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Posted
Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins entered spring training with a handful of rotation questions, and Zebby Matthews looked like one of the more straightforward answers. Even with some competition, injuries to Pablo López and David Festa seemed to clear a path for him to break camp in the big-league rotation.

Instead, a rough spring changed the equation. Matthews was ultimately optioned to Triple-A, and the expectation at that point felt pretty simple: go to St. Paul, get right, and force the issue again. So far, that hasn’t happened, either. Through his first three starts with the St. Paul Saints, the overall line isn’t pretty. Matthews has thrown 12 1/3 innings, allowing 12 earned runs on 21 hits, including five home runs. He’s also walked four and struck out just 10.

Those 21 hits jump off the page, and they’re not coming from a lack of control. Hitters are earning their way on base by putting the ball in play. A big reason for that becomes clear when you look at the swing-and-miss numbers; he’s just not missing bats right now.

His swinging strike rate is sitting at just 11% thus far. That’s not a terrible number on its own, but after being in the 13-14% range over the last couple of years, it’s a noticeable decline. He’s also sporting just a 16.4% strikeout rate, which is a significant drop from his 25% rate last year in the majors. When that ability dips, everything else starts to get a little more fragile. More contact means more opportunities for hitters to square balls up, and that’s also showing up in the quality of contact. 

Opponents' average exit velocity against Matthews is up by about 2 MPH compared to last season, and when that’s paired with more pulled contact, it can lead to exactly what we’ve seen early on. Opponents have pulled 57% of the balls they’ve put in play against him, which is typically a sign that they’re seeing the ball well and getting the barrel out front.

The five home runs he’s allowed are a devastating result of that consistent hard, pulled contact, but they're also a product of some bad luck. More than one out of every three fly balls he’s given up has left the yard. That’s not a rate that will hold over time, but it does highlight how little margin for error he’s had.

A big part of that comes back to his stuff. Matthews’s velocity is down across the board. His fastball, sinker, and cutter are each sitting about 1 MPH lower than they were last season. His slider has dipped slightly, and his curveball is down even more significantly, by roughly 2.5 MPH.

Even small drops like that can have a noticeable impact. If hitters don’t have to respect the same level of velocity, it becomes easier to time things up and make consistent contact. That can snowball quickly, especially when paired with a drop in swing-and-miss. It also helps explain why hitters have been so comfortable putting the ball in play. Without that extra life, Matthews hasn’t been able to generate the same level of deception or separation between his pitches.

That said, there are still a couple of underlying indicators that engender optimism. His hard-hit rate currently sits at 38.3%, which is down slightly from last season. He’s also generating ground balls at a 45.7% clip, a strong shift for a pitcher who has historically been much more fly ball-heavy in the majors. In theory, that combination should limit damage, not amplify it. So there’s at least some element of poor luck mixed into these early results.

With all that in mind, it’s worth noting that there’s also a mental side to this. Matthews came into camp with a strong shot at a rotation spot, particularly given the injuries around him, and to miss out on that opportunity can’t be an easy situation. Confidence and execution tend to go hand-in-hand, and early struggles can make both harder to regain.

It’s important to keep the sample size in perspective. We’re talking about 12 1/3 innings here. That’s nothing over the course of a full season, and a couple of strong outings could shift his entire statistical profile in a hurry. Matthews has shown in the past that he’s capable of missing bats and limiting damage at a much higher level than this. But early trends still matter, especially when they’re tied to underlying changes in stuff. If his velocity and swing-and-miss numbers start to get back to 2025 levels, the results should follow. Right now, that’s the biggest thing to watch.

The Twins are going to need starting pitching depth at some point this season, and Matthews is still very much part of that picture. But for now, this is a very slow start for a pitcher who hasn’t found any real consistency.


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Posted

I had high hopes for Matthews as a starter, but at some point you need to make the switch, and that point is clearly now. 

I disagree that starting pitching depth is needed if this is what the depth looks like. If you're in a pinch and you need a guy in the rotation, Matthews hasn't shown that he can do any better than the guys floating around on the waiver wire.

Relief work is valuable too, and the bullpen needs velocity. He might struggle with the switch right away, but hopefully by next year, he's the next Jax/Duran/Varland.

Posted

Matthews velocity being down is a concern. But according to the Saints radio broadcast, the Twins want him to work on improving another pitch, one that adds to his arsenal. Thus he is throwing more of his bad pitches right now (not sure if the stats prove that to be the case).  I forget exactly what pitch that is. Maybe someone can help me out on here.

Posted

He has only thrown about 120 MLB innings and given up almost 2HR per 9. Too much contact, especially hard contact, has always been his problem.  His contact rate going up in AAA does not bode well for his future as a starter.

Posted
2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Matthews velocity being down is a concern. But according to the Saints radio broadcast, the Twins want him to work on improving another pitch, one that adds to his arsenal. Thus he is throwing more of his bad pitches right now (not sure if the stats prove that to be the case).  I forget exactly what pitch that is. Maybe someone can help me out on here.

In 25 he threw his change/curve/sinker 21% of the time in MLB and 12% in AAA.  It is currently at 35% at AAA.  His change is now called a splitter so it may be a different pitch, and it is currently getting 3 inches more armside movement then his change was.  Curveball is 4mph slower and is moved to being more of a horizontal pitch, while last year it was mostly vertical movement.  The curve is missing more bats, while the splitter seems about the same

Not all good new though, the fastball whiff rate went from 24% in AAA to 10%, slider from 40% to 32%.  Really needs to get the velo back to where it was.

Posted

Its a speed bump in his career. He will be fine. Might be due to a nagging injury or disappointment of not making the MLB ODR. He has plenty of good baseball in him.

Posted

I still have high hopes for Zebby. He did need more time in the minors, he didn't get enough time to learn new pitches as some as the others, He will turn this season around in the next month.

Posted

Here is the thing: Zebby hasn’t been good in the big leagues so this idea that he had a straightforward path to the Twins rotation is silly. I hope he figures it out and can contribute to the the Twins in the rotation or the pen but that is clearly no sure thing. I think this is a classic example of hopes getting way ahead of actual performance. The hardest jump is the last one from AAA to the bigs. 

Posted

Matthews isn't landing first pitch strikes and he's working on other pitches, probably because he's throwing his fastball only 25% of the time. His velocity is higher than it was 2 years ago so I'm not worried about it.

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