How Extending Pablo López Could Lengthen Minnesota’s Competitive Window

[Western SD Fan]

Signing Pablo to an extension likely only makes sense after a new CBA is in place, if the entire 2027 season isn't wiped out.  By that time, we will likely know Pablo's progression and a potential return to the field.  If an extension is discussed, a salary that is laden with accelerators, performance bonuses, and buyouts would be great.  Paddack has already been mentioned.  Pineda also signed a similar contract following the 2019 season.  From a PR standpoint, it may be important to at least approach both Pablo and Joe Ryan with extensions as they have really spent a lot on marketing for Pablo although I don't see Ryan signing any extension with the Twins.

[Dawgzilla]

Competitive window, competitive window?  They aren't in one with this team, let alone in future, being they (ownership) doesn't spend because "we are a small market/budget team"!!!!  Sell the team, or move it!!!!!  You won't get fan interest reved up with status quo!  We have 1 star (Buxton) and 3 very good players (Keashall, Ryan, and maybe Lewis....Lopez doesn't count, being he is hurt)!  The rest of the team is a box of Hamburger Helper...a cheap, really no effort to make, quick meal!

[Gamblerssoftball]

Because I don't know where to look, I'll ask this. Do the Twins carry insurance for injuries to their highest salaried players? Or did Pablo's injury save the Twins money? Or is the premium too great to afford? Or even offered?

[Marcusesm]

Signing a pitcher who just underwent TJ surgery to a contract extension is so profoundly stupid, I'm pretty confident the Twins will do it.

[Nshore]

I don't think I've ever seen a wider gap going into a season between what ownership thinks they see on the field (competitive) and what most people can see with their own eyes (desperation/rebuild).  Should make it interesting.   Shelton's seat was already red hot before he even signed his contract and sat down.  Losing Lopez makes his job impossible. 

I'd oppose extending Lopez.  But if Lopez has an interest in coaching after his playing days, they should try to hang on to him.  He's one of the most knowledgeable people I've ever heard interviewed about pitching.

[cjm0926]

I was thinking about this recently, and I think it would be wise to look into this. Maybe a 1 year extension with an added team option for the Twins which would look something like this.

2027 - $21.75 million (last year of previous deal)

2028 - $10 million

2029 (Age 33 season) - $22 million team option ($4 million buyout)

This gives Lopez some peace of mind as he won't feel the need to rush his rehab, having a guaranteed $14 million added, and gives the Twins a good chance at getting some surplus value if Pablo is anywhere close to his pre-surgery form in 2028. This structure matches the Bieber extension pretty closely, except it adds $6 million to the option but turns it into a team option instead of player, making it a net $18M decision.

Also important to note, Ober and Ryan are also free agents after the '27 season, and although there is a lot of time for young arms to prove themselves before then, really the only other arm that has proven anything at the big league level is aside from the current top 3 is SWR, which I think makes the short-term extension a smart move, if it is something Pablo is interested in.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, cjm0926 said:

I was thinking about this recently, and I think it would be wise to look into this. Maybe a 1 year extension with an added team option for the Twins which would look something like this.

2027 - $21.75 million (last year of previous deal)

2028 - $10 million

2029 (Age 33 season) - $22 million team option ($4 million buyout)

This gives Lopez some peace of mind as he won't feel the need to rush his rehab, having a guaranteed $14 million added, and gives the Twins a good chance at getting some surplus value if Pablo is anywhere close to his pre-surgery form in 2028. This structure matches the Bieber extension pretty closely, except it adds $6 million to the option but turns it into a team option instead of player, making it a net $18M decision.

Also important to note, Ober and Ryan are also free agents after the '27 season, and although there is a lot of time for young arms to prove themselves before then, really the only other arm that has proven anything at the big league level is aside from the current top 3 is SWR, which I think makes the short-term extension a smart move, if it is something Pablo is interested in.

Pablo Lopez has an existing contract for $80MM. He's got piece of mind.

Your contract proposal is an absolute insult. There is utterly no world where that contract offer isn't looked at as absolutely ridiculous.

If Lopez pitches 2027 to the tune of a 3.75 ERA/FIP, he's going to get $25MM+ AAV for 3 years, with maybe a little less for 4 years. My guess is somebody will happily pony up 4yrs and $90MM for Lopez at that point, even with the qualifying offer he'll get from the Twins (if it still exists). Even if Lopez has a mediocre 2027, he'll get more than your offer. Even if he absolutely sucked he'd get more than you're offering.

Bieber got 2yrs and $26MM after having missed almost all of the last 2 years and having missed a big chunk of 2023 as well.

I'm not nearly as much of a Lopez guy as other people on the site, but give him at least a little credit for not being trash.

