Tom Pohlad Said "Go Big or Go Home." Now He Needs to Actually Choose.

[farmerguychris]

One thing I hope they remember when evaluating trades - I don't believe having an extra year (2027) when either buying, or selling, will mean anything.  So don't pay extra in terms of prospects when acquiring someone with an extra year beyond this year under contract, and don't expect to get anything extra when holding out for the best offer if we decide to sell someone like Ryan - who still has an option for next year..... zero confidence next season will happen, so no real value to it.

[TheLeviathan]

58 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I don't think he has a done a press conference since the last one.  

Rare smart move by a Pohlad.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, MMBoys93 said:

How many WS have that trio of teams won while managing their resources well and not spending? You can compete without spending but none of those 3 have won a WS with that philosophy. As I’ve said many times, one team with a bottom half payroll has won a WS in the last 30 years. 

Well, I guess we know now .... can't win a World Series. That's one less thing to worry about. I accept my fate.

FWIW, I like watching the Twins play this year. I also enjoy watching Milwaukee too.

[CRF]

Hey...we just picked up Woo Suk Go...what more do ya want?

[Dman]

1 hour ago, TheLeviathan said:

This team is 3 games under .500 in a terrible AL with a negative run differential.  The word "competitive" is doing some heavy lifting in this thread.

I'm glad this has been a presentable season in 2026.  Truly.  Happy to win a series in New York!  

But you know what Twins team I'm also going to care about?  The 2027 one.  And 2028.  And as many more as I have on this earth.  Which is why I'm not going to chase false opportunities when it'd be better to keep loading up for future ones.  Trading Larnach, Jeffers, Ryan, Bell, Caratini and anyone else who isn't a likely part of 2028 is just good asset management and gives the best chance at ACTUAL contention.  

Sell - we have real, true sell-high guys that contenders need right now.  Let's do the smart thing not the emotional thing.

I am sympathetic to this view.  We have some nice assets having good years creating likely good to great value on the trade market. It's hard to pass that up for a chance at a wild card spot.

Still here are some things I've had  to come to consider since they have gotten close to .500.  There is no team in the American League this Twins team can't beat.  We have two high end arms in Ryan and Bradley with Maybe Prielipp and Matthews as solid pieces behind them.  The Twins Offense is the best in the American league and the pen can be fortified in the post season using starters in the pen or supplemented at the trade deadline. 

It's a strange year in that any team can beat any team in the AL.  The toughest two teams for the Twins have been Tampa who won some close games and Chicago who just played better than the Twins in those series.  The Twins have beaten the Yankee's, Houston, Texas Etc. so they seem just as likely to go on a run as any of those teams.

I remember that 1987 team going to Toronto to get pummeled in the playoffs and they pulled out a world series win with OK pitching and a great offense.  I don't know that I see this team beating the Dodgers or Atlanta, but they look like they can hang with anyone in the American league.

Point number 2.  Let's say they don't sell and it all falls apart and they miss the playoffs this year.  Next year they can bring it back with Ryan, Lopez, Bradley, Prielipp, Matthews with hopefully a healthy Abel and Rojas with time to strengthen the pen in the offseason.  They also will have plenty of young bats waiting in the wings if injuries strike there and the guys who got chances this year should be better next year after figuring some things out this year.  They could field a strong team in 2027 even if the season gets shortened.

So I am torn.  This team could slump just like the Yankee's have and this could all change at the end of the month, but as things stand they look about good as anyone else IMO.  Let's see if they can handle Cleveland and go from there.

 

[TheLeviathan]

14 minutes ago, Dman said:

I am sympathetic to this view.  We have some nice assets having good years creating likely good to great value on the trade market. It's hard to pass that up for a chance at a wild card spot.

Still here are some things I've had  to come to consider since they have gotten close to .500.  There is no team in the American League this Twins team can't beat.  We have two high end arms in Ryan and Bradley with Maybe Prielipp and Matthews as solid pieces behind them.  The Twins Offense is the best in the American league and the pen can be fortified in the post season using starters in the pen or supplemented at the trade deadline. 

It's a strange year in that any team can beat any team in the AL.  The toughest two teams for the Twins have been Tampa who won some close games and Chicago who just played better than the Twins in those series.  The Twins have beaten the Yankee's, Houston, Texas Etc. so they seem just as likely to go on a run as any of those teams.

I remember that 1987 team going to Toronto to get pummeled in the playoffs and they pulled out a world series win with OK pitching and a great offense.  I don't know that I see this team beating the Dodgers or Atlanta, but they look like they can hang with anyone in the American league.

Point number 2.  Let's say they don't sell and it all falls apart and they miss the playoffs this year.  Next year they can bring it back with Ryan, Lopez, Bradley, Prielipp, Matthews with hopefully a healthy Abel and Rojas with time to strengthen the pen in the offseason.  They also will have plenty of young bats waiting in the wings if injuries strike there and the guys who got chances this year should be better next year after figuring some things out this year.  They could field a strong team in 2027 even if the season gets shortened.

