Why Another Twins Trade Deadline Selloff Doesn’t Make Sense

[LewFordLives]

There is absolutely no way they can be sellers if they are still in the playoff picture. In addition to the reasons mentioned in the article, it would further alienate the fan base. Ownership needs to show that we're not just going to be a farm club for the bigger markets.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

47 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

No. Not enough.

Trade Calculator. 
Ryan 46. For Tolle 62

Twins +16. 
 

See i am ok with an overpay and for me this is enough of an overpay. It’s why I wanted to see people opinion and how realistic they are. Red Sox likely do not do this trade.  

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Trade Calculator. 
Ryan 46. For Tolle 62

Twins +16. 
 

See i am ok with an overpay and for me this is enough of an overpay. It’s why I wanted to see people opinion and how realistic they are. Red Sox likely do not do this trade.  

Fair. I got him and another pitcher confused. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Fair. I got him and another pitcher confused. 

Like I said I don’t trade anyone and take my chances and see we can get to the playoffs, a chip and a chair philosophy.  If Jeffers does well down the stretch a comp pick is all but guaranteed and worth more than anything we can get in a trade. If Ryan can be strong down the stretch and get a playoff win and maybe top 3 cy young he is still worth around 40-46.  Math and Milwaukee philosophy says 1 year left is the time to trade.  

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Like I said I don’t trade anyone and take my chances and see we can get to the playoffs, a chip and a chair philosophy.  If Jeffers does well down the stretch a comp pick is all but guaranteed and worth more than anything we can get in a trade. If Ryan can be strong down the stretch and get a playoff win and maybe top 3 cy young he is still worth around 40-46.  Math and Milwaukee philosophy says 1 year left is the time to trade.  

We disagree on Jeffers. But I understand why they'd keep Ryan thru the year. 

[TL]

3 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Another thought; when Buxton comes back, it's very much a numbers game. Even if they trade Larnach (for example) the outfield then is Roden/Martin, Buxton and Keaschall right now. That's perfectly fine, right? But IF Jenkins comes up (which I do think happens at some point) then you do have to think about the idea of moving Bell to ensure that the outfield mix can all take turns dh'ing right? Not that they have to move Bell, but I could see the idea of it depending on the return.

Anyway, lots of moving parts too, so trading some guys with the intention of making room for players that are ready also makes sense.

 

Send Martin down or out. Jenkins in left and Roden/Keaschall platoon.  

[Sjoski]

If the current roster on the field isn't a serious contender, holding onto players just to finish third in one of baseballs weakest division is pointless.

[Cory Engelhardt]

20 minutes ago, TL said:

Send Martin down or out. Jenkins in left and Roden/Keaschall platoon.  

I can’t see Keaschall as a platoon to be honest 

[LyleCole]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Only in retrospect were the 1987 Twins so good. The 1986 Twins finished 71-91. Only the Texas Rangers and Florida Marlins faced longer odds than the '87 Twins. Virtually nobody picked them. Was it different? Yes, 1987 was in the 20th Century. The government had NASA and now in the 21st century NASA has been largely privatized to become SpaceX (making a blatantly/openly illegal immigrant quite wealthy), which is the new normal. Yes, things are different. You know that and so do we all. Change happens. Let's just try to enjoy the rest of the current season. It's all good.

Not exactly true because their core players were very good and everyone knew it.   They lacked a closer.  They lacked a bullpen, and their starters did not have good seasons in 1986, including Viola.

The fact that nobody picked them doesn't make them a bad team that was well tailored for the post season that only required them to win one series to get to the World Series.   They also gained an advantage because in the playoffs series they were given home field advantage by rotation which really helped them, especially in the World Series facing a NL team that had never played there before.

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Trade Calculator. 
Ryan 46. For Tolle 62

Twins +16. 
 

See i am ok with an overpay and for me this is enough of an overpay. It’s why I wanted to see people opinion and how realistic they are. Red Sox likely do not do this trade.  

