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Posted
Image courtesy of David Malamut (photo of Brandon Winokur)

Every prospect reaches a point where projection gives way to proof. For Brandon Winokur, that next step has arrived. Minnesota promoted the 21-year-old to Double-A Wichita after another intriguing stint at High-A Cedar Rapids. 

It isn't a promotion offered because he has answered every question about his game. Instead, it's an opportunity to answer one of the biggest questions remaining: whether one of the organization's highest-upside athletes can begin turning tantalizing tools into a complete package against upper-level competition. The Twins have always believed Winokur was worth the gamble. Now comes the biggest test of his young professional career.

A Rare Draft Profile

When the Twins selected Winokur in the third round of the 2023 MLB Draft, they weren't drafting a polished high-school hitter. They were betting on traits that simply don't come around very often. At 6-foot-6, Winokur was an unusual shortstop with flashes of all five tools. His size, athleticism, plus arm, power potential, and speed made him one of the more fascinating players in the draft class. Those same tools also came with significant questions about his hit tool and whether he would sign instead of honoring his commitment to Texas Tech.

Minnesota believed enough in the upside to offer him a $1.5-million signing bonus (essentially second-round money) to bring him into the organization. Since then, his professional career has looked much like evaluators expected: equal parts exciting and frustrating.

Flashes of the Ceiling

Winokur's first two full seasons have showcased why the Twins were willing to invest heavily. He's developed into one of the better athletes in the system, while proving he can stay on the infield much longer than many expected. When he was drafted, some scouts believed his size would quickly force a move off shortstop. Instead, his agility, flexibility, and athleticism have allowed him to continue handling the position while also seeing time at third base and all three outfield spots.

That defensive versatility dramatically raises his floor. Offensively, the power-speed combination has been impossible to ignore. Last season, he tied for the Midwest League lead with 17 home runs while stealing 26 bases. Few players in the organization possess that kind of raw power combined with above-average speed. The challenge has never been whether the power exists. It's getting to it consistently.

Throughout his career, Winokur's swing has produced too many pull-side ground balls and opposite-field flares, instead of hard contact in the air. The Twins have worked with him on adjustments designed to help him find the barrel more consistently and unlock the elite raw power that's been evident since high school.

Another Encouraging Season

Returning to High-A in 2026 wasn't the most exciting assignment, but it gave Winokur another opportunity to refine his approach. In 74 games with Cedar Rapids, he hit .252/.362/.421 with 13 doubles, two triples, 10 home runs, and 19 stolen bases in 25 attempts. Perhaps the most encouraging development was his improved plate discipline. His walk rate climbed to 12.6%, more than four percentage points better than last season, showing a more mature approach and improved strike-zone awareness. That's an important step for a hitter whose offensive value depends on getting into favorable counts.

However, the strikeout concerns remain. Winokur struck out in 29.4% of his plate appearances, nearly five percentage points higher than last season. His contact rate remains below 60%, highlighting the biggest obstacle standing between him and becoming an everyday major leaguer. 

Even so, there are reasons for optimism beneath the surface. More than 83% of his plate appearances came against pitchers older than him, but he produced an impressive .836 OPS against those opponents. Considering he spent the year facing more experienced competition, his offensive production becomes a bit more encouraging.

What Double-A Will Reveal

The jump to Double-A is often where prospect dreams become reality, or where flaws become impossible to ignore. For Winokur, it's less about the box score and more about the quality of his at-bats. Texas League pitchers will consistently attack the weaknesses that have followed him throughout his career. Elevated fastballs have given his long levers trouble, while quality breaking balls have exposed inconsistent pitch recognition. Those issues become far more pronounced against experienced upper-level pitchers capable of executing good game plans.

The Twins don't necessarily need him to eliminate strikeouts. Plenty of productive power hitters strike out at high rates. Instead, they need him to prove the contact can reach an acceptable level while continuing to impact the baseball when he does connect. If the swing decisions continue improving and the contact quality remains strong, the rest of his offensive profile starts to look much more realistic.