So I am torn.  This team could slump just like the Yankee's have and this could all change at the end of the month, but as things stand they look about good as anyone else IMO.  Let's see if they can handle Cleveland and go from there.

 

I think that's a totally reasonable position to be in.  One thing I'd point out with the 1987 comp...the playoffs looked a lot different then.  The Twins would have one hell of a gauntlet to survive to make the same kind of impact the 1987 Twins did just by virtue of how many more series they'd have to win.  

The other thing, as others have pointed out, is that waiting does not always guarantee the same opportunities.  Pablo was circled as a likely trade candidate this last winter and how'd that turn out for us?  The lockout uncertainty only adds another layer to the risk of holding on to these guys.

I understand where you're coming from, but to me the risk vs. reward calculation is pointing in a pretty clear direction.

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, amjgt said:

Never doubt a Twins fan's ability to find a negative in anything positive. 

You forgot to mention that all of these wins are hurting our 2027 draft position. 

C'mon...

Have half measures or indecisiveness not hurt this team the last few years? I mean the AL is incredibly watered down and we're talking about clawing back to .500 by the ASB....

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, clone52 said:

Lets have some fun trade ideas.

Joe Ryan to the Padres for Ethan Salas, Kash Mayfield, Jhoan De La Cruz
First example I saw on a site, not my idea.  Some of the shine has coome off of Salas but still great C prospect who would get called up right away.  Mayfeild is a really good LHP prospect.  De La Cruz is 18 in rookie ball.

Ryan Jeffers and Marek Houston to the Rays for Kevin Kelly and Brody Hopkins
I'd reach out to the Rays and Yankees for Jeffers and find the best offer.  Would be willing to add a prospect in order to get a better return.

Trevor Larnach and Gabriel Gonzalez to the Diamondbacks for Ryan Waldschmidt
D-backs need lefties (maybe Wallner?).  Larnach and Gonzalez probably isn't enough to get a Top 50 prospect, but could start the discussion.

Wallner, Mendez, Soto to Angel for Reid Detmers.

Find a couple of relief pitchers.

Lose: Ryan, Jeffers, Larnach, Wallner, Gonzalez, Houston, Mendez, Soto, 2 or 3 more Top 20 prospects
Return: Detmers, Kelly, Salas, Waldschmidt, Mayfield, De La Cruz, Hopkins

The return on all of these ideas seems light except for the deal for Detmers, which I love. Salas, Mayfield, and de LA Cruz are all at least 2 years away and the latter 2 haven't even hit AA yet. Ryan is worth more, a whole lot more. He's worth an established controllable MLB bat plus. Waldschmit is Gonzalez with a better defensive profile  so why both GG and Larnach? Hopkins would be a great get but Kelly is just ok, nothing that special, and giving up BOTH Jeffers and Houston is way too much. Hopkins and Kelly for Jeffers and someone like Sam Armstrong makes more sense to me. 

[rdehring]

Not interested in even thinking about what Pohlad has said.  Am interested in how they make this team better for the end of this season and for the future.  Both can be accomplished this month. 

My hope is they have a discussion with Jeffers agent about an extension.  Should he say no, or even hell no, Jeffers should be traded.  If he says let's talk, get it done.  Really liked Jeffers bat this year, but since he has been out the current duo is playing almost as well.  If Jeffers returns tomorrow and hits well for the next three weeks, the return could be substantial as there seem to be a few teams out there in contention who need catching.  Some like the Yankees, badly.  Hopefully, the return will be a young/youngish reliever who has at least a year plus experience and is pitching well.  If they need to add a mid-level prospect to get a very good reliever, do it.

The other position of strength is corner outfielders.  Wouldn't want to trade Larnach as that could really hurt their chances this year.  But the 2027 Twins have zero use of two fast, right-handed hitting corner outfielders who used to play second base.  My preference would be to keep Keaschall, so Martin would be my choice.  Can they get another reliever of value for him?  Imagine it depends on how he hits the next few weeks, but yesterday was a nice start.  Again, maybe he needs to be packaged with a mid-level prospect.

The third player who should be traded is Wallner.  A lot will depend on his continuing to hit long home runs the next few weeks and whether or not he is brought back for an audition.  A few weeks ago the return would have been 'future considerations.'  But the home runs are coming, so maybe there is hope for something.

