Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan are Intertwined for the 2027 Twins

[Cody Christie]

The Minnesota Twins have several important decisions to make this offseason, and their starting rotation will be near the top of the list. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are both approaching free agency after the 2027 season, making them potential trade candidates as the organization considers its long-term direction.

Ryan is the more obvious trade candidate. He has established himself as a frontline starter, and contending teams have pursued him in the past. Ober's future is less certain after two consecutive disappointing seasons and a significant decline in velocity. Some fans will argue the Twins should move on from the right-hander before his performance declines further.

However, these decisions are connected. If the Twins trade Ryan, they should be much more inclined to keep Ober. Minnesota cannot afford to remove multiple established starters from its rotation without creating additional questions about its pitching depth.

Starting Pitching Depth Is Never Enough

The Twins entered 2026 with plenty of starting pitching options. That depth quickly became a necessity rather than a luxury. Pablo López suffered a season-ending elbow injury during spring training, while David Festa experienced a shoulder setback that delayed his availability. Mick Abel also landed on the injured list with elbow inflammation early in the season. Those injuries tested Minnesota's rotation before the team could establish any consistency.

The club eventually added arms and shuffled its options to get through the season. Even with a sizable group of starters, injuries and performance issues made the rotation a constant work in progress.

Minnesota should remember those lessons when evaluating its 2027 roster. López is expected to return, and the organization has several younger options who could earn rotation spots. Taj Bradley, Zebby Matthews, Connor Prielipp and Abel give the Twins reasons to feel optimistic about their pitching future.

Still, young pitchers come with uncertainty. Some will take important steps forward, while others might need additional development time or experience setbacks of their own. Counting on every potential starter to remain healthy and productive is not a realistic roster-building strategy.

If the Twins trade Ryan, keeping Ober would provide another experienced option who knows how to navigate a major league rotation. Removing both veterans could leave Minnesota relying heavily on young pitchers and internal improvement.

Bailey Ober's Declining Velocity Raises Questions

Ober's recent performance has created legitimate questions about his future in Minnesota. After posting a 5.10 ERA in 2025, he finished the 2026 season with a 4.47 ERA across 131 innings. He posted a 17.1 K%, a concerning decline (down 26.9% in 2024) for a pitcher who previously demonstrated an ability to miss bats.

The most significant concern is his fastball velocity. Ober averaged approximately 88 mph with his fastball in 2026, a substantial drop from the 91.7 mph he averaged in 2024. His command and ability to change speeds have helped him succeed throughout his career, but there is less room for mistakes when hitters can attack his fastball.

Ober is projected to earn $6.9 million in arbitration for 2027. That is a considerable commitment for a pitcher coming off a season with diminished results, particularly for a team trying to allocate resources toward several roster needs.

However, the situation is not quite as simple as looking at his ERA and velocity. FanGraphs' dollar valuation placed Ober's 2026 contribution at approximately $10.2 million. That suggests he still provided value beyond his salary, even if his performance fell short of expectations.

The Twins must decide whether Ober can regain enough velocity and effectiveness to justify another season. They also need to consider what it would cost to replace his innings. Non-tendering or trading him might create an opening for a younger arm, but it would also remove an experienced starter from the depth chart.

Joe Ryan Remains a Valuable Trade Chip

Ryan has spent multiple seasons appearing in trade rumors, and the speculation is unlikely to disappear this winter. Contending teams pursued him before the 2025 trade deadline, with the Boston Red Sox among the clubs reportedly involved in discussions. Minnesota ultimately kept him, but his approaching free agency creates another opportunity to consider a deal.

His 2026 campaign was a tale of two halves. Ryan made his second consecutive All-Star team after posting a 2.86 ERA with 128 strikeouts across 110 1/3 innings before the All-Star break. He looked like the kind of frontline starter who could attract a substantial return from a team pursuing a championship.

