Ranking the Top-10 Twins Prospects Since 2010

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson - IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Not every prospect can live up to the hype. That has always been true in baseball, but it feels even more relevant in the modern game. Today, every at-bat can be watched, every swing can be dissected and nearly every performance can be tracked in real time. A prospect can go from an unknown name to a household name in a matter of months.

The Minnesota Twins have had their share of highly touted prospects in the Target Field era over the past decade and a half. Some became stars. Others became solid big leaguers. Some never came close to reaching the expectations placed upon them.

For this list, I'm looking at the Twins' top prospects as they were viewed at the time rather than how their careers ultimately unfolded. This isn't a ranking of the best big-league players. It is an attempt to put each prospect's hype into historical context.

The rankings below are based primarily on each player's peak standing on major prospect lists.

Honorable Mentions

OF Trevor Larnach: Larnach was one of the organization's premier prospects after being selected 20th overall in 2018. His combination of power and patience made him one of the more intriguing bats in the system, but injuries and inconsistency prevented him from reaching the same prospect heights as those on this list.

SS Nick Gordon: The fifth overall pick in 2014, Gordon immediately became one of the more recognizable names in the Twins' system. His prospect stock fluctuated as he moved through the minors, but his draft pedigree and shortstop potential earned him consideration.

RHP Kyle Gibson: Gibson was one of the Twins' top pitching prospects after being selected in the first round of the 2009 draft. Much of his prospect hype came during the early part of the following decade as he moved quickly through the Minnesota farm system.

10. OF Max Kepler

Peak Ranking: #30 by Baseball America (2016)

Kepler doesn't immediately jump off the page when discussing the Twins' all-time prospect rankings, but his placement here is a testament to how much depth Minnesota has had in its farm system.

The German outfielder was an international signing who steadily climbed through the organization. By 2016, Baseball America viewed him as the No. 30 prospect in baseball. Kepler's combination of size, athleticism, defensive ability and emerging power made him one of the more intriguing young players in the organization. He jumped up national rankings after posting a .947 OPS at Double-A as a 22 year old. 

He wasn't viewed as a future superstar on the level of some players higher on this list, but he was considered a legitimate top-30 prospect in the sport.

9. OF Aaron Hicks

Peak Ranking: #19 by Baseball America (2010)

Hicks was one of the first Twins prospects of this era to generate significant national attention. Selected 14th overall in the 2008 draft, Hicks developed a reputation as an athletic center fielder with impressive tools. His speed, defensive ability and switch-hitting potential gave scouts plenty to dream on.

By 2010, Baseball America ranked him No. 19 overall. That ranking reflected the belief that Hicks could become an impact two-way center fielder. He eventually reached the majors with Minnesota before finding his best success later in his career with the Yankees.

8. SS Austin Martin

Peak Ranking: #19 by Baseball America (2021)

Martin arrived in Minnesota with plenty of prospect pedigree. The Twins acquired him from Toronto as part of the return for José Berríos at the 2021 trade deadline. He had been selected fifth overall by the Blue Jays in 2020 and entered the Twins' organization as a player with a strong offensive reputation based on his college experience.

Baseball America ranked Martin as the No. 19 prospect in baseball in 2021. The former Vanderbilt standout's combination of contact ability, plate discipline and athleticism made him an intriguing prospect, even as questions about his ultimate defensive home remained.

7. OF Emmanuel Rodriguez

Peak Ranking: #17 by Baseball Prospectus (2025)

Rodriguez represents one of the more recent additions to this list. The Twins signed him as an international free agent in 2019, and his offensive potential quickly made him one of the organization's most exciting prospects. His combination of raw power, plate discipline and athleticism allowed him to climb national prospect rankings despite some questions about his long-term defensive home.

By 2025, Baseball Prospectus ranked Rodriguez No. 17 overall. There was legitimate belief that Rodriguez possessed some of the best offensive upside in the Twins' system. However injuries have slowed his development and he has yet to debut. 

6. RHP José Berríos

Peak Ranking: #17 by Baseball Prospectus (2016)

Berríos was one of the most highly regarded pitching prospects in the Twins system during the early 2010s. Minnesota selected him 32nd overall in 2012, and he quickly began climbing prospect rankings. His fastball, breaking ball and athletic delivery gave scouts the ingredients of a potential frontline starter.

