For 2027, Twins Have a Gaping Hole Behind Home Plate

[DannySD]

With all the young players and current catching pipeline, they can easily afford a 4 or 5 year market-rate extension for Jeffers. 

[D.C Twins]

3 minutes ago, DannySD said:

With all the young players and current catching pipeline, they can easily afford a 4 or 5 year market-rate extension for Jeffers. 

Do you think that the Yankees will limit themselves to 'market rate?"

[PuckettPond]

Drafting quality athletic catchers solve many problems. Hopefully the 2026 draft is only the beginning. 

[Maybe Next Year]

I don't see much of anything happening this offseason until the CBA is resolved. I believe the Twins will make Jeffers a qualifying offer after the World Series. If he signs the offer they could still trade him at some point. If he doesn't sign and becomes a free agent the Twins can still negotiate with him on a multi-year contract. It will be interesting to see what happens after the CBA expires December 1st. If there is a lockout obviously both sides will have to compromise to get the season rolling and nobody knows what impact that will have on free agency, salary caps, revenue sharing etc... If the players and owners can agree on revenue sharing and a minimum team payroll it shouldn't be a problem paying Jeffers big money - the Twins will need to up their payroll by 50+ million dollars. If there is no minimum team payroll/ revenue sharing Jeffers, if he doesn't sign, would be taking a chance on free agency under very uncertain conditions. If I were Jeffers I would sign the one year $24 million offer knowing he would be getting a huge increase in salary and still be a free agent the following year.

[DannySD]

8 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

Do you think that the Yankees will limit themselves to 'market rate?"

Someone has to set the market. 

[Nashvilletwin]

4 minutes ago, DannySD said:

Someone has to set the market. 

 

13 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

Do you think that the Yankees will limit themselves to 'market rate?"

Might depend on how quickly the cap rolls in. Yankees might not have a ton of cap room. Maybe Jeffers likes living in MN. Who knows?

[LA Vikes Fan]

4 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The decision is a no-brainer: re-sign Jeffers to a 4 yr. $70MM or so deal.

Jeffers is C1 in ‘27 and probably ‘28 or until Lackey is ready. After that, he starts at 1B, is DH on the other days, and is emergency C3.

We will have plenty of cash with a new floor and after losing both Ryan and Lopez after the strike shortened ‘27 and Buxton after ‘28.

Easy peasy.

 

I know we all kind of want to snicker at this given the Twins history but NashvilleTwin has exactly the right answer. Jeffers is likely to get a 3 or 4 year deal, probably 4, $17-20M AAV is probably the sweet spot. We need the bat in '27 and '28 and the prospect timeline is probably at least 2 years out. He would be the perfect signing if the new CBA includes a salary floor combined with some kind of NBA style cap (the union will never go for a hard cap).

Here's my thought for the off season. Re-sign Jeffers, 4 years $68-75M. Re-sign Lopez for 4 years $90-100M. He wants to stay and is at a low leverage point coming off TJ. Re-sign Minter, 2 years, $18-20M. Trade Larnach for prospects, be willing to throw in an A or AA back end of the top 30 guy to get a better prospect, middle infielder preferred.  Trade Ryan for a projectable middle of the order bat. I would target Michael Busch of the Cubs or Samuel Basilio of the Orioles in a 1-1 trade although the Twins might need to add a 15-30 prospect to balance out the control timelines. Another thought would be to trade Ryan to Boston for Tristan Casas (risky because coming off injury) and either Connelly Early or Allan Castro plus.  To increase the possibility of Ryan re-signing and thus his trade value, talk to the California teams about trading him for Bryce Eldridge (SF),  Dalton Rushing (Dodgers), or maybe to the Angels for a package of Christian Moore (2B, 22 years old), Grayson Rodriguez, and a lower level guy. Trade Lewis back home to the Angels as the classic change of scenery candidate for an upside package like Grayson Rodriguez or George Klassen plus Moises Ballesteros. That's it. No signing averageish vets to fill holes. Drop either Ober or Kremer by trading them for a prospect, start at least two of Prielipp, Matthews, Abel, and Rojas in the #4 and #5 rotation holes (all 4 will get starts with injuries in 2027), and play Keaschall, Culpepper, EmRod, Jenkins, and Lee every day. Pick the rebuilding around current core lane and commit to it. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 hours ago, laloesch said:

Pretty much this.  Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers will be gone at the end of this season. 