The second half was far more difficult. Ryan struggled after the break, allowed six home runs in a July outing against Cleveland, and subsequently landed on the injured list with a left glute strain. He finished the season with a 3.79 ERA, 159 strikeouts and 144 2/3 innings across 27 starts. Those numbers still make Ryan an attractive trade candidate. He has demonstrated that he can perform at an All-Star level, and teams seeking reliable postseason rotation help will have reasons to inquire about his availability.

Ryan is projected to earn $9.6 million for 2027, adding another layer to Minnesota's decision. The Twins could retain him for one more season and attempt to compete, or they could explore whether another organization would offer the kind of return that improves their long-term outlook.

Trading Ryan would not automatically mean Minnesota is giving up on 2027. A strong return could address other roster weaknesses and provide players who contribute immediately. But the Twins would need to account for the innings and production they would be losing.

The Twins Need to Consider Both Decisions Together

The Twins should evaluate their starting rotation as a complete unit rather than treating each veteran's future as an independent decision. Ober might be the easier player to move on from based on his declining velocity and recent performance. Ryan, meanwhile, could generate a stronger trade return because of his higher ceiling and established track record. But the consequences of trading either pitcher change depending on what Minnesota does with the other.

If the Twins trade Ryan, retaining Ober becomes much more appealing. Minnesota would already be losing an All-Star-caliber starter, and creating another opening would place additional pressure on its younger options. Ober's experience and potential to rebound could be particularly valuable in that situation.

If Ryan remains in Minnesota, the Twins could have more flexibility to explore an Ober trade or non-tendering him. Even then, they should be careful not to underestimate the value of having several capable starting pitchers available.

The Twins have an opportunity to reshape their roster this winter, but they should not confuse trading from a position of strength with weakening that strength too much. Ryan and Ober are intertwined because the outcome of one decision will influence the other. If Minnesota decides its best path forward involves trading Ryan, Ober might be exactly the kind of veteran starter the organization needs to keep.

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Do you believe Ryan and Ober are intertwined this winter? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

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[old nurse]

The decision on Ober will be about is he good enough or not. If the answer is no, he is gone. That will have nothing to do with Ryan, Ryan is about what a team would give up to get him. Ober has nothing to do with that

[Jeff K]

4 minutes ago, old nurse said:

The decision on Ober will be about is he good enough or not. If the answer is no, he is gone. That will have nothing to do with Ryan, Ryan is about what a team would give up to get him. Ober has nothing to do with that

I would trade Ober for whatever they can get unless it's just terrible.  I would trade Ryan assuming they get good value for him.  I would not have a problem with the Twins moving on from both given the free agency challenge facing them after 2027.

[Riverbrian]

The front office will need to rely on their starting pitching in 2027 if they are going to come through on the promises made by Tom Pohlad.

They will also need to mitigate the upcoming loss of 4 starters after 2027 while being competitive in 2027.  

They need to lessen the amount of starters you lose from 4 to 2. However, they have to competitively bid for a decent replacement in the free agent market to at least improve the rotation despite the loss of two. 

Don't shop in the Dylan Bundy aisle. Get a legit guy to a multi year contract that you can add to Ryan, Lopez and Bradley in 2027. And is also a guy that you can add to Bradley in 2028. 

You spend some money here. At this point... you might as well hang on to Joe Ryan. His trade value is gone. Trading him now... would be... just cementing the stupidity. Might as well take a run serious run at this thing one more time.

But this time... I hope they are actually serious since we have a serious Tom Pohlad talking about championships. 

[rdehring]

Both will likely be available, at least should be.  Whether they are here or gone will depend on what they can get in return.  Although not necessary to do in November, need to extend Lopez by early next season.  Makes sense to wait until he is on the field in spring/summer training to see how his recovery is going.

Agree with above comments that starting pitching will determine whether or not the Twins are playoff contenders in 2027.  That's assuming there is a 2027?  

