Tom Pohlad Said "Go Big or Go Home." Now He Needs to Actually Choose.

[clone52]

I think there are 3 options and you could "go big" in all 3 directions.

Option 1 - Sell off:  This might make sense, especially if they are worried about the labor dispute in 2027.  Start off by saying Buxton is staying.  He doesn't want to leave and no reason for the Twins to push him out the door.
Obvious Trade Candidates:  Jeffers, Ryan, Larnach, Wallner, Bell, Rogers
Others Candidates: Lopez - I don't think they'd get much and would rather see if he was interested in a 1 year extension.  He is owed $21.75M and see if he'd be willing to make that around $30M for 2027 and 2028.
Caratini - Trading him would leave the cupboard too bare at C
Ober - Value has dropped, still cheap and let him try and build it back up
Lewis - Value has dropped, looking a lot better and still cheap
Clemons - Maybe trade him if you are blown away and if you think the clock will strike midnight and he will turn into a pumpkin.  I'd keep him, though.  Low cost utility player at worst.  But with Culpepper ready to come up and Houston close too, maybe you don't actually need that.  He is a tough case.

Option 2 - Buy: Don't overpay for the top bullpen guys but maybe go the next level down.  Try to get another solid SP.
Untouchables: Jenkins, Culpepper, Tait, probably some pitchers
Candidates: Jeffers (if you can't resign him), Larnach, Wallner, Emmanuel Rodriguez, maybe 1 decent pitching prospect

Option 3 - Emulate the Rays.  Try to boost the bullpen, SP and lineup while trading guys you don't see a long term future with.
Candidates: Jeffers, Ryan, Lopez, Larnach, Wallner, definitely Clemens, Martin
Surprising Candidates: Minor League Depth (Houston, 1 or 2 of Hill, Soto, Rojas, Quick, Raya) (1 or 2 of Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Mendez, Winokur etc), Keaschall, Lee, etc.

[Nshore]

Tom Pohlad better be careful what he says.  His statements get repeated hundreds of times for months afterward.  Reminds me of my ex.

Going full sell mode as some want would further damage their reputation with the fans after the team is finally giving them some HOPE.  As with most things, the middle ground is probably best - sell a little, buy a little.

 

[MMBoys93]

19 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

There really wasn't much to buy in 2023. The two names that flooded Twins Daily were Jordan Montgomery and Rhys Hoskins. There is mythology involved. There were missed opportunities to trade players.

Jeffers could be traded or kept as they may see value in his talent on the team through the remainder of the season. Ryan is under contract through 2027 so not a free agent. There is no hurry on Ryan and it would be foolish to trade him unless the offer is a major return of talent.

I'm choosing hope for more competitive rosters. Others will cheer for losses.

No one is cheering for losses, I’m simply hopeful for a consistent competitive team. Trading part of the future away to say a Hail Mary for a team that’ll likely be ranked 24th in payroll or worse come next year is dumb. 
 

there are ways beyond free agency to increase payroll to contend. The Pohlad’s chose to cut almost 30 million after winning a playoff series and did nothing to boost the roster. There’s nothing that tells me they’ll own the Twins any differently moving forward.

As for Ryan, I don’t want them to trade him either but there’s likely a lockout next year that severely impacts your potential to deal him after this trade deadline.
 

Teams that don’t spend letting good free agents leave knowing you’re not resigning them is the formula to perennial 90 and 100 loss teams. 

[MMBoys93]

More and more the twins ownership and front office’s decisions and talk remind me of the Mets minus the money. 
 

thats a scary place to be lol 

[Linus]

 Couple of thoughts. First what Tom Pohlad says doesn’t matter. The Pohlad family has a history of making statements mostly for PR purposes not to give real information to the fan base. Second, very few trades happen at this point in the season so the idea that we can make moves right now isn’t supported by history. We have at least a month or 5 weeks before teams are willing to make trade decisions. Chances are the realities of the Twins situation will be much clearer then. 

[amjgt]

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

I really, really thought a trip to Yankee Stadium was going to end all this. But no, baseball is a goofy game. Should have remembered that.