I didn't realize this but Joe Ryan's contract has a mutual option meaning even if the Twins want to pick up his option he HAS to agree, otherwise he can walk at the end of this season.  I hope he wants to stick around but I've heard he wants to go back to California.  It's very possible both Ryan and Jeffers walk as soon as the season is over.  Jeffers wants a long contract and a big pay day and the Twins are unlikely to give him that. 

Lopez's contract ends at the end of the 2027 season (if there is one).  I think it's safe to assume it's gonna take him a good chunk of the 2027 season to get his feet under him (this is his second TJ surgery), but then he's a free agent as well at age 31/32.  I doubt the Twins re-sign him unless it's a good deal for the team.  

Buxton's contract ends at the end of 2028.  I can't imagine he'll sign an extension.  Given his health issues I believe he will retire.

I also doubt the Twins carry Ober and Larnach beyond 2027. 

The Twins will have shed a huge amount of salary by then (over 63.75 million annual).  At the conclusion of 2028 the Twins will also stop paying 10 million a season for what's left of Correa's contract as well.  

They will have to spend a TON of money to meet a 171.2 million dollar floor if that makes it into the new CBA.

No. If he doesn’t agree to that number then he would go to arbitration. After this season do you think he is set to make more than 13 million in arbitration for 2027?

[LA Vikes Fan]

27 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I know we all kind of want to snicker at this given the Twins history but NashvilleTwin has exactly the right answer. Jeffers is likely to get a 3 or 4 year deal, probably 4, $17-20M AAV is probably the sweet spot. We need the bat in '27 and '28 and the prospect timeline is probably at least 2 years out. He would be the perfect signing if the new CBA includes a salary floor combined with some kind of NBA style cap (the union will never go for a hard cap).

Here's my thought for the off season. Re-sign Jeffers, 4 years $68-75M. Re-sign Lopez for 4 years $90-100M. He wants to stay and is at a low leverage point coming off TJ. Re-sign Minter, 2 years, $18-20M. Trade Larnach for prospects, be willing to throw in an A or AA back end of the top 30 guy to get a better prospect, middle infielder preferred.  Trade Ryan for a projectable middle of the order bat. I would target Michael Busch of the Cubs or Samuel Basilio of the Orioles in a 1-1 trade although the Twins might need to add a 15-30 prospect to balance out the control timelines. Another thought would be to trade Ryan to Boston for Tristan Casas (risky because coming off injury) and either Connelly Early or Allan Castro plus.  To increase the possibility of Ryan re-signing and thus his trade value, talk to the California teams about trading him for Bryce Eldridge (SF),  Dalton Rushing (Dodgers), or maybe to the Angels for a package of Christian Moore (2B, 22 years old), Grayson Rodriguez, and a lower level guy. Trade Lewis back home to the Angels as the classic change of scenery candidate for an upside package like Grayson Rodriguez or George Klassen plus Moises Ballesteros. That's it. No signing averageish vets to fill holes. Drop either Ober or Kremer by trading them for a prospect, start at least two of Prielipp, Matthews, Abel, and Rojas in the #4 and #5 rotation holes (all 4 will get starts with injuries in 2027), and play Keaschall, Culpepper, EmRod, Jenkins, and Lee every day. Pick the rebuilding around current core lane and commit to it. 

Last thought as I avoid doing work today. Here's the steps and lineup/roster:

Trades - Ryan and 15-20 prospect to Cubs for Michael Busch. Ober for A ball lottery ticket. Lewis to Angels for Moises Ballesteros and Grayson Rodriguez. 

FA singings - Jeffers, 4 years, $68-75M. Minter, 2 years $18-22M. Lopez, 4 years, $90-110M. Bell goes elsewhere.

Lineup (in rough batting order) - Keaschall (OF/DH), Buxton (OF/DH). Busch (IB), Jeffers (C), Lee (3B), Clemens (2B), Culpepper (SS), two of EmRod, Jenkins, Ballesteros (DH/OF). balance out the 7-9 spots with Culpepper to avoid two LH hitters back to back. 

Bench - 1 of EmRod, Jenkins, Ballesteros (DH/OF), Martin (OF/2B), Caratini (C),  Kriedler or Ross (UTL IF), one of Roden, Jackson, or the Kriedler/Ross loser.