[bean5302]

Its like saying Shohei Ohtani and Brusdar Graterol are intertwined for the Dodgers.

Ober and Kremer are intertwined. Ryan is a different story and he's not worth nearly as much as fans around here seem to think he is.

I think the Twins could get maybe a little something for Ober, but this front office has proven time and again they can't help themselves when it comes to sign and trade. They keep everybody for some reason. So I'd advocate non-tendering Ober. If the Twins keep him, compare Ober to Kremer in spring training and trade the weaker looking of the two. 

This front office mess, though, we'll be keeping all three and standing pat.

[SarasotaBill]

Trade Ober for a relief pitcher. Ober has value for a team that needs starting pitching depth especially a 5th starter. Twins need every dollar to spend on relief pitching upgrades and a 1B/2B upgrade.

[Andy MacPhail]

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

Both will likely be available, at least should be.  Whether they are here or gone will depend on what they can get in return.  Although not necessary to do in November, need to extend Lopez by early next season.  Makes sense to wait until he is on the field in spring/summer training to see how his recovery is going.

Agree with above comments that starting pitching will determine whether or not the Twins are playoff contenders in 2027.  That's assuming there is a 2027?  

Transactions are a gamble. Twins have been between a rock & hard place. Like last year, Twins need to field a winner to draw back fans. My stance is the same; I'd gamble in trading away regular players who should be traded for young players who can impact the team now (not maybe 4yrs. from now) in a way that we still compete now & in the future. 

So, I'm for trading away both Ryan & Ober in the offseason or at the deadline if can come up with good trades, even if we are competing. We'd need to obtain promising young MLB-ready SPs to compensate for their loss. IMO, Lopez will come back & will be open to sign a very reasonable extension. I'd pursue that. 

Ryan & Ober's careers have been intertwined from the beginning.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The difference between the pitchers is too extreme for them to be intertwined.  The decision on Ober is rooted in his diminished arsenal and his likelihood of success (or not) in 2027.  He’s a smart pitcher, but the skills just aren’t there for continued success.  The Twins need to trade him for whatever they can get, even if it is very little, and re-purpose his salary into the rest of the team for next year.  If you can’t make that happen, it’s time to DFA Ober.  Keeping him does nothing for the team’s ability to trade Ryan — he simply can’t replace him.  

Ryan, on the other hand, has value — probably less than we would like him to have, but he’s a good solid starting pitcher who is likely an integral part of the staff.  Trading Ryan means that you have faith that Lopez will return to form, that Kremer will be at least as good as Ober (and he was better at the end of 2026), and that the younger guys will continue to progress. Make the decision on Ryan based on return (both now and at the deadline) and the rest of the rotation, but Ober shouldn’t really be a factor in projecting the rotation for 2027.

[GNess]

Given the apparent lack of near ready SP in the minors the Twins depth such that it is might be over estimated. Moving Ryan and/or Ober and/or even Kremer hopefully is part of a deal that brings back at least one near ready young SP. 

[djvang]

You can never have enough starting pitching because there WILL be injuries. Same in football with QBs. Which is why I strongly opposed trading JJ McCarthy.

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

The front office will need to rely on their starting pitching in 2027 if they are going to come through on the promises made by Tom Pohlad.

They will also need to mitigate the upcoming loss of 4 starters after 2027 while being competitive in 2027.  

They need to lessen the amount of starters you lose from 4 to 2. However, they have to competitively bid for a decent replacement in the free agent market to at least improve the rotation despite the loss of two. 

Don't shop in the Dylan Bundy aisle. Get a legit guy to a multi year contract that you can add to Ryan, Lopez and Bradley in 2027. And is also a guy that you can add to Bradley in 2028. 

You spend some money here. At this point... you might as well hang on to Joe Ryan. His trade value is gone. Trading him now... would be... just cementing the stupidity. Might as well take a run serious run at this thing one more time.

But this time... I hope they are actually serious since we have a serious Tom Pohlad talking about championships. 