Worst possible scenario is to lose key prospects while trading for ineffective arms. All while letting valuable trade chips rot away on a team that falls short of the WC.

They're headed in that general direction. Rough waters ahead.

Never doubt a Twins fan's ability to find a negative in anything positive. 

You forgot to mention that all of these wins are hurting our 2027 draft position. 

[tony&rodney]

7 minutes ago, MMBoys93 said:

Teams that don’t spend letting good free agents leave knowing you’re not resigning them is the formula to perennial 90 and 100 loss teams. 

While I am all in on spending for really talented effective players, it is talent not money that wins. Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and Milwaukee lead the way. They allow free agents to walk, when it suits them. Management remains important. I'm encouraged by the changes taking place this season. 

After the All Star break, we may see some positive moves in the first days of August. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, RedLeg44 said:

This bullpen has been so bad it doesn’t take much imagination to view this team in a +500 light. This bullpen has easily cost them 6 games this season which would put them in 1st place in the division. 2 league average releavers here are likely the difference. 
 

Most everyone would be lobbying to buy or stand pat if that was the case. Go get two “average” relievers with minimal impact to the farm system and roll the dice. 
 

Some are saying it’s not worth it if your not a true contender…how about just giving your young guys a taste of a playoff race, maybe a first round playoff series, gain the experience and develop a true hunger to get back to that point. Build some positive momentum for a change.

There is value in that too, just harder to quantify.
 

What young guys? This is an old team. 

[Mike Sixel]

27 minutes ago, Nshore said:

Tom Pohlad better be careful what he says.  His statements get repeated hundreds of times for months afterward.  Reminds me of my ex.

Going full sell mode as some want would further damage their reputation with the fans after the team is finally giving them some HOPE.  As with most things, the middle ground is probably best - sell a little, buy a little.

 

What fans? They are down in attendance again. 

[clone52]

2 minutes ago, Nshore said:

Tom Pohlad better be careful what he says.  His statements get repeated hundreds of times for months afterward.  Reminds me of my ex.

Going full sell mode as some want would further damage their reputation with the fans after the team is finally giving them some HOPE.  As with most things, the middle ground is probably best - sell a little, buy a little.

 

I think you can still "go big" with the middle ground as well.  Twins have some depth that could be seen as selling while actually buying and staying in playoff contention this year.  I haven't spent a ton of time thinking about putting names on trades, but its an intriguing option.  I think there are two big questions that have to be answered.

1.  Can they, and do they want to sign extensions for Ryan and Jeffers?  Do either of them want to stay?  Jeffers is bigger priority, as if you keep him, you lose him for nothing.  They could keep Ryan and think more this offseason and next year.

2. How bad are things labor wise?  Will next year be a bust.

For fun, I'm going to assume Ryan and Jeffers wants to test free agency no matter what.  I'll also assume the labor situation resolves so next season is not lost.

I think the Twins have outfield depth, especially left handed.  Buxton is staying.  Martin, Clemens, Keaschall, Larnach and Wallner all have MLB experience now.  Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez,  Mendez are all close to MLB ready.  Even Winokur is probably not too far off.   Jenkins is the ONLY player from that list I would make off limits.  I would 100% trade Larnach and Wallner (in almost any scenario this year).  I might sell high on Clemens.  I wouldn't complete gut the minors, but I'd trade 1 or 2 of Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Mendez and Winokur.

I'd trade Jeffers and Joe Ryan for sure.  Likely giving you more prospects that could be used in other deals. 

I would target MLB ready or near MLB ready SP, plus a plethora of RP options (not the top guys).   I wouldn't take Marek Houston off the table, or 1 or 2 of the top minor league pitching prospects.

I would also consider MLB upgrades.  What would it take to pry Jeremy Pena for 2 years from Houston?  Or 3 years of CJ Abrams from the Nationals?  How about 3 years of Reid Detmers or Jose Soriano fromo the Angles?  The return from the Ryan trade might be more than enough to get 2 more years of either of them.