Rotation - Lopez, Bradley, Prielipp, Kremer, Matthews (Abel, Rojas, Grayson Rodriquez, Bohorquez, and either CJ Culpepper or Ryan Gallagher the AAA rotation pitching starters workloads to be ready for the inevitable injuries/non-performance issues).

Bullpen - Hoffman (late inning/closer), Gomez (late inning/closer),  Minter (late inning/closer), Morris (late inning/closer), Banda (2nd LH), David Festa (late inning/closer), Nance (middle relief), one of Funderburk, Peredes, Adams, Sands, Acton - the other 4 plus Anderson, Orze, Raya, and either Culpepper or Gallagher in the AAA BP as depth). 

[miller761]

Jeffers is not a good catcher. He has more than his share of passed balls and some wild pitches that should be passed balls. His value is in his hitting and that maybe a bit of a gamble to the team he signs with. He reaches for too many balls instead of moving his body and his throwing arm is average at best. Let Caratini play 4 or 5 games in a row to see what happens. I don't think we will as bad as people think at the position next year.

 

[Andy MacPhail]

In '19, the Twins were set at catcher. Mitch Garver 4.1 WAR, Jason Castro 0.6 WAR with promising Ryan Jeffers & Ben Rortvedt as prospects. Along with a bad Donaldson contract, the Twins took a nose-dive in catching priority. They devastated the catching position to unload Donaldson contract & put all their eggs in Boras's client Jeffers, IMO, that was a grave mistake that they never rectified until they drafted Lackey, That 5 yrs. wait was too long because '27 & beyond until Lackey is ready, we be really hurting at catching. During that 5yr wait I have suggested many promising young MLB-ready catchers that the Twins should target, Here, are 2 who I suggested this season, Adley Rutschman (BOS picked him up & turned their season around), Ethan Salas (his BTV was a bargain at 20.6 now it's 49.6) both were desperate for SP, Ryans BTV was 49.6, now it's 18.5 & falling. Twins could have picked up Salas & a lot of pitching for Ryan. 

March 28, 2026

Yankees

Name	Age	Level	P1	P2	Availability	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus	Low	Median	High
Ryan Jeffers	29	Majors	C		Low	1	18.4	6.7	11.7	9.4	11.7	14
Adrian Morejon	27	Majors	RP		Low	1	15.9	3.9	12	9.6	12	14.5
Cole Paplham	26	Minors	RP			0	0	0	0.9	0.7	0.9	1.1

Total Value:

24.60

Padres

51

Name	Age	Level	P1	P2	Availability	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus	Low	Median	High
Paul Goldschmidt	38	Majors	1B		Very low	1	4.4	4	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.5
Joe Ryan	30	Majors	SP		Low	2	64.9	15.4	49.6	39.7	49.6	59.5
Ryan Gallagher	23	Minors	SP			0	0	0	2.4	1.9	2.4	2.9

Total Value:

52.4

Twins

41

Name	Age	Level	P1	P2	Availability	Years	AFV	Salary	Surplus	Low	Median	High
Camilo Doval	28	Majors	RP		Medium	2	8.6	6.1	2.5	2	2.5	3
Jeremiah Estrada	27	Majors	RP			4	39.7	22.2	17.5	14	17.5	21
Ryan Weathers	26	Majors	SP	LRP	Low	3	22.8	6.8	16.1	12.8	16.1	19.3
Ethan Salas	20	Minors	C			0	0	0	20.6	16.5	20.6	24.8
Bradgley Rodriguez	22	Majors	RP			5	1.7	0	1.7	1.3	1.7	2
J.C. Escarra	31	Majors	C	1B		5	10.9	5	5.9	4.7	5.9	7.1

Total Value:

64.3

 

[laloesch]

2 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I am happy to report that you are incorrect. Yes, Ryan and the team do have a mutual option for '27, but Ryan remains unted team control whether that mutual option is exercised or not.

My mistake. I misunderstand the mutual option aspect. But it matters not. If he expresses that does not want it they will trade him like they should have at this trade deadline along with Jeffers 

[laloesch]

19 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

No. If he doesn’t agree to that number then he would go to arbitration. After this season do you think he is set to make more than 13 million in arbitration for 2027?

Almost certainly 

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

23 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Last thought as I avoid doing work today. Here's the steps and lineup/roster:

Trades - Ryan and 15-20 prospect to Cubs for Michael Busch. Ober for A ball lottery ticket. Lewis to Angels for Moises Ballesteros and Grayson Rodriguez. 