I did not see a team ready to "make a serious run at this thing".  Not unless they are willing to add $75m to the payroll and I don't see that happening.  I am hoping they quit playing for this year and start managing their assets with building a contender in mind.  Had they done this in the past, we would have Tolle and others for the next several years.  That would be better today and have stability in their rotation for the next several years.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I did not see a team ready to "make a serious run at this thing".  Not unless they are willing to add $75m to the payroll and I don't see that happening.  I am hoping they quit playing for this year and start managing their assets with building a contender in mind.  Had they done this in the past, we would have Tolle and others for the next several years.  That would be better today and have stability in their rotation for the next several years.

The team has been one of the worst in baseball for two years, and people think it is a player or two from contending? I mean, it COULD be, if Jenkins, Lee, Culpepper and Keaschell are the real deal and Buxton is healthy. 

In any event, Tommy boy thinks he can trick a few hundred thousand ticket sales by "investing in the team", so I don't see them trading Ryan at this point. 

[MeleMouth]

Isn't everybody intertwined?

As others have mentioned, if they trade one starter, then the need for another grows, but that could be Ryan and Ober, Ober and Kremer, or Ryan and Kremer. 

But even beyond that, their fates depend on other players. A reliever, such as Morris or Rojas, could make become a good starter and make more of that group of starters less necessary. Or Lopez, whom everyone seems to be counting on, could struggle in returning, which could make each of them more necessary.

Free agents could change the picture, also. Last year, the Twins supposedly made a big effort to get Framber Valdez. A free agent signing this year could make either or both of Ryan and Ober much less necessary.

Trades could also change the picture. If, for example, Ryan is traded to a west coast team for a young starter, Ryan would be gone and Ober could also become less needed. A trade of a non-pitcher for a pitcher could also affect their statuses. A few years ago, trading Arraez for Lopez shook up the roster. A similar trade this winter, such as Keaschall for Logan Webb, would affect both Ryan and Ober and possibly others.

Saying Ryan and Ober are intertwined is a narrow, false binary.

[MeleMouth]

16 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I am hoping they quit playing for this year and start managing their assets with building a contender in mind.  Had they done this in the past, we would have Tolle and others for the next several years.  That would be better today and have stability in their rotation for the next several years.

Keep this comment ready for next year, with perhaps just a name change. Every year, they play for this year and end the year no closer to sustainable success.

[Riverbrian]

42 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I did not see a team ready to "make a serious run at this thing".  Not unless they are willing to add $75m to the payroll and I don't see that happening.  I am hoping they quit playing for this year and start managing their assets with building a contender in mind.  Had they done this in the past, we would have Tolle and others for the next several years.  That would be better today and have stability in their rotation for the next several years.

Based on the words from Tom Pohlad. They are going to go for it. 

Myself... I can see the need to acquire additional assets and delaying a run as you suggest but... 

I can see a path but only if they do what I want them to do. LOL

In my opinion of course.

Last off-season was different then this off-season for three reasons.

1. The bullpen needed a complete rebuild from the ground up. A bullpen can't be rebuilt from this extreme in a single off-season. It needed to built the way they did it. Through frantic audition and finding arms like Gomez and Morris and Nance.  

2. They didn't have enough position player talent especially in the infield. It is just plain irresponsible to go with a somewhat injury prone and struggling Lee at SS, A very injury prone and struggling Lewis at 3B and a sophomore slump candidate at Keaschall at 2B and Clemens platooning at 1B and go for it... especially in consideration of point #1. They needed a 1B at the very least and they also needed infield insurance especially at SS and 3B. They made no attempt at fixing this and the entire infield needed to be restructured to the point that nobody was standing in the original spot they were being counted on at. 

3. In consideration of point #1 and #2. Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers were at peak value and needed to be cashed in at this time. Going for it was a very very very questionable decision. 

