Joe Ryan Has Put The Twins in a Tough Spot

[Cody Pirkl]

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Trading Joe Ryan was certainly on the table last offseason after the trade deadline sell-off. The team chose to stay the course and aim for contention in 2026. It's worked; Ryan has been an anchor for the Twins so far as they’ve hung around in the wild card picture. But when the organization doubled down on setting their sights on the postseason, the annual questions about Ryan’s ability to help in the second half became impossible to ignore. The Twins have been put in a difficult spot.

Ryan’s season took a complete 180 in his last three starts, allowing 16 earned runs in 15 ⅓ innings before heading to the injured list with a glute strain. This ostensibly minor injury could explain Ryan’s downturn, but the context of his historical struggles in the second half of the season is concerning. As the team continues to hang around in the playoff picture, they’re now without their ace, and even if his IL stay is short-lived, it’s fair to wonder what version of Ryan shows up whenever he is activated.

The Twins had enough concerns in the rotation without Ryan’s notorious second-half splits showing up again. The team’s acquisition of Dean Kremer as rotation depth is now a necessity. Even with the innings Kremer will add to the rotation, it’s difficult to imagine the team making the postseason without Ryan returning to form.

Ryan’s sample size of struggling in the second half has grown to such a point that it’s as much a part of his story as the back-to-back All-Star appearances. The team was fortunate to be in a reasonable spot to buy at the deadline, as Ryan allowing six homers to Cleveland on July 20th would have raised some eyebrows from potentially acquiring teams. That may be irrelevant now, but if Ryan either spends an extended amount of time on the IL or returns as a shell of his first-half self again, skepticism will only grow stronger.

The Twins may very well have Ryan penciled into their 2027 plans, and there is a strong argument that they should. If that’s the case, they may need to give special consideration to making sure they have the starting pitching depth and talent to make it through the second half. Injuries in the pitching staff can happen anytime, but Ryan’s drop-offs late in the season are becoming something worth planning for.

Even if he's in their plans, the Twins may be open to listening on calls regarding Ryan in the offseason in case another team wants to blow them away. It seems far less likely for that to happen than it has in past years. As the second-half struggles rear their ugly head again, teams are certain to question whether Ryan can be counted on during the most important stretch of the season. The Twins had previously asked for two top-100 prospects in return for Ryan, with some teams reportedly ready to meet that demand. It’s worth questioning whether the Twins would get anything close to that return at this point.

The Twins are in a bad spot now as a contending team in need of their ace. They also likely don’t have nearly as much flexibility this offseason if they are open to trading him. Joe Ryan has been a massive addition to the rotation the last several years, but his pattern of second-half struggles threatens to put a real damper on the tail end of his Twins career.

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How should they move forward? What would you advise? Let us know in the comments.

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[DJL44]

Bradley is the ace on this team. Ryan is the #2 guy

[EGFTShaw]

Joe Ryan PUT the Twin is in a bind????

I am sure he spent hours trying to find a way to do that.

Uggg...one of the reasons I read less and less of the Twins Daily. 

Sensationalism.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Joe Ryan isn't putting the Twins in a tough spot at all.  Granted the Twins should have likely traded him at the last deadline and then this offseason.   However Tom Pohlad wants to win and regain fan trust and wouldn't allow Falvey to trade him.  That is Toms decision making not Joe putting the Twins in a bad spot.  As to Joe Ryans decline in the second half for the longest time I have said the team should give him a 2-3 week break maybe even a month in Late July early August. .  He is a player that struggles to handle the rigors of a full season.  Let him rest,  regain strength and then push towards the end.  His velocity had cratered making his fastball extremely hittable.  

[nicksaviking]

They shouldn't trade him. This team is soooooo under budget right now and have very few holes to fill despite what their record says. Use the current player equity to go trade for another top of the rotation arm, like they did with Lopez, Gray, Maeda and Odorizzi.

The 2027 rotation of Ryan, New ****Good**** starter, Bradley, Lopez, plus one upside Prielipp/Rojas/Abel would make the rotation as formidable as it's been in a long time. The team would have both depth in AAA and in the pen to ease off Ryan for the stretch run if needed. 

[bean5302]

Joe Ryan probably has minimal trade value this offseason. I don't think he's worth moving. There has to be an assumption his final arb contract is near $20MM so his trade value is going to be pretty low.

