Week in Review: Southern Heat

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Weekly Nutshell:
The Twins have battled their way back to relevance. Twelve days ago they were 30-38, seemingly slipping into also-ran territory, but they've since won eight of 11 to charge back into the wild-card picture and even the AL Central contention mix. The past week saw Minnesota take five of six behind dominant offensive showings in Texas and Arizona, moving within a few games of first place while complicating their status six weeks ahead of the trade deadline. 

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/15 through Sun, 6/21
***
Record Last Week: 5-1 (Overall: 38-41)
Run Differential Last Week: +24 (Overall: -18)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (3.5 GB) 

Latest Game Results

Game 74 | MIN 4, TEX 2: Pitchers Pull Through in Bullpen Game, Buxton and Bell Homer

• Bell: 2-4, HR, 3 RBI

Game 75 | MIN 12, TEX 2: Twins Notch Season-High 17 Hits in Front-to-Back Blowout

• Clemens: 2-4, HR, 3 RBI

Game 76 | MIN 9, TEX 3: Offense Keeps Adding to Early Lead, Securing 4th Straight Win

• Larnach: 3-5, HR, 3 RBI

Game 77 | ARI 9, MIN 5: Sloppy Play in the Middle Innings Leads to Streak-Snapping Loss

• Adams: 1.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K

Game 78 | MIN 16, ARI 8: Twins Separate with 10-Run 4th Inning in Another Lopsided Rout

• Lee: 4-6, 3B, 2 RBI

Game 79 | MIN 4, ARI 2: Late Offensive Surge Turns the Tides and Locks Up Series Victory

• Jackson: 2-3, RBI

NEWS & NOTES

With a pair of successful rehab outings in the books, Mick Abel appeared on track to return to the Twins rotation. He was lined up to make Sunday's start in Arizona. Then ... the dreaded setback. Abel experienced renewed elbow soreness following a Friday bullpen session, and now will go for an MRI on Monday when the Twins are back in town. A brutal turn of events with ominous implications. 

The pitching staff did however receive a different boost on Sunday, with Kendry Rojas being activated from the injured list. He slots back into the bullpen and will likely resume the multi-inning role he was filling before going down. In order to make room on the roster, Justin Lawrence was designated for assignment after allowing 12 earned runs in six innings as a Twin. That's a massive upgrade in talent, and the Twins would love to see some more flashes from Rojas as Louis Varland lights the world on fire as Toronto's bullpen ace. 

HIGHLIGHTS

It was a monster week for the Twins offense, which produced some of its most prolific performances of the season in close succession. They set a season high with 17 hits in Tuesday's 12-2 demolishing of Texas, then surpassed that total within the first five innings of Saturday's game against Arizona, a 16-run onslaught. 

 

Plenty of hitters got in on the action, including a few who loudly broke out of extended slumps:

• Trevor Larnach was batting .176 with just one RBI in his past 12 games before notching four hits, including a long home run, on Tuesday night against the Rangers. He added three more hits and another homer in Thusday's series finale, posted two hits and a walk on Saturday, and sprinkled on two more doubles Sunday. Overall, the 12-for-24 week raised Larnach's OPS by 76 points.
• Victor Caratini's bat is coming alive here in June. He entered the month with a .538 OPS but is now up over .700 after going 7-for-11 with a homer, four RBIs and three walks in three games last week. He went deep just once in his first 45 games but has now launched three homers in his past 11, lifting his slugging percentage by more than 100 points in the process. 
• Fellow free-agent signing Josh Bell is also finding his groove, with multiple hits in five of his past six starts. He finished the past week 10-for-22 with two home runs, two doubles and eight RBIs. It looks like we're getting the typical Bell experience: lackluster production through the first couple of months, followed by a midsummer breakout. If last year was any indication, he's only getting started. 

Brooks Lee enjoyed a four-hit night on Saturday and finished the week with two doubles, a triple and a homer. He's got five walks and two strikeouts in his past 12 games. Luke Keaschall went 8-for-22 with four walks and is batting .310 over the past month. Ryan Kreidler drove in four runs as part of a three-hit game on Saturday, then singled three times on Sunday; he's got a .920 OPS through 89 plate appearances and is making a strong case to be the regular at shortstop. Byron Buxton hit two more homers, including a grand slam, and with 24 on the season he trails only Yordan Alvarez (by one) in the American League. Buxton is building a case as a legit MVP contender.

