Rays 7, Twins 1: Rays Run Wild Over Abel and the Twins

[Steven Trefz]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Box Score
SP: Mick Abel 4.0 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (69 pitches, 43 strikes (62%)
Home Runs: N/A
Bottom 3 WPA: Abel (-.23), Taylor Rogers (-.09), James Outman & Victor Caratini (-.08)

Win Probability Chart (via BaseballSavant)

 

Abel Gets of to a Slow Start in the Snow
Mick Abel took the mound in his first start of the season and his first Target Field start with snowflakes flying and temperatures plummeting. After pitching around a walk and a single in the top of the first, Abel froze up against the Rays hitters in the top of the second. The first baserunner really wasn't his fault, as Royce Lewis couldn't make the charging throw successfully on a Chandler Simpson leadoff swinging bunt, and Josh Bell couldn't dig out the throw in his first chance at first base. With the speedy Simpson now on second, Abel went rogue walking Ben Williamson on four pitches and hitting number nine batter RIchie Palacios on an 0-2 pitch to load the bases.

With Yandy Diaz at the plate, another off-speed delivery went astray and plunked in the first run of the ballgame. With the bases still loaded, Jonathan Aranda delivered a missile off the right field wall to plate two more Rays for a 3-0 lead. One day after the Twins bullpen needed to toss 83 pitches, it looked like they were going to have to dig deep again if the Twins were going to make a comeback after Abel spun 57 pitches just to escape the first two innings.

Twins Try to Craft a Comeback
The Twins hoped to stage another comeback victory, but they faced Steven Matz in the finale of the "week of crafty lefties." With the newly minted Silver Slugger, Byron Buxton, out of the lineup due to last night's pitch off of his forearm, the Twins faced an uphill battle.

After a lifeless first inning, the Minnesota bats got some momentum moving in the bottom of the second. Matt Wallner snuck a single up the middle, and Ryan Jeffers worked a walk. Victor Carantini struck out, and Lewis got robbed on a diving catch by centerfielder Cedric Mullins. Brooks Lee returned to the lineup and delivered a clutch RBI single, which Mullins booted to put runners at second and third with two out. The Buxton replacement, James Outman, in all his left-handedness, struck out quickly to make Twins fans wonder what might have been.

Small Ball Stings Abel...and Rogers...
The Rays immediately regained their three-run lead in the top of the third, as Mullins dropped a successful bunt and quickly stole second base. Simpson threatened to bunt, and opted to lace a single to right instead to put runners on the corners with nobody out. Surprisingly, Simpson didn't attempt to steal, and Williamson shot a grounder to a drawn-in Lee. Lee opted for the double-play, and Mullins scored to make it 4-1 Tampa. Taylor Rogers made his first Target Field appearance in a Twins jersey since 2021 in the top of the fifth inning. The Rays greeted him rudely with a single, a stolen base, a single, a stolen base, and a single to expand the lead to 6-1.

ABS...and Matz...Sting Twins
After Josh Bell lost a challenge in the first inning in an attempt to avoid a strikeout, Luke Keaschall lost a challenge in the third inning in an attempt to avoid a 1-2 count. This loss really stung when a 3-2 sinker looked to cruise outside of the zone, but strike three was the call, and there was no recourse left for the protesting young Twin. The Twins were going to have to fight the rest of the way with an expanded strike zone and no more challenges. WIth the border of the strike zone fully at his disposal, Matz proceeded to take down ten Twins batters in a row, cruising through six innings on 97 pitches. 

Rays Keep On Running
While the Twins failed to take advantage of the Rays bullpen entering the scene in the bottom of the seventh, the Rays continued to take advantage of Caratini's arm behind the plate. After stealing only two bases in their first seven games, Tampa swiped the fourth base of the evening in the top of the eighth inning. With Palacios now in scoring position, Diaz blasted a ball deep to right-center that went into and out of Outman's glove for a "Buxton on the bench" triple, plating Palacios and adding insurance to insult at 7-1. It's hard to place the blame for this loss upon any one Twin when only Lee, Jeffers, and Banda had positive WPA"s. Luckily only a few hundred fans had to witness it in person, and tomorrow's always another day.