[Patzky]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

They shouldn't trade him. This team is soooooo under budget right now and have very few holes to fill despite what their record says. Use the current player equity to go trade for another top of the rotation arm, like they did with Lopez, Gray, Maeda and Odorizzi.

The 2027 rotation of Ryan, New ****Good**** starter, Bradley, Lopez, plus one upside Prielipp/Rojas/Abel would make the rotation as formidable as it's been in a long time. The team would have both depth in AAA and in the pen to ease off Ryan for the stretch run if needed. 

For shame placing Pablo Lopez fourth in the rotation. Have you no decency sir? 😬😁 I'm mildly teasing but if that's the spot we find ourselves in life will be good in Ft Myers next spring, so long as our health holds out.

 

For now outside of seeking wins toward a run, my questions are 1) How much more Conner Prielipp are we going to see this season and in what role. 2) Will we be pushing Joe hard toward either playoffs or impressing potential suitors this winter? 3) Will we stretch out Rojas to become a starter by 2027, and will we shrink Zebby's workload toward becoming a reliever in 2027 or even in the playoffs in 26?

[PuckettPond]

1st half Joe needs to go. Trade him for pitching prospects who do not need to be on our 40 man roster. Time to set him free & fly away.

[Liferfan83]

Unfortunately maybe his future is in the bullpen. Maybe he just doesn’t have the stamina to be a starter over a full season. 

[LastOnePicked]

Sadly, this was pretty predictable. Trading Ryan at the height of his hype was absolutely necessary. It didn't happen.

He must be feeling the pressure. He shouldn't. He's a #3 starter that has to role-play as an ace for a middling team in a Wild Card hunt.

Here's hoping he comes back strong. The Twins have pushed most of their chips on this playoff push. If he can't figure it out, chances of playing meaningful baseball in September are slim.

[tony&rodney]

Joe Ryan has done quite a bit for the Twins. In addition to being an good pitcher he put the Twins in a spot to trade him for an absolute haul last July (2025) and last winter. Ryan will not be that expensive next season. His arbitration number is going to be around $13M, which is the option number the Twins and Ryan set up last winter. Only a strong close to the year will raise that number and if he is out for the year the number will fall. Ryan will recover and he will be a very good pitcher for the Twins in 2027, hopefully this August and September too.

Small mistake by the writer, but yes, Joe Ryan put the Twins in a really good spot.

Edited 3 hours ago by tony&rodney
correction

[chpettit19]

I'd argue the opposite. The Twins were in a tough spot, but they have no decision left to make now, and the situation is very easy. A truly rebuilding team would've traded Lopez, Ryan, and Jeffers before this season started. They would've maximized the number of shots they had at adding impact pieces for 2027/2028 and beyond. They changed plans mid-rebuild and decided not to trade those 3 guys. Lopez blew out his arm, Ryan collapsed again, and they kept Jeffers because the AL is abysmal. Lopez and Ryan aren't real trade chips anymore. The decision is easy now.

The only way this becomes a tough decision is if the AL is improved next year, the Twins are still hanging around .500, and Lopez and/or Ryan are having success and worth more than a comp pick in trade at the deadline. They have no decisions to make on the "big trade" front until next deadline. The Joe Ryan situation is incredibly simple now.

[MapleGroveTwinsFan]

50 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

They shouldn't trade him. This team is soooooo under budget right now and have very few holes to fill despite what their record says. Use the current player equity to go trade for another top of the rotation arm, like they did with Lopez, Gray, Maeda and Odorizzi.

The 2027 rotation of Ryan, New ****Good**** starter, Bradley, Lopez, plus one upside Prielipp/Rojas/Abel would make the rotation as formidable as it's been in a long time. The team would have both depth in AAA and in the pen to ease off Ryan for the stretch run if needed. 

Hasn't that been the case every year since 2023 (in 2022 they signed Bundy and Archer) with starting pitching and really no holes in the lineup? 

2023 - Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Maeda (with former minor league starter of the year in Varland as back up)

2024 - Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Paaddack (with Festa, Varland, Matthews as back up)

2025 - Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Paddack (with Festa, Mattews a back up)

2026 - Ryan, Ober, SWR, Bradley, Matthews (with Morris, Rojas, Prielipp, Able as back up) (2027 does look better than this)

Could do the same thing with the lineup, no real holes just need a 1B and a vet or two to compete. (Hasn't worked out to well) The lineup has been filled with hopes and dreams of Buxton staying healthy, Wallner, Kepler, Castro and Lewis returning to their peak, Larnach, Lee, Keaschll, Miranda, Julien, Martin, Gasper, Keirsey develop. 