FA singings - Jeffers, 4 years, $68-75M. Minter, 2 years $18-22M. Lopez, 4 years, $90-110M. Bell goes elsewhere.

Lineup (in rough batting order) - Keaschall (OF/DH), Buxton (OF/DH). Busch (IB), Jeffers (C), Lee (3B), Clemens (2B), Culpepper (SS), two of EmRod, Jenkins, Ballesteros (DH/OF). balance out the 7-9 spots with Culpepper to avoid two LH hitters back to back. 

Bench - 1 of EmRod, Jenkins, Ballesteros (DH/OF), Martin (OF/2B), Caratini (C),  Kriedler or Ross (UTL IF), one of Roden, Jackson, or the Kriedler/Ross loser.

Rotation - Lopez, Bradley, Prielipp, Kremer, Matthews (Abel, Rojas, Grayson Rodriquez, Bohorquez, and either CJ Culpepper or Ryan Gallagher the AAA rotation pitching starters workloads to be ready for the inevitable injuries/non-performance issues).

Bullpen - Hoffman (late inning/closer), Gomez (late inning/closer),  Minter (late inning/closer), Morris (late inning/closer), Banda (2nd LH), David Festa (late inning/closer), Nance (middle relief), one of Funderburk, Peredes, Adams, Sands, Acton - the other 4 plus Anderson, Orze, Raya, and either Culpepper or Gallagher in the AAA BP as depth). 

So part of the plan is offer both of Larnach and Ober Arb and trade them for prospects? Ober made 6.5 this year and Larnach 6.25, lets say the both get a small bump. So the Twins are going to pay 15 million or so and a back end of the top 30 guy to get a better prospect for a A ball lottery ticket and a better prospect? 

Picking up Polanco's 10.5 million dollar option and Farmer's 6.25 worked out so well the Twins should try that plan once again, but not even for a top 100 prospect this time? 

Plus the twins are going to trade Ryan plus a prospect for Michael Busch who is 29 and coming off a year with an OPS+ of 104 and bat him 3rd?

The angels will trade for Lewis who will make about 5.7 next year for Ballesteros you have him as a OF/DH when he has never played an inning in the outfield in the majors and has barely ever caught and Rodrguez who each have at least 3 years of control? 

Going to make Jeffers the highest paid catcher in the game, even though though his first 7 years he has only played more than 100 games twice.

Pay Lopez somewhere between 110 and 130 million to pitch from age 31 - 35. (after making 14 starts in two years)

Offer Minter less than he is making this year?

Everyone of these seem very unlikely to happen or not a great idea if they do. 

 

 

[rv78]

Mickey Gasper is having a career year in Boston. Problem solved.

[Nashvilletwin]

2 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I know we all kind of want to snicker at this given the Twins history but NashvilleTwin has exactly the right answer. Jeffers is likely to get a 3 or 4 year deal, probably 4, $17-20M AAV is probably the sweet spot. We need the bat in '27 and '28 and the prospect timeline is probably at least 2 years out. He would be the perfect signing if the new CBA includes a salary floor combined with some kind of NBA style cap (the union will never go for a hard cap).

Here's my thought for the off season. Re-sign Jeffers, 4 years $68-75M. Re-sign Lopez for 4 years $90-100M. He wants to stay and is at a low leverage point coming off TJ. Re-sign Minter, 2 years, $18-20M. Trade Larnach for prospects, be willing to throw in an A or AA back end of the top 30 guy to get a better prospect, middle infielder preferred.  Trade Ryan for a projectable middle of the order bat. I would target Michael Busch of the Cubs or Samuel Basilio of the Orioles in a 1-1 trade although the Twins might need to add a 15-30 prospect to balance out the control timelines. Another thought would be to trade Ryan to Boston for Tristan Casas (risky because coming off injury) and either Connelly Early or Allan Castro plus.  To increase the possibility of Ryan re-signing and thus his trade value, talk to the California teams about trading him for Bryce Eldridge (SF),  Dalton Rushing (Dodgers), or maybe to the Angels for a package of Christian Moore (2B, 22 years old), Grayson Rodriguez, and a lower level guy. Trade Lewis back home to the Angels as the classic change of scenery candidate for an upside package like Grayson Rodriguez or George Klassen plus Moises Ballesteros. That's it. No signing averageish vets to fill holes. Drop either Ober or Kremer by trading them for a prospect, start at least two of Prielipp, Matthews, Abel, and Rojas in the #4 and #5 rotation holes (all 4 will get starts with injuries in 2027), and play Keaschall, Culpepper, EmRod, Jenkins, and Lee every day. Pick the rebuilding around current core lane and commit to it. 

