3 Interesting Steamer Projections for 2026 Minnesota Twins

[Cody Pirkl]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Steamer is one of the more widely used projection systems in baseball. They use a formula that weights recent seasons, along with attempts to predict regression for players based on several factors. Looking ahead to 2026, Steamer has a few interesting predictions for the Twins roster.

Luke Keaschall Takes A Step Back... Offensively

Luke Keaschall was one of the few bright spots in 2025, slashing .302/.382/.445 across 207 plate appearances, good for 34% better than league average. Not many players are capable of earning a projection anywhere near that performance, but Steamer predicts a step back across the board.

Keaschall is projected for a .267/.350/.400 line. Steamer predicts a steep decline in batted-ball luck and power for him They still count on a solid 2.6 Wins Above Replacement, but interestingly enough, this is accounting for above-average defense from him. Anything is possible, but the defensive value is questionable, if Keaschall remains at second base.

 

The Twins will be relying on Keaschall to repeat as a legitimately great player in 2026, and Steamer doesn’t quite see that happening. He did show some signs of regression, and it may be worth baking in a step back from his elite performance in 2025, given the small sample.

 

Bailey Ober Is The #3 Starter, But Just Barely

Joe Ryan and Pablo López project as the Twins' top two starting pitchers for 2026, and Bailey Ober still comes in third. After Ober, the rest of the rotation feels like a toss-up, with candidates such as Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, and Simeon Woods Richardson. Despite Ober having an ostensibly undisputed spot in the rotation, assuming he’s still on the team, his projected value is almost exactly the same as many of these other names competing for spots.

Ober comes in at 2.0 WAR, with Bradley right behind at 1.9. Matthews and Woods Richardson project for 1.8 WAR. Ober’s lead on this group likely comes from the weight of his strong 2023 and 2024 seasons; his 2025 has only dragged his projections down.

 

This will be a big season for Ober, after physical concerns and a lack of velocity plagued him in 2025. With so many options to replace him if he continues to struggle, his hold on a rotation spot is as weak as it has been since 2023. With the Twins in need of all the help they can get, they’ll need vintage Bailey Ober, or to be quick to move off of him if he looks like his 2025 self.

 

The Bullpen is in Dire Straits

It should be no surprise that the Twins' bullpen projects as a real problem, but Steamer outlines just how big a hole it is. With Cole Sands and Kody Funderburk tied with projections of 0.4 WAR apiece, the 2025 Twins’ roster included seven relievers who were more valuable. That included Sands himself and Justin Topa, who will both return, but the state of the bullpen is bleak.

 

Steamer can only project based on the current roster, meaning the Twins can still drastically improve their outlook before the offseason is over by adding pieces. It’s also uncommon for Steamer to project potential relievers like John Klein, Marco Raya, Conner Prielipp, etc., for strong relief performances when they’ve been starters throughout the minor leagues and haven’t debuted yet. Nor should we ignore the possibility that one of Bradley, Matthews or Abel will move to the pen and have success.

The Twins have talked internally about rebuilding the relief corps. That's one avenue they can use to beat their projections. That being said, given their starting point in the bullpen, it’s hard to imagine a respectable performance from the current group. They will likely still need several successful external additions (as well as many of these up-and-coming arms) to hit their 90th-percentile outcomes to come anywhere close to 2025’s bullpen.

 

It’s worth noting that projection systems have been wrong about the Twins for several seasons now, typically predicting much more success than the team has actually achieved. Still, with some filling out of the roster still on the way, it’s interesting to look ahead and see what Steamer predicts for the Twins' 2026 roster.

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[Dawgzilla]

It is a dung show!!!!

 

MLB needs a salary cap and floor, more TV options (more on a cable option), realignment of divisions/more games against teams regionally, focus more on family affordability, etc. and these are just starters.  Two more teams could be added, like Nashville, Vegas, Montreal, or San Antonio.  Teams should add  one more player to roster (injuries are absurd).

[Jacksson]

Vegas is accounted for, that's where Oakland is moving.

Just waiting for the stadium to be built.

[CRF]

The only steamer I know...is Stanley Steamer. 

