David Festa's Fork in the Road: Rotation Depth or Twins Next Closer?

[Greggory Masterson]

Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

David Festa is one of a handful of Twins’ pitching draft success stories. Although fans may disagree regarding how effective or promising Festa is, taking a player in the 13th round and turning him into an MLB pitcher at all is a success.

Festa rose quickly through the Twins system, racing through both levels of Class A in 2022, then Double-A and Triple-A in 2023 after being an unheralded 2021 draft pick. At the time of his call-up to the majors in 2024, he was a top five organizational prospect and was appearing on global Top 100 lists. There was a lot of hope that he could help restock the rotation after the departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda.

And there still are Festa fanatics today. It’s not like he’s been a disappointment. It’s been rocky for the greenhorn, with a 5.12 ERA (83 ERA+) for the Twins across 117 2/3 innings in 2024 and 2025, but he’s shown flashes that can excite. He has three usable pitches—a plus four seamer that can reach the high-90s but sits 95, a plus slider, and a serviceable changeup. He has also attempted to add a sinker to diversify his pitch mix, though it’s more of a show-me offering that’s gotten hit hard and doesn’t grade well.

There is legitimate reason to remain excited, or at least hopeful for Festa as a starter. As noted, he’s not been a disaster and he has less than a full season of MLB starting under his belt in sporadic action, as he’s yo-yoed several times between the Twins and St. Paul over the past two years.

However, he has some factors working against his long-term outlook as a starter, including a couple of red flags that threaten THIS GUY IS A RELIEVER stamp.

First, Festa has struggled to pitch deep into games with any regularity. Now, this isn’t some anomaly. Pitchers getting their first taste of the majors aren’t given free rein to rack up innings. They’re generally guided along, only biting off a bit of the game at a time. Festa himself is only averaging about four and two-thirds innings per start, completing a full five innings in thirteen of his twenty-five big league starts. Again, that’s not some travesty for a guy with 25 big league starts, but there’s more.

Part of the reason is that Festa only makes it through five innings in about half of his starts. He struggles seeing offenses more than once. The first time through the order, Festa is excellent, holding hitters to a .498 OPS. The second time, though? A .909 OPS.

Some of this can be attributed to youth and inexperience navigating an MLB lineup, but some can be chalked up to a limited pitch mix. It’s hard to fool hitters twice or three times when you have three (and a half) options to get them out. Whatever the case, though, it’s been an issue, and it’s easy for any armchair stat line scout to point at that and say, “What if he didn’t have to face hitters a second time? It's worked for Griffin Jax.”

The second factor is his arm health. Festa has thrown just 82 innings this season, having lost about two months to shoulder inflammation and arm fatigue. It’s not some death sentence on his starter outlook, but having two arm injuries in a year isn’t encouraging, especially injuries that seem to be from normal use (obviously, most injuries are from normal use, but you know what I mean).

When pitchers become relievers, it’s typically because they can’t rack up innings, either because of effectiveness or health, and Festa seems to be going down that path. Neither of these factors are damning at this point, but there are also a couple external factors that might expedite the process of the Twins altering course on Festa—and they’re related.

First, the team needs relievers. After trading away six of the projected top seven relief arms during the season (I didn’t forget you, Jorge Alcala), there are nothing but holes in the bullpen. Seemingly only Cole Sands and Justin Topa have a better than 50% chance of being in the 2026 pen. Pitchers who might otherwise have been on a starter trajectory might be heading out to the bullpen out of necessity.

That’s not necessarily a good thing. Starters are more valuable than relievers (see the Griffin Jax-Taj Bradley trade). Teams don’t want to give up on their starters. But hey, if it’s between that and spending $25 million on veteran free agent relievers, it’s hard not to at least consider it.

Second, the rotation is crowded right now. Trade can disrupt that, but right now Pablo López, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober are written into the rotation, Zebby Matthews seems an almost-lock, and the fifth spot will be between Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson, and newcomers Mick Abel and Bradley. Even after a trade, Festa may be on the outside looking in.

Granted, the Twins like to stockpile MLB-ready pitching depth at Triple-A, and Festa has been one of the first men up in both 2024 and 2025. But with all those names, plus a handful of other Triple-A names who could also step in if needed, Festa moving to the pen (and even one of the other names, too) would release a lot of pressure in the crowded room. Put another way, the Twins are in a position to sacrifice some depth if it helps their dilapidated pen.

And how would Festa be? Well, it’s hard to say. But he has some traits prevent the title of this article from being too hyperbolic. Obviously, as already mentioned, he’s been terrific the first time through the order. That alone is enough to start the wheel in your head. Why not see if that early-game success can translate into late-game success?

