Did the Twins Exceed Expectations This Year?

[Apixarfan]

The Twins were actually one game over .500 against the AL East this year and the Tigers were just one game under .500. If the East is a superior division, and we won half our games against them, wouldn’t that just indicate a lot of parity in the Central?

I think if we had kept Varland and spent in free agency last winter we’d probably be in a wildcard spot. Because they didn’t, that’s why I was pessimistic and they about met my moderately low expectations

[Apixarfan]

I see a few people criticized the Twins for not trading Larnach but they are leaving out that the Twins had a trade worked out with HOU before the team owner nixed the deal at the last minute. I wouldn’t be surprised if that basically came too late to work out a fair deal somewhere else.

[JD-TWINS]

Estimating or predicting Wins for a SEASON is silly since there are way too many variables in play …….. i.e. Wallner’s zero to negative contribution - SWR was equally as bad as Wallner from a negative contribution standpoint - Banda/Sands/Lopez/Festa/Abel all missed SIGNIFICANT time …… Ryan MISSED a number of weeks…….. Lee was terrible as a SS, defensively ……. Lewis was mediocre over the entirety of the year …….. Buxton, once again, played less than 100 games.

Culpepper - Jenkins got hurt and weren’t ready to help in August - Rodriguez slid into first base and needed thumb surgery, he too wasn’t ready in August.

Stuff is going to happen to every Team - understood. Going to win some you probably shouldn’t and lose some that were squarely in your grasp. For this Team to Win 76 games, while blowing at least 20 other solid Win Opportunities………it did better than I would have expected. IF most of the things that happened, with injuries or unexpected poor performance from a few, the Team had a real shot at 88-90 Wins. 

[Mike Sixel]

Nope. The only two things that were a lot better than expected were Bradley, and the number of onions Prielipp pitched. But the record was about where predicted. 

[LastOnePicked]

3 hours ago, Peter said:

This was a great season regardless of what everyone thinks!!! One run losses and blown leads were brutal but all in all great season!!! Ryan/ober/larnach/bell and Jeffers won’t be back-Clemens might be gone but that’s ok! We got great prospects ready to step up for twins and future is great!!! Can’t wait for next season as well multiple division titles and another World Series championship!!! Let’s go twins!!!

Man, I wish I could think like this. The Twins don't deserve you, Peter.

I think this was the worst season in recent memory. Certainly there were seasons in the 90s and 2010s that were worse, but I can't get over the future opportunities that were lost. The Twins simply could not pick a plan and see it through. As a result, they're still a middling mix of promising rookies, fading veterans and fizzling post-hype prospects.

Some good moments, yes. But every big win was followed by losses. Every step forward was met with a bigger setback.

There's no benefit in MLB to being a middling team. You're either keeping a contention window open or you're taking your lumps. The Twins came into 2026 betting heavily on the health and success of Lopez, Buxton and Ryan. They're going to go into 2027 with the exact same bet, and the chances of having them all stay healthy and performing at their highest level have literally never been smaller.

[Russ]

No

Same old result.  2025 Trade deadline acquired prospects.  2026 Trade deadline traded prospects.  Result? A team under .500 in a weak division.  Need better decision makers all around.

[LastOnePicked]

2 hours ago, PuckettPond said:

2026 fan attendance was terrible. Twins fans support in the top 3 for worst in MLB. " If you don't go to the game you can't complain" Ghandi. If attending a Twins game was a crime Twins fans would be on death row.

Mr. Pohlad, I realize how badly all these ungrateful working class slobs have hurt you, but certainly you can afford some good therapy. Or at least some fine Scotch. I hate to see you like this.

[JD-TWINS]

Who is back from the position player standpoint? My preference blended with how the FO/organization behaves, usually.

LEWIS - (.164 BA prior to being sent down) had a .271 BA since June 10th ………. 14 HR’s in 124 games ……. 15 stolen bases. With any sort of success and 140+ starts, he can easily be a 20/20 guy, with 25/25 not far above a realistic prognostication.

LEE is at 3B - CULPEPPER is at SS - CLEMENS is at 2B & back up at 1B & corner OF - LEWIS at 1B with some fill in duty at 2B………….. KEASCHALL in LF due to lack of arm - BUXTON is in CF - JENKINS is in RF ……….. Jeffers or someone they trade for will start ……. Larnach at LH platoon DH …….. w/Keaschall & Buxton from the RH side.

E-Rod & Martin are depth OF with Clemens occasionally. Caratini is depth behind the plate.  

1 spot still open …….. seems it’s a depth guy in IF.

Not much changing from the end of ‘26 options. IMO, not many needed.

Pitching must greatly improve!!! Spend $$ on 3 arms not currently in team’s future control. Arms obtained in trade or via Free Agency. CATCHER is the wildcard roster hole that needs to be plugged!

[Jacksson]

The team failed to live up to expectations for 2026.  Reasons=

#1 Injuries to players leading to extended loss of playing time = Abel, Sands, Banda,  Festa, Paredes, Rojas, Acton, Buxton.

#2 Performances below expected levels from = Wallner, Larnach, Buxton, Roden, Martin, Ryan, Adams, Ober, Orze, Rogers.