Even if he never develops into an everyday middle-of-the-order bat, Winokur's athleticism gives him multiple paths to contributing in the majors. He has the defensive versatility to play shortstop, third base, and all three outfield positions, including center field. His arm strength and range make him a legitimate late-inning defensive weapon, and his power against left-handed pitching could eventually carve out a valuable role.

The Next Step

Prospect development is rarely linear, especially for players with Winokur's profile. The Twins knew they were drafting one of the highest-risk, highest-reward players in the 2023 class. Three years later, both sides of that equation remain true. The tools still jump off the field. The athleticism is still exceptional. The power remains among the best in the organization.

Now, Double-A will determine whether the bat is beginning to catch up. If Winokur can make enough contact against more advanced pitching while continuing to control the strike zone, his ceiling becomes much more than an intriguing collection of tools. If the contact issues persist, his future may still be valuable, but likely in a versatile utility role, rather than as an everyday regular. Either way, Wichita represents the most important checkpoint of his professional career, and perhaps the clearest indication yet of what Winokur can ultimately become.


What does Winokur need to improve at Double-A? Leave a comment and start the discussion.


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Posted

What's next?  Expect he will spend the rest of this season and probably the start of next in Wichita.  Gives him time to work on those issues needing attention.  The kid is what, 21?  Has lots of time to refine his game, because his potential remains off the charts.

Posted

The "kid" has always creeped me out. These are grown adults. Like when Falvey called Kody Clemens a "kid" last year. Gross.

Aside from that, "he's only 21" rings hollow. He was a high school draft pick and this is his 4th year in the system as a professional baseball player a Major League Baseball development program. Experience and age need to be evaluated together. The kind of experience and polishing of talent which happens in MiLB systems is superior to college programs.

Winokur was good enough at Ft. Myers, but he didn't hit at Cedar Rapids across two years. The Twins are technically putting Winokur at SS 1/3 of the time because this front office doesn't care a bit about developing quality defense, he's in a "prove it" phase of his career. If he's able to hold his own at AA, he remains a lower level prospect. If he flops, he falls off the prospect radar.

Posted
1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

The "kid" has always creeped me out. These are grown adults. Like when Falvey called Kody Clemens a "kid" last year. Gross.

Aside from that, "he's only 21" rings hollow. He was a high school draft pick and this is his 4th year in the system as a professional baseball player a Major League Baseball development program. Experience and age need to be evaluated together. The kind of experience and polishing of talent which happens in MiLB systems is superior to college programs.

Winokur was good enough at Ft. Myers, but he didn't hit at Cedar Rapids across two years. The Twins are technically putting Winokur at SS 1/3 of the time because this front office doesn't care a bit about developing quality defense, he's in a "prove it" phase of his career. If he's able to hold his own at AA, he remains a lower level prospect. If he flops, he falls off the prospect radar.

Don't know how old you are, bean, and sure didn't want to 'creep you out.'  When you get to my age all these guys are kids.  The oldest of my kids is now her mid-60's, and I sure as heck aren't going to apologize for thinking of her and others as kids.

Posted

I would like them to stop playing him at SS. Seems like a waste, since I have a lot of trouble seeing him ever getting any time there if/when he makes it to MLB. 3B or CF are both real options though and would be an excellent result for the Twins, so why not let him focus there? (he obviously has the physical tools to succeed at a corner OF spot or 1B, but I feel pretty confident that he can learn 1B later if that's where they want to shift him.)

Get him off SS for good, keep him focused on being a hitter and developing consistency. Hopefully he can translate all those wonderful tool into production. AA seems like a reasonable spot for him...just not playing SS.

Posted
Just now, jmlease1 said:

I would like them to stop playing him at SS. Seems like a waste, since I have a lot of trouble seeing him ever getting any time there if/when he makes it to MLB. 3B or CF are both real options though and would be an excellent result for the Twins, so why not let him focus there? (he obviously has the physical tools to succeed at a corner OF spot or 1B, but I feel pretty confident that he can learn 1B later if that's where they want to shift him.)

Get him off SS for good, keep him focused on being a hitter and developing consistency. Hopefully he can translate all those wonderful tool into production. AA seems like a reasonable spot for him...just not playing SS.