His three-pitch mix plays much better out of the pen, especially if he can hump it up for 20 pitches at a time. It’s not unreasonable to believe that his mid-90s fastball could transform into an offering that sits in the high 90s, and it would enable him to lean more into his wipeout slider and rely less on his average changeup and weak sinker.

There are always his control problems, but this is one of those cookie-cutter cases that baseball has seen time and time again. Next year will be his age-26 season, so it’s about time for the Twins to pick a lane with him, and it’s not unreasonable to expect that Festa might spend it pitching the late innings for your hometown nine.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

I love this idea. Great article 

[Glorybound]

He still needs more time in the rotation. The way pitchers are developed these days it takes more starts to determine what you have. Just being around Lopez and Ryan will help him grow and mature. 

[rv78]

Lopez and Ryan won't be here in 2026. The trade deadline showed us the true intent for the Pohlads was to dump salary. Lopez and Ryan are/will be too expensive to keep. Ober might be gone too however I don't think he'll bring enough back for the Twins to trade him. All of that, means Festa will be given all of 2026 to prove he belongs in the rotation. Expect to see Ober, SWR, Matthews, Festa, Bradley, Ohl, Abel, and Rojas be the options used. I can also see them resigning Hatch and a couple of other cheap veteran type arms that other teams DFA. 

[thelanges5]

Are we going to see Festa again in 2025? I’ve read he’s starting to throw? 

[TL]

This is the way. Festa, Preillip, Bradley, Ohl (and maybe Raya) is a good start on rebuilding the bullpen. And you still go 8 deep with MLB ready starters. Just don’t trade Ryan or Lopez!

[Jack207]

Festa will become a shut down closer then traded next July.

[Jeff K]

I'm mostly concerned about Festa's arm problems which seemingly point towards a relief and possible closer role.  I think this makes sense and I hope like heck the Twins don't trade Ryan or Lopez.  But if one must be traded, then my preference is that it is Lopez.  

[PatG]

Besides Festa, I would start thinking about moving Zebby Mat to the bullpen.  I think he'd be a better "Varland" very quickly.  1-2 closers Festa and Mathews.

Mathews might tick up a couple mph with move.....

[TopGunn#22]

I could see either scenario playing out.  I remember how badly Frank Viola struggled as a SP early in his Twins career.  And then, seemingly in the blink of an eye...he figured it out.  Probably because he finally was able to command his change-up.  Festa needs to keep working on his change-up to make it a pitch he's consistently "GOOD" with.  

However, even if we trade one or even two of Ryan, Lopez or Ober, there are still LOTS of arms to consider for the rotation.  The young pitchers I have my eye on for the Twins are Matthews, Festa, Abel and Bradley.  That's 4 guys.  Each of them has flashed excellent strikeout potential and each of them has shown an inability to pitch with command and control, leading to giving up crooked numbers in an inning consistently.  It's frustrating to see Matthews and now Abel literally get shelled.

It's too early by conventional baseball thinking to give up on any of the 4 guys I listed as SP.  Yet, circumstance is probably going to require it.  The Twins can't use ALL of these guys in the rotation but they shouldn't be wasting bullets in the minors either.  And guys like Prielipp and Raya are also prime candidates for bullpen roles who could still "graduate" to a rotation spot.

Festa could indeed be a good closer.  He's got a Joe Nathan like pitch mix.  But if I'm in the Twins FO and I want to build a team capable of contending in the shaky A.L. Central, I'm not putting someone like Festa, Bradley, Abel or Matthews as my closer.  The Twins elected to gut their BP.  They could have kept Varland as the closer in waiting.  They chose not to.

The Twins need to either sign or trade for a veteran closer to anchor a BP that would have potential but also some growing pains.  Sign Helsley or Yates.  Trade for Camilo Doval or Ryan Walker.  Walker was sensational in 2024 and has been so/so in 2025.  Doval lost his closer job to Walker, then regained it before being traded to the Yankees.  Yates was second only to Clase in 2024.  The Dodgers signed him to a $12 million dollar contract, only to shove him into a setup role.  He's been so/so this season.  Helsley is a GREAT closer.  He's been mediocre as a set up man for the Mets.  Each of these guys aren't going to command half of the $12-million Kirby Yates is making this year for the Dodgers as a set up man in 2026.

Closers can be great, have an off year, and then bounce back with a sensational year.  If the Twins choose the right veteran to anchor their BP they could then handle Festa, Bradley or whoever with a little more flexibility.  They have about $25 million to play with this winter.  They should certainly be able to use $5-$6 million of that to secure a solid veteran option to close games. 

