Who Hits First? Sorting Through the 2026 Twins Leadoff Options

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

With a new manager in Derek Shelton, there are always questions about how specific lineup and roster decisions will play out. Over the weekend, the Twins named Joe Ryan as the team’s Opening Day starter, checking one major decision off the list before the regular season begins.

Another question carries just as much intrigue, though: Who should be the Twins' leadoff hitter?

The answer is not as simple as it once was. Teams across baseball have shifted their thinking in recent decades, prioritizing getting their best hitters more plate appearances by placing them at or near the top of the lineup. The logic is straightforward. More trips to the plate mean more opportunities to alter the game.

At the same time, the sport has reintroduced elements that once defined traditional leadoff hitters. With rule changes encouraging stolen bases and more action on the basepaths, players who can get on base and create chaos still hold significant value. With the advent of the ABS challenge system, we could see a return of OBP-over-power guys, in general, regardless of whether speed is part of the package. Finding the right balance is where Shelton’s decision becomes interesting.

Who Will Do It? Byron Buxton
Reasons For: It feels like the easiest answer to the leadoff question is Buxton. He's the Twins’ best all-around hitter and one of their most dynamic offensive players. He has expressed comfort hitting at the top of the lineup, and putting him there ensures he will accumulate the most at-bats over the course of the season. There is also a growing trend of elite hitters occupying the leadoff spot, with stars like Shohei Ohtani doing it for contending teams.

Reasons Against: There is an inherent tradeoff when your best hitter bats first. In the opening inning, there's no one on base ahead of him. Beyond that, the bottom of the lineup often provides less consistent on-base production, limiting RBI opportunities when the order turns over. While Buxton maximizes plate appearances in this role, it does not always maximize run-producing situations. Moreover, for all the things Buxton does well, he has a .308 career on-base percentage, and even since the start of 2024, that number is .330. That's a fine figure, but it's underwhelming for a leadoff man. Buxton's skill set is better suited to the No. 3 spot.

Who Should Do It? Luke Keaschall
Reasons For: Keaschall brings a more traditional leadoff profile, with a modern twist. He showed an ability to get on base during his rookie season and was efficient on the bases, going 14 for 17 in stolen base attempts despite limited playing time. His skill set could allow him to function as a true table setter, creating opportunities for Buxton to drive in runs from the number two spot. On Sunday, the Twins put this one-two punch into action, so there may be a chance it comes to fruition. 

Reasons Against: Keaschall has just over 200 major-league plate appearances, and some regression would not be surprising. Asking him to handle the leadoff role on a daily basis could add unnecessary pressure at this stage of his development, especially since he missed development time in the minors due to injury. The Twins may prefer to deploy him in different lineup spots to take advantage of matchups and ease that burden.

Who Could Do It?
Matt Wallner is one of the more unconventional options. Minnesota experimented with him in the leadoff spot against right-handed pitching last season, and the results were encouraging at times. Last season, he posted an .808 OPS against right-handed starters. His power profile is not typical for the role, but his ability to produce against righties gives Shelton a matchup-based alternative.

Ryan Jeffers could factor into the equation as well, especially against left-handed pitching. He's been one of the team’s most productive right-handed bats in those situations, posting strong numbers that could justify giving him extra plate appearances at the top of the lineup when Buxton isn't in the order. Last season, Jeffers posted an .885 OPS when facing lefties and a .910 OPS when facing left-handed starting pitchers.

Then there's Brooks Lee, a player once viewed as a prototypical leadoff hitter thanks to his bat-to-ball skills and approach. Those traits have yet to show up (and, indeed, contact is less important than plate discipline at the top of the lineup; Lee has never demonstrated good patience), but the organization still believes in his offensive upside. If he takes a step forward, he could reenter the conversation later in the year.

Shelton’s first few lineup cards will be closely watched, but this is unlikely to be a one-time decision. The Twins have multiple viable options, each offering a different look depending on the matchup, health, and performance.