This. Changing positions is mentally taxing. Stop putting him at short, where he will only ever play if Culpepper and Houston both fail. Which, if that happens, lots of bad things happened. 

Posted

In your 4th year as a professional, age to level is no longer much of a consideration. His numbers don't suggest he was dominating High A.  Moving him to double A was probably necessary but I agree with several posters, playing him at SS 1/3 of the time makes little sense. That suggests he isn't good  enough to be a full time shortstop. Take advantage of his athleticism and put him in centerfield. Hitting is what he needs to work on. Power isn't very useful if he can't get to it very often in games.

One of the problems with drafting project high school kids is that they are still kinda young when you need to put them on the 40 man roster to protect them from rule 5. He needs to show before then that he is more than a utility player.

Posted

Wichta as a team is batting a dismal .221. And the majority of the "good" batters have already advance to St. Paul. Not sure what is going on, as the pitching staff ahs an team era of 5.70 even afetr working in that more than 50 unearned runs have crossed the plate. 

Posted
3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

He hits like a utility player. Is that why they keep giving him reps at SS?

I believe the reason he is getting time at short is to maximize his asset value. If other teams deem him a legit SS prospect his potential trade value goes up. I don’t have a problem with him playing SS as he has legit SS tools unlike Martin or Q Young. 

Posted
2 hours ago, Jim H said:

One of the problems with drafting project high school kids is that they are still kinda young when you need to put them on the 40 man roster to protect them from rule 5. He needs to show before then that he is more than a utility player.

If he doesn’t show that he is more than a utility player by then there is little chance he gets selected in the rule 5 draft.

Posted
7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The "kid" has always creeped me out. These are grown adults. Like when Falvey called Kody Clemens a "kid" last year. Gross.

Aside from that, "he's only 21" rings hollow. He was a high school draft pick and this is his 4th year in the system as a professional baseball player a Major League Baseball development program. Experience and age need to be evaluated together. The kind of experience and polishing of talent which happens in MiLB systems is superior to college programs.

Winokur was good enough at Ft. Myers, but he didn't hit at Cedar Rapids across two years. The Twins are technically putting Winokur at SS 1/3 of the time because this front office doesn't care a bit about developing quality defense, he's in a "prove it" phase of his career. If he's able to hold his own at AA, he remains a lower level prospect. If he flops, he falls off the prospect radar.

Holy negative post on every single level.  If he holds his own in a league where he's 3 yrs younger than others he can only remain a low level prospect?  And MiLB is better at development than college?  Based on???

sorry someone called you a 'kid' at some point and it struck some odd chord, but it's not BW's fault.  I've been called much worse.

Posted
4 hours ago, Wedman13 said:

Holy negative post on every single level.  If he holds his own in a league where he's 3 yrs younger than others he can only remain a low level prospect?  And MiLB is better at development than college?  Based on???

sorry someone called you a 'kid' at some point and it struck some odd chord, but it's not BW's fault.  I've been called much worse.

Welcome to my ignore list.

Posted
8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Welcome to my ignore list.

Haha.  You gotta do what ya gotta do

1.)make negative statements about a 'young person'

2.)someone simply questions why

3.)response: "'you question me???? I'm ignoring you''

One could argue that's somewhat child-like (note, I did not say kid-like')  but feel free to ignore away!

I just happen to like big talent high upside guys.  I liked McCarty and Stahoviak, sano and Ryan Mills.  BW and Q Young happen to fit those molds.  Does my opinion make me right?  Heck no.  But I'm open to discussing why.  If ur not, it doesn't much impact me.  Enjoy your day

Posted
On 7/13/2026 at 8:42 AM, rdehring said:

What's next?  Expect he will spend the rest of this season and probably the start of next in Wichita.  Gives him time to work on those issues needing attention.  The kid is what, 21?  Has lots of time to refine his game, because his potential remains off the charts.

Exactly. He is only 21 years old. But I have a question. If there is a prolonged strike next year, will miner league baseball still play their season? 

Posted
9 minutes ago, saviking said:

Exactly. He is only 21 years old. But I have a question. If there is a prolonged strike next year, will miner league baseball still play their season? 