As it currently sits, the beginning of next year feels much like the beginning of this year. Hoping Buxton stays healthy, the catchers are league average (unless somehow Jeffers is back), Hopefully Lee gets better or at least doesn't regress, Lewis finds consistency with a set position ( or at least health), Culpepper keeps growing, ERod is good and healthy, and somebody between Keaschall, Martin, Larnach, Martin, Jenkins step up for the third OF spot, and Clemens doesn't regress. (I understand and hope things are different this offseason and they actually start building a better roster)

Others have said resign Bell that leaves next year's roster at

2, catchers, Bell, Clemens (1B), Lewis (2B), Culpepper (SS), Lee (3B), Buxton(CF), Keashall (LF), ERod (RF),

Bench of Martin, Kreidler, Larnach. (With Wallner, Roden, Mendez, Gonzalez as other 40 man)

 

[rdehring]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Joe Ryan isn't putting the Twins in a tough spot at all.  Granted the Twins should have likely traded him at the last deadline and then this offseason.   However Tom Pohlad wants to win and regain fan trust and wouldn't allow Falvey to trade him.  That is Toms decision making not Joe putting the Twins in a bad spot.  As to Joe Ryans decline in the second half for the longest time I have said the team should give him a 2-3 week break maybe even a month in Late July early August. .  He is a player that struggles to handle the rigors of a full season.  Let him rest,  regain strength and then push towards the end.  His velocity had cratered making his fastball extremely hittable.  

Have you spoken with Falvey, Pohlad, Ryan or his agent?  If not, you don't know why Ryan wasn't traded last year or over the winter.  In addition, Tom Pohlad wasn't in charge of the Twins until around the same time as Falvey was leaving.  (don't recall the exact dates)

The biggest factor weighing on whether or not Ryan is traded this winter is likely how he performs when he returns from the IL.  Another major factor will be how well Bradley, Prielipp and Rojas perform over the next 40+ games, along with the health of Abel.  Should everything with even three of those four be positive, the Twins need to keep Ryan will be less important. 

[tony&rodney]

15 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd argue the opposite. The Twins were in a tough spot, but they have no decision left to make now, and the situation is very easy. A truly rebuilding team would've traded Lopez, Ryan, and Jeffers before this season started. They would've maximized the number of shots they had at adding impact pieces for 2027/2028 and beyond. They changed plans mid-rebuild and decided not to trade those 3 guys. Lopez blew out his arm, Ryan collapsed again, and they kept Jeffers because the AL is abysmal. Lopez and Ryan aren't real trade chips anymore. The decision is easy now.

The only way this becomes a tough decision is if the AL is improved next year, the Twins are still hanging around .500, and Lopez and/or Ryan are having success and worth more than a comp pick in trade at the deadline. They have no decisions to make on the "big trade" front until next deadline. The Joe Ryan situation is incredibly simple now.

Well put ..... essentially what I mentioned above.

Further, I'm confused how the writer came to their viewpoint. Perhaps that can be explained or did I miss something.

[Coach]

I'm going to pile on; the headline is unfair to Joe.

[Coach]

If the team knew of Joe's history of second half struggles, If anyone is to blame, it is the training staff.  As I mentioned in a comment when his arm first "got tired", I said it was his legs.  Just like a boxer's legs are the first thing to go, so it is with almost any athlete.  One of the most durable pitchers of all time Bert Blyleven ran, and he ran, and he ran.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

20 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Have you spoken with Falvey, Pohlad, Ryan or his agent?  If not, you don't know why Ryan wasn't traded last year or over the winter.  In addition, Tom Pohlad wasn't in charge of the Twins until around the same time as Falvey was leaving.  (don't recall the exact dates)

The biggest factor weighing on whether or not Ryan is traded this winter is likely how he performs when he returns from the IL.  Another major factor will be how well Bradley, Prielipp and Rojas perform over the next 40+ games, along with the health of Abel.  Should everything with even three of those four be positive, the Twins need to keep Ryan will be less important. 

