I.e. Gonsalves.

[Don Walcott]

I’m now a bit skeptical about WPA. How is Garver so high for basically one single, when Rosario doesn’t make the list after being solely responsible for 40% of the team’s runs? I know the stat looks at probable outcomes at the time the plays are made, but looking at it in retrospect, Garver doesn’t get up with a chance to tie without Rosie’s homers. Shouldn’t the stat take that into account?

[Old Twins Cap]

If they can get some offense, and eventual stardom, out of Buxton, this team's window for contention gets thrown wide open.

[bighat]

 

If they can get some offense, and eventual stardom, out of Buxton, this team's window for contention gets thrown wide open.

 

Yeah, it's rough to see Buxton striking out twice (again) tonight, then getting pinch-hit for...in this case, it meant losing Buxton for the 9th inning on defense in a 1-run game. Poor offense sometimes does outweigh good defense. The good news is we've seen Buxton get hot before, and when he's in the zone he's terrific at the plate. And he was just starting to come around too before he got hurt. I'm guessing the Twins will have to wait another few weeks for his bat to adjust.

 

Rosario and Escobar have flat out pulled this team out of the ditch. Hey, Rodney with another save, that ERA looking almost reasonable! And how about this catcher, Wilson? The Twins are very hot with Castro out of the lineup, I'm feeling uneasy about his return.

 

What a great way to wake up! Let's get one more today boys!

[slash129]

Taking that win and running after consecutive nights of less than stellar starting pitching. Lynn junked it through four, fell apart in the fifth and somehow talked Monitor into staying in against Ohtani and Simmons.

 

Gibson and Romero have me hopeful for at least a split.

[rdehring]

Certainly hope the Twins extend both Escobar and Rosario this summer.  They are the heart of this team.  

 

And let's give Buxton a break.  He missed what, two, three weeks and has been back for two games.  Very few players would step back into that situation and immediately look good at the plate.  And most of those aren't with us anymore!

[ThejacKmp]

Waaaaht! I hang with the GF for 5 minutes!

 

I think we can all fill in the inappropriate joke that should follow this statement.

[Blake]

I wonder how the Angels feel about losing to a team that isn't really hitting on all cylinders yet?

[mikelink45]

If Twins really want to win, they put Lynn in the BP and call up Gonsalves.  Unless the FO just does not want to admit an error we have to look at performance and Lynn does not have it.   7.34 ERA, -0.5 WAR - it is now seven games and that is a good sample for a pitcher.  25 BB - 36 K.   

 

It is time we see if we have a better pitcher in AAA.  

 

Buxton and his 4 Ks in two games is not struggling, he is flailing.  He is lost at the plate and so we lose his defense in the ninth.  That is not good, especially since we have not called up a good defensive OF for the bench. 

[Mill1634]

Fantastic win. Wonder if there is a reason reed hasn’t been used in awhile? However, I think magill is a diamond in the rough the twins found.

 

Rosario is carrying the offense right now, and buxton looks lost at the plate. Certainly looks like a rehab assignment would have been good, but it’s easy to play MMQB. I feel good about our chances tonight with the new Gibson we found

[DocBauer]

Had a good feeling about the game.

 

Lost my good feeling about the game.

 

Fell asleep early.

 

Woke up to a good feeling about the game.

 

Twins win! Ain't life grand?

[Han Joelo]

So many to congratulate, but I'll single out Rogers, for cleaning up Lynn (and Molitor's?) mess.

[Darius]

Huge win.

 

Something I found funny was last night someone was railing on Rosario for going 0-fer and that being why the team lost.

 

We'll he sure got the message

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

Lance Lynn failed to complete five innings for the third time in seven starts and posted a game score under 35 for the fourth time. Is this just the new Lance Lynn?

 

Last season, he completed five innings in 29 of his 33 starts and had a game score below 35 just three times. Getting to camp late couldn’t have helped, and the switch to the AL can be difficult, but he couldn’t have fallen this far this fast, right?

]

So there were hot takes like this one

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/twins-reportedly-offered-lance-lynn-two-years-and-20-million-which-is-a-lowball/

 

He signed for even less... and the Twins have thus far gotten 7.34 ERA and tons of short starts.

 

His xFip has stayed similar to 2017 at 4.62 compared to 4.75 in 17. HR/9 20.7 is way up, as has is k/9 9.3 which are both higher than his career norms.

 

.381 BABIP plus 20hr/9 is hurting his success badly.

 

I’m optimistic the fielding will improve behind him to reduce the BABIP and the HR/9 will normalize a bit. At least he’d be a solid number 5 rather than a weak number 5...

[Dantes929]

 

I think we can all fill in the inappropriate joke that should follow this statement.

I'm just impressed.  Apparently he did it twice.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Lynn getting hammered like this is not surprising, all he throws is FB (2 seam, 4 seam) coming in at 91 to 93/94, occasional CB. Hitters are just teeing up on him. Lynn's limited arsenal seems opposite to Twins preaching to prospects they must have 3 or 4 pitches (all mastered) before they come up, I.e. Gonsalves.