I believe minor leagues aren't a part of the union so yes they would, but if someone is on a 40 man roster they couldn't play.  I may be wildly wrong though

Posted

There's really nothing in Winokur's statistical profile to make anyone think he'll by anything other than an eventual cup of coffee.

First, repeating a league let's you know that you should ignore the positives in a stat line.  He's 21, repeating A+, and his K rate there is about 30%.  It's absurd that it's been ignored in his promotion to AA.

He's not age inappropriate, so there's that, but that K rate takes him out of the running for any hope we might otherwise have.

Posted
1 hour ago, twinstalker said:

There's really nothing in Winokur's statistical profile to make anyone think he'll by anything other than an eventual cup of coffee.

First, repeating a league let's you know that you should ignore the positives in a stat line.  He's 21, repeating A+, and his K rate there is about 30%.  It's absurd that it's been ignored in his promotion to AA.

He's not age inappropriate, so there's that, but that K rate takes him out of the running for any hope we might otherwise have.

False, especially with how the Minnesota Twins have treated prospects.  If you look at the Cedar Rapids A+ roster, of the 23 players that have played a game this season just three players are younger than Winokur and 15 are older.   Of the 25 players who have taken an AB for the Twins AA team, 24 are older.  On the Twins AA roster there isn't a pitcher who is less than 2 years older than Brandon.

While I am mostly from the more rush through the minors school than most, and the Twins, that does not mean every player should move through the system rapidly.  Development is the primary role of the minor league system, and an raw athlete like Winokur is precisely the type of player that can develop over time in the minors and players can improve on the weaknesses that he has.  

AS with most of these kids, there is a league level where their skills will reach their limits.  My prediction will be that WInokur will even repeat AA, which is the most important minor league development level, for a FULL season next year as a 22 year old (then only 18 of the 25 players would be older than him).   I think year will be his sink or swim year though.  

AS far as "statistical" profile, I again disagree.   He is an athlete playing multiple positions on the right side of the defensive spectrum who has hit 10+ home runs as a teenager, and in all of his stops in the minors.   Of course the strike out rate is a negative factor, but statistically his OBP has been improving as he moves through the levels.  

Do I think he is a sure shot?  Absolutely not.  The odds are against just about every one of these kids in the minor league system.  As I said, next season which should be a full season in AA (perhaps a late promotion to AAA) will be the telling point.  If he shows massive improvement then the potential for a full major league career exists.  A more mediocre year probably means a limited major league career at best.

The fact is, we have seen it before.  I would model Winokur's minor league statistical profile to Max Kepler's in all aspects (great athlete, developing baseball player).  Kepler spent a full season in low level short season rookie ball.  Then the next, in Rookie Ball at our old station Elizabethton.   Then, as a 19 year old he REPEATED rookie league.  A full year in A ball.  A full year in A+ ball.  Then, as a 22 year old at Chattanooga AA, he exploded and that triggered a pretty solid 12 years (and counting) major league baseball career.

 

Posted

Comparing Winokur to Kepler is something of a stretch.  Kepler was a 16 year old international free agent from Germany. Nobody thought there was any chance Kepler could move normally thru the farm system. Even compared to 16 year olds from Latin America, he had certainly played less competitive baseball growing up.

Still you are basically right in that even if his development isn't linear, his athleticism will give him chances to figure it out. You don't want to give up on talented athletes too soon. Cuddyer is an example of a talented athlete drafted as a shortstop who repeated a level, moved positions and basically took awhile to develop.

Still, he needs to make more contact then he does now to have much chance of being a major league regular.

 

Posted
51 minutes ago, Jim H said:

Comparing Winokur to Kepler is something of a stretch.  Kepler was a 16 year old international free agent from Germany. Nobody thought there was any chance Kepler could move normally thru the farm system. Even compared to 16 year olds from Latin America, he had certainly played less competitive baseball growing up.

Still you are basically right in that even if his development isn't linear, his athleticism will give him chances to figure it out. You don't want to give up on talented athletes too soon. Cuddyer is an example of a talented athlete drafted as a shortstop who repeated a level, moved positions and basically took awhile to develop.

Still, he needs to make more contact then he does now to have much chance of being a major league regular.