[mrguy]

There are absolutely trades the twins can make that wouldn't end up sacrificing much. Even on the Major League level, even a guy like Cody Lawyerson, who fans might argue isn't really a guy the twins plan on being a major player for the foreseeable future, could probably net something(he was claimed on waivers last year by the angels before coming back here, so there are teams that could probably think they can work with a guy like him). Plenty of teams will absolutely take chances on debatably major league level talent for holes the twins might want to fill like their bullpen. The Rockies just did this trading away Angel Chivilli, who had a 7+ERA last year as a relief pitcher to get TJ RUMFIELD. The twins have areas where they have lots of guys in high minors all fighting for spots they aren't a top priority. If people are imagining a world where Jenkins, Rodriguez and Buxton are the primary outfielders, what does that say about the other like 5 outfielders in St. Paul who are all playing well enough to potentially be seen as big leaguers? I bet there is even a team that'd take a Kyler Fedko if they think they can unlock that last level for him.

Don't have to trade the whole farm for holes the twins want to fill, but I'm saying there are definitely pieces the twins could probably test the market with that wouldn't make a huge dent in their prospect pool or their major league roster. 

[amjgt]

8 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

C'mon...

Have half measures or indecisiveness not hurt this team the last few years? I mean the AL is incredibly watered down and we're talking about clawing back to .500 by the ASB....

People have many different opinions on last year's trade deadline, but I don't think anyone would call it a half measure. I'm not sure I've ever seen a Twins front office act MORE boldly (for better or worse).

Some people have a very binary view on what constitutes a successful season. If they aren't a legitimate contender for the title, then all moves should be made to make some future team more likely to be a contender for the title. Those people are viewing having a team hanging around .500 as a bad thing because they think it might result in not maximizing every possible 2026 resource for a theoretic 2027 or 2028 run. 

I just don't view it that way. Competing for titles is about more than accumulation of the maximum amount of future assets. And I view a season like 2026, that might end up with us battling for a playoff spot as a part of the process. In my view, punting on that opportunity for growth and partial success does more harm than good, on and off the field. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, amjgt said:

People have many different opinions on last year's trade deadline, but I don't think anyone would call it a half measure. I'm not sure I've ever seen a Twins front office act MORE boldly (for better or worse).

Some people have a very binary view on what constitutes a successful season. If they aren't a legitimate contender for the title, then all moves should be made to make some future team more likely to be a contender for the title. Those people are viewing having a team hanging around .500 as a bad thing because they think it might result in not maximizing every possible 2026 resource for a theoretic 2027 or 2028 run. 

I just don't view it that way. Competing for titles is about more than accumulation of the maximum amount of future assets. And I view a season like 2026, that might end up with us battling for a playoff spot, as a part of the process. In my view, punting on that opportunity for growth and partial success does more harm than good, on and off the field. 

Concur. And to circle back to your previous post, which I think is excellent, the sentence I bolded here is part of why I'm not that gung-ho on trading Jeffers. 

I get the argument about trading him so he doesn't walk away for nothing. But..., I'm not so sure that's still the right thing to do.

First, maybe I'm underselling things, but I'm not sure how much they are going to get for Jeffers. The Yankees are public in their desire for a catcher, but most contending teams have their catcher situation in a good spot. That's not to say that Jeffers wouldn't still improve nearly all of them, potentially even by adding him to their DH rotation, but a lot of teams are reluctant to mess with their pitcher/catcher mojo at this point in the season.

Additionally, the deadline is a little later this year -- the Twins have only 49 games following August 4. I'm assuming others have similar numbers. Even if he plays two days of three, that's only 33 games. You just don't get as many games out of a new catcher's bat as you do out of a new guy at another position. I get that in a postseason he could conceivably play more than two games out of three, but you also have to get there.

So what would the Twins actually get for Jeffers? For high-end relievers with many years of control (Duran, Jax), they got a couple of highly regarded prospects, including one starter that was ready or nearly MLB ready in Bradley and Abel. But I don't see a contending team giving up a controllable reliever that's helping them this year for 33 games of Jeffers. Again, maybe I'm underestimating, but I'm not sure they even get a single top 100 guy for 33 games of Jeffers. And I don't want a AA guy for him -- I want someone who is very likely to help in 2027. Otherwise, roll the dice and play for 2026.

Second, though Caratini and Jackson are two good vets (sorta, in Jackson's case), having a veteran catcher like Jeffers also helps in the development of young pitchers such as Bradley, Prielipp, Rojas, Adams, Peredes, Morris...

Combine those and it makes me wonder if a) his contribution to pitcher development over the remainder of the season and b) the message to the team, "We're going for it in 2026 by keeping Jeffers," might do more for their 2027 chances than the AA lottery pick they might get for him.

Third, if they are serious about trying to bring him back, I think they have a better chance of resigning him by saying, "Dangit, we don't want you to even smell what it's like being in another team's locker room -- we want you with us, giving us a shot and furthering relationships with our young pitchers" than they do by saying, "Good luck in New York, but we'd sure like to have you back if you're open to it."

I'll get the logic if they trade him, but I don't think it's a slam dunk to do so.