What’s Next?
The Twins look to take their first series of the season in an Easter Sunday matchup against the Rays. Twins righty Simeon Woods-Richardson (0-1, 3.60 ERA) will get his second start of the season, after taking a hard-luck loss against the Royals earlier in the week. The Rays will counter with righty Nick Martinez (0-0, 3.00 ERA) in the rubber game. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm CDT.

 

Postgame Interviews

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	SAT	TOT
Kent	0	47	0	0	34	47
Laweryson	0	36	0	10	9	46
Banda	0	12	0	17	15	44
Funderburk	0	0	15	2	0	43
Topa	0	0	13	17	0	40
Orze	0	0	0	37	0	37
Rogers	0	0	4	0	23	18
Sands	0	0	11	0	0	11

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[darwin22]

A few thoughts after anemic loss:

1.  Spring Training results don't mean squat.  Case in point:  The performance of Mick Abel

I realize only a small same size, but his two outings indicate to me a reset in AAA is around the corner. Like his stuff, but his command is mediocre along with his inability to put hitters away with 2 strikes.

Saying that, Abel should get another few starts to turn things around as Zebby Matthews outing tonight (3 HRs allowed---one of which to the immortal Mickey Gasper) for SP was putrid.

2.  Caratini has severe limitations in his ability to control another teams running game.  His bat, like far too many others, is as cold as the weather in Minneapolis today.

3.  Is there ANY OTHER MLB team that is challenged against LH pitchers as this group?  Pathetic! 3 hits on the day. Brutal.

4.  When will management admit that trading for and keeping Outman on this team is a joke? Sure would like to see Outman DFA'ed with Roden promoted.

 

 

[jkcarew]

The Orioles, Royals, and Rays are 5-3 against the Twins. And 5-11 against everyone else.

Also, I realize ABS is something new, and so it’s going to be commented on frequently, especially early on. Still, the early ABS fails, and the subsequent strike zone, had zero to do with the trajectory and eventual outcome of this game. The write-up kinda insinuates otherwise.

Also interesting…if the Twins had taken it down to the studs this offseason and traded Lopez, Ryan, AND Buxton…and for nothing but minor league prospects…their record right now would be no worse than….3-5. But yes, with less of that false ‘hope’ the masses never grow tired of buying from the Pohlads.

[jkcarew]

20 minutes ago, darwin22 said:

Saying that, Abel should get another few starts to turn things around as Zebby Matthews outing tonight (3 HRs allowed---one of which to the immortal Mickey Gasper) for SP was putrid

Give Matthews the credit he deserves…it was 4 HRs allowed, not 3.

[Hunter4848]

17 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

The Orioles, Royals, and Rays are 5-3 against the Twins. And 5-11 against everyone else.

Also, I realize ABS is something new, and so it’s going to be commented on frequently, especially early on. Still, the early ABS fails, and the subsequent strike zone, had zero to do with the trajectory and eventual outcome of this game.

Also interesting…if the Twins had taken it down to the studs this offseason and traded Lopez, Ryan, AND Buxton…and for nothing but minor league prospects…their record right now would be no worse than….3-5. But yes, with less of that false ‘hope’ the masses never grow tired of buying from the Pohlads.

It is truly amazing the amount of suckers that continue to believe the Pohlads.

[USAFChief]

24 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

The Orioles, Royals, and Rays are 5-3 against the Twins. And 5-11 against everyone else.

Also, I realize ABS is something new, and so it’s going to be commented on frequently, especially early on. Still, the early ABS fails, and the subsequent strike zone, had zero to do with the trajectory and eventual outcome of this game. The write-up kinda insinuates otherwise.

Also interesting…if the Twins had taken it down to the studs this offseason and traded Lopez, Ryan, AND Buxton…and for nothing but minor league prospects…their record right now would be no worse than….3-5. But yes, with less of that false ‘hope’ the masses never grow tired of buying from the Pohlads.

Yeah, the Twins haven't exactly played a tough schedule to date.