If you use Keaschall or Lee in a trade, the cost of an Arraez reunion wouldn't be to cumbersome.

Michael Wacha wouldn't be a bad option to backfill a Joe Ryan trade.

I'd go bargain basement shopping on relief pitchers in trades.  Don't want to overpay for a top guy, either in the trade or the dollars.  Obviously anything they could get would be an upgrade this year.

 

[clone52]

21 minutes ago, MMBoys93 said:

No one is cheering for losses, I’m simply hopeful for a consistent competitive team. Trading part of the future away to say a Hail Mary for a team that’ll likely be ranked 24th in payroll or worse come next year is dumb. 
 

there are ways beyond free agency to increase payroll to contend. The Pohlad’s chose to cut almost 30 million after winning a playoff series and did nothing to boost the roster. There’s nothing that tells me they’ll own the Twins any differently moving forward.

As for Ryan, I don’t want them to trade him either but there’s likely a lockout next year that severely impacts your potential to deal him after this trade deadline.
 

Teams that don’t spend letting good free agents leave knowing you’re not resigning them is the formula to perennial 90 and 100 loss teams. 

I wonder what a shortened season would do for Ryan's value next year.  Lets say they have to shorten it to 120 games.  Crazy stuff can happen in a shortened season.  Ryan would be fresher and could be worth a lot to a team trying to take a 1 year shot at a championship.

For that matter, maybe the Twins should keep him for that same reason.  At least until next summer deadline.

[strumdatjag]

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I'll bite on actually proposing a trade rather than just dissing the owner family (who deserves it, by the way). I live in SoCal and my son in Orange County is an Angels fan, poor guy. He says Soriano and Detmers are both potentially available in trades. as are Bachman and Yates in the bullpen. The Angels contention window is at least 3 years out and they're looking for young, controllable hitting. Here are the candidates:

Jose Soriano (27 yo RHSP) - 8-5, 3.42 ERA, 111 SOs in 100 IP, 26.2 SO%, 1.32 WHIP, 4.01 FIP, Arb eligible 2027, FA 2029.

Reid Detmers (27 yo LHSP) - 3-6, 4.13 ERA, 117 SOs in 104 IP, 27.1 SO%, 1.11 WHIP,  3.08 FIP, Arb eligible 2027, FA 2029.

Sam Bachman (26 yo RHRP) - 1-1, 3.26 ERA, 39 SOs, 38.2 IP, 24.4 SO%, 1.19 WHIP, 4.40 FIP, Arb 2027, FA 2031.  

Kirby Yates (39 yo RHRP) - 0-3, 2.75 ERA, 28 SOs, 19.2 IP, 35.4% SO%, 2.96 FIP, one year deal.  

Proposed deals - Alan Roden or G Gonzalez plus Kala'i Rosario, Ben Ross, or Matt Wallner and an A or AA pitcher (Sam Armstrong?) for Detmers and one of the two relievers. Basically they can have 2 position players other than Culppeper, Jenkins, Emma or Mendez plus an A or AA guy for one of the two starters and one reliever. I like Detmers better than Soriano but would take either. Getting the starter improves the bullpen because that's where Paredes goes. I'd obviously rather have Bachman at age 26 than Yates at age 39 but would take Yates if the prospect return was lesser. 

What do you think? 

You have the general idea.   Sell some of  out strengths and acquire at positions where we are weak. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, clone52 said:

I wonder what a shortened season would do for Ryan's value next year.  Lets say they have to shorten it to 120 games.  Crazy stuff can happen in a shortened season.  Ryan would be fresher and could be worth a lot to a team trying to take a 1 year shot at a championship.

For that matter, maybe the Twins should keep him for that same reason.  At least until next summer deadline.

It all depends on the offers for me. If they get a great offer, I think they have to deal him. If they don't, I understand keeping him thru the end of this year. 

[clone52]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

What young guys? This is an old team. 