It's ironic, the Twins could have used that $5-$6 million to sign Duran or Jax but chose to go a different direction.  They could still build a decent BP with some of the young arms in their system who are struggling to become solid SP due to lack of consistent control or a pitch mix found lacking. 

But to do the young pitchers justice as well as the TEAM, a veteran closer should be pursued with urgency this winter.  Even if it's just a one-year "prove you've got the goods again" deal.   If the Twins actually contend next year and someone like Helsley or Yates is shining as our closer the Twins can consider an extension.  If we're not contending, but said veteran closer is pitching well, you can always deal him at the deadline if an extension seems unlikely.

Either way, you build in a season that acts as a cushion.  You give Festa, Matthews, Bradley and Abel one more season to clarify what they've got to offer.  Then the Twins can approach 2027 (provided we don't have a strike) with a better idea what their plan should be for that season and going forward.   

[LA Vikes Fan]

I really like the idea of moving one of the young starters into a short relief/closer bullpen role and I think Festa is the best choice. I honestly don’t think the plan is to trade Ryan or Lopez this off-season. The Twins will have at least 12 and as many as 15 minimum salary guys next year on the team. You can run a $100 million payroll easily without trading either of those two guys and have $10-$15 million left over for a free agent or two. More if you move Larnach..

Festa makes perfect sense as a closer if he can handle the role mentally. He’s got the high octane fast ball and a good secondary pitch, but it doesn’t have a deep arsenal. He’s also had shoulder issues. I think he could thrive as the closer and I hope the team takes some opportunities in September to try him in that role. I think the current plans for the rotation next year is López, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, with a competition for that fifth spot between Bradley, SWR, and Abel. The two who don’t make it then go to AAA with Rojas and Prielipp and you have a pretty strong AAA rotation to pick from when inevitable injuries hit. You then have Topa, Sands, Festa, and Funderburk in the bullpen. Hatch has really shown well and can also serve as your sixth starter/piggyback for SWR guy. I agree with top gun that you then spend five or $6 million on a decent reliever and the bullpen starts to look somewhat competitive.

 

[Glorybound]

17 minutes ago, PatG said:

Besides Festa, I would start thinking about moving Zebby Mat to the bullpen.  I think he'd be a better "Varland" very quickly.  1-2 closers Festa and Mathews.

Mathews might tick up a couple mph with move.....

A little premature to do that I believe. Young pitchers need innings to harness their control. Taller longer limbed guys take time to grow into their bodies. A starter with poor control is not going to be able to get enough innings pitching out of the pen. Mathews has potential to be a no 1 starter someday. Rushing him last season might have delayed his development a bit. It looks to me like he trying to too much at once and consequently is not doing what he once was good at and that is fastball control.

[LambchoP]

With Lopez and probably Ryan likely being traded, all our young arms will get opportunity to prove they can stick in the rotation. I expect a lot of piggyback starts while they try to find out who can go deep enough into games and who gets sent to the pen. 

[Chembry]

1 hour ago, rv78 said:

Lopez and Ryan won't be here in 2026. The trade deadline showed us the true intent for the Pohlads was to dump salary. Lopez and Ryan are/will be too expensive to keep. Ober might be gone too however I don't think he'll bring enough back for the Twins to trade him. All of that, means Festa will be given all of 2026 to prove he belongs in the rotation. Expect to see Ober, SWR, Matthews, Festa, Bradley, Ohl, Abel, and Rojas be the options used. I can also see them resigning Hatch and a couple of other cheap veteran type arms that other teams DFA. 

You are making assumptions…both López and Ryan are on team friendly contracts.  Even keeping both of them, the Twins may face a grievance from MLBPA .  The current CBA requires teams to spend 150% of revenue sharing on MLB payroll.  With that being said, nobody knows what that true figure is, but suffice to say even the Pohlads can only cut payroll to a certain extent.

I would also argue keeping López is worth far more than his salary anyway.  He attends other pitchers bullpen sessions for support and mentorship.  He acts as a secondary pitching coach.  A veteran presence like that in the clubhouse, is invaluable.  We do have enough pitching depth, on paper, to trade 1-2 starters, but the Twins have shown this year why you need 8-9 MLB ready starters.  If we do trade one, Ryan makes the most sense as he gives you the best return. 

Personally, I think it’s a wonderful idea to move a starter into a closer role.  I have floated the idea of moving Zebby there, but I think he could be a very good starter.  Festa would also be very good in that role.  His fastball would probably sit in the upper 90’s, touching 100.  Couple that with his secondary pitches, it would be extremely valuable as a closer.