#3 Poor organizational decision making = A - Keeping Outman on the 26 man roster.  B - Failure to trade Jeffers & acquire MLB ready players. C - Failure to trade Ryan & acquire MLB ready players. D - Taking until mid season to realize that the infield alignment was flawed and making the moves necessary to overhaul that situation which resulted in position changes and necessitating "learning on the fly" at new or relatively unfamiliar positions by players: Lee, Lewis, Keaschall, Clemens.  E - Continuing to believe that Gray was a capable ML Shortstop. F - Delaying the season ending hip surgery on Buxton until the season was shot when it was clear that surgery was the outcome at the time of the All Star Break and depriving players: Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Roden, Mendez of gaining valuable MAJOR LEAGUE outfield experience as well as providing organizational  data on their performance that could be used for player evaluation.  G - Signing Caratini. H - Signing Bell. I - Shortening the 26 man roster by carrying Jackson as a 3rd catcher for two extended periods of time during which he received minimal utilization.

#4 - Having an owner and GM with a deluded opinion of the construction and performance capabilities of the team.

[ewen21]

23 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

 Banda/Sands/Lopez/Festa/Abel all missed SIGNIFICANT time

Banda, Sands, Festa and Abel missing time should be something a good team could absorb easily.  The fact that we fall on that as some kind of setback speaks to the lack of depth we have in pitching.

[HerbieFan]

No Pablo all year...so yes.  I wanted answers out of 2026.  Off the top of my head, we now know that Brooks Lee is a keeper.  Matt Wallner is not.  Luke Keaschall is a big time yes.  Larnach is a not anymore.  We know Kalen Culpepper can play.  We know Royce Lewis is what he's chosen to be the last two seasons.  We know Prielipp should be a rotation staple.  We know Taj is a dude.  We know Jeffers is worth re-signing.  We know they can make Buxton part of the 2027 plan but not a focal point of it...same for Joe Ryan.  We know Zebby can handle a starter's workload but still needs to improve.  It's all about educated guesses going forward and we have a lot more information to make the best educated guesses possible.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, ewen21 said:

Banda, Sands, Festa and Abel missing time should be something a good team could absorb easily.  The fact that we fall on that as some kind of setback speaks to the lack of depth we have in pitching.

No offense but that’s bologna - Festa was a fringe rotation candidate ……. Abel had 2 very solid outings in a row and looked like an effective #4 starter going forward ……… Lopez was at the top of the Rotation. There are maybe 3 teams in the game that can absorb missing 470-520 innings from their rotation…….particularly when 1 guy is supposed to be your best……… Banda pitched to end of June this season and his last 2 of 3 months were solid.

Woods Richardson going 0-7 with an ERA between 7.00-8.00 didn’t help either……..the guy just collapsed.

[Brandon]

It's not that the Twins were better than expected but more that the league was so bad that the Twins actually had a chance and went for it. 

  

[ewen21]

53 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

No offense but that’s bologna - Festa was a fringe rotation candidate ……. Abel had 2 very solid outings in a row and looked like an effective #4 starter going forward ……… Lopez was at the top of the Rotation. There are maybe 3 teams in the game that can absorb missing 470-520 innings from their rotation…….particularly when 1 guy is supposed to be your best……… Banda pitched to end of June this season and his last 2 of 3 months were solid.

Woods Richardson going 0-7 with an ERA between 7.00-8.00 didn’t help either……..the guy just collapsed.

Excluding Lopez, (and we already knew he was out) all we have are the track records for Banda, Abel, and Festa.  Banda had a couple of nice seasons in LA but other than that he's meat, a dime a dozen.  If you can't replace that then there's a problem.  As far as Festa and Abel are concerned, you're being highly speculative if you think they'd come in and assert themselves as assets this year.  Festa has as a lifetime 5.15ERA with a 1.300WHIP to match.  What exactly were your expectations were he healthy?  Ditto with Abel, only his lifetime numbers are worse.  A 5.46ERA and a 1.546WHIP?

 

Please explain why you expect so much better than what they've delivered thus far.  I really would like to read your thoughts on this one.

[JD-TWINS]

54 minutes ago, ewen21 said:

Excluding Lopez, (and we already knew he was out) all we have are the track records for Banda, Abel, and Festa.  Banda had a couple of nice seasons in LA but other than that he's meat, a dime a dozen.  If you can't replace that then there's a problem.  As far as Festa and Abel are concerned, you're being highly speculative if you think they'd come in and assert themselves as assets this year.  Festa has as a lifetime 5.15ERA with a 1.300WHIP to match.  What exactly were your expectations were he healthy?  Ditto with Abel, only his lifetime numbers are worse.  A 5.46ERA and a 1.546WHIP?

 

Please explain why you expect so much better than what they've delivered thus far.  I really would like to read your thoughts on this one.

From May 1, until Banda got hurt at end of June, his ERA was 1.35 over 23 appearances.

Sands hardly pitched all year & was expected to at least be a Top 4 guy from the PEN.

Festa was a depth guy for rotation, then probably was to become what was Travis Adam’s spot…….longer relief.