Was I right... Yes and no. The offense in total surprised me. It did better than I thought it would but the infield was exactly what I was concerned about at every single position. The starting pitching surprised me because it didn't do as well as I thought it would even if they would have traded Joe Ryan. The bullpen performed exactly how I thought it would. The team was healthier than normal but injuries are always a moment away. 

So what's different this year. I can see a path. There is enough depth and by depth I mean talent in house with the influx of young ready or not talented players. We have optoins, we have players in place to replace. We just need to add a little more to that depth and it's in the same spots that we needed to address last year. 1B and infielder with SS capability. The comments ny Tom Pohlad about the roster not being good enough for 162 games has me heartened that maybe the front office learned from rather stunning mistakes last year and will therefore take it more seriously this time. 

1. The Bullpen still isn't there yet but it made progress so it won't be a ground zero start up like last year. A couple of decent trades and a couple of unexpected finds and the bullpen could be at least average if not more. 

2. We have 7 outfielders in place that have talent. We can easily staff 5 outfielders with talent we really don't have to do a thing other than don't platoon Jenkins or Emma. The infield still has the same needs as last year. If they could sign a Bauers to play 1B and trade for someone like Casey Schmitt... we could be 6 deep and have cover for any injuries or Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner type failures in 2027. And once again... I like the depth of the starting staff but I'd like them to add one more. I don't care about catcher. It's Caratini and someone else bat them ninth. I do not want a DH unless it's a monster. Josh Bell types are decent but not a monster. Use the DH to supply AB's to the depth that I am asking for.  

3. Joe Ryan is no longer at peak value. He still has some value but getting a couple of decent prospects from him isn't happening anymore so you might as well keep him. Ryan Jeffers is gone but with the kids... we might be able to trade Ober, Kremer and Larnach along with other minor league players to acquire a Casey Schmitt and add to the bullpen with some younger arms with talent. 

Anyway... I can see a path.

I will agree with you 100% if they are just going to Nathanial Lowe or Randal Grichuk the off-season away. If that's the case... just sell everything not nailed down let's look at 2028. 

 

[nicksaviking]

19 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The team has been one of the worst in baseball for two years, and people think it is a player or two from contending? I mean, it COULD be, if Jenkins, Lee, Culpepper and Keaschell are the real deal and Buxton is healthy. 

In any event, Tommy boy thinks he can trick a few hundred thousand ticket sales by "investing in the team", so I don't see them trading Ryan at this point. 

I know I'm kind of on an island, but to me this team does look primed to take a big step forward if they just let go of the notion that losing fringe players is going to kill their depth/leadership/flexibility. 

1388. That's the number of plate appearances this team gave to Kreidler, Martin, Caratini, Gray, Jackson, Outman and Arcia. All because this front office was worried about losing players most other teams wouldn't have interest in other than a deep bench stash. Add in Lewis and Wallner who did have options, but the team was desperate to give 27-year-olds extra leash, and that number goes to 2032. That's an irresponsible number of wasted plate appearances. Fans aren't watching? Really? When you give 1/3rd of your team's at bats to guys who should be on the waiver wire? Hard to fathom why. And they never needed to roster most of them. They had other, cheaper though inexperienced options that couldn't have been worse if they tried, but had the potential to be better.

If they want to fill a hole or two with actual top end free agents, great. But to me this 100% looks like a opportunity and a situation where it's legitimately addition by subtraction. These roles should go to the cheap, OPTIONABLE in house players. Add a few good players to the top of the roster, pushing the fringe players down or off all together, and I think this team dramatically improves.

[Cris E]

1 hour ago, GNess said:

Given the apparent lack of near ready SP in the minors the Twins depth such that it is might be over estimated. Moving Ryan and/or Ober and/or even Kremer hopefully is part of a deal that brings back at least one near ready young SP. 

You want to dump three of your healthy 2026 starters to avoid not having enough starters on hand for 2028.  Say that out loud and think about how it sounds. 