[clone52]

2 hours ago, jctwins said:

Serious question...does anyone else think Tom has been quiet since these initial comments as he's seen the difficulty in actually living up to them? I suspect he is wishing he had said that differently and is kind of learning the hard way why prior Pohlads have felt better just staying quiet.

Not really.  Has he had the opportunity yet to go big or go home?  The only way he doesn't live up to that comment is if the team does nothing, or next to nothing at the trade deadline.

Really the only trigger is either not getting any relief pitcher help or not trading Jeffers (and not signing him in the offseason).  Could say the same thing about Larnach.  Almost any other move has arguments either way.

[IndianaTwin]

46 minutes ago, amjgt said:

People have many different opinions on last year's trade deadline, but I don't think anyone would call it a half measure. I'm not sure I've ever seen a Twins front office act MORE boldly (for better or worse).

Some people have a very binary view on what constitutes a successful season. If they aren't a legitimate contender for the title, then all moves should be made to make some future team more likely to be a contender for the title. Those people are viewing having a team hanging around .500 as a bad thing because they think it might result in not maximizing every possible 2026 resource for a theoretic 2027 or 2028 run. 

I just don't view it that way. Competing for titles is about more than accumulation of the maximum amount of future assets. And I view a season like 2026, that might end up with us battling for a playoff spot, as a part of the process. In my view, punting on that opportunity for growth and partial success does more harm than good, on and off the field. 

It's easier to quote this one again than to go back to your previous. 😀

But from that one, I also concur that if they are even anywhere close, trading Ryan would be a huge mistake for the reasons you name. 

And on your last comment in that one about the other guys they might trade being low wattage, I agree there as well. I'd perhaps even put them in the same category as my comments on Jeffers in the previous, where the message it would send by trading really any veteran may not be worth the Single A guy they are going to get for Rogers, Bell, et. al.

You mentioned 22 games until the deadline. If they go something like 7-15, maybe I change my tune. But if they are even 9-13 and still within four games or so, I'm rolling the dice on 2026.

[weitz41]

Tom's idea of "go big or go home" could be a 1982 rusted out cargo van rather than a 2027 300K camper that sleeps 6, For all we know. 

Like a few others pointed out. We're in no man's land...So close...is it worth the shot?? 2027-28 makes more sense...But will we have similar offense?? We should go for it! No wait we shouldn't...It's a really fine needle to thread to take a shot and still build for 2027 and beyond. IDK if Zoll is up to it.

I think if it was me making these discissions. I'd (like some others have said) start with trying to extend Jeffers. If it gets done that is great the current team and the future I want to get to. If not, trading to whoever give me the best AA-AAA pitchers that I can hope are starters but have reliever K rates on 2 pitches. I'm keep Caratini, no matter which way Jeffers goes.

The team seems to be finally facing reality when it comes to who plays where. Can they do that with the 25-corner outfielders and 12 DH's they have? (relax I'm exaggerating!) Is Wallner going to haunt us like Rooker, or God forbid Big Pappi?? Larnach? Should we move Martin maybe Keashall, Royce?? Trade one or some of our AAA corner out fielders?

I'm for moving Wallner (we aren't going to get much) Larnach, one of Martin/Keashall and I'd look at what I can get for E Rod.  E Rod and his lack options belongs on a team like Colorado or say the Angels if the sell. He should get the team help now and for 2027 and beyond.

Ryan. I'm not moving him if I plan to compete in 2027. If let's say the A's offer Leo De Vries, Brewers offer Jesus Made or the Dodger offer Josue De Paul. I'd have to trade him for 2027 and beyond. Any of those are extremely unlikely.

Wow I rambled on quite a bit.

[clone52]

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

The return on all of these ideas seems light except for the deal for Detmers, which I love. Salas, Mayfield, and de LA Cruz are all at least 2 years away and the latter 2 haven't even hit AA yet. Ryan is worth more, a whole lot more. He's worth an established controllable MLB bat plus. Waldschmit is Gonzalez with a better defensive profile  so why both GG and Larnach? Hopkins would be a great get but Kelly is just ok, nothing that special, and giving up BOTH Jeffers and Houston is way too much. Hopkins and Kelly for Jeffers and someone like Sam Armstrong makes more sense to me. 

This seems like a classic situation of overvaluing Twins players and undervaluing other teams players.

If they can get more for Ryan, they will.  It was a proposal I saw on a site and it isn't way out there.  Salas is still a Top 50 prospect and should be ready next year.  Mayfield seems like a really nice prospect.

In my proposal, we wouldn't be targeting near term replacements for Ryan. 

I don't know WAldschmit but saw he was ranked highly.  MLB.com has him as 28 overall.  Higher than Emmanuel Rodriguez.  No one is getting him for 1/2 a season of Larnach.

Additionally, Jeffers is not getting a great pitching prospect like Hopkins plus a solid MLB reliever.  I don't think adding Armstrong is going to make that happen.  Jeffers and Armstrong for Hopkins might work, but probably not.  I mean, would you trade Prielipp or Morris or Abel for 1/2 season of Jeffers and Armstrong?  I sure hope not.