People were snickering at me?  My fellow TDers?

Wasnt the first time and certainly won’t be the last, lol.

[Rosterman]

Signing Jeffers to play first AFTER the Lewis experiment is over. Of course, would like to see Keaschall also given the first base bag.

Golly dang, they had Jackson thru waivers ane 40-man, or we might lose him.d sitting in St. Paul. Adding him abck to the 40-man in the off-season could've happened to keep him. But, no. Sit him on the bench to do... nothing.

Caratini cannot throw out base stealers. Fine if you never walk anyone.

Olivar was also a possibility of a 2027 backup coming out of spring training. Might still be. He, too, needs to be added to the 40-man. or we will probably lose him.

Lackey cannot come fast enough, but chances of him even arriving by mid-season might be jsut a pipe dream.

The money spent for two years of Caratini could've been spent on Jeffers.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, laloesch said:

Almost certainly 

We'll see. His 2nd half certainly didn't help. He agreed to the mutual option for 2027 to not have to go to arbitration. This offseason will be strange to say the very minimum, and he did make 6.2 in 2026. I'm not certain he is getting an awful lot more than 13 via arbitration in 2027.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, MapleGroveTwinsFan said:

So part of the plan is offer both of Larnach and Ober Arb and trade them for prospects? Ober made 6.5 this year and Larnach 6.25, lets say the both get a small bump. So the Twins are going to pay 15 million or so and a back end of the top 30 guy to get a better prospect for a A ball lottery ticket and a better prospect? 

Picking up Polanco's 10.5 million dollar option and Farmer's 6.25 worked out so well the Twins should try that plan once again, but not even for a top 100 prospect this time? 

Plus the twins are going to trade Ryan plus a prospect for Michael Busch who is 29 and coming off a year with an OPS+ of 104 and bat him 3rd?

The angels will trade for Lewis who will make about 5.7 next year for Ballesteros you have him as a OF/DH when he has never played an inning in the outfield in the majors and has barely ever caught and Rodrguez who each have at least 3 years of control? 

Going to make Jeffers the highest paid catcher in the game, even though though his first 7 years he has only played more than 100 games twice.

Pay Lopez somewhere between 110 and 130 million to pitch from age 31 - 35. (after making 14 starts in two years)

Offer Minter less than he is making this year?

Everyone of these seem very unlikely to happen or not a great idea if they do. 

 

 

I'm not sure I was clear enough in my post. My view is that we offer Larnach and Ober arbitration if we can't trade them before the offer deadline and then trade them so we never have to pay that money. There is of course some risk that you can't trade them but I think the risk is minimal for both. Salaries of 7 to 7.5 million a year for what they bring to the table is pretty standard or even low in the current atmosphere. If you don't like taking the risk that you might have to pay them, just non-– tender them before the arb deadline. I like taking the tender risk for the likelihood that I can get a couple of prospects in return before I have to pay the arbitration salaries a whole lot better. You may be more risk-averse that I am so your mileage may vary. The main point is to get them out of the way for players coming up rather than grinding through another mediocre or worse season using the same guys.

As far as paying Lopez, $23-$30 million a year is the going rate for a quality #2 starter and might even be low. Again, you don't have to take the risk if you don't want to and you can opt for the alternative of pitching him in 2027, maybe trading him at the deadline for prospects (which is all you get at the deadline), or letting him walk at the end of the year. Whenever you sign anyone to a long term contract, especially a pitcher, you are going to potentially overpay at the back end of the contract for the value you get. If you're not willing to take that risk you cannot sign a pitcher to a long-term contract. Period. If you're not willing to sign a good pitcher to a long-term contract, you can't sign him at all because a good pitcher won't take a short term contract. I think it's worth it to take the risk to keep the guy who is the closest we have to a top of the rotation starter for the next four years. Remember, pitchers tend to age better into their mid-30s than hitters. As for Minter, two years $18 million-$22 million is the high end of the range of his expected contract for 2027. Many sites have him as likely to get one year, $6 million-$8 million because of prior injury and because he's lost a couple of mph on his fastball. I may be high, we might be able to get him for two years $15 million to $18 million. Even a better deal if we can do that.