[DocBauer]

I guess I'm going to go against the grain here. I think Pablo likes being a Twin, he's super classy, super smart, works is butt off, and is a natural leader. He's already locked in for 2027. Period. But if I were to bet on a pitcher coming back from a 2nd TJ surgery...not all that uncomon these days...to return to previous form it would be Pablo.

I'm probably more engaged with the idea of an extension for Ryan, but that is a different discussion.

If Lopez was excellent in 2027 upon his return, he might be worth the qualifying offer. And that wouldn't be a lot more than his '27 salary. And if he didn't re-sign, you get a draft pick. But again, maybe a re-sign of Ryan makes more sense, and just wait and see if Lopez is worth the QO at the end of 2027. 

BUT, I could see offering him something like $15M for 2028 with escalators, and a larger deal for 2029 with an out clause. For him, it means guaranteed $ for 2028, and the opportunity for a different deal in 2029. Basically it means buying 1 more year of FA in case 2027 takes him a while to get all the velocity and command back. He then throws in 2028 with $15M+ due to escalators, and can then opt out for a better deal at that time.

It's a risk/risk for both sides. But I can reasons for both sides to like that deal. And it would make sense to me. 

The "good news" is neither side has to even think about this for months! NO HYPERBOLY, but the Twins DO currently have arms in SWR, Bradley, Abel, and Matthews...and others...that have the talent and opportunity to make a statement in 2026. So the entire context of an extension could change during the upcoming season. 

We are in a very nice "what IF" scenario with those arms in addition to Morris, Prielipp, Rojas, and a couple even younger arms that may climb the ladder in 2026, to make this a moot point. It's not crazy to see SWR's new splitter to work for an entire season, raising his bar. It's not crazy to see Bradley or Matthews or Abel to take the next step. And it's not crazy to see Morris and Rojas, and maybe Prielipp to take another step forward and make 2027...maybe even the first half if not the 2nd half of 2026...interesting and exciting.

That might coincide with position players debuting for greater excitement in the same time frame.

Again, maybe an extension for Ryan is a better focus to lead the staff?

I have, do, and will ALWAYS OBJECT to the "THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A PITCHING PROSPECT" mantra? Who the hell ever came up with something so silly? Of course they're prospects! That's like saying there are no OF prospects because all prospects don't make it. Just RIDICULOUS stuff!

Losing Lopez absolutely sucks! And I simply can't paint a nice picture and sell it for anything. But if there IS a silver lining, it might be OPPORTUNITY for SWR, Bradley, Matthews, and Abel to KNOW it's THEIR TIME to shine. And it might always be pretty, but 2026 is an opportunity for ALL of them to prove they belong. The talent is THERE. Do they take a step forward is the question. 

We have Lopez for 2027. That's locked in. Same for Ryan and Ober. It's an unknown today about the future of all 3 of them. So the OP is really early in the time frame. I can see a really good reason to re-sign Lopez for at least one additional year. But I can also see where maybe Ryan is the better choice for an extension. And I can see a collection of really interesting arms already throwing that could change the entire collection of rotation arms for 2027 and 2028.

Once again, I can see many reasons to give Pablo some kind of deal. But the good news is we don't even have to deal with this for almost a year.

 

 

[Bodie]

Nope...

We just got rid of an former Cy Young winner signed at a "bargain" price. Two seasons (while being paid for 3) basically clogging up the back end of the rotation (with all that vaunted pipeline talent!) with results that could have been replaced with ~3 AAA disposable free agents at 20% of the cost (damned cheap Pohlads!).  

This injury and resulting surgery likely ends his productive career as a front of the rotation arm as a Twin. That is a shame. With his diminishing returns statistically before the TJ, I just can't see a reason to do it.  Almost no chance he's takes a pay cut to extend with this gang of misfit toys. And if he does, it is confirmation that we are in for another Paddack "buy 3 get 2" bargains.  It's not like the Twins have a stellar record of rehabbing mature pitchers to inspire much hope for that.

$10m isn't exactly chicken feed when constructing a Twins roster. And he'll never be pitching at that price anyway!  This isn't just a no, but a hard no.

 

[twinstalker]

Bieber?  Bieber didn't have a contract covering his injury year, Pablo does.  Exactly how would the Twins afford him in 2028?  

[dxpavelka]

Couldn't hurt.  Might also want to consider making a similar move with the 1B guy who is going to pitch this year and maybe price himself out of reach.

[dxpavelka]

Almost forgot that the only thing this fan base hates more than ownership not spending money is ownership spending money.

[dxpavelka]

3 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Bieber?  Bieber didn't have a contract covering his injury year, Pablo does.  Exactly how would the Twins afford him in 2028?  