Now what would that look like exactly? Be specific: names, estimated value required to get and arrival times on the MLB roster, etc. I think it's far more difficult than you realize.  Really go do this now.

Because now I want you to take that list (you didn't make the list, did you?) and compare it to the young pitchers who appeared for the Twins in the past two years: Prielipp, Abel, Mathews, Morris, Adams, Festa, Rojas, Raya, and Quick and Gallagher are at AAA waiting to come in after them.  Who were you going to pick up that's got a better pedigree than Abel? What young starter are you going to acquire that did better than Mathews' 10 home starts (2.57 ERA, only a hotel routine away from Cy Young votes. )  They just went and got a few of these guys last year, so where's the development and patience to build them up? C'mon, posts like this are just noise and really can't work once you start thinking about them. 

 

[Mike Sixel]

5 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I know I'm kind of on an island, but to me this team does look primed to take a big step forward if they just let go of the notion that losing fringe players is going to kill their depth/leadership/flexibility. 

1388. That's the number of plate appearances this team gave to Kreidler, Martin, Caratini, Gray, Jackson, Outman and Arcia. All because this front office was worried about losing players most other teams wouldn't have interest in other than a deep bench stash. Add in Lewis and Wallner who did have options, but the team was desperate to give 27-year-olds extra leash, and that number goes to 2032. That's an irresponsible number of wasted plate appearances. Fans aren't watching? Really? When you give 1/3rd of your team's at bats to guys who should be on the waiver wire? Hard to fathom why. And they never needed to roster most of them. They had other, cheaper though inexperienced options that couldn't have been worse if they tried, but had the potential to be better.

If they want to fill a hole or two with actual top end free agents, great. But to me this 100% looks like a opportunity and a situation where it's legitimately addition by subtraction. These roles should go to the cheap, OPTIONABLE in house players. Add a few good players to the top of the roster, pushing the fringe players down or off all together, and I think this team dramatically improves.

Fair..... Like I said, if they just trust the youth and let them play, I see a chance. Do we really think they'll do that?

[Riverbrian]

3 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I know I'm kind of on an island, but to me this team does look primed to take a big step forward if they just let go of the notion that losing fringe players is going to kill their depth/leadership/flexibility. 

1388. That's the number of plate appearances this team gave to Kreidler, Martin, Caratini, Gray, Jackson, Outman and Arcia. All because this front office was worried about losing players most other teams wouldn't have interest in other than a deep bench stash. Add in Lewis and Wallner who did have options, but the team was desperate to give 27-year-olds extra leash, and that number goes to 2032. That's an irresponsible number of wasted plate appearances. Fans aren't watching? Really? When you give 1/3rd of your team's at bats to guys who should be on the waiver wire? Hard to fathom why. And they never needed to roster most of them. They had other, cheaper though inexperienced options that couldn't have been worse if they tried, but had the potential to be better.

If they want to fill a hole or two with actual top end free agents, great. But to me this 100% looks like a opportunity and a situation where it's legitimately addition by subtraction. These roles should go to the cheap, OPTIONABLE in house players. Add a few good players to the top of the roster, pushing the fringe players down or off all together, and I think this team dramatically improves.

Great Post

It's time to trade Larnach, Ober and Kremer. All of them should have some value. The money they save around 18 million can be added to the money that Tom Pohlad is implying he will spend to improve this club and if they are able to be aggressive enough to land a couple of legitimate free agents instead of the painfully average ones they typically sign. And if they don't kill their youth and let that youth become the same youth that fed the Red Sox, White Sox, Gaurdians, Brewers, Nationals, and if they don't waste roster spots on role players like Martin or Gray or Kriedler.

They could take a serious run at this.  

[Cris E]

Just to echo what everyone is saying, Ryan can still pitch and pitch well. Ober is treading the fine line between bad starter and old swingman. That can be valuable to a team with a massive IR list, but we have a different problem right now and that's sorting through the ready and near-ready arms we have on hand. The last thing we need to do is waste innings on an insurance policy that soaks up valuable opportunities to develop our future.