There a a few AAA guys that could also step up into a high leverage bullpen role, depending on how the Twins view their future based on their injury history and track record in Raya, Prelipp, and Morris.  I think Rojas will stay a starter for now.

Let’s assume Festa is moved to the closer role, if we don’t move Lopez/Ryan, the rotation sits at: lopez, Ryan, Ober, Zebby…the has Abel, Bradley, SWR, Raya, and Morris all fighting for the #5 spot.

If we move Lopez or Ryan, then we have: Lopez/Ryan (#1), Ober, Zebby…then Abel, Bradley, SWR, Raya, and Morris all fighting for the #4 and #5 spot.  
 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Between now and ST there has to be some trades coming and a starter or two being moved into relief. We have right now, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Richardson, Matthews, Festa, Abel, Bradley, Raya, Morris, Rojas, Prielipp, and Cullpepper on the verge. Yes you have injuries. But you can't keep them all. Doing so is malpractice. The acquisitions of Abel, Bradley and Rojas was a clear signal to me that multiple moves will be happening soon. They will have to sell off some assets. As for reaching a certain payroll to appease an agreement without suffering a grievance that is easily taken care of. You can move Lopez and his salary and overpay on a vet or two and the players association is happy. We have Falvey who is very good at overpaying for veterans already.

[yeahyabetcha]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Between now and ST there has to be some trades coming and a starter or two being moved into relief. We have right now, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Richardson, Matthews, Festa, Abel, Bradley, Raya, Morris, Rojas, Prielipp, and Cullpepper on the verge. Yes you have injuries. But you can't keep them all. Doing so is malpractice. The acquisitions of Abel, Bradley and Rojas was a clear signal to me that multiple moves will be happening soon. They will have to sell off some assets. As for reaching a certain payroll to appease an agreement without suffering a grievance that is easily taken care of. You can move Lopez and his salary and overpay on a vet or two and the players association is happy. We have Falvey who is very good at overpaying for veterans already.

I would not trade any of them.  I think 3 of the ones you listed are on the IR now.  Another 2-3 should be moved to the bullpen.  And several others would not be hurt by starting the season in the minors.

[gman]

I don't think the Twins have to trade any more pitchers this coming off season. They had to promise the minority investors something to get some money out of them. Could they trade Ryan or Lopez for a terrific package, sure why not? But it should not be just for money anymore.

I think if you add Raya, Festa, MacLeod, Lewis, and maybe Morris, you could get be a good start on a bullpen. Keep Sands, Topa, Adams, Hatch and probably Ohl, could get you a good start on a bullpen and leave plenty for the starting rotation. Who knows maybe Canterino will show up healthy.

[saviking]

Festa

Prielipp

Raya

Culpepper 

They all could end up in the pen. 

[Chembry]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Between now and ST there has to be some trades coming and a starter or two being moved into relief. We have right now, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Richardson, Matthews, Festa, Abel, Bradley, Raya, Morris, Rojas, Prielipp, and Cullpepper on the verge. Yes you have injuries. But you can't keep them all. Doing so is malpractice. The acquisitions of Abel, Bradley and Rojas was a clear signal to me that multiple moves will be happening soon. They will have to sell off some assets. As for reaching a certain payroll to appease an agreement without suffering a grievance that is easily taken care of. You can move Lopez and his salary and overpay on a vet or two and the players association is happy. We have Falvey who is very good at overpaying for veterans already.

I think most are in agreement that at least one of the current 3 (López/Ryan/Ober) will be traded.  Quite frankly, I think Ryan has the best odds there…will bring back a very high return.  I would argue against trading Pablo for the reasons I already stated.

[Nshore]

It's pretty hard to think of the Twins and "rotation depth".  They're struggling to fill out a 5 man rotation with pitchers who can be counted on to maybe get to the 5th inning, and keep their ERA's under 6.00. 

Festa is another guy probably not strong enough to be a starter, considering the stuff and the velocity pitchers are expected to have today.

[tony&rodney]

Festa does need to harness the edges of the zone and master a changeup. I'm thinking he is in the mix for a rotation spot next year along with Woods Richardson, Matthews, Morris, Abel, and Bradley. Impossible for me to know how the Twins view these pitchers. Prielipp and Raya could be solid additions to the bullpen.

Will the Twins trade any or all of Ryan, Lopez, and Ober?

A few people have mentioned the CBA and payrolls. I believe this only applies if a team is below a percentage in multiple years. It won't be a surprise (to me) if the Twins were well below the $100M mark in the next 2 years.

