Gabriel Gonzalez Can Still Make the Jorge Polanco Trade a Win for the Twins

[Ray Stuedemann]

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins had limited options to choose from on the 40-man to replace Tristan Gray as he moves onto the paternity list for a short while. Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner had both been recently sent down, while outfield prospects Alan Roden and Emanuel Rodriguez are both injured. That left Hendry Mendez, recently called up to St. Paul from Wichita, and Gabriel Gonzalez, whom the Twins eventually called up.

Gonzalez made his major-league debut on Friday night at Fenway, batting fifth in left field. Even though this figures to be a brief introduction, fans should be excited for the #10 prospect in the Twins system to hopefully provide some pop from the right-handed side of the plate, now and going forward.

The 22-year-old played for three levels in the minor league system last year, moving from High-A to Triple-A with his longest stint being with Wichita in the middle of the chain. Gonzalez slashed .319/.378/.529 in 156 plate appearances at High-A before being promoted to Wichita, where he performed better, hitting .344/.429/.509 in 245 plate appearances.

He wrapped up the year by earning another promotion to St. Paul, finishing with a slash line of .316/.358/.504 in 148 plate appearances with the Saints. Twins Daily’s Minor League Hitter of the Year for his overall performance last year, Gonzalez has begun 2026 with some struggles, earning a line of .216/.294/.392. He has been better as of late, riding a six-game hitting streak before his promotion.

A few underlying metrics can be observed about Gonzalez to provide more context. His BABIP this season is very low at .231, so some bad luck may be involved. However, Gonzalez is also smacking the ball into the ground, possessing a GB rate of 48.5%. In addition to that, he is popping the ball up on the infield at a 17.8% rate. Lower those two numbers, and his overall production should start to tick back up to what we saw last year from the promising young Venezuelan.

 

Flashing back a little further, Gonzalez was part of the Jorge Polanco trade with the Seattle Mariners in which the Twins also acquired the recently DFA’d Justin Topa, starter Anthony DeSclafani, and pitching prospect Darren Bowen. Topa was solid last year for the Twins, possessing a 3.90 ERA (3.04 FIP) in 60.0 innings pitched before blowing up this year to a tune of an 8.05 ERA (6.47 FIP). DeSclafani never pitched a game for the Twins due to injury and eventually moved on to the Diamondbacks last year. Bowen is now 25 and is down in Wichita, pitching to a 3.74 ERA through 21 ⅔ innings so far this year as a reliever.

Despite the lackluster results from the rest of the package, Gonzalez has a legitimate chance to “win” this trade for the Twins. Given that Polanco was a pending free agent when he was traded and hit the open market (even though he resigned with the Mariners), he accounted for 1.3 bWAR in his first year in Seattle.

Topa is the only player to crack the major league roster so far, and he’s been worth -0.1 bWAR over his three seasons. From that perspective, Gonzalez would only need 1.4 bWAR for the Twins to “break even”, and given his offensive production from last season, there are hopes he can do that with purely his bat. Gonzalez doesn’t play plus defense, but he can handle the corners and has been mixing in at first base this year as well, giving him another spot he could fit in if the Twins move on from a veteran near the deadline.

While his initial run with the team may be short, Gonzalez has the talent to contribute strongly in the near future. While he struggled early at Triple-A this season, Gonzalez had been heating up before his promotion, and the underlying numbers suggest there is still plenty of reason for optimism. His combination of bat-to-ball skills and emerging power gives the Twins another young, intriguing option that can come up and play multiple positions.

For a team that has struggled this year at first base and in right field when Wallner was there, Gonzalez could play himself into a more consistent big-league role later in the year if he performs in his first chance with the Twins. No matter how long the call-up lasts for, fans should view Gonzalez as one of the important young hitters in the organization and the key piece to achieving the perceived value obtained for Jorge Polanco back in 2024.

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[Sjoski]

May Gabby make it impossible for the Twins to even think of sending him back to AAA.... like Puckett in '86.

[RpR]

11 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

May Gabby make it impossible for the Twins to even think of sending him back to AAA.... like Puckett in '86.

That is not going to happen.

[KirbyDome89]

The Twins were trying to win games in 2024. Polanco was asset, Idk why people seem to forget that. Acquiring a SP and a  RP who contributed nothing while giving away that asset made the 2024 Twins worse. Simply counting WAR doesn't give you the full scope of that swap, or any swap for that matter. 

[jorgenswest]

I don’t think WAR will be a good judge.

The Twins intended to contend in 2024 on a lower budget. Polanco was their best trade asset and they needed both starters and relievers. The starter and relievers they acquired were failures and left holes on a team that expected them to fill.

In order for this trade to be a win Gonzalez need to be significant contributor to a team that makes the playoffs.

[ashbury]

35 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I don’t think WAR will be a good judge.