As for Jeffers, if you think he's not going to get a three or four year deal at least $16 million-$18 million in AAV, I think you need to look again at the Catcher market. He's it other than maybe Stephenson of the Reds who is a year older and has a worse track record. The Yankees need a catcher as do several other teams. I would not all be surprised to see Jeffers get a multiyear deal averaging $20 million a season. We got nobody else. We need him and, by the way, we got nobody else making any real money after 2027 unless we re-sign Lopez since Buxton's deal expires after 2028 and it's only $15 million a season anyway. We should be willing to stretch for Jeffers and do what several other posters have suggested, have him as the primary Catcher until either Lackey or Tait is ready, then move him to a 1B/DH/backup C role. Will we be overpaying for that role when he is 33 at the end of a four year deal that starts in his age 30 season? Probably. That's the price of admission, Some team or more likely many teams will be willing to pay that price.

I think we will be lucky to trade Joe Ryan for someone the quality of Michael Busch. Ryan is a very good pitcher when he pitches. The problem is he's only pitched over 150 innings a year twice in the last five, topping out at 171, and he had a 6.34 ERA after July 24 this year. His meltdown the second half this year is frankly fairly similar to last year and raises real questions about his durability. That's why also suggested trading him to the Dodgers for a guy like Dalton Rushing since the Dodgers are willing to take guys who only pitch two thirds of it season, stack them up seven deep, and have a quality rotation for the playoffs. He also has only one year of arbitration left and then is an unrestricted free agent. It has been reported that he wants something like a seven year, $210 million contract when he hits free agency. He has value this off-season, but not overwhelming value. Maybe it's better to trade him for a prospect package like we were offered at the trade deadline. Well, hopefully better than the packages we were reportedly offered at the trade deadline this year, all of which seemed pretty weak. But I'm hoping we can get a decent middle of the order bat like Busch or even Samuel Basilio from the Orioles. We might have to include a prospect though to make that happen.

Finally, my thought on trading Lewis to the Angels is a trade of change of scenery candidates with talent. Grayson Rodriguez has a lot of talent and throws in the upper 90s, but he's had trouble harnessing his ability for the Angels. The Angels need a third baseman desperately. Lewis has talent but hasn't really harnessed it for the Twins the last three years. Ballesteros is just kind of a throw in so we have a right-handed bat, I'd be fine with a couple of their other young players/ prospects instead like Sam Bachman for the bullpen or someone like that. The main key is to trade Lewis while he still has some value because he will have no value in another season if he hits next year like he did this year or even like he did in 2024 or 2025. I'm afraid two torn ACLs may have sapped his athleticism to the point where he can't come back. I do think he has some trade value this off-season if we're willing to take on kind of a similar situation in return for him; a talented player who is not been able to yet put it together for another team but for whom there is still some hope.

That's the background to my overall thinking. Hope that helps.

 

[MeleMouth]

26 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I'm not sure I was clear enough in my post. My view is that we offer Larnach and Ober arbitration if we can't trade them before the offer deadline and then trade them so we never have to pay that money. There is of course some risk that you can't trade them but I think the risk is minimal for both. Salaries of 7 to 7.5 million a year for what they bring to the table is pretty standard or even low in the current atmosphere. If you don't like taking the risk that you might have to pay them, just non-– tender them before the arb deadline. I like taking the tender risk for the likelihood that I can get a couple of prospects in return before I have to pay the arbitration salaries a whole lot better. You may be more risk-averse that I am so your mileage may vary. The main point is to get them out of the way for players coming up rather than grinding through another mediocre or worse season using the same guys.

As far as paying Lopez, $23-$30 million a year is the going rate for a quality #2 starter and might even be low. Again, you don't have to take the risk if you don't want to and you can opt for the alternative of pitching him in 2027, maybe trading him at the deadline for prospects (which is all you get at the deadline), or letting him walk at the end of the year. Whenever you sign anyone to a long term contract, especially a pitcher, you are going to potentially overpay at the back end of the contract for the value you get. If you're not willing to take that risk you cannot sign a pitcher to a long-term contract. Period. If you're not willing to sign a good pitcher to a long-term contract, you can't sign him at all because a good pitcher won't take a short term contract. I think it's worth it to take the risk to keep the guy who is the closest we have to a top of the rotation starter for the next four years. Remember, pitchers tend to age better into their mid-30s than hitters. As for Minter, two years $18 million-$22 million is the high end of the range of his expected contract for 2027. Many sites have him as likely to get one year, $6 million-$8 million because of prior injury and because he's lost a couple of mph on his fastball. I may be high, we might be able to get him for two years $15 million to $18 million. Even a better deal if we can do that.