[clone52]

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

Not interested in even thinking about what Pohlad has said.  Am interested in how they make this team better for the end of this season and for the future.  Both can be accomplished this month. 

My hope is they have a discussion with Jeffers agent about an extension.  Should he say no, or even hell no, Jeffers should be traded.  If he says let's talk, get it done.  Really liked Jeffers bat this year, but since he has been out the current duo is playing almost as well.  If Jeffers returns tomorrow and hits well for the next three weeks, the return could be substantial as there seem to be a few teams out there in contention who need catching.  Some like the Yankees, badly.  Hopefully, the return will be a young/youngish reliever who has at least a year plus experience and is pitching well.  If they need to add a mid-level prospect to get a very good reliever, do it.

The other position of strength is corner outfielders.  Wouldn't want to trade Larnach as that could really hurt their chances this year.  But the 2027 Twins have zero use of two fast, right-handed hitting corner outfielders who used to play second base.  My preference would be to keep Keaschall, so Martin would be my choice.  Can they get another reliever of value for him?  Imagine it depends on how he hits the next few weeks, but yesterday was a nice start.  Again, maybe he needs to be packaged with a mid-level prospect.

The third player who should be traded is Wallner.  A lot will depend on his continuing to hit long home runs the next few weeks and whether or not he is brought back for an audition.  A few weeks ago the return would have been 'future considerations.'  But the home runs are coming, so maybe there is hope for something.

Agree with you about Jeffers whole heartedly.

Disagree about corner OF.  Martin won't bring much at all and Larnach will turn into a pumpkin most likely.  Sell him if you can get someone to overpay.  Keaschall, Martin, Jenkins, Clemens could all possibly fill those corner outfield spots better than Larnach if he does regress.

Agree on Wallner.  Not sure when he is a free agent, but might be willing to give him another shot if they deal Larnach.  If someone makes a good offer though, I'd definitely trade him.

[clone52]

27 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Concur. And to circle back to your previous post, which I think is excellent, the sentence I bolded here is part of why I'm not that gung-ho on trading Jeffers. 

I get the argument about trading him so he doesn't walk away for nothing. But..., I'm not so sure that's still the right thing to do.

First, maybe I'm underselling things, but I'm not sure how much they are going to get for Jeffers. The Yankees are public in their desire for a catcher, but most contending teams have their catcher situation in a good spot. That's not to say that Jeffers wouldn't still improve nearly all of them, potentially even by adding him to their DH rotation, but a lot of teams are reluctant to mess with their pitcher/catcher mojo at this point in the season.

Additionally, the deadline is a little later this year -- the Twins have only 49 games following August 4. I'm assuming others have similar numbers. Even if he plays two days of three, that's only 33 games. You just don't get as many games out of a new catcher's bat as you do out of a new guy at another position. I get that in a postseason he could conceivably play more than two games out of three, but you also have to get there.

So what would the Twins actually get for Jeffers? For high-end relievers with many years of control (Duran, Jax), they got a couple of highly regarded prospects, including one starter that was ready or nearly MLB ready in Bradley and Abel. But I don't see a contending team giving up a controllable reliever that's helping them this year for 33 games of Jeffers. Again, maybe I'm underestimating, but I'm not sure they even get a single top 100 guy for 33 games of Jeffers. And I don't want a AA guy for him -- I want someone who is very likely to help in 2027. Otherwise, roll the dice and play for 2026.

Second, though Caratini and Jackson are two good vets (sorta, in Jackson's case), having a veteran catcher like Jeffers also helps in the development of young pitchers such as Bradley, Prielipp, Rojas, Adams, Peredes, Morris...

Combine those and it makes me wonder if a) his contribution to pitcher development over the remainder of the season and b) the message to the team, "We're going for it in 2026 by keeping Jeffers," might do more for their 2027 chances than the AA lottery pick they might get for him.

Third, if they are serious about trying to bring him back, I think they have a better chance of resigning him by saying, "Dangit, we don't want you to even smell what it's like being in another team's locker room -- we want you with us, giving us a shot and furthering relationships with our young pitchers" than they do by saying, "Good luck in New York, but we'd sure like to have you back if you're open to it."

I'll get the logic if they trade him, but I don't think it's a slam dunk to do so.

I think the Yankees and Rays are the 2 possible destination for Jeffers.  If they go full rebuilding, getting AA prospects is okay.  Otherwise I think you package Jeffers with a prospect or 2 to try and get something a little better in return.

I think I'd prefer they sign and keep him though.

[Andy MacPhail]

52 minutes ago, Dman said:

I am sympathetic to this view.  We have some nice assets having good years creating likely good to great value on the trade market. It's hard to pass that up for a chance at a wild card spot.