The Twins intended to contend in 2024 on a lower budget. Polanco was their best trade asset and they needed both starters and relievers. The starter and relievers they acquired were failures and left holes on a team that expected them to fill.

In order for this trade to be a win Gonzalez need to be significant contributor to a team that makes the playoffs.

I believe there was also a perceived logjam of candidates to play second base at the time.  A good trade could free up the resources and apply them to a different area of need.

The trade, well intentioned from first principles, was not well executed.  GG was the only legitimate hope from the very outset.  I would have preferred bundling Polanco with a prospect to obtain more of a difference-maker.  Very nearly a waste of a good trade chip, but maybe GG will pan out.

[Sjoski]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

That is not going to happen.

Agreed... but as Twins fans, we’re only ever one of three things:

1. Delusional
2. Depressed
3. Distracted by memories of 1987 and 1991 because the present hurts too much.

 

[RpR]

19 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

Agreed... but as Twins fans, we’re only ever one of three things:

1. Delusional
2. Depressed
3. Distracted by memories of 1987 and 1991 because the present hurts too much.

 

Actually I still have no love for the Dodgers due to 1965 World Series.☠️

[Rosterman]

Darren Bowen could still be a bullpen arm, too.

The Twins really didn't save any money as they ntook on a dead salary from the Mariners in the deal with no return. But will be interesting to see if Gabriel can give the Twins 3-5 years of bat service. Now, where to play him is the question.

[ashbury]

19 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Darren Bowen could still be a bullpen arm, too.

I don't see it.  An "arm", the way Matt Bowman is an arm, sure, maybe, why not.  Not an "arm" you want to plan around, or even simply dream on.

Bowen is age 25 and still at AA.  Putting up decent but not stellar numbers this year after pretty bad numbers in his prior two years in the Twins organization.  And his 3.74 ERA this year is built on a BABIP of .204, which no major leaguer can sustain.  He's a non-tender candidate this off-season IMO, unless he finds lightning in a bottle pronto.

Quote

The Twins really didn't save any money as they ntook on a dead salary from the Mariners in the deal with no return.

There was cash that came from Seattle to the Twins, partially offsetting the Giants salary (which the Giants partially paid to the Mariners, and the Mariners then passed along).  My understanding was that the Twins received a net payroll reduction, which they applied toward signing Carlos Santana.

b-r.com:
January 5, 2024: Traded by the San Francisco Giants with Mitch Haniger and cash to the Seattle Mariners for Robbie Ray.
January 29, 2024: Traded by the Seattle Mariners with Darren Bowen (minors), Gabriel Gonzalez (minors), Justin Topa and cash to the Minnesota Twins for Jorge Polanco.

[DocBauer]

I struggle every time one of these posts are made. Polanco was terrible for Seattle, then good for a season, and has been a terrible signing so far for the Mets so far.  So to me, Gonzalez is a "yet to be determined".

And all I care about is what he does with the Twins. Despite a tremendous 2025 season that had him reach AAA with success, he's had a slow start to 2026, despite an impressive ST. But he's been getting hotter lately after a slow start. And he's earned a 3 day callup based on potential. He looked competent in his 1st game. I'm really hoping he gets a chance in game 3. Why not?

I am ABSOLUTELY STUNNED by how tremendous all the young and rookie pitchers have done. Imagine the same a month or two from now when Gonzalez isn't the only position player, healthy, ready to debut. Despite injuries that have delayed debuts, I remain EXCITED for the 2nd half of the season with Rosario and Rodriguez and Jenkins in the OF. 

Gonzalez is just starting to heat up. Mendez seems to be a LF Gonzalez, great BAT, just waiting for more power to come through. 

The Twins offense doesn't suck, but it's inconsistent. It's just WRONG to say the offense is better without Lewis and Wallner. But that is reality.  And Gonzalez has a chance to make a difference down the road, but in 3 games. But he shouldn't be dismissed. He EARNED his 3 day ML debut not just BECAUSE of being on the 40 man, but because he's worthy and been on a hot streak recently. 

We'll see him again, and Mendez, who looks like a pure hitter similar to Arraez,  but with more power. In fact, BOTH of Gonzalez and Mendez are similar contact and good AVG hitters with budding power potential.  Whether or not either is a STARTER or a solid bench player and 1B/DH is TBD. but the BAT potential might lag behind Rodriguez and Jenkins, and even Roden, but the potential to be a quality ML player is there.

My point is there is ENOUGH talent for the Twins to be really good even with washouts. But DAMN I want to see what a healthy Twins could be the next few years!

[twinstalker]

16 hours ago, Sjoski said:

May Gabby make it impossible for the Twins to even think of sending him back to AAA.... like Puckett in '86.

I don't think Puckett's third year has anything to do with this.  