[thelanges5]

Still waiting for those external additions to the bullpen that Falvey was taking about. There is still time, but pitchers and catchers report in 5-6 weeks.

[arby58]

I do think that Ober gets undervalued, so I agree with Steamer. Interestingly, so does the Baseball Trade Value Simulator. It gives Ober a positive trade value of 21.0 - which is 9th highest among Twins assets. He's had some nice years, and last year was an injury-plagued year.

[h2oface]

It still disappoints that a guy as big as Ober can't throw the ball any harder than he does. And it is just getting worse.

[arby58]

1 hour ago, h2oface said:

It still disappoints that a guy as big as Ober can't throw the ball any harder than he does. And it is just getting worse.

Give him a break for last year, with a hip injury. Besides, he's never thrown that hard but had good results. Lots of pitchers (see Joe Ryan for the Twins, Greg Maddox and Mark Buerhle elsewhere) do well without throwing more than 95 mph on average.

[stringer bell]

55 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Give him a break for last year, with a hip injury. Besides, he's never thrown that hard but had good results. Lots of pitchers (see Joe Ryan for the Twins, Greg Maddox and Mark Buerhle elsewhere) do well without throwing more than 95 mph on average.

Add Jake Odorizzi and Scott Baker as former Twins without great velocity who had effective fastballs. Location and movement matter more than going from the 50th percentile to the 70th.

 

[GNess]

OK with the potential viability of these projections. The BP which is still a big pain point is still needing a few notable vet arms added to the mix - do we think this is the external additions DF has in mind? Can only hope so, because if not the season is "projected" to go off the rails.

[stringer bell]

I do expect Keaschall to come back to earth a little as a hitter, but if he is a plus base runner and average on defense, he is a real asset at 23 years old. The Twins haven't exceeded offensive projections since 2019, so maybe this will be another year when they surprise. If two of Lee, Lewis and Wallner step up and one rookie breaks out their offense looks a lot better. Lots of "ifs" I know, but why not be optimistic until they start keeping score for real?

[LewFordLives]

Yes, the bullpen is a mess. Do I trust the guy who is 100 percent responsible for creating the mess to fix it?

[TwinsDr2021]

7 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Add Jake Odorizzi and Scott Baker as former Twins without great velocity who had effective fastballs. Location and movement matter more than going from the 50th percentile to the 70th.

 

Maybe not the best examples, since both stuck around after age 29 but weren't really any good after that (they were good before that) and Ober is already 30.

[Fatbat]

The offseason is always loaded with ifs and hopes. This offseason especially because of selling the bullpen off. So far the FO has done little to get and MLB vet RP to sign. Everyone here rips the FO for running back the same MO every season so maybe this year they are switching it up.  Look for a massive rookie class thru out the whole roster. Everyone forgets that we added lots of prospects to an already strong farm system.  ‘26 is the time to roll with the rookies. Take some lumps and watch many players uber back and forth across the river.  
Its going to be a fun summer to watch the youngsters. 
Expect Ober to be solid. He is healthy… for now. 
Expect Keaschall to do things he always has done. Get on base and create havoc. There are several more exciting kids coming right behind him. 
Maybe more guys on this sight should simply expect more and better outcomes from the FO not making the same type of offseason signings. Of course, for me, this changes if/when the FO signs 5 washed up RP’s in the next 45 days and they tank the bullpen til July.  I will be the first guy to rip into the FO if thats the direction they choose to go. 

[Whitey333]

All these projections and analytical garbage from sites like Steamer and many others are a joke.  They are never wrong.  Are they? Are they?  It's not even serious discussion

[TopGunn#22]

11 hours ago, arby58 said:

I do think that Ober gets undervalued, so I agree with Steamer. Interestingly, so does the Baseball Trade Value Simulator. It gives Ober a positive trade value of 21.0 - which is 9th highest among Twins assets. He's had some nice years, and last year was an injury-plagued year.

I have noticed this as well arby58.  With all those young pitchers stacked up behind Ober, Bradley, Matthews, SWR, Abel, and you can throw Prielipp and Festa in there as well even if they might be in the BP, the Twins should be opening opportunities for THEM  to be a part of the rotation behind Lopez and Ryan.