IF the team is willing to spend money why in the hell would any fan question how they can afford it? Swear to God the only thing this fan base hates more than the team not spending money is the team spending money.

[Major League Ready]

18 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

IF the team is willing to spend money why in the hell would any fan question how they can afford it? Swear to God the only thing this fan base hates more than the team not spending money is the team spending money.

Because a team with half the revenue of some other teams has to get twice the production per dollar spent.  Spending wisely is absolutely essential to success.  NFL/NBA/NHL fans understand this in leagues where spending is relatively equal.  The payroll for top MLB teams is triple the bottom teams.  We should all be very concerned with how wisely the available payroll is spent.

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, dberthia said:

There is no current competitive window. He should've been traded during the offseason when he still had some value.

There’s all kinds of things that “could have been done” ………he’s a great Clubhouse guy and, when healthy, a Top 10-15 starter in the A.L. Seems extending him makes perfect sense in case the Team gets to actually be closer to “competitive” AND it also gives them a trade chip, with control, at a reasonable price for those who might want him going forward. There’s always risk in an extension - is it worthwhile?

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Bieber?  Bieber didn't have a contract covering his injury year, Pablo does.  Exactly how would the Twins afford him in 2028?  

The payroll for ‘26 is 2/3 of what it was in ‘23. How does that make any sense? Lopez is 20% of the Team’s ridiculously low total of $105M in ‘26. Going forward who eats up all the salary $$?

If the Twins can’t afford Pablo with the salaries that surround him now and into ‘27 & ‘28, the owners need to complete a sale of the Club!

[JD-TWINS]

This is not specifically on topic but it does relate to player affordability and the logic of an extension in the near-term.

Do people/fans here actually think that with Baseball at its current wave of positivity relative to $$$$, there will be an extended work stoppage in ‘27? The issues, IMO, are not so much between the Players Union and the Owners but rather within the Owners. I realize that collusion isn’t an option but if the Teams that spend 2.5-4.0 times as much don’t have any competent competition, the game will lose National interest. I think that’s logical. All those around the table throughout ‘26 must see this. This may seem naive, but I don’t see the owners shutting down their current shine with the masses of the game’s fans by locking players out and not playing baseball.

[Cris E]

It's always a good idea to get a good player under a cheap contract whenever possible.  It's also a good idea to get as big a contract as you can since you never know when your arm will explode and your career will end. 32 years old is not old for pitchers in MLB, especially guys who know how to pitch and are not making it on mindless velocity. His numbers may have gone down two years ago, but that's because he was in the CY conversation three years ago and was injured the past two seasons. Get a deal that puts money in his pocket, protects the team from him missing too much time and both can succeed. @DocBauer has it right when he calls for expensive performance bonuses for IP or starts so he can make bank when he can take the ball and he doesn't cost a fortune when he can't

Stepping back, I think there will be a minimum number of missed games due to the CBA. I also expect way more revenue sharing, a floor and a change in the luxury tax rates to make an effective ceiling for most situations (eg doubling current rates and adding more tiers in larger steps.) They'll buy off the players with expansion jobs and they'll buy off the rich owners by giving them the expansion money. What that would mean is teams like the Twins will need to sign contracts like this or a Ryan extension to hit the numbers by 2029. 

Of course I could be wrong, which is why this deal won't get done until next year. Well, it won't unless Pablo takes complete bath on this or accepts a deal like @DocBauerproposed with a low base plus a bunch of performance clauses. 

[laloesch]

21 hours ago, Original_JB said:

Your Stockholm Syndrome is showing. The Twins need to decide if they are "trying to win baseball games" or be "in the entertainment business". Sure, Pablo's a great guy, gives a good interview, is a "plus" in the community, loved in the clubhouse....... None of those things put "W"s in the win column.  If he is favorable to a 1 year "make good" type contract with a team option, sure. But multi-year extensions with the league turmoil coming up? C'mon.

Agreed.

[laloesch]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

This is not specifically on topic but it does relate to player affordability and the logic of an extension in the near-term.

Do people/fans here actually think that with Baseball at its current wave of positivity relative to $$$$, there will be an extended work stoppage in ‘27? The issues, IMO, are not so much between the Players Union and the Owners but rather within the Owners. I realize that collusion isn’t an option but if the Teams that spend 2.5-4.0 times as much don’t have any competent competition, the game will lose National interest. I think that’s logical. All those around the table throughout ‘26 must see this. This may seem naive, but I don’t see the owners shutting down their current shine with the masses of the game’s fans by locking players out and not playing baseball.

i do.  There already has been some significant grumblings from many of owners (and not just the small and mid market teams) about how much the big dogs like the Dodgers and a few others are spending and this time it's enough that they might risk it.  The issue is not the Players Union or the amount of revenues the teams are bringing in, but how much they are allowed to spend and the deferred salary stuff.  That's what the complaining is all about behind closed doors and it's a completely legitimate gripe.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

19 hours ago, Gamblerssoftball said:

Because I don't know where to look, I'll ask this. Do the Twins carry insurance for injuries to their highest salaried players? Or did Pablo's injury save the Twins money? Or is the premium too great to afford? Or even offered?

