Arbitrary Thoughts: RHP Cole Sands

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

RHP Cole Sands
Age on Opening Day 2026: 28 years old
Service Time: Three years, 17 days

2023 Salary: $723,650
2024 Salary: $749,450
2025 Salary: $778,000
2026 MLB Trade Rumor Estimate: $1.3 million

Background: The Minnesota Twins selected Sands in the fifth round of the 2018 MLB Draft out of Florida State University, banking on his mix of polish and pitchability translating to professional success. During his time in the minors, Sands developed a reputation as a steady, mid-tier starting pitching prospect. He was never a top name, but consistently productive. His strong numbers in the low minors kept him on the organization’s radar as a potential back-end starter at the big-league level.

That projection came into focus when Sands made his MLB debut in 2022, splitting time between the rotation and bullpen. The results were uneven: a 5.87 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, and 3.8 BB/9 across his rookie campaign. While the numbers didn’t jump off the page, his stuff looked sharper in shorter bursts, prompting the Twins to transition him into a full-time relief role the following season.

The move paid off. From 2023-24, Sands emerged as one of Minnesota’s most trusted bullpen arms, compiling a 3.39 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9 with only 2.4 BB/9. He excelled at limiting hard contact and pounding the strike zone, traits that earned him a consistent spot in high-leverage situations. By the end of the 2024 season, he had accumulated 1.3 rWAR and solidified his reputation as a stabilizing force in an otherwise unpredictable relief corps. The 2025 season, however, told two very different stories.

Sands opened the season as one of the most trusted members of the Twins bullpen. As the year wore on, and especially following the team’s trade deadline selloff, he became one of the few arms manager Rocco Baldelli could reliably turn to. From August 1 through the end of the season, Sands posted a 3.25 FIP with a 28-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 26 innings.

Unfortunately, a brutal five-game stretch in September, during which he allowed ten earned runs in just 5 1/3 innings, skewed his overall numbers. By season’s end, he carried a 4.50 ERA despite peripherals that suggested he was far better than that headline figure.

Even with the inflated ERA, Sands remained an above-average strike thrower and continued to suppress hard contact. His FIP, walk rate, and WHIP all remained in line with his breakout 2023–24 seasons, hinting that his downturn was more about poor luck and small sample volatility than real regression.

2025 Stats: 69 G, 4.50 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 1.17 WHIP, 72 IP, 64 K, 21.4 K%, 19 BB, 6.4 BB%

Twins Depth at His Position (RH Relievers)
40-Man Roster: Justin Topa, Cody Laweryson, Michael Tonkin, Pierson Ohl, Thomas Hatch
Triple-A: Kyle Bischoff, Mike Paredes, Jarret Whorff, John Stankiewicz, Jaylen Nowlin
Double-A: Jacob Kisting, Paulshawn Pasqualotto, Xander Hamilton, Logan Whitaker, Matt Gabbert, Ruddy Gomez

Summary: Minnesota’s relief depth is functional but not particularly inspiring. Several arms on the 40-man roster could be designated for assignment this winter. While a few intriguing pitchers are developing in the minors, none appear ready to seize a bullpen role on Opening Day 2026. With the bullpen’s instability and lack of proven performers, the Twins can’t afford to part with one of their few dependable right-handers.

Why the Twins Should Offer Him Arbitration
Over the last two seasons, Sands has provided $18.6 million in value according to FanGraphs WAR, all while earning the league minimum. Even if his first arbitration salary lands slightly north of $1 million, he remains one of the biggest bargains on the roster relative to his production.

Sands has proven that he can handle high-leverage innings, and the Twins desperately need reliable arms to stabilize a bullpen that’s been overhauled multiple times in recent seasons. With his strike-throwing ability, late-inning experience, and affordable cost, Sands should be viewed as a potential setup man or even closer candidate for 2026. If Minnesota is serious about staying competitive, retaining Sands is a must.

Why the Twins Should Non-Tender Him
There’s only one reason to non-tender Sands: if the team knows something we don’t. Perhaps the Twins have internal concerns about his health or declining metrics that aren’t visible in surface stats. To be clear, there is no sign of this from the Twins. Otherwise, moving on from him would make little sense.

He’s young, cost-controlled, and capable of handling leverage innings, which are traits the Twins bullpen sorely lacks. Unless there’s a hidden red flag, Sands should be viewed as part of the solution, not a problem to cut loose.

Projection: This feels like one of the easiest arbitration decisions the Twins will make this offseason. Tendering Sands a contract is a no-brainer. He’s underpaid relative to his production, still improving, and represents the type of steady, affordable bullpen arm every contending team needs. With few proven right-handers behind him, Minnesota can’t afford to let one of its most dependable relievers go.

What should the Twins do with Sands? Is he an easy arbitration decision? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[ziggy]

• easy peasy, he needs to stay a Twin.
• He floundered a little after the trade deadline but who didn't after being blindsided like that?

[thelanges5]

Easy keeper!

[Dman]

Yeah I really like the stuff he has.  It was crazy some of the nasty pitches he had that went for hit's after the deadline.  Wondering if teams know what pitch he is throwing with two strikes as he really did have some tough luck.

The production for cost ratio doesn't get much better for an arm with a fair bit of experience and some good pitches. As noted with a depleted pen he is a must keep IMO.  I think he pitches to that 3.5 ERA more often than 4.5 so I'd want to keep him and look for more consistency next season.

[LA Vikes Fan]

No brainer to tender Sands a contract. He's a lock for the 2026 bullpen along with Funderburk and Topa. I think Sands will get first crack at the closer role unless we sign a former closer on a pillow deal like Williams, Maton, or Helsley.  I'd like to see them sign him on a 2 year deal and lock him in but I understand that the 2027 uncertainty may make that impossible.  

