Kepler Staying?

Twins have room to keep him so not a huge deal other than the money at this point.  I agree with others that there is no reason to trade him for a Michael Taylor return if that is all that is out there.  He has more value than than that to his current team.  If his offense returns that value could increase dramatically as well.  Also agree that if he performs at an average level he should bring more back at the deadline than right now.

If there is room why not just wait unless blown away by an offer?

Oh, the humanity! Looks like the classic thing a team would say when they would like to trade a guy and can't get enough value on the market. "We like him and adds value to us". My bet is that they tried to trade him, couldn't get much for him, and have decided to wait and see if the market comes to them through an injury or another team striking out in free agency. We didn't sign Gallo to have him play LF or 1B and then sign Taylor to be the backup CF all so we could put Kirilloff, Gordon and/or Larnach on the bench. We signed them because we thought we cold trade Kepler for MLB value. It looks like we can't get that value so far, so plan B is to use him as part of an OF/1B group and as a backstop in case Kirilloff can't go.   

The real issue if he stays is whether we play him at the expense of a Larncah, Gordon and/or Kirilloff. We know what Max is - very meh. Are those three better? Gordon was last year by a pretty wide margin, but that's one year. Who knows on Larnach or Kirilloff? One thing we do know is that we won't know on any of those 3 if they don't get to play. And if Kepler stays and Rocco plays him everyday like he has in the past at least 1 or 2 of them won't get to play much. 

That's my response to those of you who say "we have room, why not keep him",  This isn't a cost free decision, there is a real opportunity cost to keeping Kepler on the roster and using thim the way Rocco has in the past. Doing that moves back the development of Larnach and Gordon for yet another year. To me, that's potentially problematic because this team wasn't good enough last year to contend and one of the  big problems was the offense, We have to get better and getting someone better than Kepler to play every day in the outfield is an obvious way for us to get better offensive production. We lose that opportunity if we keep him. I'm not saying just give him away, but we should seriously be trying to trade him. My prediction is we do we eventually do so.

Mike, I agree with your thinking but I just have no confidence things will work out that way. Based on what we've seen in the past, I think that Rocco will start and play Kepler every day if he is not injured even if he continues to hit around .225 with only occasional power. I would be fine with the idea of a truly open competition between Kepler, Larnach, and Gordon for that 3rd outfield starting spot after Buxton/Taylor and Gallo (assuming Kirilloff plays 1B). I just don't think that's what will happen. While there should be a built-in bias towards playing Gordon in LF since he was the most productive of that group last season, I think Rocco's built-in bias will be to play Kepler unless he fails in a big way. That leaves that both Larnach and Gordon fighting for occasional outfield fill in and DH at bats because Michael Taylor is going to play CF when Buxton is the DH or doesn't play. That's just no way to develop younger players. That also leaves us with a good field, poor hit corner outfielder on a team that needs help offensively. Are Gordon or Larnach necessarily going to provide more than Kepler's .225 with occasional power? We won't know that unless they get a chance to play (although Gordon was a lot better than that last year). Yes, Kepler is better with the glove but now that we have Gallo  so we have a strong defensive RF. What we need is a bat for the LF spot.

Frankly, if we decide to keep Kepler there probably isn't any room for Larnach on the roster in a role that makes sense. It makes no sense to keep him or Gordon as the 26th man getting 10 – 15 plate appearances a week. That one remaining spot should go to someone who is either is a glove 1st utility infielder like Willie Castro or a RH hitting outfielder who excels against LH pitching. Gordon has no options so he'll make the team. Injuries can obviously change everything but as it stands now I think Larnach is a likely odd man out and is probably better served by either going to AAA and waiting for a injury based chance or being traded to another organization. And to be fair, the former may in fact be the revised plan now that Kepler didn't get us much on the trade market: play Kepler in the hope that he either markedly improves with the shift ban and/or becomes tradable at midseason and play Larnach every day at AAA while he waits for his chance. It's not the plan I would use but I do understand that kind of plan.

2 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Mike, I agree with your thinking but I just have no confidence things will work out that way. Based on what we've seen in the past, I think that Rocco will start and play Kepler every day if he is not injured even if he continues to hit around .225 with only occasional power. I would be fine with the idea of a truly open competition between Kepler, Larnach, and Gordon for that 3rd outfield starting spot after Buxton/Taylor and Gallo (assuming Kirilloff plays 1B). I just don't think that's what will happen. While there should be a built-in bias towards playing Gordon in LF since he was the most productive of that group last season, I think Rocco's built-in bias will be to play Kepler unless he fails in a big way. That leaves that both Larnach and Gordon fighting for occasional outfield fill in and DH at bats because Michael Taylor is going to play CF when Buxton is the DH or doesn't play. That's just no way to develop younger players. That also leaves us with a good field, poor hit corner outfielder on a team that needs help offensively. Are Gordon or Larnach necessarily going to provide more than Kepler's .225 with occasional power? We won't know that unless they get a chance to play (although Gordon was a lot better than that last year). Yes, Kepler is better with the glove but now that we have Gallo  so we have a strong defensive RF. What we need is a bat for the LF spot.

Frankly, if we decide to keep Kepler there probably isn't any room for Larnach on the roster in a role that makes sense. It makes no sense to keep him or Gordon as the 26th man getting 10 – 15 plate appearances a week. That one remaining spot should go to someone who is either is a glove 1st utility infielder like Willie Castro or a RH hitting outfielder who excels against LH pitching. Gordon has no options so he'll make the team. Injuries can obviously change everything but as it stands now I think Larnach is a likely odd man out and is probably better served by either going to AAA and waiting for a injury based chance or being traded to another organization. And to be fair, the former may in fact be the revised plan now that Kepler didn't get us much on the trade market: play Kepler in the hope that he either markedly improves with the shift ban and/or becomes tradable at midseason and play Larnach every day at AAA while he waits for his chance. It's not the plan I would use but I do understand that kind of plan.

I don't necessarily disagree but I think Mike is right.  Since no other team wanted to make it worth their while the Twins need to make sure Kirilloff is truly healthy.  That Larnach is the same Larnach after coming back from injury.  If Gallo doesn't rebound they have another player to use in right.

Still lot's of things can happen between now and the start of the season.  Guys go down in Spring training all the time.  Kepler might look really good this spring and some other team might feel they really, really need a player like that.  The Twins traded Rogers just before the season the same could happen with Kepler if the Twins decide Kirilloff, and Larnach look ready to go.

In your worst case scenario if Kepler doesn't turn things around, then around June, Larnach or someone else will replace him anyway.  At that point once his projection is a known quantity they can try and trade him for a bucket of balls or bench him.

I think there is still time for the Twins to get a deal done before the season starts but a team would need to be willing to pay the price the Twins feel he should be valued at.  If not I think they are doing the prudent thing especially given what happened last year.  Roll with the extra depth and see how things shake out.  It is likely 3 months of development time lost max.