With a value of 21.0 Ober COULD bring back something of substance.  Here's a list of players that have a similar "value" to Ober:  Jordan Lawler (SS/2B)  20.6.  Edgar Quero (C) 17.8.  Kyle Teel (C) 20.7.  Tristan Casas (1B) 18.1.  Franklin Arias (SS) 22.1.  Kristian Campbell (2B/CF) 19.4.  Heliot Ramos (OF) 16.0.  Jared Jones (SP) 14.9.  Jefferson Quero (C) 20.8.  Colt Cowser (OF) 26.1.  Colby Mayo (1B/3B) 18.1.  Brandon Sproat (SP) 22.5.  Jonah Tong (SP) 26.1. 

I'm not suggesting any of these players be traded straight up for Ober.  But I'd rather see the young pitchers compete for that #3 spot in the rotation and get something of value back for Ober.  If Ober could be moved for a young, Major league Catcher, the Twins would be able to trade Jeffers (15.3) to a team in need of catching and get something else of value back before Jeffers walks in FA. 

Looking at some of the young SP's, you have Jared Jones coming off of Tommy John surgery who has a lower value (14.9) but a higher ceiling.  Why would the Pirates make this trade?  For the same reason the Mets might consider Tong (26.1) or Sproat (22.5)...Ober is a veteran with a track record and the Mets are expected to compete for the division and the Pirates WANT to be more than a last place team with Paul Skenes.  No matter what the "potential" for a young SP, a solid, veteran #3 SP in a rotation has VALUE.  

[jmlease1]

I love seeing projections from things like STEAMER and ZIPS, just because it makes some people so incredibly angry. There's usually some good entertainment there as people rail against...math.

It'll be interesting to see where Keaschall lands. I think there's some regression in his hitting that we should expect, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if the batting average at least lands quite a bit higher than the projection here. I'm not surprised to see them seeing positives in his defense; with a good offseason and consistent reps throughout spring training, he really does have the tools to hold down 2B quite nicely. The clangs off the glove and some of the missed plays are likely to improve with reps, and we've never heard any issues with Keaschall's work ethic. The real question will be his arm, but with more time removed from the surgery and busted arm...well, we'll see? he doesn't need a great arm, just a consistent one, and the accuracy should improve (like everything else) with reps. Dude just hasn't played a ton in the field as a pro.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

All these projections and analytical garbage from sites like Steamer and many others are a joke.  They are never wrong.  Are they? Are they?  It's not even serious discussion

All predictions are wrong. Some are useful.

[jorgenswest]

10 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I do expect Keaschall to come back to earth a little as a hitter, but if he is a plus base runner and average on defense, he is a real asset at 23 years old. The Twins haven't exceeded offensive projections since 2019, so maybe this will be another year when they surprise. If two of Lee, Lewis and Wallner step up and one rookie breaks out their offense looks a lot better. Lots of "ifs" I know, but why not be optimistic until they start keeping score for real?

I look forward to seeing Keaschall with a healthy arm. He may have had some good luck with his balls in play but he also had bad luck with the injuries. His healthy arm will help in the field also.

[JD-TWINS]

Keaschall learns to bunt effectively or at least develops that skill. he could hit .280. I like his bat to ball skills and his energy…….having him play 135-145 games will be a big shot in the arm.

Ober, control in the zone is the key. His fastball doesn’t get punished that much, even at 89 MPH. His sliders up or change-ups that stay in the zone when meant to dive out of the zone, they get rocked. His stats with guys on base were really elevated - seems that throwing from the stretch changed his delivery. Maybe health related? This needs to get fixed!

PEN: Traded for Orze - Funderburk, Topa, Sands are all OK middle inning guys.

Need a couple FA signings that can bolster middle innings through 8th inning. (Coulombe & Seranthony Dominguez)

To me, Matthews gets moved to Closer. 🤞

Need 2-3 young guys to be able to supplement/support these 7 guys. Prielipp - Morris - Adams - Raya - Festa(?) - Klein.