 

The ABS challenge thing is just stupid. Leave it to MLB to make matters worse.

If you're going with an electronic zone, then just go with an electronic zone. All this challenge system does, is add controversy.

[jkcarew]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

Yeah, the Twins haven't exactly played a tough schedule to date.

 

The ABS challenge thing is just stupid. Leave it to MLB to make matters worse.

If you're going with an electronic zone, then just go with an electronic zone. All this challenge system does, is add controversy.

That’s where it’ll be eventually, I suppose…as I doubt they go back now.

[Danchat]

Looks like Wallner is heading down the 2024 route of having a putrid first couple of weeks... and the team's fascination with Outman needs to end. He's not a MLB caliber player and they have obvious upgrades waiting in St. Paul.

I'm down for giving Abel a couple more starts, let him take his lumps and see if he figures anything out against MLB hitting. I have more faith that he will break through than Ober regaining his prior form.

[Blyleven2011]

Well after 2 wins , it was bound to happen they would play a real lousy game ...

It was a team effort on lack of consistency ...

No fire + no heart = no win ...

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

The ABS challenge thing is just stupid. Leave it to MLB to make matters worse.

It's made more noticeable because of the inept strategy the Twins batters use.  Today Josh Bell tapped his helmet with two outs and the bases empty on a 2-2 pitch called a strike.  Supposing that the third strike got overturned, what tiny fraction of a run on average would stand to be gained by extending this failed inning, versus the risk of losing half your game allotment of challenges that early?  Success wouldn't even have translated directly into a baserunner.

Wallner's already embarrassed himself twice with ABS challenges.  The manager needs to lay out the ground rules for a batter challenge - it has to be with a 3-ball count, or a late inning with runners on, and so forth - or else just tell them don't ever challenge period and save wear and tear on their limited brain cells and reserve those calls for their catchers on defense.

[David HK]

Heh... Normal Service has been resumed... 😂

[mikelink45]

My biggest take away is how lousy our defense is - including Caratini at Catcher.  If we are going to let Jeffers go and replace him with Caratini there will be a new SB record.

And Matt Wallner - 5 hits, 16 Ks.  Where are the coaches.  Add in the missed ABS challenges and Wallner is a net negative. -0.2 WAR already.  He has talent, can anyone get him to show it?

[CRF]

Yeah, I know Abel hasn't looked that great in his first two games, but I'd like to see him stay in the rota for a while longer and see if he can figure some things out. If he's still having problems at the end of April, then put him on the St Paul shuttle. It's not like this team is going anywhere. Abels stuff is good, but his command isn't...at least not right now. I'm inclined to give him a pass on last night because of the weather...it was brutal out there. I don't know how anyone could have gotten a feel for anything in those conditions. Baseball should not be played in that crap. Matz seemed fine, but we can't hit lefties no matter what, so it doesn't prove much. At this point, I'd rather have Abel in there than Ober. A little better weather on tap for today, so let's see if we can take the series before the kittys get here. 

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, Hunter4848 said:

It is truly amazing the amount of suckers that continue to believe the Pohlads.

Like who? I think the overwhelming majority of Twins fans expected them to lose more games than they win this season.

[DJL44]

It is abundantly clear that the players with the most success challenging pitches are the catchers. Shelton shouldn't allow hitters to make challenges at all until the 7th inning. The Twins pitchers need all the help they can get.

[DJL44]

36 minutes ago, CRF said:

At this point, I'd rather have Abel in there than Ober. 

I certainly have more hope that Abel's performance will improve with more experience in the rotation. Ober is trying to keep his career alive after losing his stuff.

[Whitey333]

To me the ABS system is ok.  I think the Twins continue to do a terrible job of using it and then blowing their challenges on early game challenges of much significance.  It's quite obvious some players are more interested in their personal stats and "looks" than a team concept.  It comes across as selfish.  And Outman?  He doesn't belong on this roster.  So what if he doesn't have any options.  Release him.  He is just taking up space.

[DJL44]

8 games in so you can multiply by 20 and  project statistics.