Ober can maybe pull a Dobnak and sit with German in St Paul, but I really don't want to see him on the mound at Target Field again.

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fair..... Like I said, if they just trust the youth and let them play, I see a chance. Do we really think they'll do that?

I don't but I'm going to keep typing on this website in hope that they do. 

[LastOnePicked]

6 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I know I'm kind of on an island, but to me this team does look primed to take a big step forward if they just let go of the notion that losing fringe players is going to kill their depth/leadership/flexibility. 

 

It sounds like a nice island, at least.

I don't agree - I think this team is headed for massive disappointments in 2027. But I do agree with the second part. They don't have the personnel in place to accurately evaluate who they have, or even who they could get for who they have. That's why the Zoll FO is paralyzed. Look at what they did with the roster last year during the stretch run. The Jackson situation alone should have gotten the entire FO staff fired.

[MeleMouth]

18 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

1388. That's the number of plate appearances this team gave to Kreidler, Martin, Caratini, Gray, Jackson, Outman and Arcia. All because this front office was worried about losing players most other teams wouldn't have interest in other than a deep bench stash. Add in Lewis and Wallner who did have options, but the team was desperate to give 27-year-olds extra leash, and that number goes to 2032. That's an irresponsible number of wasted plate appearances. Fans aren't watching? Really? When you give 1/3rd of your team's at bats to guys who should be on the waiver wire? Hard to fathom why. And they never needed to roster most of them. They had other, cheaper though inexperienced options that couldn't have been worse if they tried, but had the potential to be better.

Your numbers are right, but there are three problems with the reasoning.

First, they might have given 1388 or 2032 PAs to these guys because they had no other options. They had nobody else to play SS (Gray, Kreidler, Arcia) or C (Caratini, Jackson) or OF for platoons or injuries (Martin, Kreidler) and a large part of the plan to compete was based on expectations for Wallner and Lewis.

Second, those core issues - having no alternatives, needing a catcher, injuries and platoons, or disappointments from players expected to contribute to success - are currently flashing orange as warning signs for 2027. 

Third, there is not one player on the current roster who has demonstrated the ability to sustain high-end talent over the course of the season. All teams cycle through weak or underperforming hitters for some reason or another, which you can't just hand-wave away, but the good ones overcome it by having at least three or four reliable high-end talents regularly in their lineups. The Twins don't have that.

[nicksaviking]

25 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fair..... Like I said, if they just trust the youth and let them play, I see a chance. Do we really think they'll do that?

I think it's more likely this year than ever before. Partly because they already broke the seal on Jenkins, Culpepper and Rodriguez and partly because if Tom Pohlad does want to spend 50M (or even just 30M), there won't be room on the roster for the Tristan Grays and James Outmans of the world.

[nicksaviking]

26 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Great Post

It's time to trade Larnach, Ober and Kremer. All of them should have some value. The money they save around 18 million can be added to the money that Tom Pohlad is implying he will spend to improve this club and if they are able to be aggressive enough to land a couple of legitimate free agents instead of the painfully average ones they typically sign. And if they don't kill their youth and let that youth become the same youth that fed the Red Sox, White Sox, Gaurdians, Brewers, Nationals, and if they don't waste roster spots on role players like Martin or Gray or Kriedler.

They could take a serious run at this.  

I would like to add a footnote to this. Any veterans like this they trade (and I agree, they should trade them) should only be replaced by a free agent BETTER than them. Give their roster spots to young, controllable in house options? Sure, that works. Give their roster spots to Adam Frazier, Michael Lorenzen and Patrick Sandoval? Hell no. Stop doing that.