 

Everywhere you looked, up and down the lineup, hitters were clicking. As a team, the Twins scored 50 runs on 74 hits in these six games, and that tends to be a pretty safe winning formula. Among American League teams, only the Yankees have scored more runs (389) than the Twins (388), and in fact no one else is even remotely close to those two. (The Orioles are third, with 369.) 

 

Pitching took a back seat in this stretch but there were a few notable showings from the staff. Zebby Matthews fired seven innings of two-run ball on Tuesday and Yoendrys Gómez solidified his grasp on the closer role with three scoreless appearances, including his seventh save in seven attempts. Mike Paredes is quietly getting the job done as a fill-in at the back of the rotation, and that should not be overlooked. He came out of nowhere to deliver some really valuable innings for this team. Shades of Randy Dobnak? (Now a Kansas City Royal, by the way.)

LOWLIGHTS

Tough to know what to make of Royce Lewis. On the one hand, he homered, doubled and tallied a two-run single, settling into his new role as primary starter at first base with the occasional big swing. On the other hand, he was 1-for-22 with nine strikeouts otherwise, including a 4-K game on Thursday that included some really baffling swing decisions. 

 

The power is certainly still there, but Lewis continues to look like a guy who's guessing his way through at-bats, hoping to run into a mistake rather than forcing one. That said, there's no reason not to stick with the current script and see if he can eventually develop some improved control of the zone. His overall numbers since returning to the majors remain good, and Derek Shelton is demonstrating a striking amount of confidence by routinely batting Lewis fourth or fifth in the lineup, a departure from his early-season tendency. 

The biggest rough patches from the past week came in the form of relief landmines. Lawrence was disastrous before getting designated for assignment on Sunday, surrendering seven earned runs in just 1 ⅔ innings of work. He came into Saturday's contest with a 14-run lead and proceeded to walk the bases loaded, allowing five runs and compelling the Twins to burn extra relievers. It was ugly. Now that he's been sent out, we'll see if he makes it through waivers and heads to Triple-A — very possible given his $1.2 million guaranteed salary. Maybe there's something there, but we didn't see it during this initial stint with the club.

 

Friday night's game got away from the Twins under Travis Adams' watch. Shortly after the offense drew within one on solo homers from Bell and Lewis, Adams gave up a three-run triple to Corbin Carroll to blow the game open. Adams was arguably left in too long, throwing 42 pitches while facing nine batters, but it's really just a sign of how short this bullpen is on credible options in close games. Rojas re-entering the mix could give the relief corps a little more firepower to work with.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Has the Tristan Gray experiment run its course? He's not showing the kind of power or patience you want to see in a lineup regular, and his defense at shortstop has been quite unimpressive. Gray homered and drove in five runs against the White Sox on June 1st, but since then he has one extra-base hit (a double) and a 10-to-1 K/BB ratio in 38 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Kreidler has looked legitimately great on both ends. 

It seems noteworthy that Kreidler got the starting nod against right-handed starters on both Saturday and Sunday. He helped his case by contributing three hits in each game. In the field, Kreidler has made plays at short that are simply out of Gray's range of capability. I find myself in agreement with Gregg Masterson: let's see what Kreidler can do with some extended run.

 

Of course, this all might be window dressing, because the real question is when Kaelen Culpepper will enter the mix. He was on the verge before suffering a hip injury that landed him on the injured list last week, but Culpepper appears to be on the mend with all signs pointing toward a relatively short-term absence. 

Once he's healthy, I see little reason to have him spend much more time at Triple-A before getting a big-league audition. From there, Kreidler can still play a valuable bench role thanks to his defensive aptitude and versatility. As for Gray? I'm not sure where he will fit in at that point. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Fascinating week ahead. You won't often see this much of a talent differential in consecutive opponents. First, the Twins will host the Dodgers, who unsurprisingly have the most wins in baseball with their ultra-expensive, star-studded roster. Shohei Ohtani is scheduled to start Wednesday's game, making it a priority ticket for fans. Following Los Angeles into town over the weekend will be the Colorado Rockies, who conversely have the fewest wins in baseball. 