Buxton remains the most logical choice to open the season, simply because of his talent and impact. However, Keaschall represents an intriguing alternative who could shift the lineup dynamic if he continues to develop. Meanwhile, players like Wallner, Jeffers, and Lee provide flexibility that could allow Shelton to adjust on the fly.

In today’s game, the leadoff spot is less about fitting a mold and more about maximizing value. The Twins have the pieces to experiment, and how Shelton deploys them could quietly become one of the defining storylines of the 2026 season.

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Who should be the team's leadoff hitter? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[DarrenPS]

Ideally you have the speedy OBP guy at 1, a guy like Keaschall at 2 Buxton at 3 and a guy like Wallner at 4... If Austin Martin can hit righties and maintain a .400 OBP he could one day be that guy

At the moment, I would do Keaschall 1 Buxton 2 and then mix up the rest of the lineup for 3, 4, 5 depending on who you're against day in and day out, with no set guys other than those two

I don't personally love Wallner at 1. He has the pop like Schwarber, sure, but way too many 3-4 pitch strikeouts as well, leave him later in lineups 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Keaschall leading off with Buxton at 2 would start games off really strong. After that, I guess we'll see, If Lewis comes around (that feels like a big IF) and Wallner can get back to his 2024 levels, then adding Bell and Jeffers in there somewhere at least makes a credible top 5 or 6 or so. 

[IndianaTwin]

23 minutes ago, DarrenPS said:

Ideally you have the speedy OBP guy at 1, a guy like Keaschall at 2 Buxton at 3 and a guy like Wallner at 4... If Austin Martin can hit righties and maintain a .400 OBP he could one day be that guy

At the moment, I would do Keaschall 1 Buxton 2 and then mix up the rest of the lineup for 3, 4, 5 depending on who you're against day in and day out, with no set guys other than those two

I don't personally love Wallner at 1. He has the pop like Schwarber, sure, but way too many 3-4 pitch strikeouts as well, leave him later in lineups 

If you are thinking about pitch counts, Wallner’s 3.93 pitches per plate appearance last year trailed only Julien (4.17), Jeffers (4.03), Bader (3.98) and Clemens (3.94) among those with 200+ plate appearances. So essentially tied for second among returnees. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

The tempting choice after last year is Martin - .374 OBP (near elite) with no power. Classic lead off guy if he can replicate that. Martin, the Buxton, then Keaschall, then Wallner. Moves your power guys back where they can hit with runners on base. Big bet on Martin, though. 

[Nshore]

It seems like a set lineup is a thing of the past.  They now go with a shape shifting lineup based on the stats that R2D2 spits out against the pitcher of the day.  

[AceWrigley]

Brooks Lee leading off, eh? Hmmm . . . maybe. Just think of the number of commercials you could get in before he reaches the next base,

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Where is Little Albie Pearson when we need him? Or "The Walking Man", Eddie Yost?

[Rosterman]

Austin Martin perhaps, followed by Keaschall and Buxton in the coveted #3 position?

[Gamblerssoftball]

18 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Austin Martin perhaps, followed by Keaschall and Buxton in the coveted #3 position?

Makes sense to me.

[Yoke]

If Martin keeps up the OBP, he wouldn’t be a bad option. If not, you can put him at 8 or 9 so when he does get on base, his speed is a threat for Keaschall or Buxton at the top of the order. Maybe gets them better pitches to hit.

[Old Twins Hat]

Against RH pitchers
 

Keaschall

Buxton

Wallner

Bell

Jeffers/Caratini

Lewis

Lee

DH/Clemens

LF/Larnach

Against LH pitchers

Keaschall

Buxton

Lewis

Bell

Jeffers

Wallner

DH

Lee

Martin

Hoping for the best.  Could use a RH stick.  And between Outman and Larnach, Twins are showing their lack of talent.  Gabriel Gonzalez should be up pretty quick.