 

Their minor league arcs are almost identical.   The reason why Kepler repeated the rookie levels was he was a 16 year old European international signing.  But if you look at the year 18 curves with WInokur they are very similar TO DATE.

Kepler's big development off that curve was as a 22 year old in AA.   That set him up for a long major league career.

I am hoping for the same with WInokur, although it is never a certainty.

Posted

Winokur is one of my favorite prospects in the system due to his tantalizing athleticism and potential. Frankly, I'm a little surprised that anyone is "down" on him as a prospect at this stage in his career. (Yes, I know some of the contact concerns).

I'm not the biggest fan of "what if" because it's hard to predict and can lead down a rabbit hole. But I'm going to play that game regardless as I think it's appropriate. He was a top recruit and took extra $ to sign instead of going to Texas Tech, which is a decent school in a top baseball conference. While we DON'T have a crystal ball to see how he would have actually produced in college, with his overall athleticism and tools, it's not hard to predict he would have been a very good college player, displaying all the tools we know he possesses. 

Even if we assume there were some contact issues, those tools and extrapolated college production would have, more than likely, made him a 1st round pick for someone in the recently completed draft. I'd say a 2nd round pick at worst. So there would be an excited FO, and fan base, SOMEWHERE, really excited about such a toolsy top draft pick ready to enter their system at 21yo.

Considering how many/most teams handle recent draftees, he probably goes to A- for a couple of weeks and then finishes the season at A+. He PROBABLY begins 2027 at A+ with the idea of moving up to AA before the season is done.

As recent Twins examples, this would pretty much follow the likes of Keaschall, KC, and Houston.

Winokur didn't have an awful 2025, just a mediocre one as a 20yo at A+. That's still pretty young for any prospect. He went back, started painfully slow, and then got on a heater and really showed improvement. So the Twins feel he's ready to be challenged with, roughly,  half season at AA as a 21yo.

Any way you want to paint it, there aren't that many prospects who debut at AA as a 21yo. Are there more than there used to be with all the various changes that have taken place in MILB over the past few seasons with greater "pushes" of young talent? Absolutely. But most of those are TOP IL signings and TOP draft choices who's talent seemingly transcends normal development, even for great athletes like Winokur. Jenkins would be a recent Twins example.

So being "ready" for the AA challenge, in the Twins mind, for a 21yo that would have been drafted just last weekend if he went to college is pretty impressive if you ask me.

NOW, does any of this mean Winokur is going to reach MLB, much less be a STAR player? Absolutely not! He's still got to HIT at least decently. And he still hasn't unlocked his full power potential yet either. And I fully expect that he will spend most, perhaps all, of 2027 at AA as a 22yo. In what world is a powerful, speedy, strong armed athlete any kind of lost or poor prospect if he spends a season at AA as a 22yo? 

I'm a fan. I'm a hopeful believer. I actually think he might be the best CF in the system. But I'm not naive enough to believe he's anything close to a finished product. But with his POTENTIAL, I have ZERO problem with him spending 2027 at AA to just work more on contact and recognition, while honing his power stroke.

2028 he's at AAA as a 23yo still gaining experience and honing his abilities. That MIGHT even be ahead of schedule were he an actual draftee last weekend, but certainly not BEHIND. He's one injury or half a season from reaching the ML level.

Winokur K-ing 130-140 times and BB 75 times while being a 20-20 player, or better, and hitting .235 with an OB around .300-.315 with quality defense is a very good ballplayer, whether he's at 3B or CF. If he can hit in the .250-.260 range with a slightly higher OB%, he's probably an All Star.

But I admit he's got a long way to go. FIRST, he has to conquer AA over the next year and a half. Then he has to prove himself at AAA. Development is never linear. Hell, I'd be happy if he debuted and took a spot as a 24yo! In what world is that an "old" prospect with tons of talent and team control? 

Defensively, I've seen him play a tiny bit of SS. I've been amazed that a guy that big can reach the balls he can. And his arm is wicked strong. But he's just NOT going to be anything other than a mediocre ML SS. He's playing it less these days, but the Twins have a belief that playing some SS will only make a 3B or 2B that much better in the dirt. I get that in theory, but push back when someone like Winokur is CLEARLY a 3B or CF. Other than as a fill-in on some days, he should be concentrating on 3B and CF daily.