Is this from baseball trade values? If you look at that site, they say that while Tolle has extra surplus value, this Is not a trade that would ever happen in real life because of the realities of trading an established Frontline starter for a guy who essentially still a prospect. Boston would have to add pieces, potentially top 100 prospect pieces to make this an even trade in their view. I’m curious because everything I read says that Boston would have to add significant pieces to Tolle to get Ryan. Maybe I’m looking in the wrong place. What is your source?

[LyleCole]

Again, here is the deal.  If the Twins ownership is willing to add significantly to their payroll budget, for example signing Ryan Jeffers and Joe Ryan to market value free agent contracts AND add other higher cost free agents, not the bargain basement players they usually add to fill out the roster, then they should stand pat at the trade deadline and perhaps add an arm or two if they can make a cheap deal.

But if that is NOT the case, dump everyone who is going to be lost at the top of their value right now, gain prospects to use in the rebuild.

If rooting to make the 3rd wild card and getting swept in the playoffs is your kind of team, I guess the Twins and their spendthrift ownership are for you.  

[DocBauer]

It's very simple but yet complicated at the same time.

If the Twins come out of the break playing the same way they have been playing, you're hoping for a 10-6 record that not only puts them above .500, not only has them grabbing a hold on the 6th WC playoff spot, but has them in contention to win the ALC.

This is absolutely true unless a couple of teams suddenly go on a hot streak and mess everything up.

If the Twins suddenly fall asleep after all the good work they have done the past couple of months and suddenly go 6-10, they have pretty much lost their chances for playoff competition and things change. 

So ALL of the various articles about sell, or buy, or both, are kind of frivolous until we see how the next 2 or 2 1/2 weeks ACTUALLY turn out.

A team in contention seldom deals quality ML players. IF they do, they are trading for prospects. COULD the Twins trade Jeffers for prospects,  but ALSO trade prospects for bullpen help and still "survive" without him? Based on the last month plus, the answer is probably yes. It would be sort of a conviluted 3 team deal where we move prospects for bullpen help, but gain some prospects back. 

IF we're in contention, do we trade Larnach, during his best season, and have someone ready to replace him? Is Roden ready? Maybe. Is Keaschall ready? Maybe. But that's a lot of maybe for a team in contention. 

But it's really nonsense to discuss until we see how the next couple of weeks play out.

IF we keep playing good ball and winning, it's possible Jeffers is resigned or given the QO offer for one year. It's possible we trade for a couple solid BP pieces. 

We need something to talk about during the break. And I get that. But I think there are more interesting topics to discuss than ANOTHER potential trade OP.

How about we just see how the next couple of weeks go?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Is this from baseball trade values? If you look at that site, they say that while Tolle has extra surplus value, this Is not a trade that would ever happen in real life because of the realities of trading an established Frontline starter for a guy who essentially still a prospect. Boston would have to add pieces, potentially top 100 prospect pieces to make this an even trade in their view. I’m curious because everything I read says that Boston would have to add significant pieces to Tolle to get Ryan. Maybe I’m looking in the wrong place. What is your source?

Those are the values in the trade calculator and I’ve never seen any qualifiers, the values are to get you in the ballpark. 

[saviking]

If we want to stay in the hunt we need to trade for 2 relievers. 

We can keep Ryan and trade him in the off season

But we won while Jeffers was out and have to catchers behind him. Jes, we would be better with Jeffers but, If we don't help the bullpen then even if we backed our way into post season we aren't going anywhere. 

[Twinsrtheworst]

43 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

If the current roster on the field isn't a serious contender, holding onto players just to finish third in one of baseballs weakest division is pointless.

So you think we are finishing 3rd in our division? C’mon. Is this a real prediction? That sounds like a loser mentality.. If we add a piece, I’m betting we not only win the division, but the first rd as well., then who knows? Like how many prospects do you need? This year has been exciting baseball. Who is against excited to watch  meaning games. You know what prospects get you, a higher graded farm systems, lower payroll for the owners. And let’s face it, It is  high odds that you ended up with lesser players than you traded, Most won’t make an impact, let alone a franchise altering impact. You just lower the payroll.. is that the goal?