If the Twins make the playoffs, I think you'd have Jenkins and Culpepper on the roster.  Possibly Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Mendez or Roden.  Keaschall and Lee are young.  Maybe Sabato gets a shot.  If they trade Jeffers, maybe Cardenas or Banuelos or Olivar gets a shot.
From a pitching standpoint, Taj Bradley, Rojas, Morris, Matthews, Prielipp, Raya.  Maybe Quick even. Abel, Festa, Paredes.

Lots of potential young players and potential future building blocks that could get experience.

[clone52]

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I'll bite on actually proposing a trade rather than just dissing the owner family (who deserves it, by the way). I live in SoCal and my son in Orange County is an Angels fan, poor guy. He says Soriano and Detmers are both potentially available in trades. as are Bachman and Yates in the bullpen. The Angels contention window is at least 3 years out and they're looking for young, controllable hitting. Here are the candidates:

Jose Soriano (27 yo RHSP) - 8-5, 3.42 ERA, 111 SOs in 100 IP, 26.2 SO%, 1.32 WHIP, 4.01 FIP, Arb eligible 2027, FA 2029.

Reid Detmers (27 yo LHSP) - 3-6, 4.13 ERA, 117 SOs in 104 IP, 27.1 SO%, 1.11 WHIP,  3.08 FIP, Arb eligible 2027, FA 2029.

Sam Bachman (26 yo RHRP) - 1-1, 3.26 ERA, 39 SOs, 38.2 IP, 24.4 SO%, 1.19 WHIP, 4.40 FIP, Arb 2027, FA 2031.  

Kirby Yates (39 yo RHRP) - 0-3, 2.75 ERA, 28 SOs, 19.2 IP, 35.4% SO%, 2.96 FIP, one year deal.  

Proposed deals - Alan Roden or G Gonzalez plus Kala'i Rosario, Ben Ross, or Matt Wallner and an A or AA pitcher (Sam Armstrong?) for Detmers and one of the two relievers. Basically they can have 2 position players other than Culppeper, Jenkins, Emma or Mendez plus an A or AA guy for one of the two starters and one reliever. I like Detmers better than Soriano but would take either. Getting the starter improves the bullpen because that's where Paredes goes. I'd obviously rather have Bachman at age 26 than Yates at age 39 but would take Yates if the prospect return was lesser. 

What do you think? 

I like these ideas.  Soriano and Detmers could be decent Joe Ryan replacements (if they trade him) and likely cost less than Ryan returns.

I would not make Emmanual Rodriguez or Mendez off limits (maybe for these guys, but not in general).  Both lefty outfielders and outfield could definitely be crowded the next several years (Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins, Gonzales, Rodan, Mendez, Winokour, not to mention Clemens and Martin filling in gaps if you keep them).

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, clone52 said:

If the Twins make the playoffs, I think you'd have Jenkins and Culpepper on the roster.  Possibly Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Mendez or Roden.  Keaschall and Lee are young.  Maybe Sabato gets a shot.  If they trade Jeffers, maybe Cardenas or Banuelos or Olivar gets a shot.
From a pitching standpoint, Taj Bradley, Rojas, Morris, Matthews, Prielipp, Raya.  Maybe Quick even. Abel, Festa, Paredes.

Lots of potential young players and potential future building blocks that could get experience.

I admire your thoughts here, even if I don't think it likely!

[IndianaTwin]

Welp, here goes Jim Bowden again...

"...if I were [the Twins], I would see what I could get for Joe Ryan, Taylor Rogers, Kody Clemens, Royce Lewis, Tristan Gray, Victor Caratini and Josh Bell. I would even talk to Byron Buxton to see if he would waive his no-trade clause if I could deal him to either the Braves or Yankees.

 

Ryan as the "best fit" for the Braves, Lewis for the Marlins, Jeffers for the Yankees. His next paragraph is on the Royals. I'm surprised he didn't mention that Witt could get them a haul. 

[Vanimal46]

13 minutes ago, clone52 said:

I wonder what a shortened season would do for Ryan's value next year.  Lets say they have to shorten it to 120 games.  Crazy stuff can happen in a shortened season.  Ryan would be fresher and could be worth a lot to a team trying to take a 1 year shot at a championship.

