Bailey Ober Is Reinventing Himself in Real Time

[Cody Christie]

Velocity has been the conversation around Bailey Ober for more than a year now. It started during last spring training and never really went away. A hip issue disrupted his mechanics and, for a pitcher listed at 6-foot-9, that matters more than it might for most. There are a lot of moving parts in a delivery like Ober’s, and when even one of them is out of sync, everything can fall apart.

Now, in 2026, the radar gun still isn't telling the story fans were hoping for. But Ober is not chasing his old velocity. Instead, he is building something different.

The most noticeable change is subtle. Ober’s arm angle is a tick lower this season. It is not dramatic enough to jump out without a side-by-side look (see below), but it is there. That slight adjustment could be tied directly to the movement changes he appears to be chasing. A lower slot can help create different shapes, especially on pitches like his slider and sweeper, which will be critical for him to succeed at lower velocities.

At the same time, he is sacrificing a bit of what made him unique. Ober has long been known for elite extension (97th percentile in 2025), releasing the ball closer to the plate than most pitchers. That trait helped his fastball play above its velocity. This year, he is giving some of that back in exchange for better posture and balance through his delivery.

 

That tradeoff is not insignificant. If the extension is down, then the perceived velocity hitters see is dropping even more than what the radar gun shows. In other words, the margin for error is smaller. But Ober seems to understand that and is betting on command and execution instead.

His pitch mix backs that up. In his first two starts, Ober leaned heavily on his changeup, throwing it 37% of the time. That is a massive jump from anything he has done previously, where he had never crossed the 30 percent mark. It is not just a tweak. It is a philosophical shift.

The changeup has always been one of his best pitches, and using it that often suggests a willingness to pitch backward, disrupt timing, and avoid relying on a fastball that may be more of a liability now. He’s held batters to a .083 BA against the pitch with a 25.0 Whiff%.

There are also signs that the raw stuff might be ticking in a different direction. Nearly every pitch in his arsenal has seen a bump in spin rate. His four-seamer has climbed from 2274 rpm to 2307, adding a bit more life. The changeup has jumped from 2029 to 2046, which could help it maintain separation despite similar arm speed. The biggest gain comes from the sweeper, which has surged from 2099 to 2280. That kind of increase can turn a fringe pitch into something much more impactful.

Even the smallest details point to a deliberate reset. Ober is listed at 254 pounds in the game notes, down slightly from the 260 he has carried in the past. It is not a dramatic change, but it suggests a focus on mobility and repeatability. For someone trying to clean up mechanics and stay in sync, that matters.

Manager Derek Shelton made it clear that this process is still ongoing.

“And [Ober] did a good job in the Baltimore [game]. He made one bad pitch, the pitch to O’Neill, and he gave up two singles before that, but overall, he was pretty effective, and if we go through and starters, you know, make one bad pitch or two bad pitches, I think we're gonna be in a pretty good spot. The only thing that we really want our starters to do is give us a chance to win the game. And if we do that, then we can kind of go from there.”

That context is important. Ober is not just adjusting on the fly in games. He is still building up after a spring focused on reworking his approach on the mound.

There is no denying that Ober looks different. The velocity dip is real, and the tradeoffs he is making are not small. But this is not a pitcher clinging to what he used to be. This is someone actively reshaping his profile to fit what he is now.

If the command sharpens, if the changeup heavy approach sticks, and if the added spin translates into more consistent movement, Ober does not need to be the same pitcher he was before. He just needs to be a better version of the one he is becoming.

What are your thoughts on the changes so far from Ober? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[dberthia]

"Reinventing" is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. Perhaps a better description would be "cooked guy is desperate to stay in the big leagues"?

[Patzky]

Forum users are pretty sharp. They pay close attention to details that mass media miss, trends and vibes and patterns. But they also love a scapegoat more than a hero. If Ober can do what he's done so far over the course of a season, that's ok for a fifth starter on a non-contender.  I believe the fear is, that he won't be able to do the repetitions, and maintain even the limited success he has had so far. He's better than Paddack was last year and we were willing to ride with Paddack as what (we thought) was a contender. The real reason why Bailey will stay in the rotation is because there are no better options right now. (The same for Abel.)  If he tweaks on the fly and reinvents himself (I wouldn't be shocked to learn Pablo Lopez has a hand in this process) toward another year with the Twins, or toward trade bait, it's something interesting and optimistic to learn about that process, and optimism is in extremely short supply right now.