It seems the physical capabilities will be there WITH a couple signings. I do think that LaTroy Hawkin’s experience in every PEN role will help him support guys with routines and mindset day to day through the 162 game grind. SEEMS like a pretty reasonable solution.

 

[h2oface]

On 1/5/2026 at 8:32 PM, arby58 said:

Give him a break for last year, with a hip injury. Besides, he's never thrown that hard but had good results. Lots of pitchers (see Joe Ryan for the Twins, Greg Maddox and Mark Buerhle elsewhere) do well without throwing more than 95 mph on average.

 

On 1/5/2026 at 9:30 PM, stringer bell said:

Add Jake Odorizzi and Scott Baker as former Twins without great velocity who had effective fastballs. Location and movement matter more than going from the 50th percentile to the 70th.

 

i agree. But with Ober, his track record is effectiveness craters as his velocity drops, and low 90s high 80s he gets bombed.. I personally wouldn’t be using Maddux as a comparable out of respect for Greg. Not even in the same ballpark, size or talent. 
 

I can’t help to be disappointed, Ober is huge. 

[DJL44]

The Twins defense looks pretty bad. I started looking through the Steamer predictions for good defenders.

The top free agent defender, by a large margin, is JT Realmuto with a 10.3. He's the #5 ranked defender in the entire set of projections and the #1 catcher. He would make every pitcher on the roster look better.

The next highest free agent defender is also a catcher - Reese McGuire. If the Twins signed McGuire and traded Jeffers to the Phillies it would improve their defense but not much as it hurts their offense.

Alex Bregman is the highest ranked non-catcher with a 1.8 Def ranking. Next on the list is Isaiah Kiner-Falefa with a 1.1 Def rating. Bo Bichette is next with a 1.0 Def, then Jorge Mateo with a 0.7.

Harrison Bader is the top ranked free agent outfielder by DEF with a 0.7 rating. Byron Buxton gets a -1.4 for comparison.

Josh Bell is ranked 4168 out of 4193 when you sort for defense with a -11.3 rating. DEF is a combined positional and defensive ability metric which means time at DH will hurt your rating. Nevertheless, that's terrible.

Trevor Larnach gets a -8.4 rating. Matt Wallner -7.0. Alan Roden -3.6. Kody Clemens -3.5 (good for a 1B), Miguel Andujar -3.8. Eric Wagaman -2.2 (but only 117 PA of projected playing time). Austin Martin -2.8 which is average for a LF.

 

[stringer bell]

On 1/9/2026 at 1:14 PM, DJL44 said:

The Twins defense looks pretty bad. I started looking through the Steamer predictions for good defenders.

The top free agent defender, by a large margin, is JT Realmuto with a 10.3. He's the #5 ranked defender in the entire set of projections and the #1 catcher. He would make every pitcher on the roster look better.

The next highest free agent defender is also a catcher - Reese McGuire. If the Twins signed McGuire and traded Jeffers to the Phillies it would improve their defense but not much as it hurts their offense.

Alex Bregman is the highest ranked non-catcher with a 1.8 Def ranking. Next on the list is Isaiah Kiner-Falefa with a 1.1 Def rating. Bo Bichette is next with a 1.0 Def, then Jorge Mateo with a 0.7.

Harrison Bader is the top ranked free agent outfielder by DEF with a 0.7 rating. Byron Buxton gets a -1.4 for comparison.

Josh Bell is ranked 4168 out of 4193 when you sort for defense with a -11.3 rating. DEF is a combined positional and defensive ability metric which means time at DH will hurt your rating. Nevertheless, that's terrible.

Trevor Larnach gets a -8.4 rating. Matt Wallner -7.0. Alan Roden -3.6. Kody Clemens -3.5 (good for a 1B), Miguel Andujar -3.8. Eric Wagaman -2.2 (but only 117 PA of projected playing time). Austin Martin -2.8 which is average for a LF.

 

Interesting and probably accurate. However as hard as it is to quantify defensive performance, it is that much harder to predict future performance. I think the Twins’ overall defensive performance will be determined by who gets the innings.