A good opportunity for the Twins to measure themselves against the very best and the very worst competition that MLB has to offer. If they can go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers in these next few days, it'd make a statement.

MONDAY, JUNE 21: DODGERS @ TWINS — LHP Eric Lauer v. RHP Zebby Matthews
TUESDAY, JUNE 22: DODGERS @ TWINS — LHP Justin Wrobleski v. RHP Joe Ryan
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 23: DODGERS @ TWINS — RHP Shohei Ohtani v. LHP Connor Prielipp
FRIDAY, JUNE 25: ROCKIES @ TWINS — RHP Tomoyuki Sugano v. RHP Taj Bradley
SATURDAY, JUNE 26: ROCKIES @ TWINS — RHP Michael Lorenzen v. RHP Mick Abel
SUNDAY, JUNE 27: ROCKIES @ TWINS — RHP Ryan Feltner v. RHP Zebby Matthews

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[stringer bell]

The Twins are one game back of a Wild Card slot and just 3.5 behind the Guardians in the division. If they are at a similar spot on August 1st, they can't sell can they? Looking back a couple weeks or a month reveal why patience is usually the best answer when it comes to transactions. Josh Bell, Victor Caratini were viewed as bad signings and a waste of money, but now they are key guys in another run of good baseball. Austin Martin was very good for the first five weeks of the season and has hit like James Outman since. Ryan Kreidler was mocked and the Twins were ridiculed for having a player with a lifetime OPS of under .400.

The Twins have one of the top two offenses in the AL with no one really standing out other than Buxton. However, you don't have to look too hard to see reasons why they can't sustain good play. Defense and bullpen are not good. Playing Kreidler and the emergence of Gomez help, but half of the bullpen is really not worthy of being in MLB. 

[LastOnePicked]

9 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

The Twins are one game back of a Wild Card slot and just 3.5 behind the Guardians in the division. If they are at a similar spot on August 1st, they can't sell can they?

I'm on record for really, really pushing for a deadline selloff and a total organizational rebuild. BUT ... I'd rather see the Twins make a WC push than not. It would be hard to undercut a team that's fighting this hard to be relevant. It's possible that building a winning culture starts now, and you just hope that ownership makes up the remaining talent gaps with smart trades and, in the offseason, free agent signings.

I still don't think it's likely, but I no longer think a WC spot is impossible. The next three weeks are key.

[TheLeviathan]

We've been lulled into this false sense of optimism a few times this season.  Just saying.

[Dman]

11 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

We've been lulled into this false sense of optimism a few times this season.  Just saying.

I hate to be that guy, but I do think they will go cold at some point here and plumet back down.  We'll see what happens, but as you said I feel like we have been here before a couple of times already and there are some pretty glaring weaknesses that seem tough to overcome.

I will say they have surprised me with series wins over the Cardinals and Dback while Sweeping Texas in their house.  If they get swept by the Dodgers though all this is mute. 

[jorgenswest]

Lots of entertaining baseball this week. I would suggest not worrying about seller/buyer and just enjoy the games. We get 162 and there are 83 left. Go Twins!

[tony&rodney]

This team plays hard. Sometimes the results are very disappointing such as the loss to Arizona but the club rebounded with two victories. The bullpen is not complete by any standards but improved. The offense can be frustrating but the team does score runs. The starting pitching has hit some potholes but is still holding steady. That leaves the defense and we have seen Shelton make adjustments to address some of the prior weaknesses. Things are looking up. Can the boys find a consistent level? Does a 4-2 week seem possible? Hopefully Rojas gives the team a boost and Ryan reaches deep to throw a shutout.

As always I enjoy the summary and am looking forward to some good baseball this week.

[Blyleven2011]

It was a exciting road trip  , 5-1 win/loss and the offense , the heat must of loosened their joints , better defense too , pitching is not the strength that started the season but it's growing pains with the youth , sometimes we get it done and sometimes we don't  ...

I for one thought we wouldn't get this close to 500 again , been lulled in before , guess I'll see where this goes ...