Still here are some things I've had  to come to consider since they have gotten close to .500.  There is no team in the American League this Twins team can't beat.  We have two high end arms in Ryan and Bradley with Maybe Prielipp and Matthews as solid pieces behind them.  The Twins Offense is the best in the American league and the pen can be fortified in the post season using starters in the pen or supplemented at the trade deadline. 

It's a strange year in that any team can beat any team in the AL.  The toughest two teams for the Twins have been Tampa who won some close games and Chicago who just played better than the Twins in those series.  The Twins have beaten the Yankee's, Houston, Texas Etc. so they seem just as likely to go on a run as any of those teams.

I remember that 1987 team going to Toronto to get pummeled in the playoffs and they pulled out a world series win with OK pitching and a great offense.  I don't know that I see this team beating the Dodgers or Atlanta, but they look like they can hang with anyone in the American league.

Point number 2.  Let's say they don't sell and it all falls apart and they miss the playoffs this year.  Next year they can bring it back with Ryan, Lopez, Bradley, Prielipp, Matthews with hopefully a healthy Abel and Rojas with time to strengthen the pen in the offseason.  They also will have plenty of young bats waiting in the wings if injuries strike there and the guys who got chances this year should be better next year after figuring some things out this year.  They could field a strong team in 2027 even if the season gets shortened.

So I am torn.  This team could slump just like the Yankee's have and this could all change at the end of the month, but as things stand they look about good as anyone else IMO.  Let's see if they can handle Cleveland and go from there.

 

On paper, we probably have the worst team in years. Yet if we had a bona fide high-leverage RP to start the season, we'd be one of the top teams in the AL if not the top, We could have done that if Falvey had traded for one this offseason or better yet not traded Varland. We are in this position because the problem was never the players.

IMO, the Twins had 3 problems to solve. #3 clutch hitting- they got their 1st walk-off about a week ago & they are becoming a feisty group. #2 Bad INF- All of the INFers have been moved off their original positions & have become a competent core with Culpepper, who could be ready to come up soon. #1 horrific BP- throw crap at the wall, isn't the way to really build a competitive BP. Gomes & even Morris is ok, but we still we need a bona fide high-leverage RP. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

9 minutes ago, clone52 said:

This seems like a classic situation of overvaluing Twins players and undervaluing other teams players.

If they can get more for Ryan, they will.  It was a proposal I saw on a site and it isn't way out there.  Salas is still a Top 50 prospect and should be ready next year.  Mayfield seems like a really nice prospect.

In my proposal, we wouldn't be targeting near term replacements for Ryan. 

I don't know WAldschmit but saw he was ranked highly.  MLB.com has him as 28 overall.  Higher than Emmanuel Rodriguez.  No one is getting him for 1/2 a season of Larnach.

Additionally, Jeffers is not getting a great pitching prospect like Hopkins plus a solid MLB reliever.  I don't think adding Armstrong is going to make that happen.  Jeffers and Armstrong for Hopkins might work, but probably not.  I mean, would you trade Prielipp or Morris or Abel for 1/2 season of Jeffers and Armstrong?  I sure hope not.

I think you are misunderstanding me and way undervaluing what you want to trade. Remember, most prospects don't pan out and you're trading established above average to elite (Ryan) MLB players. The issue is the market. I think you're undervaluing the market for Ryan. I think he's worth an established MLB reliever plus a top 50 prospect. You're trading him for all prospects and ones that either have flaws or are at least 2-3 years away. Salas has an extensive injury history and couldn't hit at the AA level until the last month, Mayfield has had shoulder issues, but is dominating at A+, and De La Cruz is 19 and in the Dominican Summer League.  I think Ryan is worth a lot more, but if that's all he will fetch, there's no reason to trade him. Keep him and try again in the off season. It's better for this year's team and you can get that level of return in the off season.  I'd be fine with trading Larnach and a prospect for Waldschmit, but not a high end prospect like GG. 

Jeffers is the harder call as a quality rental who's gone in 2027.  I've seen Jeffers for Kyle Carr and Kaeden Kent, two of the Yankees top 20, or Jeffers and Rogers for Carlos Lagrange and Rafael Flores, or for Henry LaLane and Jace Avina. Jeffers alone is worth Hopkins plus and Hopkins alone is worth less than what the Yankees are supposedly willing to do.  

I see another real problematic issue for the Twins. The team is actually performing fairly well and the league and the division are both weak. They have a chance to play some meaningful, exciting games in August and September if they keep playing this well. That is a difficult scenario to trade away from because it energizes the fan base, restores some faith in the team and ownership, and shows confidence in the players you have, many of whom you need to re – sign in the next year or two. That alone is enough reason not to trade Ryan unless you are blown way and the package you have isn't close to that. You have to trade Jeffers so there you probably have to take what you can get. You don't have to trade anybody else unless you get quality back.