I'm NOT the expert on this, so take this as a pretty good educated guess and hearing a few things over the past few years.  Twenty-five years ago or so, I think it was fairly common for contracts to be insured in order to lessen the risk for the team.  I also know that it is extremely hard to collect on those insurance policies, as it really only kicks in for a full season missed, not someone who just has a lot of nagging injuries.  However, I think as more TJ surgeries were happening to more players, the insurance companies were paying out more than they wanted to.  Hence, they raised the price. . . a lot, so that now it is to the point that it really isn't financially feasible to insure contracts for teams.  

[dxpavelka]

23 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Because a team with half the revenue of some other teams has to get twice the production per dollar spent.  Spending wisely is absolutely essential to success.  NFL/NBA/NHL fans understand this in leagues where spending is relatively equal.  The payroll for top MLB teams is triple the bottom teams.  We should all be very concerned with how wisely the available payroll is spent.

Not like extending Lopez and / or Ryan would be dollars poorly spent.  I keep hearing that the plan has to be to develop from within and spend on free agency to supplement when the window is deemed to be truly opened.  Nice theory but flawed.  1:  No one truly knows WHEN the window is / will open.  2:  Keeping your own guys is likely more affordable than bringing in outside guys when the time "right."  Forget not when we traded away the best starting pitcher we've developed in a generation and then spent a number of years blundering our need to find and identical replacement to allow us to compete.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Not like extending Lopez and / or Ryan would be dollars poorly spent.  I keep hearing that the plan has to be to develop from within and spend on free agency to supplement when the window is deemed to be truly opened.  Nice theory but flawed.  1:  No one truly knows WHEN the window is / will open.  2:  Keeping your own guys is likely more affordable than bringing in outside guys when the time "right."  Forget not when we traded away the best starting pitcher we've developed in a generation and then spent a number of years blundering our need to find and identical replacement to allow us to compete.

How many SPs do you see Milwaukee, Cleveland or Tampa extending?  Do you know something they don't?  Those three teams have proven their practices are better than other organizations so it's pretty damn hard to support an argument we should do the opposite of those teams.

[TJSweens]

I would say absolutely not. I love having Pablo on the Twins. He has been a real good pitcher, a leader and an all around class act. 

That said, a pitcher's recovery from a second UCL surgery is a bit of a crap shoot. A successful return from a first TJ is a very percentage. A second one has about a 65%  rate to return and about 42% return to previous form. They tend to throw fewer innings and have shortened careers.

Again, love Pablo, but this would just be low percentage move.

[dxpavelka]

22 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

How many SPs do you see Milwaukee, Cleveland or Tampa extending?  Do you know something they don't?  Those three teams have proven their practices are better than other organizations so it's pretty damn hard to support an argument we should do the opposite of those teams.

What's the ultimate goal?  You are right, I may not know something they don't.  I'll look into it and get back to you when I get done counting their rings.

[Chembry]

On 3/3/2026 at 12:35 PM, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I'm NOT the expert on this, so take this as a pretty good educated guess and hearing a few things over the past few years.  Twenty-five years ago or so, I think it was fairly common for contracts to be insured in order to lessen the risk for the team.  I also know that it is extremely hard to collect on those insurance policies, as it really only kicks in for a full season missed, not someone who just has a lot of nagging injuries.  However, I think as more TJ surgeries were happening to more players, the insurance companies were paying out more than they wanted to.  Hence, they raised the price. . . a lot, so that now it is to the point that it really isn't financially feasible to insure contracts for teams.  

You are correct in your assumptions,  Lopez's contract isn't insured for all the reasons you stated.  This has been confirmed, see the link to the Athletic article below. 

The insurance issue played a key role in several of the Puerto Rican players not being available for the WBC (Correa, Lindor, Caratini, Berrios, Pagan, and others).  Article also linked below.  Lindor would have missed the tournament anyway with the hamate injury, but insurers have taken more of a hard line stance on contract insurance.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7076530/2026/03/02/twins-camp-notes-pitching-defense-pohlad/

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/02/team-puerto-rico-considering-withdrawal-from-world-baseball-classic-amid-insurance-issues.html