And this is not going to happen.  He's back in AAA in a couple of days because, well, AAA is something he hasn't conquered yet.  St. Paul is super misleading for hitters, and his stats kinda suck there as is. 

He is a bit of a wild card, though.  I'd like to see him in August.

[twinstalker]

Oh, yeah, Polanco. 

I'm not sure there was ever anything we traded Polanco for besides Gonzalez.  This is what the trade was all about.  You'd have hoped to get more (a good Topa?), but Gabby is what the trade was for.  Unfortunately, he has to hit a ton to make up for his defense and be close to as good as Polanco.  Twins saved 10.5 million by getting rid of PL, so in theory, they don't need a ton from Gonzalez, just a good bat vs lhp who isn't bad in the COF, a short-side platoon guy.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

44 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

Oh, yeah, Polanco. 

I'm not sure there was ever anything we traded Polanco for besides Gonzalez.  This is what the trade was all about.  You'd have hoped to get more (a good Topa?), but Gabby is what the trade was for.  Unfortunately, he has to hit a ton to make up for his defense and be close to as good as Polanco.  Twins saved 10.5 million by getting rid of PL, so in theory, they don't need a ton from Gonzalez, just a good bat vs lhp who isn't bad in the COF, a short-side platoon guy.

And Polanco is now with the Mets ... and injured again. At this point (how many years later?), I don't care to debate whether the Twins won or lost that trade, but at least we still have one asset left in Gonzalez who MAY end up being a valuable player on the Twins. Here's hoping he can shake some action. 

[TL]

Well said DocBauer, “I am ABSOLUTELY STUNNED by how tremendous all the young and rookie pitchers have done. Imagine the same a month or two from now when Gonzalez isn't the only position player, healthy, ready to debut. Despite injuries that have delayed debuts, I remain EXCITED for the 2nd half of the season with Rosario and Rodriguez and Jenkins in the OF.”

Gonzalez also has a feather in his cap being right-handed. He can (eventually) spell Jenkins, or E-Rod against lefty’s in addition to being a DH, pinch hitter. I see a role carving out ~400-450 ABs a year with solid production. 

[twinfan]

I would not yet count Topa completely out since our bullpen is in a state of flux- unless we get a better arm. Polanco has always been a marginal player and we got some possible good things for him when the trade was made. Time will tell but I wouldn't be so quick to send Gonzalez back down if he is hitting. If there were doubts about him in the majors, why bat him 5th in his first game up. Many teams protect their youngsters early by batting them near the bottom. And batting him 5th shows how weak the offense is (IMHO). We have far too many "role" players who play more when they get hot or there's nobody else to put there. In the weak Central division, we are only on track to win 76-78 games which is not enough. And now there is talk of trading Ryan which would lower that number.

[Jeff K]

Polanco was working his way down the food chain when the Twins traded him.  He played a poor 2nd base his last year; was becoming injury prone and his hitting was fading.  Other than that, he was just like new when we traded him.  He was crummy his first year in Seattle with a good 2nd year.  Polanco was a great MN Twins for a number of years, but he was not the same player when they traded him.  The logic behind the move still seems good.  They traded him when there was perceived value.  Pity the same can't be said with Royce Lewis.

[jmlease1]

There's a very sticky belief around here that Polanco had a lot more value than he actually did in 2024 too. Did the Twins make a great trade? No, because DeScalfani was a bust who ate up payroll while providing nothing. But they did get a good asset in GG who has real ability as a hitter, and while Topa imploded really badly this season (extremely disappointing; while the injury issues were predictable, him stinking up the joint like a week old dead fish was much less likely) he'd been useful before.

Polanco's injury history, salary, and questions about his defensive position made him harder to trade than people thought and the value prospect around the league just wasn't what people expected in his walk year. It's notable that after a meh season in Seattle he re-signed at a pay cut in his first chance at free agency. What's fairly unbelievable is that after a bounce back season he got such a stunner of a deal from the Idiot Mets. I mean, good for him: good dude, and he's set up his family for generational wealth if he's careful but he would have needed to stay healthy and hit like prime Jorge while fielding an actual position beyond DH for that deal to be worth it. What insanity.

GG needs to get his bat on track, but I think he can get there again. He's definitely showing he can punish LHP, which is certainly something the Twins need to be getting from the OF. Would love to see him be a guy who can play some OF/1B/DH and give the Twins the ability to mix and match more with their hitters. Bell won't be here next season, Outman might be gone sooner rather than later, Larnach seems unlikely to get re-signed, Wallner has opened the door for someone to take his job, Caratini isn't going to be playing much 1B in the future (JMO) so there is real opportunity for someone like GG to go out and win a job. Glad he got a start with this cup of coffee.

[USAFChief]

The Jorge Polanco trade did nothing but weaken a team that should have been contending. 

Terrible trade.

Edited 2 hours ago by USAFChief