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Valuation wise it’s a massive overpay for the Red Sox. 5 years of a #2 or better pitcher for a top 5 pitcher in the game for a year and 2 months. 

 

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

No. Not enough.

Both these positions could be true.  I could see both teams turning thumbs down at this trade deadline.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Sjoski said:

If the current roster on the field isn't a serious contender, holding onto players just to finish third in one of baseballs weakest division is pointless.

The '23 Twins were one game under .500 at the All-Star Break.  They finished July one game above.  They sneaked into a division title and fans had some fun in two home games before getting cut down to size by Houston.

The fact the FO then completely fumbled the positive PR potential for strengthening the relationship with the fanbase, with stupidities like "right-sizing the payroll", doesn't detract from the potential for good by trying during this very down year for the AL as a whole and a non-juggernaut Central division.

Mortgage the future?  No.  Redeploy assets?  Yes please.

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Only in retrospect were the 1987 Twins so good. The 1986 Twins finished 71-91. Only the Texas Rangers and Florida Marlins faced longer odds than the '87 Twins. Virtually nobody picked them. Was it different? Yes, 1987 was in the 20th Century. The government had NASA and now in the 21st century NASA has been largely privatized to become SpaceX (making a blatantly/openly illegal immigrant quite wealthy), which is the new normal. Yes, things are different. You know that and so do we all. Change happens. Let's just try to enjoy the rest of the current season. It's all good.

I'm not telling you something you don't already know, but we're talking about a playoff field of 4 vs 12 teams. 

You can still enjoy the remainder of the season after shrewd moves are made right? The "anything can happen," mentality is what has kept this team locked into mediocrity or worse for the last few years. 

[1985Fan]

This buy or sell argument all boils down to the next 2 weeks. If they keep winning series, they need to buy. If not, then sell and build up for next season. They should not sell if they are in contention, even though the ALC and AL are watered down this year. The whole point of playing the games is to get to the postseason! 

[ashbury]

14 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

The "anything can happen," mentality is what has kept this team locked into mediocrity or worse for the last few years. 

The "right-size the payroll" mentality is what has kept this team locked into mediocrity or worse for the last few years. 

[HarmonK03]

6 hours ago, TL said:

Send Martin down or out. Jenkins in left and Roden/Keaschall platoon.  

What has Roden done that would give him AB's over Keaschall.

[TL]

1 hour ago, HarmonK03 said:

What has Roden done that would give him AB's over Keaschall.

That’s a fair point and I’d be more than happy to not have a straight platoon and instead Keaschall gets like 70% of the starts. Roden acts more like a 4th outfielder that is playing against tougher righties and when we want to get another OFer a day off, which would likely mean he is starting over half the time anyway.

But like others have said, his minor league track record shows he *should* be able to hit in the majors.

[JBK]

Don't trade Bell just for the sake of him being a FA DH.  He's producing!  He's also a reason we're winning.  Same with Larnach.  Makes no sense if we're winning and close.  Larnach is under $6M, pocket change in today's MLB.  Take the chance.  Don't break up the core.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

11 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Another thought; when Buxton comes back, it's very much a numbers game. Even if they trade Larnach (for example) the outfield then is Roden/Martin, Buxton and Keaschall right now. That's perfectly fine, right? But IF Jenkins comes up (which I do think happens at some point) then you do have to think about the idea of moving Bell to ensure that the outfield mix can all take turns dh'ing right? Not that they have to move Bell, but I could see the idea of it depending on the return.

Anyway, lots of moving parts too, so trading some guys with the intention of making room for players that are ready also makes sense.

 

It DOES make sense. Larnach finally has some trade value, so I think the Twins need to trade him this season. Not only do we have Jenkins waiting in the wings, but also Rodriguez and Mendez. Too many cooks in the kitchen. 