By 2016, Baseball Prospectus ranked Berríos No. 17 overall. Unlike some names on this list, Berríos ultimately came relatively close to meeting his prospect expectations. He became a durable major-league starter and earned multiple All-Star selections after establishing himself in Minnesota.

5. OF Alex Kirilloff

Peak Ranking: #9 by MLB Pipeline (2019)

Kirilloff was viewed as one of the best pure hitters in the minor leagues. The Twins selected him 15th overall in 2016, and he immediately began making a name for himself. After missing significant time with an elbow injury, Kirilloff returned to the field and quickly reminded everyone why Minnesota had been so excited about his offensive potential with a .970 OPS in 2018. 

By 2019, MLB Pipeline ranked him ninth overall. Kirilloff's combination of hitting ability, power and offensive polish made him look like a potential middle-of-the-order cornerstone. He was one of the rare Twins prospects who entered the top 10 nationally before reaching the majors. Unfortunately, injuries forced him to retire early. 

4. SS Royce Lewis

Peak Ranking: #5 by MLB Pipeline (2019)

The Twins selected Lewis first overall in 2017, and the expectations were enormous from the beginning. His athleticism immediately stood out. Lewis had plus speed, impressive defensive tools and the potential to develop into a dynamic offensive player. As he moved through the minors, his tools continued to make him one of the most exciting prospects in baseball.

MLB Pipeline ranked Lewis No. 5 overall in 2019. At that point, the Twins had a potential franchise shortstop developing in their system. Injuries would dramatically alter his development path, but that doesn't change how highly he was regarded before reaching the majors.

3. 3B Miguel Sanó

Peak Ranking: #4 by MLB Pipeline (2014)

Few Twins prospects generated as much excitement as Sanó. Signed out of the Dominican Republic, Sanó quickly became known for his enormous raw power. His physical tools were impossible to ignore, and scouts believed he had the potential to become one of baseball's most dangerous power hitters.

MLB Pipeline ranked him No. 4 overall in 2014. There were questions about his strikeout rate and defensive home, but the offensive upside was so significant that those concerns didn't prevent Sanó from reaching the top tier of the prospect rankings. For a period of time, Sanó looked like the potential centerpiece of the next great Twins lineup.

2. OF Walker Jenkins

Peak Ranking: #3 by MLB Pipeline (2025)

Jenkins doesn't have the longest track record on this list, but his prospect pedigree is undeniable. The Twins selected Jenkins fifth overall in 2023, and he immediately began showing why Minnesota believed he could become a cornerstone player. His combination of hitting ability, power, athleticism and defensive potential gave him one of the highest ceilings in the organization.

By 2025, MLB Pipeline ranked Jenkins No. 3 overall. More importantly, it wasn't based on one loud tool. Jenkins' profile was remarkably well-rounded, giving evaluators confidence that he could become an impact major-league player. The hype surrounding Jenkins has been enormous, and it puts him in rare company in Twins history.

1. OF Byron Buxton

Peak Ranking: #1 by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and MLB Pipeline (2014)

There is really only one choice for the top spot. Buxton wasn't simply one of the best prospects in Twins history. He was considered the best prospect in all of baseball. The Twins selected him second overall in 2012, and his combination of elite speed, center-field defense, athleticism and emerging offensive ability quickly pushed him toward the top of every prospect ranking. In 2014, all three major prospect publications agreed: Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and MLB Pipeline ranked Buxton No. 1 overall. That's an extraordinary level of consensus.

Prospect rankings can vary significantly from one publication to another. One evaluator might love a player's power while another questions the hit tool. Buxton didn't have that problem. Across the industry, there was widespread belief that he possessed the tools to become a franchise-changing player.

He eventually became an All-Star and one of the most dynamic players in the sport, even if injuries prevented him from reaching the consistent superstar production many envisioned.

And that is ultimately what makes this exercise interesting. The question isn't who had the best Twins career. It's who generated the most excitement before their career had been written.