 

 

[JD-TWINS]

14 hours ago, DarrenPS said:

Ideally you have the speedy OBP guy at 1, a guy like Keaschall at 2 Buxton at 3 and a guy like Wallner at 4... If Austin Martin can hit righties and maintain a .400 OBP he could one day be that guy

At the moment, I would do Keaschall 1 Buxton 2 and then mix up the rest of the lineup for 3, 4, 5 depending on who you're against day in and day out, with no set guys other than those two

I don't personally love Wallner at 1. He has the pop like Schwarber, sure, but way too many 3-4 pitch strikeouts as well, leave him later in lineups 

I don’t disagree on Keaschall/Buxton - even Martin leading off. Wallner doesn’t get me excited either.

Martin hitting right handed pitching would be nice but I doubt he’ll get everyday AB’s v. RH pitching with Team’s multiple LH hitting options.

The kicker though is the “maintain a .400 OBP” for Martin or ANYONE in our line-up. If he has a .350 OBP I’ll be surprised & ecstatic!! Again, if any guys in our line-up get to .350 OBP for the year - great!

[Fire Dan Gladden]

You want your best hitter batting leadoff. Each spot in the lineup gains 15-20 PA over the next over the course of the season. You want your best hitter getting the most PA.

I can understand the argument for pitch count, or OBP possibly driving that, but "leadoff" only matters once per game. The way things look now: Buxton/Keaschall in slots 1&2, followed by Wallner/Bell in 3&4

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Old Twins Hat said:

Against RH pitchers
 

Keaschall

Buxton

Wallner

Bell

Jeffers/Caratini

Lewis

Lee

DH/Clemens

LF/Larnach

Against LH pitchers

Keaschall

Buxton

Lewis

Bell

Jeffers

Wallner

DH

Lee

Martin

Hoping for the best.  Could use a RH stick.  And between Outman and Larnach, Twins are showing their lack of talent.  Gabriel Gonzalez should be up pretty quick.

 

 

I'd probably switch Lewis and Jeffers against lefties, but otherwise I think this is a good guess.

[chpettit19]

Keaschall and Buxton 1-2 in whatever order Buxton prefers.

Martin is a better 9-hole hitter than leadoff. As @Fire Dan Gladden said, leadoff only matters in the first. Get your best hitters the most at bats. Right now that's Buxton and likely Keaschall. If Wallner can carry over his successful spring and get back to his 2023/24 version of himself for a whole season then he's the 3 hitter.

A number of guys we're all begging to figure it out, but Buxton is the only proven guy and I'd put him in whichever spot he prefers between the 1 and 2 holes. Keaschall has looked really good to me this spring and after his performance last year I'd give him the leg up on being the next best hitter as of today. So he gets the other top spot. From there it's filling in lefty righty hitters to make the other manager actually have to think about their strategy and advancing whoever is performing best to the top of the lineup behind those 2.

 

[jmlease1]

16 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Keaschall leading off with Buxton at 2 would start games off really strong. After that, I guess we'll see, If Lewis comes around (that feels like a big IF) and Wallner can get back to his 2024 levels, then adding Bell and Jeffers in there somewhere at least makes a credible top 5 or 6 or so. 

It'll be interesting to see if they split the RH bats up at the top of the order?

I could see them going Keaschall, Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Bell, Jeffers, Clemens/Outman, and Lee against RHP

Again LHP maybe it's Keaschall, Martin, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Bell, Jeffers, Caratini, and Lee? 

I think Keaschall gets the first chance at leadoff, and I'm fine with that. Would rather have Buxton lower down where he's more likely to have opportunities with runners on base? Martin is a reasonable choice too, but I think they'll give Keaschall the first bite and they're still likely to give Larnach et al more ABs in the OF to let Martin take the job.

It'll be interesting. I'm going to be very interested to see how aggressive this roster is on the bases; they have some guys with speed, but also some real plodders.