[PatG]

23 hours ago, Glorybound said:

A little premature to do that I believe. Young pitchers need innings to harness their control. Taller longer limbed guys take time to grow into their bodies. A starter with poor control is not going to be able to get enough innings pitching out of the pen. Mathews has potential to be a no 1 starter someday. Rushing him last season might have delayed his development a bit. It looks to me like he trying to too much at once and consequently is not doing what he once was good at and that is fastball control.

Most excellent answer and very accurate; except if the Twins want to actually compete next year, yes in 2026....

Bout Mathews, I think he should be moved to pen to concentrate more on each pitch.  To me, it seems like he isn't "ultra-zoned" in on (committed?) to each pitch.  Here we go: I believe by moving him to the pen to pitch every other day (without fail), he would mature quicker and home in on every pitch of his most excellent pitching arsenal.

Then, begin the process of stretching him out to 2-3 innings (30-50 pitches) per outing and voila, you have an excellent 5-inning pitcher (Twins starter).  This process would necessarily take about 4 weeks....

This process could be repeated with the pitchers with stuff (eg Abel, Bradley)

 

[PuckettProtector]

I think Matthews should be our new closer. 

[DocBauer]

On 8/24/2025 at 9:23 AM, LA VIkes Fan said:

I really like the idea of moving one of the young starters into a short relief/closer bullpen role and I think Festa is the best choice. I honestly don’t think the plan is to trade Ryan or Lopez this off-season. The Twins will have at least 12 and as many as 15 minimum salary guys next year on the team. You can run a $100 million payroll easily without trading either of those two guys and have $10-$15 million left over for a free agent or two. More if you move Larnach.

 

I don't want to hijack the thread, but is Larnaxh is moved...in whatever kind of deal...and I believe he will be...the payroll should be about $90M WITH Lopez and Ryan still on board and with projected arbitration numbers factored in. 

With $400 and possibly $500M coming in via the new minority owners, the $400+M debt is gone, or paid down significantly. (Maybe they keep a little debt on the books for tax purposes???). They have the ability to add a couple inexpensive arms to the pen for depth. Maybe guys on 1yr deals looking for rebound season? And you're still under $100M.

No clue if the debt elimination and some non-Pohlads now involved will push the payroll back up to a still very manageable $130 repeat of 2025, but if it happens, suddenly you have room to add a 1B or DH for the lineup...maybe BOTH...and you can still be at this season's payroll, or less.

I think you're on the right path. Just wanted to add a little.

[DocBauer]

As I stated in a Forums article recently, I so very, very much want Festa to be a quality SP for the Twins. Not only is it a great story/accomplishment to find a late round arm and turn them in to something good...such as Ober and Varland...but the good velocity and solid stuff coming from all those lone arms and legs is just fun to watch.

But as we saw with Duran, some arms/bodies just aren't built for 80+ pitches every 5 days. I agree with you, Greg, that Festa is still young and still developing. His struggles the 2nd time through and lineup currently, and his dual shoulder issues this season don't dismiss him as a rotation candidate. BUT, like Duran, maybe he's just built to throw 15-20 pitches 3 times a week in 1 IP situations. That just might be his future.

I would offer some pushback on Festa's change as I think it is really good, but lacks consistency. His 2 seamer was added to make him more effective against RH bats. I think it stays, or they replace it with something else, but I think he might need a 4th pitch to achieve greater success, even in the pen.

But the Twins need to look at more than a few arms and decide where they fit best

"Hey kid, we're not sure you're cut out to be a ML SP. And instead of being 8th or 9th in line for a promotion, why not ascend more rapidly to MLB as a reliever for more $ and all the other benefits and future $ you could earn?"

A quick addition if I might? I've been wondering about the pen and all the arms ready, or close to being ready at great length in my head.

I still like the idea of Prielipp being groomed as a SP. I'd still like a 4th pitch to offset his good stuff. But considering he's still learning how to "pitch", and the recent additions of some other promising LH arms over the past 2 seasons, I can see a path for Prielipp to move to the pen.

I also believe CJ Culpepper might be a very good RP with his large arsenal of pitches, but also a couple injuries, and reports his velocity doesn't always maintain. 

I've also wondered about Lewis making the transition. IIRC he was the MILB pitcher of the year a couple seasons ago. Then his 2024 was limited due to injury setback. His current 2025 has been a bit of a nightmare filled with horrible appearances mixed in with some solid ones. Not only has he been adjusting to AAA, but his pitch mix has been tinkered with greatly. So overall results might not really matter. But if he could go max velocity for an inning...or two...and toss in that CRAZY knuckleball, he might find real success as a pen option.

Just me thinking a little beyond Festa alone.