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, Patzky said:

Forum users are pretty sharp. They pay close attention to details that mass media miss, trends and vibes and patterns. But they also love a scapegoat more than a hero. If Ober can do what he's done so far over the course of a season, that's ok for a fifth starter on a non-contender.  I believe the fear is, that he won't be able to do the repetitions, and maintain even the limited success he has had so far. He's better than Paddack was last year and we were willing to ride with Paddack as what (we thought) was a contender. The real reason why Bailey will stay in the rotation is because there are no better options right now. (The same for Abel.)  If he tweaks on the fly and reinvents himself (I wouldn't be shocked to learn Pablo Lopez has a hand in this process) toward another year with the Twins, or toward trade bait, it's something interesting and optimistic to learn about that process, and optimism is in extremely short supply right now.

4.0 innings starts and a 6.75 ERA is okay? Paddack was much better than that last year, and 2022 Dylan Bundy was a lot better than 2025 Paddack. For pitchers with 100 innings last year, by ERA, that would make Ober the 3rd worst starting pitcher in the game.

MLB is not the place for learning how to pitch. That's what the minors are there for and Ober needs to quickly figure things out or he should go to AAA where the coaches can hopefully help him recover 3mph of velo. I'm not sure how Pablo Lopez comes into this? He's not a coach, and he doesn't throw 88-89mph. Ober's simply not a viable starter at 88-89mph, and I think there's a pretty strong agreement among this forum in regard to that position.

Maybe with some warmer weather Ober's velo will pick up. It's worth hoping he's able to put it together in the next 3 starts or so.

[mark sills]

A lot of people say he can't be a reliever with his lost mph. I disagree I think its more the 2nd time threw the lineup that it hurts.

[DJL44]

Not a lot of crafty right handed pitchers.

Ober is not striking batters out so he’ll have to limit home runs and depend on the lousy Twins defense to get outs for him.

He looks like a non-tender candidate this fall.

[jkcarew]

I’ve noticed the velocity of his changeup (which he loves to throw) has NOT declined in velocity along with the fastball. Seems the delta in velocity of those two pitches is very narrow. I’d think the number one thing you’d want to do if your fastball is weakening…improve the changeup (or whatever your go-to offspeed pitch is) in terms of deception and control. I don’t see that. At least yet.

[AceWrigley]

I'm surprised with his height and leverage that he doesn't throw harder. Makes me wonder what kind of velocity he could develop with an over-the-top let-it-fly delivery. That could be pretty intimidating for a batter.

[Patzky]

56 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

4.0 innings starts and a 6.75 ERA is okay? Paddack was much better than that last year, and 2022 Dylan Bundy was a lot better than 2025 Paddack. For pitchers with 100 innings last year, by ERA, that would make Ober the 3rd worst starting pitcher in the game.

MLB is not the place for learning how to pitch. That's what the minors are there for and Ober needs to quickly figure things out or he should go to AAA where the coaches can hopefully help him recover 3mph of velo. I'm not sure how Pablo Lopez comes into this? He's not a coach, and he doesn't throw 88-89mph. Ober's simply not a viable starter at 88-89mph, and I think there's a pretty strong agreement among this forum in regard to that position.

Maybe with some warmer weather Ober's velo will pick up. It's worth hoping he's able to put it together in the next 3 starts or so.

More velocity might be nice for the radar gun but the difference between 88 and 90 don't going to fool anyone, is the point of a different strategy, is the point of the article. 

Besides, who else? Maybe Prielipp by the All star break.

[Patzky]

56 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Not a lot of crafty right handed pitchers.

Ober is not striking batters out so he’ll have to limit home runs and depend on the lousy Twins defense to get outs for him.

He looks like a non-tender candidate this fall.

That defense is gonna be a liability for him more than for the strikeout artists .. whoever they turn out to be.

.

[mark sills]

11 minutes ago, Patzky said:

More velocity might be nice for the radar gun but the difference between 88 and 90 don't going to fool anyone, is the point of a different strategy, is the point of the article. 

Besides, who else? Maybe Prielipp by the All star break.

Andrew Morris, career era under 3, great control. Limits Homeruns, He is ready to go

[Hunter4848]

Hopefully you got money from Ober's agent to write this propaganda piece.

[Linus]

I think Ober should go old school and pitch to contact. Start throwing a sinker instead of the four seam, use the change up a lot and maybe a cutter. I realize this strategy doesn’t fit well with the Twins infield defense but this old approach might be different enough to buy him some leeway. 

[CRF]

Reinventing? 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I wish Bailey Ober well. I'm sure no one is more concerned about Ober's performance than Bailey Ober. These players are human beings, like you and me, with hopes and dreams, fears and doubts, success and failures, families and friends. They are not race cars that need engine tweaks to increase speed. I say we cut them some slack and cheer their amazing talents and constant efforts. 