For that matter, maybe the Twins should keep him for that same reason.  At least until next summer deadline.

Keeping Ryan brings on a big risk. Injuries happen, and we just saw a once durable Pablo Lopez lose both his 2025 and 2026 seasons and torpedoing his trade value. 

[Sjoski]

Last year, we traded away a solid bullpen: Duran, Jax, Stewart, Coulombe, and unfortunately, Varland.

Now we’re suffering from a self-inflicted headache, and the prescribed antidote is to go out and be a buyer?

2025 sellers 2026 buyers 2027 sellers?

This FO treats roster construction like a day trader chasing micro-trends.

[amjgt]

All of these potential scenarios are fun to talk about am I'm all for it, but the reality is, we have 22 more games before the trade deadline. That represents almost 1/3 of the remaining schedule (71 games left right now). So much can happen between now and then and what happens in those 22 games will shape the correct answer on "what should we do at the deadline."

I think if we're anywhere remotely close to a playoff spot, trading Ryan would be a terrible decision. I understand all of the "value" reasons why, but fans just don't care about that right now. And while we might get less for him in the offseason, we'd still have the ability to trade him for value then. Unless we really go in the tank over the next month, I'm a "no" on trading Joe Ryan at the deadline. 

I do think that no matter what position we are in, a story can be told for trading Jeffers. He's been awesome and I'll hate losing him, but the catchers have largely held their own in his absence and losing him for nothing in the offseason would be a tough blow. I could see Zoll saying this: "We made Jeffers what we felt was a competitive contract extension offer. He declined to accept it, which we respect. With Ryan becoming a free agent this offseason we felt it was imperative to the organization to get some value for him and we are thrilled with the players we got for him. Ryan leaving now does not preclude us from pursuing him as a free agent in the offseason"

We can do that while also adding players at the deadline. Both can make sense.

Almost all other potential trade candidates feel pretty low wattage compared to those two decisions and we've got 22 more games to figure out what the right answer for them is. 

[MMBoys93]

37 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

While I am all in on spending for really talented effective players, it is talent not money that wins. Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and Milwaukee lead the way. They allow free agents to walk, when it suits them. Management remains important. I'm encouraged by the changes taking place this season. 

After the All Star break, we may see some positive moves in the first days of August. 

How many WS have that trio of teams won while managing their resources well and not spending? You can compete without spending but none of those 3 have won a WS with that philosophy. As I’ve said many times, one team with a bottom half payroll has won a WS in the last 30 years. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Particularly given that with any of these who are pending free agents, we're looking at barely a third of a season if they wait all the way to the deadline. Jansen's $11M contract, for example, is already less than $5M and trickles down even further over time. 

You've apparently looked at the contracts enough to call them "expensive." Is Jansen's the largest in this list? Who else is up there?

(I'd add that Jansen hasn't exactly been Jansen so far this year. He'd still be a significant add, however.) 

Senzatela $12M with $14M club option for 2027
Estevez $11.1M per year until 2027 (yuck)

Jansen $11M expiring

Weaver $11M until 2027 (okay)

Minter $11M expiring

Pagan $10M until 2027 (yuck)

Finnegan $9.5M until 2027

Strahm $7.5M expiring

Johnson $6.5M ($8M mutual option)

Yates $5M expiring 

Ferguson $4.5M expiring

Vest $4M expiring

Schreiber $3.7M expiring

 

[DJL44]

As someone else mentioned, those expiring contracts will only have 33% remaining at the deadline. Adding three $10M relievers only costs $10M in added payroll. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Senzatela $12M with $14M club option for 2027
Estevez $11.1M per year until 2027 (yuck)

Jansen $11M expiring

Weaver $11M until 2027 (okay)

Minter $11M expiring

Pagan $10M until 2027 (yuck)

Finnegan $9.5M until 2027

Strahm $7.5M expiring

Johnson $6.5M ($8M mutual option)

Yates $5M expiring 

Ferguson $4.5M expiring

Vest $4M expiring

Schreiber $3.7M expiring

 

Thanks. Definitely some intrigue here.