[jmlease1]

Abel is definitely reminding everyone that spring training stats mean nothing. I wouldn't send him down yet, though. I'd like to see how he does with warmer weather and show him a little more faith. It's not like this is a team that anyone should expect to be in the playoffs, and it's definitely not a playoff team if younger players aren't contributing, so this is a time to give a player like Abel more leash.

The roster construction really doesn't give this team much room for error against LHP. It's not great. Outman certainly isn't helping (though his replacement options aren't going to help against LHP much) and I think it's notable how little he's actually playing. Only 1 start (and that was because of injury) and 20 innings. I'd say even the Twins staff knows that he's not a real player. Probable black mark on Zoll for keeping him on this roster, and we're almost certainly stuck with him through at least april unless he gets a mystery injury like the legendary NBA "sore back" trick.

[Peter]

Ugly loss!!! All of you have to realize it’s a growth process!!! We are a small town team with kids who’ve never played in the big leagues as well big cities!!! We aren’t supposed to beat the big city teams-Flush this down the toilet and get win today!!! Huge week with big city Detroit and Toronto upcoming!!! As always let’s go twins!!!

[Hunter4848]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Like who? I think the overwhelming majority of Twins fans expected them to lose more games than they win this season.

Just look at any article on this website and you will find pohlad pocket protectors 

[RpR]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

My biggest take away is how lousy our defense is - including Caratini at Catcher.  If we are going to let Jeffers go and replace him with Caratini there will be a new SB record.

And Matt Wallner - 5 hits, 16 Ks.  Where are the coaches.  Add in the missed ABS challenges and Wallner is a net negative. -0.2 WAR already.  He has talent, can anyone get him to show it?

Right now Caratini's caught stealing rate is 37.5 percent, 0 wild pitches, 0 passed balls; Jeffers' caught stealing rate is 0 percent, 0 wild pitches, 4 passed balls.

[Parfigliano]

Outman still bad.  Who knew?

[jorgenswest]

Bad game made worse by constant chatter about ABS by the radio team. Let’s talk about baseball. ABS is not baseball strategy. It shouldn’t part of the game. If it is a strike. Call it a strike. If it is a ball. Call it a ball. Let the players play the game. Play ball.

 

[DJL44]

35 minutes ago, Hunter4848 said:

Just look at any article on this website and you will find pohlad pocket protectors 

Look hard enough on the internet and you can find just about any opinion. There are few people who believe this Twins team is built for contending. Most of the people attending games don’t believe that.

[Jeff K]

2 hours ago, CRF said:

Yeah, I know Abel hasn't looked that great in his first two games, but I'd like to see him stay in the rota for a while longer and see if he can figure some things out. If he's still having problems at the end of April, then put him on the St Paul shuttle. It's not like this team is going anywhere. Abels stuff is good, but his command isn't...at least not right now. I'm inclined to give him a pass on last night because of the weather...it was brutal out there. I don't know how anyone could have gotten a feel for anything in those conditions. Baseball should not be played in that crap. Matz seemed fine, but we can't hit lefties no matter what, so it doesn't prove much. At this point, I'd rather have Abel in there than Ober. A little better weather on tap for today, so let's see if we can take the series before the kittys get here. 

I agree with your comments about Abel.  Let's see how he does when he pitches in actual baseball weather.

[Nshore]

90% of the game is half mental.  Somebody needs to convince Abel that every game is a revenge game against the Phillies.  Abel is only 24.  Even Viola and Santana took their lumps when they first came up.  He'll be alright - I think.

[ashbury]

18 minutes ago, Jeff K said:

I agree with your comments about Abel.  Let's see how he does when he pitches in actual baseball weather.

The other team pitched in the same conditions.  Or do you think our batters are also uniquely affected by this typical early spring weather?

[Jeff K]

15 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The other team pitched in the same conditions.  Or do you think our batters are also uniquely affected by this typical early spring weather?

Human beings all react differently.  I'm just saying let's see how Abel does in warmer weather.  

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, Jeff K said:

Human beings all react differently.  I'm just saying let's see how Abel does in warmer weather.  

It gets cold in October too, which is the month I really care about.  Maybe even Game 7 in November these days.