By that standard, Buxton’s unanimous No. 1 ranking remains the benchmark. Walker Jenkins came close to reaching that level before his major-league debut, and he will still be considered a prospect this winter. There’s a chance he could move up this list before next season, but it’s already difficult to ignore what he has accomplished throughout his professional career.

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How would you rank the prospects of the Target Field era? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[PuckettPond]

One sees a lot of failures, heart aches, frustration & bad memories. Why can't Twin fans have nice things?

[Blyleven2011]

The only thing that comes to mind is our system of development failed on a lot of these players …

buxton when healthy is the only star ⭐️, berrios and a few others were above average but a lot of disappointing prospects …

I don’t live on hype , I live for results , still to early on Jenkins to determine what kind of player he will be , he’s got a pedigree and hopefully he has a great career with the twins …

[Patzky]

11) Kyler Fedko, signed to a minor league contract by the Pirates.  

Needed a little good news.

[Coach Wheels]

6 minutes ago, Patzky said:

11) Kyler Fedko, signed to a minor league contract by the Pirates.  

Needed a little good news.

There are no Joe Mauer's on this list but we shouldn't expect that either. The MLB draft is always a crapshoot but Culpepper and Jenkins look like ball players.

[djvang]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

11) Kyler Fedko, signed to a minor league contract by the Pirates.  

Needed a little good news.

Hopefully he'll make it back to the majors and get his first hit. 0-16 with the Twins.

[djvang]

Sano was the biggest disappointment. They just couldn't get him to stop trying to hit every pitch 800 feet. Now if they can just get Lewis to stop trying to pull everything and go the opposite way on outside pitches........

[Road trip]

Wow, that was depressing.  As a whole, the top prospects have really under-performed expectations.

At least there was a little success with some 2nd-tier prospects (Dozier, Jeffers, Rosario, Arraez, Duran, etc).  Of course, almost all of those guys are gone now too.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

No Lackey? No Culpepper?  Lackey should be top 5 already Culpepper at least honorable mention. 

[c24]

59 minutes ago, djvang said:

Sano was the biggest disappointment. They just couldn't get him to stop trying to hit every pitch 800 feet. Now if they can just get Lewis to stop trying to pull everything and go the opposite way on outside pitches........

He needs to have a conversation with Trevor Plouffe on the importance of shooters

[GNess]

Hard to assess this list unless we could see how other teams' lists of top picks for context.  But on the surface this list doesn't look very good.

[Eris]

2 hours ago, Coach Wheels said:

There are no Joe Mauer's on this list but we shouldn't expect that either.

Why should we not expect drafting and player development success as it is one of the main paths to a competitive team. The Twins have had 20 years of failure in the draft including many high picks and international signees. Of the players on this list (not including Jenkins or Rodriguez) only Berrios has not been a disappointment. 

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, Eris said:

Why should we not expect drafting and player development success as it is one of the main paths to a competitive team. The Twins have had 20 years of failure in the draft including many high picks and international signees. Of the players on this list (not including Jenkins or Rodriguez) only Berrios has not been a disappointment. 

Yup.  Gotta develop players.  By comparison, here are some that Cleveland developed in the same time period:

Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Steven Kwan, Travis Bazzana, Trevor Bauer (ok, ick), Shane Bieber, and Gavin Williams.   

That's a whole lotta All Star appearances.  Ramirez is likely going to HOF, and Lindor may have a shot.

[jkcarew]

No stars. (I’m not going to call a guy averaging less than 3 bWAR a season a star.)

And, if you want to call Buxton a star, that’s still 15 years ago. Any way you look at it, we’re DUE.

[SD happy]

I remember being so excited in 2014 thinking the Buxton/Sano combo would give us a great one two punch for years. Unfortunately, that did not work out. Then in 2019, I thought the same thing with the Lewis/Kiriloff combo. Again that didn’t work out. Let’s hope the third time will be the charm with the Jenkins/Culpepper combo. 

[Mai.K]

Back in 2015, Kohl Stewart was ranked No. 28 by Baseball Prospectus.

Although his MLB career left a lot to be desired, he was actually one of my favorite prospects.

Please mention his name as well.