[HarmonK03]

45 minutes ago, TL said:

That’s a fair point and I’d be more than happy to not have a straight platoon and instead Keaschall gets like 70% of the starts. Roden acts more like a 4th outfielder that is playing against tougher righties and when we want to get another OFer a day off, which would likely mean he is starting over half the time anyway.

But like others have said, his minor league track record shows he *should* be able to hit in the majors.

I think they are in a tough spot with Roden.  He has done nothing in his short time in the majors with both the Twins and Toronto.  But he has had 170 AB's which is the same Martin has had over May and June.  And many have said that Martin is not an every day player based on this, so is Roden who actually has not hit as well as Martin worth more of a look.  Right now the only outfielder I would force into the lineup is Jenkins.  I don't think Roden has earned it, and like you said he might be more of a fourth outfielder at best.

[HarmonK03]

The Twins do have an interesting situation with their outfielders.  They have five outfielders in St. Paul that will probably be ready to play up here between now and early 2028 at the latest.  And that doesn't include Wallner and Fedko.  And if you add Keaschall and Roden to this mix, there are 7 players competing for basically two spots.  Buxton is not going anywhere and Larnach and Martin are still here.

So if you add in the DH spot as a place to rotate players thru, you have three spots.  Yes they may not want to give up on this year but they are going to have to make some decisions, either now or this offseason.  First not everyone of those guys will live up to expectations and may bomb completely.  But how are they going to clear space by either moving players currently on the big league roster, i.e. Larnach and Bell.  Or who do they trade of that group to strengthen other areas of the roster.  And can they self scout well enough to move the right players, which has been a weakness of this organization.

Even when everyone is healthy, they don't have enough AB's to go around at St. Paul and players will stagnate.  And right now I don't think playing Mendez or Gonzalez at 1B is an option other than as backups.  I am not moving off of Lewis unless he falls back the second half of the season.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

8 hours ago, Sjoski said:

If the current roster on the field isn't a serious contender, holding onto players just to finish third in one of baseballs weakest division is pointless.

I tend to agree and you make a valid point. Atlanta won with 2. Good starters, 3 bullpen arms and a rebuilt outfield. It shouldn’t have worked but it did. You are also not acknowledging that the twins could get as much or more for Jeffers by holding him through the season if things break right.

Ryan I would think trading now or in the offseason is fairly close in similar value.

[Major League Ready]

12 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I must disagree. Winners do not trade their best players at the trade deadline. Losers and mediocre teams do that.  Oh, you may say that "the Twins are already a loser this season, so why not trade for the future.?" My answer to that is it ain't over til the fat lady sings. 

Winning organization trade their best players at the deadline and in the off-season when they are not good in that given year.  What did St. Louis do this last off-season.  The brewers have 13 players on pace to have more than 1.5 WAR.  Seven were drafted and six were acquired as prospects. 

We are neither good nor bad so what do you do?  Let's just keep in mind that we would not even have Ryan or Duran had they followed your doctrine.  Let's keep in mind that Jeffers would make us a little better in a year when we are mediocre.  He could return a player that contributes for 6-7 years.

[TL]

47 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

there are 7 players competing for basically two spots.  Buxton is not going anywhere and Larnach and Martin are still here.

It would be a (great) problem to have if they could stay healthy, but Buck, E-Rod and Jenkins - your ideal starting 3 - have certainly shown injuries may follow them throughout their careers. I imagine there are enough at bats for Keaschall, Roden and one of Martin/Gonzalez/Mendez with injuries, DH, and other rest for the starters. 

I think we’ve all been very happy with Larnach’s bat this year, but with his expected ‘27 salary and sub par defense he looks like a guy who will be gone whether at trade deadline or the offseason. 

[TL]

23 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Let's just keep in mind that we would not even have Ryan or Duran had they followed your doctrine

That’s not accurate. Nobody is saying to not trade players if you’re BAD. But if you have a real chance to make the playoffs, especially after the last two years, you take it. And making a run may also lead to an increase in payroll next year - which will have a bigger benefit on winning than the prospect value you’d likely get for Jeffers and definitely for Bell.

Ryan will still be a valuable chip in the offseason regardless.