[SteveLV]

Next article will ask whether we should tender Joe Ryan or let him walk as a FA.......

[jmlease1]

Easy choice to tender. What his specific role should be in the Twins bullpen in 2026 is a little more murky, but there's no question he'll be part of it.

I feel like he could actually do well as a classic 9th inning guy, rather than maybe being a "fireman" deployed against the heart of a lineup in late & close regardless of whether it's the 7th, 8th, or 9th. But YMMV.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, SteveLV said:

Next article will ask whether we should tender Joe Ryan or let him walk as a FA.......

Then let me be the first to say I'm in favor of offering him a contract.

[DocBauer]

I saw enough from Sands in his 2022 debut...especially his breaking ball...to see a lot of promise. I was totally in favor of his pen move for 2023.

While he only threw 21.2 innings in '23, he was solid in his transition. His 2024 was downright outstanding with good K numbers, very good HITS per 9, and crazy good BB numbers.

I wish I was a bit better with Baseball Reference...and not lazy enough to not get better, LOL...to see a better breakdown of last season. What I saw was a lack of consistency the 1st half. While not bad, he just wasn't as good as in '24. But something began to click post deadline. Maybe it was just opportunity? But other than that BRUTAL stretch in September, as pointed out in the OP, he looked a lot more like his 2023 self. Was he tipping pitches? Was it bad luck? Was he feeling pressure by trying to be too perfect for a depleted pen? IDK.

I appreciate what FIP tells us about a pitchers expected results. But you still need to throw the best, and the most consistent you can, and get the job done more often than not. But the nature of a reliever is a bad stretch can ruin your ERA, even though you were better than that.

My concern is the K's went down, and the BB went up. The HITS per 9 was still solid. He's an EASY keeper, and young enough to also consider a small extension rather than go year to year. The underlying numbers, stuff, and what my eye saw throughout 2025 makes him part of the Twins pen in 2026. He smooths out his K and BB %, he's a valuable member of the backend of the pen, no question. 

I'm not quite as despondent about the 2026 pen as some...talent on hand and a couple smart signings and some conversions we're already seeing and hearing about...but Sands is a fairly big key to that pen.

[tony&rodney]

Yes, he stays.

[stringer bell]

Easy choice to offer a contract. Tougher choice for his role next year. Sands’ velo was down for a large portion of the season and as mentioned he had a rough stretch late which threw his numbers off.  2026 will be a big year for him. 

[mikelink45]

I would feel better if he were not looked at is the top leverage arm. He's a good mid level bullpen arm but he's not a closer yet if we're going to take advantage of young prospects and move up we need to add a couple of bullpen arms that are better than his. But there is no question that he should be tendered

[Sjoski]

Cole Sands fits in nicely as a supportive role, however, like his name implies. You don’t build on him… you just hope he’s still holding the drywall when the studs disappear....and those results were mixed.

[Permanent Twins Fan]

You have to keep him. He is one of the only semi-proven bullpen arms you have. Building a bullpen will be hard enough even with keeping him. Funderburk and Sands are the two main pieces right now in the bullpen.

[The Great Hambino]

He's a good example of what we're hoping can happen with some of the young starter prospects in transitioning from marginal starter to effective reliever.

He's also a good example of how that transition isn't just flipping a switch.  It took him a season or two to really settle into the new role.  Something to keep in mind for those who think they can just abracadabra an effective bullpen out of these kinds of pitchers immediately for next year

Oh yeah, the topic at hand: set him to auto-tender and move on

[S Bart]

4 hours ago, Sjoski said:

Cole Sands fits in nicely as a supportive role, however, like his name implies. You don’t build on him… you just hope he’s still holding the drywall when the studs disappear....and those results were mixed.

SUPPORT...OK....CLOSER.????...SANDMAN..........CATCHING ZZZZZ

[old nurse]

Sands is like the people i worked with who were great in chaos but dis not want to handle life and death. Set up reliever is chaos, closer is life or death. He will be fine as long as he is set up guy 

[PatPfund]

Keep him. Floor is a healthier, younger Tonkin; ceiling is a poor man's Jax.

[David Maro]

Keep him and hope the SP can log more than 4-5 innings like 25. He seemed to be wore down in September and also may have thought he had to do more. At this point this team is in flux and the FO as well as the fans don't know what ST will look like. It could be the Saints in Twins uniforms as far as anyone knows.

[Maybebaby]

He threw a few too many meatballs in his September slump but no doubt; he's a keeper after the pen was fleeced, almost no choice as I see it.🤷‍♂️

[old nurse]

Could you all get Stuart Smalley to write these? The Randball Stu wannabes seem to have lost their humor 

[Doctor Wu]

Is this even a real question? We desperately need more effective relief pitchers, and Sands is actually pretty darn good, so sure we keep him. I hope the brass aren't thinking of trading him too!

[Hubie29]

Have to keep him by process of elimination. We have nothing else. He will fit right in with the other numbers we fill the bullpen with. In other words, he is serviceable, nothing special. 

[bean5302]

Average middle reliever, he's fair to keep at $1.3MM. 1 WAR does not equal $8MM of value by any stretch of the imagination.

1 WAR for $8MM is the going rate for free agents when you divide their salary by WAR.

1 win will cost $1.4MM in MLB salary ($3.5B / 81 wins / 30 teams)
AAA replacement cost is $760k and will provide 0 wins.
1 WAR = 700k by that thought process.

Cole Sands is not a free agent.

[BrokenCompass]

When Cole Sands is an arm you're desperate to hold on to, you've got problems.