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I would like to add a footnote to this. Any veterans like this they trade (and I agree, they should trade them) should only be replaced by a free agent BETTER than them. Give their roster spots to young, controllable in house options? Sure, that works. Give their roster spots to Adam Frazier, Michael Lorenzen and Patrick Sandoval? Hell no. Stop doing that.

That's a perfect footnote. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

San Diego just lost another  starter to free agency. The Padres are desperate for starters for 2027. Maybe the Twins could trade Ryan for 19 year old Kruz Schoolcraft, a 6'8" lefthander flame thrower, who is the Padres #2 prospect and #88 overall, plus 24 year old  #7 Padre prospect Tucker Musgrove , a 24 year old with a 70 rated fastball who missed time with an arm injury.  Musgrave pitched in AA last year and is projected to make the Padres major league team this year. He may become a valuable relief pitcher. for the Twins. Or maybe Ty France could be had to play 1B again for the Twinkies.

[nicksaviking]

43 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

Your numbers are right, but there are three problems with the reasoning.

First, they might have given 1388 or 2032 PAs to these guys because they had no other options. They had nobody else to play SS (Gray, Kreidler, Arcia) or C (Caratini, Jackson) or OF for platoons or injuries (Martin, Kreidler) and a large part of the plan to compete was based on expectations for Wallner and Lewis.

Second, those core issues - having no alternatives, needing a catcher, injuries and platoons, or disappointments from players expected to contribute to success - are currently flashing orange as warning signs for 2027. 

Third, there is not one player on the current roster who has demonstrated the ability to sustain high-end talent over the course of the season. All teams cycle through weak or underperforming hitters for some reason or another, which you can't just hand-wave away, but the good ones overcome it by having at least three or four reliable high-end talents regularly in their lineups. The Twins don't have that.

They DID have options. Culpepper, Rodriguez and Jenkins all were playing for the Saints in March. They got injured playing minor league ball, but they could have made the team out of spring training. Might have they stunk? Yes, just like the vets that got their jobs. But at least they could have been optioned. Or not, because nobody cared; it was a season that nobody watched.

As to the catcher, while I put Jackson on the wasted-plate-appearance list, really, why did they need to spend money on Caratini when they had Jackson who was playing on a cheap MiLB deal? Caratini was low ceiling move for a backup catcher who wasn't good on defense. Utter mis-use of a roster spot.

As for the high-end talent, the Twins do have to identify some for sure. But that's where finding ONE top end free agent, and getting just ONE of the prospects to become a star will fix the issue. Both the Brewers and Rays basically just had two star hitters. The bats of Jeffers, Keaschall, Lee, Larnach, Buxton, Bell and Clemens produced just as well if not better than 90% of the rest of the Milwaukee and Tampa lineups. 

[tony&rodney]

28 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

San Diego just lost another  starter to free agency. The Padres are desperate for starters for 2027. Maybe the Twins could trade Ryan for 19 year old Kruz Schoolcraft, a 6'8" lefthander flame thrower, who is the Padres #2 prospect and #88 overall, plus 24 year old  #7 Padre prospect Tucker Musgrove , a 24 year old with a 70 rated fastball who missed time with an arm injury.  Musgrave pitched in AA last year and is projected to make the Padres major league team this year. He may become a valuable relief pitcher. for the Twins. Or maybe Ty France could be had to play 1B again for the Twinkies.

One of the ideas that made my list as a thought was similar to yours. Ryan for Schoolcraft plus 1. My choice was Bradgley Rodriguez, but I like Tucker Musgrove.

The general idea is that the Twins do need change. Transactions that have a solid chance to improve the roster should be considered. I'm good with trading all of Ryan, Kremer, and Ober for decent returns. I also think each has value to other teams. The returns will not be starting caliber position players but will have real talent.

I'm starting to see a number of people, here and elsewhere, put up 2027 Twins rosters. Alarmingly, the overwhelming majority of guesses contain almost the same players as last season right down to Ober, Kremer, Larnach, and Martin. I'm holding out for change.