[Trov]

I am not predicting who, as I have not watched any spring games this year, but it will be telling on what kind of manager Shelton is depending on who he picks.  If we see Wallner or Jeffers we know he is very heavy analytics and we can expect basically Rocco type moves most of the time.  Maybe not always, but we will see a lot of that.  If it is more Lee or Keashall or Martin then we can see more old school type manager. 

I am not saying either is better, personally I like a hybrid, a mix of both old school feel, and new data driven.  It might also be a reflection on how important base stealing will be to Shelton.  If you got Jeffers against lefties leading off, like Rocco did, you are saying stolen bases mean nothing, I want the guy that can get on base hoping Buck will hit a bomb later that inning.  

[saviking]

Whatever you do don't put a some slow ahead of Buxton because it will keep him from taking an extra base. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

I am not predicting who, as I have not watched any spring games this year, but it will be telling on what kind of manager Shelton is depending on who he picks.  If we see Wallner or Jeffers we know he is very heavy analytics and we can expect basically Rocco type moves most of the time.  Maybe not always, but we will see a lot of that.  If it is more Lee or Keashall or Martin then we can see more old school type manager. 

I am not saying either is better, personally I like a hybrid, a mix of both old school feel, and new data driven.  It might also be a reflection on how important base stealing will be to Shelton.  If you got Jeffers against lefties leading off, like Rocco did, you are saying stolen bases mean nothing, I want the guy that can get on base hoping Buck will hit a bomb later that inning.  

For what it's worth, before he was fired last year, Shelton had Oneil Cruz leadoff more than anyone else on the Pirates (he had a .298 OBP, FYI). 91 PAs over 20 games with Ke'Bryan Hayes next at 23 PAs in 5 games. He used 11 total hitters in the leadoff spot before being fired in early May.

In 2024, Andrew McCutchen lead the team with 364 PAs in the leadoff spot in 81 games. Followed by Isiah Kiner-Falefa (179 in 40 games), Connor Joe (60 in 14), and Oneil Cruz (50 in 11). He used 15 total hitters in the leadoff spot that season.

In 2023, the leader was Ke'Bryan Hayes with 204 PAs in 45 games. Followed by Ji Hwan Bae (113 in 27 games), McCutchen (101 in 22 games), and Connor Joe (80 in 21 games). Used 15 hitters in the leadoff spot that season.

Take whatever you want from those numbers.

[Rosterman]

You also want, for the first three guys in the batting order, the fellows that DESERVE to get five at-bats in a game. At the back of the order you want the guys who you don't love seeing at bat, or can be pinch-hit for if you need to keep an inning alive (assuming you have a bench) so the top of the order gets a chance for continued production at the plate.

[purplesoldier4u]

22 hours ago, DarrenPS said:

He has the pop like Schwarber, sure

Huh?

[DarrenPS]

48 minutes ago, purplesoldier4u said:

Huh?

He's not as good, he's not going to do it as consistently, but he has the bat speed and exit velocities to match, that's all that meant

[DocBauer]

To state the obvious, I've always believed in the deepest, most well balanced team you can field. OBVIOUSLY, you don't always have that based on roster talent, plus adding in bench players here and there. Though matchups also do have an affect.

Back when pitchers still hit in the NL, I believe it was Larussa who hit his pitchers 8th so the 9th hitter might have a better chance of being on base for the top of the order to potentially have a runner on base.

In my dreams for 2026, Keaschall would be the #1 hitter, followed by a quasi platoon of Roden/Martin in LF getting on base, having the ability to run and not block Buxton, and giving Buxton more chances to drive in runs. NOT the old fashioned speedy leadoff guy and a contract guy who could bunt someone over. I understand and embrace your best hitters getting the most AB in a game. It just makes sense. But IDEALLY, I'd still have TWO really nice hitters setting the table for my #3 and #4 hitters. I'm not sure that approach has changed in an IDEAL lineup. 