As to the Red Sox trade I just don't think they felt there was enough time  or not quite enough value.  They thought they could regroup during the winter and trade him.  

As to Joe and Falvey they appear to have been telling teams all the way up until the winter meetings they were trading Joe.  Then the family meeting occured with the new investors.   Joe is no longer heard from.   A couple days before the Winter Meetings Falvey states plans have changed and that they are no longer trading Joe Ryan.  Later Tom is announced as the new Pohlad face in charge of the Twins.     

Falvey and Tom have a mutual parting,  stating they didn't effectively get along well or have the same vision.  As to Ryan, I would say keep him for next year unless you get an overwhelming offer which I think is unlikely.  

Timeline of dates we know

Winter Meeting -  December 7th - December 11th

Tom Announced -   December 17th 

Falvey mutually left -   January 30th  

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Joe Ryan probably has minimal trade value this offseason. I don't think he's worth moving. There has to be an assumption his final arb contract is near $20MM so his trade value is going to be pretty low.

Ryan is making $6.2M. You rarely see arbitration salaries triple in one year. $13M is more likely.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

The 2027 rotation of Ryan, New ****Good**** starter, Bradley, Lopez, plus one upside Prielipp/Rojas/Abel would make the rotation as formidable as it's been in a long time. The team would have both depth in AAA and in the pen to ease off Ryan for the stretch run if needed. 

Pretty sure they plan on Kremer filling the New Good Starter role. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Bradley is the ace on this team. Ryan is the #2 guy

Absolutely. And with Lopez back next year, that’s also a good 1-2

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Liferfan83 said:

Unfortunately maybe his future is in the bullpen. Maybe he just doesn’t have the stamina to be a starter over a full season. 

There should be a wut emoji. One with like a character holding its hands up in utter confusion. That’s the emoji I would choose for this comment. 

[Nashvilletwin]

39 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd argue the opposite. The Twins were in a tough spot, but they have no decision left to make now, and the situation is very easy. A truly rebuilding team would've traded Lopez, Ryan, and Jeffers before this season started. They would've maximized the number of shots they had at adding impact pieces for 2027/2028 and beyond. They changed plans mid-rebuild and decided not to trade those 3 guys. Lopez blew out his arm, Ryan collapsed again, and they kept Jeffers because the AL is abysmal. Lopez and Ryan aren't real trade chips anymore. The decision is easy now.

The only way this becomes a tough decision is if the AL is improved next year, the Twins are still hanging around .500, and Lopez and/or Ryan are having success and worth more than a comp pick in trade at the deadline. They have no decisions to make on the "big trade" front until next deadline. The Joe Ryan situation is incredibly simple now.

100% agree.   The ship has sailed on Ryan, Lopez, Jeffers and Buxton (no trade clause not withstanding).  After a truncated 2027, we will likely get no value (except for Buxton’s last year probably as a part time DH) from any of these players (please spare us the comp pick excuse).

As a small market team that needs to create/build toward open windows, this result is ridiculous.

Was it all to satisfy the short term PR support for the Pohlads?  When willthey ever learn that their fan support is based solely on the Twins winning.   If they truly want even a hint of lasting support from the fan base, they need to create a truly WS competitive contender - not these half baked delusions of ‘25 and ‘26.

We will get zero for our four best assets - none of whom will contribute to our next big push.  And that big push will be constrained by not moving them.  If by some measure we end up resigning Ryan and/or Lopez, either will be a massive overpay.

[It’s sickening to think we turned down Arias and Tolle from the Bosox for Ryan at last year’s deadline.  What a mistake!  We couldn’t get either one of them now for Ryan even if we threw in Houston or Tait.   What a complete waste.] 

 

[MikeNC]

I have an other theory that I've been saying for 2 years.  It is that Joe Ryan is human.  News Flash: JOE DOES NOT WANT TO BE HERE.  If you read carefully every word he said LY it was clear he wanted to be traded to a contender last year at trade deadline.  Didn't happen, pitching goes lethargic.  Then he's expecting to be traded this offseason.  Nope.  But he figures this team is a disaster, and will be a seller at TY trade deadline and so he pitches well hoping again to be traded to a contender.  No again.  Pitching immediatly goes lethargic.  Have you noticed that when one of his teammates makes an error his next pitches tend to go right down the middle until one lands in the seats?  Oh, I know, Owners don't like players saying where they will or won't play.  But they have dangled him for 2 years now.  It's just another Owner/GM mismanagement if you ask me.  