• With 2027 control, I'd be surprised if Finnegan is available to a division rival. I've liked Vest in the past, but he's been bad this year. I wonder if the Twins would want to give something to a division rival. 
• Weaver was near the top of relievers I would have targeted in the offseason. Ditto on Yates. Yes, please, on both, but particularly on Weaver. 
• I've always liked Minter. Yes, please.

Those would be my three biggest targets. Jansen has been inconsistent, but he definitely brings swagger. 

 

[TheLeviathan]

This team is 3 games under .500 in a terrible AL with a negative run differential.  The word "competitive" is doing some heavy lifting in this thread.

I'm glad this has been a presentable season in 2026.  Truly.  Happy to win a series in New York!  

But you know what Twins team I'm also going to care about?  The 2027 one.  And 2028.  And as many more as I have on this earth.  Which is why I'm not going to chase false opportunities when it'd be better to keep loading up for future ones.  Trading Larnach, Jeffers, Ryan, Bell, Caratini and anyone else who isn't a likely part of 2028 is just good asset management and gives the best chance at ACTUAL contention.  

Sell - we have real, true sell-high guys that contenders need right now.  Let's do the smart thing not the emotional thing.

[clone52]

Lets have some fun trade ideas.

Joe Ryan to the Padres for Ethan Salas, Kash Mayfield, Jhoan De La Cruz
First example I saw on a site, not my idea.  Some of the shine has coome off of Salas but still great C prospect who would get called up right away.  Mayfeild is a really good LHP prospect.  De La Cruz is 18 in rookie ball.

Ryan Jeffers and Marek Houston to the Rays for Kevin Kelly and Brody Hopkins
I'd reach out to the Rays and Yankees for Jeffers and find the best offer.  Would be willing to add a prospect in order to get a better return.

Trevor Larnach and Gabriel Gonzalez to the Diamondbacks for Ryan Waldschmidt
D-backs need lefties (maybe Wallner?).  Larnach and Gonzalez probably isn't enough to get a Top 50 prospect, but could start the discussion.

Wallner, Mendez, Soto to Angel for Reid Detmers.

Find a couple of relief pitchers.

Lose: Ryan, Jeffers, Larnach, Wallner, Gonzalez, Houston, Mendez, Soto, 2 or 3 more Top 20 prospects
Return: Detmers, Kelly, Salas, Waldschmidt, Mayfield, De La Cruz, Hopkins

[clone52]

57 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Welp, here goes Jim Bowden again...

"...if I were [the Twins], I would see what I could get for Joe Ryan, Taylor Rogers, Kody Clemens, Royce Lewis, Tristan Gray, Victor Caratini and Josh Bell. I would even talk to Byron Buxton to see if he would waive his no-trade clause if I could deal him to either the Braves or Yankees.

 

Ryan as the "best fit" for the Braves, Lewis for the Marlins, Jeffers for the Yankees. His next paragraph is on the Royals. I'm surprised he didn't mention that Witt could get them a haul. 

Don't hate it.  Don't sell Buxton and don't sell low on Lewis.  If they knew they could sign Jeffers, trading Caratini is fine.  I think they could do this and still contend this year (due to the suckage of the AL).

[clone52]

59 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Keeping Ryan brings on a big risk. Injuries happen, and we just saw a once durable Pablo Lopez lose both his 2025 and 2026 seasons and torpedoing his trade value. 

Makes sense.  I also wouldn't hate if "going big" meant extending Ryan.

[jctwins]

Serious question...does anyone else think Tom has been quiet since these initial comments as he's seen the difficulty in actually living up to them? I suspect he is wishing he had said that differently and is kind of learning the hard way why prior Pohlads have felt better just staying quiet.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

9 minutes ago, jctwins said:

Serious question...does anyone else think Tom has been quiet since these initial comments as he's seen the difficulty in actually living up to them? I suspect he is wishing he had said that differently and is kind of learning the hard way why prior Pohlads have felt better just staying quiet.

I don't think he has a done a press conference since the last one.