The simple reason being your LEADOFF hitter is ONLY guaranteed to actually LEADOFF ONCE. Now, you'd like to have a bottom of the order that doesn't STINK because your top of the order hitters have the potential to knock in runs also! But how many PA/AB over the course of the ENTIRE SEASON does your BEST hitter actually lose if he hits 2 or 3? It can't be more than a dozen. But how many RBI opportunities does he GAIN from that dozen with runners on base?

The way the lineup figures to be constructed currently...grrr from roster construction....Buxton is best at #2 with Keaschall at #1, even though I'd like to go a little "old school" with Buck at the 3 spot with ducks on the pond.

Keaschall sets the table, and Buck is OK at #2. Makes sense. DESPITE a poor ST...working on his new balance/approach...Lewis is STILL part of the OD lineup and should be. It's really up to HIM at this point. 

Bell or Wallner hits 3. I'm going with Bell only because he's a switch hitter and for his career he's been generally neutral. 

Wallner is next at #4. He's always going to be a bit streaky, but his power is crazy, he has a history of crunch hits and HIGH OPS before 2025, and he's looking like his previous 2023-24 self this spring.

Lewis bats #5 despite a poor spring. But the talent is still there. He's still working on a new approach. I'm still a believer he's going to get the new stoke with his talent to work even if it takes a couple weeks. 

Beyond that, it's who steps forward. 

Jeffers is a good bat, and a powerful one. Does his power return? Does Lee's bat improve to what we all thought it might be? Early returns are at least hopeful. 

If Larnach is the DH, where does he fit in? Despite where Rocco placed him, does hit fit in at 6th, 7th? Maybe 6th behind Jeffers? So Lee might be 8th ahead of Outman in LF at 9th?

MAYBE that roster works. But I like it a lot better if we were talking about Roden, or Rodriguez or many other possibilities that included prospects, but maybe even Wagaman as a role player other than just a collection of BS LF options in the OF that shouldn't be here.

But Keaschall should be the #1 and Buxton #2 even though a better lineup might place him at #3 for even more RBI opportunities. 

 

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

It'll be interesting to see if they split the RH bats up at the top of the order?

I could see them going Keaschall, Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Bell, Jeffers, Clemens/Outman, and Lee against RHP

Again LHP maybe it's Keaschall, Martin, Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Bell, Jeffers, Caratini, and Lee? 

I think Keaschall gets the first chance at leadoff, and I'm fine with that. Would rather have Buxton lower down where he's more likely to have opportunities with runners on base? Martin is a reasonable choice too, but I think they'll give Keaschall the first bite and they're still likely to give Larnach et al more ABs in the OF to let Martin take the job.

It'll be interesting. I'm going to be very interested to see how aggressive this roster is on the bases; they have some guys with speed, but also some real plodders.

I get you said “maybe” but Wallner in the 4 hole v. LH pitching is like ……. giving up! Anything ever, above 6th for him, is an issue ……. unless he actually gets K’s down to 30% and hits .240.

[JD-TWINS]

Larnach, v. RIGHT HANDED PITCHING, is easily the 3rd best hitter in the line-up. Hate on him, talk about his defense, talk about how he didn’t hit well enough in ‘25 (because 20+% of his AB’s were v. LH pitching) ……… he can hit 2, 3, or 6, or 7 and fit well with other guys. How much does one value Bell - Caratini - Wallner v. Larnach is what it comes down to ultimately.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I get you said “maybe” but Wallner in the 4 hole v. LH pitching is like ……. giving up! Anything ever, above 6th for him, is an issue ……. unless he actually gets K’s down to 30% and hits .240.

with this roster construction, though, you have 1 of 2 choices vs LHP. stick one of them in-between a couple of righties higher in the lineup and roll the dice that it doesn't kill a rally, or stack a couple of them at the bottom and take an inning off. Wallner might be the least bad choice of our LH hitting OF/1B/DH types, because Clemens is unplayable vs LHP, Larnach stinks at it too, and does anyone have faith in Outman? one of them seemingly has to start against LHP.

Which ain't great.