Abel gave up 0 runs over 13 innings in his last 2 starts.

Festa is 25 & Abel is 24, so their “career stats”, IMO, aren’t really that significant.

Team had to absorb the loss of Lopez as well, just because it happened at the beginning of Spring Training doesn’t mean that he doesn’t need to be replaced with depth that’s in place. …….then 2 more probable starters……..then Ober & then Ryan.

The relievers aren’t exactly dominant guys but were counted on ……… losing 3 starters isn’t a typical occurrence for what ultimately becomes “a good Team” near the end of the season.

[ashbury]

Exceeded my personal expectations but I was an outlier.  I really expected injuries to trigger a full collapse, but instead they found the pieces necessary to hang in there for merely a below-average record.

[Riverbrian]

@Nick Nelson. This was fair, measured, reasoned and extremely well written article. 

Personally, I think they exceeded and did not exceed my expectations. 

To be fair... to be honest. My expectations in the off-season is what I'll measure against and I will do my best to not use any hindsight revisions. 

In regards to the offense. They exceeded my expectation. I didn't have great expectations opening day.   I thought the offense would have a dickens of a time producing runs. I felt good about the OF, the infield had me all kinds of nervous. I was wrong... even with the collapse of Wallner (and Wallner I was counting on)... the Twins either sequencing or just the sure will of collective averageness... the offense was able to exceed my expectation. In regards to Lewis. If he could have been the Lewis that was promised to us on his birth as the first pick overall. Lewis could have raised my expectations by himself. I have been in a consistent state of "He's going to have to prove he figured something out"... he will need to earn my faith.  My lowered expectations for the team... was fueled by my lowered expectations with Royce Lewis.

The Starting pitching did not meet my expectations. We had depth... if we had any chance of the playoffs this year... I figured the starting pitching would be the reason. I was concerned the bullpen would possibly undo the starting pitching at times but I felt good.  I was wrong despite solid performances from Ryan and Bradley. 

The bullpen... I thought it was about the worst bullpen I have ever seen assembled. I was hopeful that they would cycle through auditions quickly to find some arms and they did that... they found some and stabilized the unit a little... But in the end... The bullpen was not good at that's what I expected so met expectation. 

Bring it all together... in total. They ended with a record that I felt they were going to be at in the off-season.

I mistakenly nailed it. 

[ewen21]

Festa is going to have to show me some command soon.  He makes me think of Alex Meyer whether that is fair or not.  He simply has not done a damn thing yet and until he actually does he's as replaceable as the oil filter on an '03 Camry.  I am speaking specifically about what I (read WE) have seen of Festa at the major league level.  It hasn't been good.  Whatever I missed his 5.12 lifetime earned run average in 117 innings tells us something beyond whatever anecdotes I want to mention, as does his 1.300WHIP.  No one should have expected him to suddenly ascend a few tiers in one season.  Hoping for it vs expecting it are two different things.

 

As far as Mick Abel is concerned, his walk rate doesn't inspire confidence in me.  There are Mick Abels, David Festas and Anthony Bandas moving almost every single week on the transaction wire in major league baseball.   If we can't replace guys like them then we have some serious fargin problems

[LastOnePicked]

7 hours ago, ziggy said:

Did the team exceed my expectations? Yes

But only because my expectations were so low to begin with.

That's going to be the entire foundation for their 2027 marketing strategy.

[jkcarew]

38-43 in the first 81 games

39-42 in the last 81 games.

There was no second half collapse. That is a false narrative.

18-30 against the NL; 59-55 against the AL.

About what I expected overall (although, I didn’t expect the AL to be historically awful relative to the NL). Some overachieving, some underachieving, as can always be expected. And Buxton breaking down and playing less than a half season at full health…as can also always be expected. Maybe a little better than I expected, but that’s probably explained by how awful the AL was.

 

 

 

 

 

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[minman1982]

The 2026 Twins were about what I expected. An average offense, not great defense, average starting pitching, and a terrible bullpen. Overall, a slightly below average but not absolutely terrible team. Looking to 2027, I think the team has their answer about Royce Lewis (not an everyday player). They need to decide what to do with Ryan Jeffers (probably can't sign him) and Joe Ryan (probably should have traded him).  They need to get an arm or two for the bullpen. 

The one nice thing the Twins have going for them is they don't have a lot of guys under long term contracts. According to Sportrac, they have about $113M in payroll commitments for 2027. That number drops to $27M in 2028 (Caratini and Buxton) and then to $0 in 2029. This means the Twins have some financial flexibility in the near future. This makes it at least possible for the Twins to entertain the idea of extending a guy like Joe Ryan or Ryan Jeffers if the price and terms are right.

[Czelgert]

Getting five more wins than expectations and still missing the playoffs is like getting 55% instead of 50% on a test.  Both scores are still an F.  The Twins FO needs to commit to building a full team in the offseason instead of trying to build the plane in the air.  Why some accept this level of planning from the organization is beyond me.  The team needs a 1B, a C, and likely another rotational bat that can play the OF when Buck inevitably misses 50 games next year.  

[RpR]

They had a late season collapse, nothing new but it got old years ago.