But it's not like that's anything new this year. That's who he's been from the get-go and he's got several years of being a solid MLB starter under his belt.

 

In fact, he's actually throwing a bit harder this year than last, but the control has gone out the window. I was hoping his last start signaled a turning point. Guess not.

 

I’m now a bit skeptical about WPA. How is Garver so high for basically one single, when Rosario doesn’t make the list after being solely responsible for 40% of the team’s runs? I know the stat looks at probable outcomes at the time the plays are made, but looking at it in retrospect, Garver doesn’t get up with a chance to tie without Rosie’s homers. Shouldn’t the stat take that into account?

It's a context-only stat. Rosario's second homer only decreased the Angels' win expectancy from 92.8% to 84.0%. That Garver single sunk it from 72.1% to 31.4%. The leverage index on Rosario's homers were 0.33 and 1.48. On Garver's single it was 6.11.

 

A couple key things to keep in mind are that Garver's hit also advanced a runner to third with only one out and that Rosario had some negative WPA outcomes from earlier in the game.

 

Rosario's biggest plate appearance in terms of leverage index came in the third inning. Rosie was up with two down and the bases loaded. He flied out, which counted as -.069 WPA for him.

[BoofBonser]

 

Waaaaht! I hang with the GF for 5 minutes!

Hahaha same here
Fell asleep in the 6th inning, woke up and the Twins had won

[MN_ExPat]

 

But it's not like that's anything new this year. That's who he's been from the get-go and he's got several years of being a solid MLB starter under his belt.

 

In fact, he's actually throwing a bit harder this year than last, but the control has gone out the window. I was hoping his last start signaled a turning point. Guess not.

I can't say with anything approaching a coherent or rational thought what the FOs thoughts and concerns may be about Lynn (if any), but watching the game last night, he just looked "off".   I started thinking about it (I know... painful thought) and it reminded me of Morrison, that first month.   Then when I read your post that he was actually throwing harder than last year, it really tied in with that.   

 

Lynn just seems like he's pressing too much.   Like he's trying to get a K on every pitch and putting max effort into everything... he's just not "looking" that smooth in his delivery.   I see the same thing in my son when he pitches and he tries to get something "extra" on his FB (his elbow drops and his mechanics get out of sync causing his arm to be late and his front shoulder opening up too soon) causing... you guessed it, a lack of command of the location.

 

So in short... will he pull out of it?   Most likely, his track record indicates he will stabilize at some point.   When?   That is the million dollar question, and is really between him and God, so here's hoping that he buckles down sooner rather than later.   While it is disheartening to see him struggle, I will continue to hold faith.   And in end that it is not enough, baseball is a cruel and fickle mistress and next man up.

[nater79a]

Anybody else have that sinking feeling that Dozier getting caught in that delayed steal was going to bite us in the butt? Right before Rosie's first HR.  Then when Rosie hit his 2nd in the 9th inning to pull within one.   Uff da,,,good thing they kept the rally going!

[VATwinsFan]

I always go to sleep with a sense of dread during West Coast trips but find myself waking up happy more often than not after seeing the game results.

 

 

Edited May 12, 2018 by VATwinsFan

[Shaitan]

Both catchers with big at bats? Gardy would definitely start 'em both today. 

[slash129]

 

If Twins really want to win, they put Lynn in the BP and call up Gonsalves.  Unless the FO just does not want to admit an error we have to look at performance and Lynn does not have it.   7.34 ERA, -0.5 WAR - it is now seven games and that is a good sample for a pitcher.  25 BB - 36 K.   

 

It is time we see if we have a better pitcher in AAA.  

 

Buxton and his 4 Ks in two games is not struggling, he is flailing.  He is lost at the plate and so we lose his defense in the ninth.  That is not good, especially since we have not called up a good defensive OF for the bench. 

 

Lol ... Apparently, you didn't see Gonsalves' line last time out.  It made Lynn look like a relative All-Star.

 

What's going to happen when Gonsalves does get called up and has a couple bad outings in a row?  Will you give him a longer leash than Buxton's two games back without a rehab gig? Or, will you start entreating the FO to call up Clark Beeker and kick Gonsalves to the curb?

[gocgo]

I ended up watching the game while I was working.  Had it on first in the background and then got hooked.  I'll say this.  Molly gets criticized a lot for his lineups and decisions, but he coached a great game last night.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Anybody else have that sinking feeling that Dozier getting caught in that delayed steal was going to bite us in the butt? Right before Rosie's first HR. Then when Rosie hit his 2nd in the 9th inning to pull within one. Uff da,,,good thing they kept the rally going!

I liked the attempted steal. It was a breaking ball in the dirt. Dozier saw it going into the dirt and challenged the catcher. It took a good throw to beat him.

 

That’s a risk I want to see a baserunner take every time, it just didn’t work out.

[h2oface]

 

I’m optimistic the fielding will improve behind him to reduce the BABIP and the HR/9 will normalize a bit. At least he’d be a solid number 5 rather than a weak number 5...

 

I think the Twins are currently 10th or 11th out of 15 American League clubs in fielding right now.... surely something that was not expected.