[D.C Twins]

16 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I wish Bailey Ober well. I'm sure no one is more concerned about Ober's performance than Bailey Ober. These players are human beings, like you and me, with hopes and dreams, fears and doubts, success and failures, families and friends. They are not race cars that need engine tweaks to increase speed. I say we cut them some slack and cheer their amazing talents and constant efforts. 

Baseball is hard and unforgiving... that is why exceedingly few make it to the MLB, but get paid very well when they do. Ober knows better than us that he should and will be judged only on his results. 

[nicksaviking]

I hope it works out; Ober has been a great story for the Twins. But we've seen the low velocity guys work in short bursts before, however, it's usually not long before the league catches up to what's going on and adjusts accordingly.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

More velocity might be nice for the radar gun but the difference between 88 and 90 don't going to fool anyone, is the point of a different strategy, is the point of the article. 

Besides, who else? Maybe Prielipp by the All star break.

The difference from 88 and 90 is substantial. The 88mph pitch is trailing the 90mph pitch by 1.5 feet. Being late 1.5 feet on a pitch is a strikeout vs. a foul ball and another swing.

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

The difference from 88 and 90 is substantial. The 88mph pitch is trailing the 90mph pitch by 1.5 feet. Being late 1.5 feet on a pitch is a strikeout vs. a foul ball and another swing.

It also makes his changeup a better pitch if there is 2 MPH more velocity separation.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

4.0 innings starts and a 6.75 ERA is okay? Paddack was much better than that last year, and 2022 Dylan Bundy was a lot better than 2025 Paddack. For pitchers with 100 innings last year, by ERA, that would make Ober the 3rd worst starting pitcher in the game.

MLB is not the place for learning how to pitch. That's what the minors are there for and Ober needs to quickly figure things out or he should go to AAA where the coaches can hopefully help him recover 3mph of velo. I'm not sure how Pablo Lopez comes into this? He's not a coach, and he doesn't throw 88-89mph. Ober's simply not a viable starter at 88-89mph, and I think there's a pretty strong agreement among this forum in regard to that position.

Maybe with some warmer weather Ober's velo will pick up. It's worth hoping he's able to put it together in the next 3 starts or so.

He’s pitched 8 innings. Doesn’t seem logical to compare him to guys with high ERA’s all either over 100 innings………….. I would assume Ryan’s current ERA doesn’t stack up very well with others from last season either? …….. not bottom 3 but probably bottom 40%. 

[amjgt]

49 minutes ago, CRF said:

Reinventing? 

I mean, yeah... it's basically the Mirriam-Webster definition of what's going on.

[Nshore]

Between Festa and Ober, the experiment in Wilt Chamberlain tall pitchers hasn't gone too well.  Maybe they can delete that one from the computer models.

[Hunter4848]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I wish Bailey Ober well. I'm sure no one is more concerned about Ober's performance than Bailey Ober. These players are human beings, like you and me, with hopes and dreams, fears and doubts, success and failures, families and friends. They are not race cars that need engine tweaks to increase speed. I say we cut them some slack and cheer their amazing talents and constant efforts. 

This isnt pee wee baseball... These are grown adults that are paid millions to pay a children's game of we can critique them. Attitudes like this are partially why the Twins have underachieved for so long.

[Dawgzilla]

Obviously, arm is shot; he can't throw harder than 90 and basically is a soft tosser, and very few of those are successful in MLB....they get hit....hard!!!

[LambchoP]

Maybe he can learn a knuckleball? 😆 

[Taildragger8791]

1 hour ago, Nshore said:

Between Festa and Ober, the experiment in Wilt Chamberlain tall pitchers hasn't gone too well.  Maybe they can delete that one from the computer models.

I'd add Alex Meyer to that list.

[Twinsrtheworst]

2 hours ago, Hunter4848 said:

This isnt pee wee baseball... These are grown adults that are paid millions to pay a children's game of we can critique them. Attitudes like this are partially why the Twins have underachieved for so long.

You could not be more incorrect if you tried. 

[Hunter4848]

1 hour ago, se7799 said:

You could not be more incorrect if you tried. 

I happen to be entirely correct 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

5 hours ago, Hunter4848 said:

This isnt pee wee baseball... These are grown adults that are paid millions to pay a children's game of we can critique them. Attitudes like this are partially why the Twins have underachieved for so long.

If you're happy and you know it, clap your hands. Clap, clap.

[amjgt]

6 hours ago, Nshore said:

Between Festa and Ober, the experiment in Wilt Chamberlain tall pitchers hasn't gone too well.  Maybe they can delete that one from the computer models.

The 12th and 13th round picks that have both contributed to the MLB team? One of whom has around 10 career WAR?

Those haven’t gone well?