Larnach had a blunder in todays game but I think credit is due to Sizemore , larnach has improved on his defense  ...

Jackson and caratini , we are winning with these two behind the plate , what are our FO personal thinking about jeffers even if we get closer to 500 and above , can we win with jeffers traded and get something for him or keep him and he walks for nothing into free agency  ...

Please don't trade him to the Yankees  ...

Larnach has improved his performance offensively and defensively and his trade value has risen too  , will anyone be ready and able to replace him if traded and the twins keep on winning ...

Twins can trade him , phillies are legitiment contenders and are  hurting for outfielders ...

[RpR]

38 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

We've been lulled into this false sense of optimism a few times this season.  Just saying.

So what, get over it.

[LA Vikes Fan]

35 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

It was a exciting road trip  , 5-1 win/loss and the offense , the heat must of loosened their joints , better defense too , pitching is not the strength that started the season but it's growing pains with the youth , sometimes we get it done and sometimes we don't  ...

I for one thought we wouldn't get this close to 500 again , been lulled in before , guess I'll see where this goes ...

Larnach had a blunder in todays game but I think credit is due to Sizemore , larnach has improved on his defense  ...

Jackson and caratini , we are winning with these two behind the plate , what are our FO personal thinking about jeffers even if we get closer to 500 and above , can we win with jeffers traded and get something for him or keep him and he walks for nothing into free agency  ...

Please don't trade him to the Yankees  ...

Larnach has improved his performance offensively and defensively and his trade value has risen too  , will anyone be ready and able to replace him if traded and the twins keep on winning ...

Twins can trade him , phillies are legitiment contenders and are  hurting for outfielders ...

Trade Jeffers, keep Larnach. Caratini and Jackson look like a decent pair behind the plate and Jeffers is going into free agency after the season. Try to get bullpen help for Jeffers, hopefully a young AA starter who can apprentice in the BP this year.  I agree though, trade him to the NL, not to the Yankees. 

I can't believe I'm typing this but I would keep Larnach. The vaunted AAA OFs aren't going to be ready this year except for Roden and maybe Emma if he can ever get healthy for more than 3 weeks at a time. Fedko doesn't look good so far (admittedly a very SSS) and Martin has fallen victim to Outman disease. There's room in the OF even with Larnach here and there's no guarantee that any of the AAA guys will keep his OPS over .775 for a long period like Larnach has. He's actually a bargain at less than $5m a year. He still can't hit LH pitching so maybe give GG a shot as his platoon partner but other than that, the guy has performed. You keep guys who perform. 

[Bracky]

15 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Trade Jeffers, keep Larnach. Caratini and Jackson look like a decent pair behind the plate and Jeffers is going into free agency after the season. Try to get bullpen help for Jeffers, hopefully a young AA starter who can apprentice in the BP this year.  I agree though, trade him to the NL, not to the Yankees. 

I can't believe I'm typing this but I would keep Larnach. The vaunted AAA OFs aren't going to be ready this year except for Roden and maybe Emma if he can ever get healthy for more than 3 weeks at a time. Fedko doesn't look good so far (admittedly a very SSS) and Martin has fallen victim to Outman disease. There's room in the OF even with Larnach here and there's no guarantee that any of the AAA guys will keep his OPS over .775 for a long period like Larnach has. He's actually a bargain at less than $5m a year. He still can't hit LH pitching so maybe give GG a shot as his platoon partner but other than that, the guy has performed. You keep guys who perform. 

I would like to keep Jeffers but if they aren't willing to pay to extend him OR feel like they want to ride with Jackson and Caratini behind the plate (which to be fair they have been serviceable over the last few weeks especially) then I agree they should trade him. However I would only want them to trade him for actually enough value. 

Also agree with your take on Larnach. His salary isn't bad and he has been good enough at the plate and generally fine in the outfield. You make a good point in that all of our supposed AAA OFs either can't stay healthy or haven't been great when brought up.

Ultimately I am more hoping for some smart competitive trades both ways this year. I am not as down on this team as many seem to be. They have been playing fun to watch baseball. Maybe I also just don't trust our FO to do a big selloff and ACTUALLY get anything worth it in return.