As for Jeffers, if you think he's not going to get a three or four year deal at least $16 million-$18 million in AAV, I think you need to look again at the Catcher market. He's it other than maybe Stephenson of the Reds who is a year older and has a worse track record. The Yankees need a catcher as do several other teams. I would not all be surprised to see Jeffers get a multiyear deal averaging $20 million a season. We got nobody else. We need him and, by the way, we got nobody else making any real money after 2027 unless we re-sign Lopez since Buxton's deal expires after 2028 and it's only $15 million a season anyway. We should be willing to stretch for Jeffers and do what several other posters have suggested, have him as the primary Catcher until either Lackey or Tait is ready, then move him to a 1B/DH/backup C role. Will we be overpaying for that role when he is 33 at the end of a four year deal that starts in his age 30 season? Probably. That's the price of admission, Some team or more likely many teams will be willing to pay that price.

I think we will be lucky to trade Joe Ryan for someone the quality of Michael Busch. Ryan is a very good pitcher when he pitches. The problem is he's only pitched over 150 innings a year twice in the last five, topping out at 171, and he had a 6.34 ERA after July 24 this year. His meltdown the second half this year is frankly fairly similar to last year and raises real questions about his durability. That's why also suggested trading him to the Dodgers for a guy like Dalton Rushing since the Dodgers are willing to take guys who only pitch two thirds of it season, stack them up seven deep, and have a quality rotation for the playoffs. He also has only one year of arbitration left and then is an unrestricted free agent. It has been reported that he wants something like a seven year, $210 million contract when he hits free agency. He has value this off-season, but not overwhelming value. Maybe it's better to trade him for a prospect package like we were offered at the trade deadline. Well, hopefully better than the packages we were reportedly offered at the trade deadline this year, all of which seemed pretty weak. But I'm hoping we can get a decent middle of the order bat like Busch or even Samuel Basilio from the Orioles. We might have to include a prospect though to make that happen.

Finally, my thought on trading Lewis to the Angels is a trade of change of scenery candidates with talent. Grayson Rodriguez has a lot of talent and throws in the upper 90s, but he's had trouble harnessing his ability for the Angels. The Angels need a third baseman desperately. Lewis has talent but hasn't really harnessed it for the Twins the last three years. Ballesteros is just kind of a throw in so we have a right-handed bat, I'd be fine with a couple of their other young players/ prospects instead like Sam Bachman for the bullpen or someone like that. The main key is to trade Lewis while he still has some value because he will have no value in another season if he hits next year like he did this year or even like he did in 2024 or 2025. I'm afraid two torn ACLs may have sapped his athleticism to the point where he can't come back. I do think he has some trade value this off-season if we're willing to take on kind of a similar situation in return for him; a talented player who is not been able to yet put it together for another team but for whom there is still some hope.

That's the background to my overall thinking. Hope that helps.

 

Thanks for putting your thoughts out there.

[DJL44]

Tyler Stephenson looks like a decent option. He is unlikely to get more than Vazquez did a couple years ago.

[Andy MacPhail]

Caratini is a back-up catcher, Jackson is a #3 catcher w/o options, Lackey is a little way away, they need to step up. I'm not sure that they can. The lock-out could be to their advantage but still we need a promising young catcher with options to fill in when they need a break & either or both go down.

 

[Shaitan]

[gif deleted]

Edited 1 hour ago by Shaitan

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

People were snickering at me?  My fellow TDers?

Wasnt the first time and certainly won’t be the last, lol.

Begrudging admiration for your shot at Zoll's job. I'll vouch for you.

[S Bart]

Crater ..more like it..

[jkcarew]

In 2027 the Twins Have a Gaping Hole Behind Home Plate

Sounds unacceptably dangerous. If the Pohlads truly can’t afford the shovels and rakes necessary to fill it…as they’re sure to claim, maybe MLB will force them to sell!!

[TheLeviathan]

Lackey looks like a fast-track kind of player, so a stop-gap, two year deal for someone like Carson Kelly is appealing to me.  Somone with a pretty good track record as a defensive catcher who can help the young pitchers develop.  

A Henry Davis change of scenery type would appeal to me as well.