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

For shame placing Pablo Lopez fourth in the rotation. Have you no decency sir? 😬😁 I'm mildly teasing but if that's the spot we find ourselves in life will be good in Ft Myers next spring, so long as our health holds out.

 

For now outside of seeking wins toward a run, my questions are 1) How must more Conner Prielipp are we going to see this season and in what role. 2) Will we be pushing Joe hard toward either playoffs or impressing potential suitors this winter? 3) Will we stretch out Rojas to become a starter by 2027, and will we shrink Zebby's workload toward becoming a reliever in 2027 or even in the playoffs in 26?

Yeah, I'd happily accept Pablo reclaiming his spot atop the rotation.

The Zebby/Rojas situation is one of the most frustrating things right now. Zebby absolutely has to be in the pen, and I think he'll be great there. Rojas is BARELY on pace to match his innings total from last year. 

I don't in any way want to take the fun out of 2026 for anyone, but the rotation is on tilt and the young hitters who will need to fill out the middle of the lineup need reps, and I also think they need to experience an exciting but ultimately fruitless end to the season to be ready for next year. And some of those young hitters are still sitting in St. Paul. I'm not going to be happy if they continue to make decisions this year that are going to negatively impact next year when next year looks like they could be legit. 

[chpettit19]

10 minutes ago, MikeNC said:

I have an other theory that I've been saying for 2 years.  It is that Joe Ryan is human.  News Flash: JOE DOES NOT WANT TO BE HERE.  If you read carefully every word he said LY it was clear he wanted to be traded to a contender last year at trade deadline.  Didn't happen, pitching goes lethargic.  Then he's expecting to be traded this offseason.  Nope.  But he figures this team is a disaster, and will be a seller at TY trade deadline and so he pitches well hoping again to be traded to a contender.  No again.  Pitching immediatly goes lethargic.  Have you noticed that when one of his teammates makes an error his next pitches tend to go right down the middle until one lands in the seats?  Oh, I know, Owners don't like players saying where they will or won't play.  But they have dangled him for 2 years now.  It's just another Owner/GM mismanagement if you ask me.  

If Joe Ryan wanted out he could've forced his way out pretty easily. I don't buy this for a second. If Joe Ryan demanded a trade last deadline, Joe Ryan would've been traded. If Joe Ryan demanded a trade this offseason, Joe Ryan would've been traded. If Joe Ryan demanded a trade this deadline, Joe Ryan would've been traded.

The Twins aren't stubbornly holding a disgruntled player for multiple years. I have no expectation that Joe will re-sign here, but if he wanted out so badly, he'd be out.

[mnfireman]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If Joe Ryan wanted out he could've forced his way out pretty easily. I don't buy this for a second. If Joe Ryan demanded a trade last deadline, Joe Ryan would've been traded. If Joe Ryan demanded a trade this offseason, Joe Ryan would've been traded. If Joe Ryan demanded a trade this deadline, Joe Ryan would've been traded.

The Twins aren't stubbornly holding a disgruntled player for multiple years. I have no expectation that Joe will re-sign here, but if he wanted out so badly, he'd be out.

All of this, and if he were to get a reputation for tanking his performance if he is unhappy he would be out of the league in a minute.

He may get upset and lose focus, but that is more of a maturity thing than any thing else.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, Coach said:

I'm going to pile on; the headline is unfair to Joe.

As the person on editing duty today, I'll wear this. The way I read it (and the way I'm sure Cody meant it) was "Joe Ryan's inability to hold up in the second half year after year puts the Twins in a tough spot." But I can see how it would read as unfairly accusatory. Obviously he's not trying to break down like this time and again.

[howeda7]

I would still sign him to an extension. Albeit at a slight discount from where I would have been 3 weeks ago.

2027: $18 million (a ~$6 million premium on what he'd make in arbitration)

2028: $20

2029: $22

2030: $24

Total: 4 years/$84 million

[Linus]

Yea I don’t get the premise either. Joe is trying as hard as he can - this is who he is. The only “tough spot” is an ownership / FO group that changes their organizational direction as often as a bad lefty reliever.