Now if they win 10 or less of the 22 games to the trade deadline, trade away.   

[weitz41]

9 minutes ago, Andy MacPhail said:

On paper, we probably have the worst team in years. Yet if we had a bona fide high-leverage RP to start the season, we'd be one of the top teams in the AL if not the top, We could have done that if Falvey had traded for one this offseason or better yet not traded Varland. We are in this position because the problem was never the players.

IMO, the Twins had 3 problems to solve. #3 clutch hitting- they got their 1st walk-off about a week ago & they are becoming a feisty group. #2 Bad INF- All of the INFers have been moved off their original positions & have become a competent core with Culpepper, who could be ready to come up soon. #1 horrific BP- throw crap at the wall, isn't the way to really build a competitive BP. Gomes & even Morris is ok, but we still we need a bona fide high-leverage RP. 

Thankfully the AL, by win percentage, is the worst it's been in recent memory. which makes for an interesting trade deadline for the AL. Varland would make it 3? good arms in the BP. He has 2.8 WAR for the season. So, we'd be at .500. 2 or you 3 reasons would still be true and this BP getting it to Varland would likely reduce is save opportunities and WAR. We're not 1 Varland away. More like another Morris and Gomez plus Varland.

[amjgt]

59 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Concur. And to circle back to your previous post, which I think is excellent, the sentence I bolded here is part of why I'm not that gung-ho on trading Jeffers. 

I get the argument about trading him so he doesn't walk away for nothing. But..., I'm not so sure that's still the right thing to do.

First, maybe I'm underselling things, but I'm not sure how much they are going to get for Jeffers. The Yankees are public in their desire for a catcher, but most contending teams have their catcher situation in a good spot. That's not to say that Jeffers wouldn't still improve nearly all of them, potentially even by adding him to their DH rotation, but a lot of teams are reluctant to mess with their pitcher/catcher mojo at this point in the season.

Additionally, the deadline is a little later this year -- the Twins have only 49 games following August 4. I'm assuming others have similar numbers. Even if he plays two days of three, that's only 33 games. You just don't get as many games out of a new catcher's bat as you do out of a new guy at another position. I get that in a postseason he could conceivably play more than two games out of three, but you also have to get there.

So what would the Twins actually get for Jeffers? For high-end relievers with many years of control (Duran, Jax), they got a couple of highly regarded prospects, including one starter that was ready or nearly MLB ready in Bradley and Abel. But I don't see a contending team giving up a controllable reliever that's helping them this year for 33 games of Jeffers. Again, maybe I'm underestimating, but I'm not sure they even get a single top 100 guy for 33 games of Jeffers. And I don't want a AA guy for him -- I want someone who is very likely to help in 2027. Otherwise, roll the dice and play for 2026.

Second, though Caratini and Jackson are two good vets (sorta, in Jackson's case), having a veteran catcher like Jeffers also helps in the development of young pitchers such as Bradley, Prielipp, Rojas, Adams, Peredes, Morris...

Combine those and it makes me wonder if a) his contribution to pitcher development over the remainder of the season and b) the message to the team, "We're going for it in 2026 by keeping Jeffers," might do more for their 2027 chances than the AA lottery pick they might get for him.

Third, if they are serious about trying to bring him back, I think they have a better chance of resigning him by saying, "Dangit, we don't want you to even smell what it's like being in another team's locker room -- we want you with us, giving us a shot and furthering relationships with our young pitchers" than they do by saying, "Good luck in New York, but we'd sure like to have you back if you're open to it."

I'll get the logic if they trade him, but I don't think it's a slam dunk to do so.

And I’ll keep beating the “we might just give Jeffers the QO” drum, even though most people dismiss it out of hand. 

People seem to think that he’ll automatically accept it. Perhaps, but here’s two things worth thinking about:

1) A high end catcher on a 1 year deal (even if it’s 23m) has value. I’d guess the Yankees would be more than happy with that this year.

2) With a lockout it might not be $23M. That matters more than just “we actually only owe him $15m for the 2/3rds of the season that actually gets played. The bigger impact is on whether Jeffers accepts the QO. At $23M he might think that the big AAV is worth the risks of 1 more year of wear and tear on his body before he hits free agency. But if that $23M get prorated, then the idea of locking in for 4 more seasons at like $15M per sounds a lot more appealing because his actual earning potential on a QO might actually only be $15M anyway (or something close to it)

Because of those two things not only do I think that having him accept the QO might not be such a bad thing, but also I think it’s probably less likely that he accepts it than people think. 