Again, I'm not putting the cart before the horse. He's got a lot to develop and prove yet. But I am so much more focused on what he CAN do, and MIGHT do, rather than what he hasn't yet polished. That's why he's a tantalizing 21yo getting his first taste of AA.

Posted
On 7/13/2026 at 9:22 AM, bean5302 said:

The "kid" has always creeped me out. These are grown adults. Like when Falvey called Kody Clemens a "kid" last year. Gross.

Aside from that, "he's only 21" rings hollow. He was a high school draft pick and this is his 4th year in the system as a professional baseball player a Major League Baseball development program. Experience and age need to be evaluated together. The kind of experience and polishing of talent which happens in MiLB systems is superior to college programs.

Winokur was good enough at Ft. Myers, but he didn't hit at Cedar Rapids across two years. The Twins are technically putting Winokur at SS 1/3 of the time because this front office doesn't care a bit about developing quality defense, he's in a "prove it" phase of his career. If he's able to hold his own at AA, he remains a lower level prospect. If he flops, he falls off the prospect radar.

He is 21 yo. Half way thru his 3rd full professional season.  He has plenty of time to become an extremely valuable big league player. His body is still filling out and his experience is still “a small sample size”.  
He may not be on Varsity until 2028 but that wont stop him from having a career that lasts until 2040 or so….

Posted
1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

He is 21 yo. Half way thru his 3rd full professional season.  He has plenty of time to become an extremely valuable big league player. His body is still filling out and his experience is still “a small sample size”.  
He may not be on Varsity until 2028 but that wont stop him from having a career that lasts until 2040 or so….

Yep!

He spends 2027 at AA as a 22yo.

Hopefully he does well enough to spend the last few weeks at AAA.

And then he's at AAA as a 23yo in 2028. He's now a hot start or injury away from a taste of MLB. But even if he's a late season call up, he's still on track.

And even if he's not ready for a full time Twins roster spot until he's 24yo in 2029, he's still a young prospect. He might surprise and "figure stuff out" before that and make a major leap. 

Or he could just be a super athletic ballplayer who just never figures it out. It happens all the time. 

But I have some belief in the "kid" to struggle a bit, but flash his potential, and look OK for his entry to AA. And I expect he goes back again to start 2027 at AA again. 

His future is in his own hands. But his talent is so tremendous that I'm still banking on him putting it all together and being ready for 2029 at the latest. 

Sometimes the "lightbulb" turns on all of a sudden. Sometimes the "lightbulb" never comes on beyond dim. I'm still betting on Winoker making it.

Posted
47 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Yep!

He spends 2027 at AA as a 22yo.

Hopefully he does well enough to spend the last few weeks at AAA.

And then he's at AAA as a 23yo in 2028. He's now a hot start or injury away from a taste of MLB. But even if he's a late season call up, he's still on track.

And even if he's not ready for a full time Twins roster spot until he's 24yo in 2029, he's still a young prospect. He might surprise and "figure stuff out" before that and make a major leap. 

Or he could just be a super athletic ballplayer who just never figures it out. It happens all the time. 

But I have some belief in the "kid" to struggle a bit, but flash his potential, and look OK for his entry to AA. And I expect he goes back again to start 2027 at AA again. 

His future is in his own hands. But his talent is so tremendous that I'm still banking on him putting it all together and being ready for 2029 at the latest. 

Sometimes the "lightbulb" turns on all of a sudden. Sometimes the "lightbulb" never comes on beyond dim. I'm still betting on Winoker making it.

He is so athletic and strong.  I believe he is the type that will work relentlessly to he the best as he grows into his body and craft. He gets a call up in 2028. Book it. 

Posted
9 hours ago, Fatbat said:

He is so athletic and strong.  I believe he is the type that will work relentlessly to he the best as he grows into his body and craft. He gets a call up in 2028. Book it. 

If athleticism, strength and work ethic was all that was important for players, we wouldn't see 95% of draft picks wash out without making an impact at the MLB level.

 

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