This also falls under the category of “we’ll know more in 22 games” because if he’s looking anything like his pre-injury self, I think a QO is better than a 50/50 chance. And if you think you might be giving him a QO, then that has a big impact on what you do with him (or Caratini - who might all of sudden become tradable) at the deadline

[DJL44]

The Twins are on a knife edge tipping point right now and what they do might come down to what they are offered. If New York decides they absolutely need to make the World Series and offer Lombard, Rodriguez, Lagrange and Hess for Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers then the Twins will sell. The Dodgers and Brewers have enough talent to make stupid offers as well. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, amjgt said:

And I’ll keep beating the “we might just give Jeffers the QO” drum, even though most people dismiss it out of hand. 

People seem to think that he’ll automatically accept it. Perhaps, but here’s two things worth thinking about:

1) A high end catcher on a 1 year deal (even if it’s 23m) has value. I’d guess the Yankees would be more than happy with that this year.

2) With a lockout it might not be $23M. That matters more than just “we actually only owe him $15m for the 2/3rds of the season that actually gets played. The bigger impact is on whether Jeffers accepts the QO. At $23M he might think that the big AAV is worth the risks of 1 more year of wear and tear on his body before he hits free agency. But if that $23M get prorated, then the idea of locking in for 4 more seasons at like $15M per sounds a lot more appealing because his actual earning potential on a QO might actually only be $15M anyway (or something close to it)

Because of those two things not only do I think that having him accept the QO might not be such a bad thing, but also I think it’s probably less likely that he accepts it than people think. 

This also falls under the category of “we’ll know more in 22 days” because if he’s looking anything like his pre-injury self, I think a QO is better than a 50/50 chance. And if you think you might be giving him a QO, then that has a big impact on what you do with him (or Caratini - who might all of sudden become tradable) at the deadline

Brace yourself for the "Disagrees," because you are going to get them. I sure have when I've broached the idea of a QO on Jeffers. 😀

But you won't get one from me. Again, I don't think it's a slam dunk to give him one, but we're on the same page here as well in at least considering it.

Let's say $16M is the "right" amount for a one-year deal on a catcher of Jeffers' ilk. I think it's really hard to have a competitive team without having an overpay somewhere. It's just impossible to get all 26 contracts right. Right now, the Twins don't have any overpays, unless you count the money they are eating on Correa. In fact, they have a bargain in Buxton, a fair-to-bargain deal on Lopez if he comes back healthy, a fair price on Caratini and everyone else on arb or pre-arb contracts.

So if you are going to make an overpay to get/keep someone, overpaying $7M for one year on one of the best-hitting catchers in the majors seems like a good place to do it.

That's if he takes it.

If he doesn't, we don't know what a new CBA will do to the concept of comp picks, but in the current structure, there's a pretty decent chance Jeffers signs elsewhere for more than $50M total. Again, I may be underestimating Jeffers' worth, but I'm not sure a comp pick is much of a downgrade from what they will get for 33 games of him in a trade (see previous note for the explanation on why I say 33 games).

I'm not sure they can make the decision to make a QO on Jeffers before the trade deadline, but you also have an interesting point that his saying "yes" would change the calculus on Caratini's (or even Jackson's) availability to other teams in the offseason.   

[1985Fan]

I think they should wait before going all in, one way or another, until July 23. They will have completed two series with Cleveland and one with the Cubs. If they are competitive and have a winning record through this stretch of games, then they have a shot at the playoffs. If not, then playoff hopes are dashed and start selling to prepare for 2027 and beyond. It would be great if they could swing a “small” trade right now to boost the BP for this critical stretch (Wook Suk Go signing notwithstanding). Give them some arms to take down Cleveland. 
In no way should a team with a chance at the playoffs in today’s baseball world be sellers. Any team can get hot at the right time and make a deep run. Like Tug McGraw said, “ You gotta believe!” 

[Andy MacPhail]

31 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

Thankfully the AL, by win percentage, is the worst it's been in recent memory. which makes for an interesting trade deadline for the AL. Varland would make it 3? good arms in the BP. He has 2.8 WAR for the season. So, we'd be at .500. 2 or you 3 reasons would still be true and this BP getting it to Varland would likely reduce is save opportunities and WAR. We're not 1 Varland away. More like another Morris and Gomez plus Varland.

My point is we needed an anchor in the BP. How many games we were winning & the BP lost them? How many close games we lost because of the BP? So, IMO, the possible games won could be much greater than the Varland's 2.8 WAR that was analyzed. Even going forward with promising RPs, we need an anchor. If we do, IMO, we'll make the postseason.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, CRF said:

Hey...we just picked up Woo Suk Go...what more do ya want?

Go Suk Woo.

[Hubie29]

And to think all we have on our roster from all those deadline trades is Taj Bradley. 

[Hubie29]

12 minutes ago, Andy MacPhail said:

My point is we needed an anchor in the BP. How many games we were winning & the BP lost them? How many close games we lost because of the BP? So, IMO, the possible games won could be much greater than the Varland's 2.8 WAR that was analyzed. Even going forward with promising RPs, we need an anchor. If we do, IMO, we'll make the postseason.

Andy, nice of you to chime in on Twins Daily!