A Twins Fan’s Tanking Guide for the Rest of 2025

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of © Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins officially waved the white flag at this year’s trade deadline. After one of the most dramatic deadline sell-offs in team history, any faint hope of a playoff push evaporated. Now, the remainder of the 2025 season isn’t about chasing October; it’s about sorting out the future.

The front office and coaching staff will spend the next two months evaluating the young core. Who’s ready to stake a claim to a 2026 roster spot? Who’s still a year away? And who, bluntly, might not be part of the picture at all? Those questions will define the on-field product.

But for fans, there’s a different race worth watching: the race to the bottom of the standings.

One of the only silver linings to being among the worst teams in baseball is the chance to secure a premium draft pick. Thanks to MLB’s new lottery system, finishing with one of the league’s worst records doesn’t guarantee the No. 1 pick, but it dramatically improves your odds of adding a franchise-altering prospect to the farm system.

As of Monday, the Twins sit at 58–66, which puts them at the eighth-worst record in baseball. On the surface, that doesn’t sound particularly “tank-worthy,” but MLB’s lottery rules give them a better shot than it seems. Because of new measures designed to discourage blatant tanking, MLB has installed restrictions on repeat appearances in the lottery. Large-market teams, those not receiving revenue sharing, are barred from lottery selections in back-to-back years. Small-market teams (revenue-sharing recipients) are barred from appearing in the lottery for three consecutive years.

This wrinkle works in the Twins’ favor. Both the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals, teams with worse records than Minnesota, are ineligible for the 2026 lottery. That bumps the Twins up to sixth place in the current lottery standings, with 7.5% odds of landing the No. 1 overall pick and a 90% chance of picking eighth or better.

Right now, the “leaders” in the tanking sweepstakes are the Chicago White Sox and Pittsburgh Pirates, who are sitting well ahead (or behind, depending on how you frame it) with a 14-game and 6.5-game cushion over the Twins, respectively. But after those two, things get interesting. The Athletics, Braves, and Orioles are all within three games of Minnesota. A particularly bad (or good, depending on your perspective) stretch could vault the Twins up to third place in the lottery odds. That would give them a 16.5% shot at the No. 1 overall pick (equal to the top two slots) and an 80% chance of selecting in the top six. It’s unlikely the Twins will “catch” the White Sox or Pirates in the tanking standings, but climbing into the top three is very much in play over the final six weeks.

(Draft Lottery odds courtesy of Tankathon)

The 2026 MLB Draft is already shaping up as a strong class. Early names to watch include UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron, and high school left-hander Gio Rojas. Adding a talent of that caliber could accelerate Minnesota’s next competitive ramp-up. That said, it’s worth remembering that the MLB Draft isn’t like the NFL or NBA drafts. Even the “can’t-miss” players often take three to four years to debut, and many never pan out at all. But data shows that the earlier you pick, the higher the odds that your prospect develops into a big leaguer. So while fans shouldn’t pin their hopes entirely on the draft, it’s not something to ignore either.

The Twins aren’t playing for October anymore. They’re playing for 2026 and beyond. For the front office, that means evaluating the roster. For fans, it means keeping one eye on the standings—not for a Wild Card spot, but for draft lottery positioning. With the right mix of (bad) luck and standings movement, the Twins could walk away from 2025 not just with a new core of young players tested at the big-league level, but also with a golden ticket at the top of next year’s draft.

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Are you invested in the “Great Tank Race of 2025”? Do you think the Twins will finish closer to the No. 3 lottery slot or slip back toward the bottom half of the top 10? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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[Brett]

Honestly, the way this year has gone, I see them winning too many games and sliding back to 10th worst.

in unrelated news, the Pohlads will announce the hiring of the esteemed PR firm Dewey, Cheatham, and Howe to help them better relate to their fan base.

[NYCTK]

Let's Go (whoever is playing the) Twins! 

[FlyingFinn]

I forgot that the Rockies and Nationals can't be in the lottery. The Braves and Orioles are playing well right now. I'm thinking we will end up at 3 or 4 and this series with the A's could determine that.

[thelanges5]

Sad but true. 

[Nshore]

Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea, with Rocco Baldelli as Richard Baseballhart.  Explains the presence of the players who can drive this baby to the bottom.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Brett said:

Honestly, the way this year has gone, I see them winning too many games and sliding back to 10th worst.

in unrelated news, the Pohlads will announce the hiring of the esteemed PR firm Dewey, Cheatham, and Howe to help them better relate to their fan base.

Always love a dewey, cheatem and howe reference :)

[TopGunn#22]

The Twins are very well stocked with SS in the system right now, but with the ability of the best athlete on the field (the SS) to move to other positions cannot be discounted.  Culpepper may be on the fast track to the Twins roster and Marek Houston is just an outstanding glove with an ability to make consistent solid contact at the plate (at least so far).

Other players, especially in the college ranks will emerge before the draft next season.  The Twins usually take position players with their first pick.  Let's say they pick 3rd or 4th.  Might there be a College or High School pitcher they can't resist?

It will be interesting to see where they land and then read about the top 5 players throughout the College and High School/Legion/Elite Traveling seasons to get an idea of who they might pick.

Might there be a high profile Catcher, in the Joe Mauer mold that could be available?  

[nicksaviking]

The Pohlad's had no reason to cut the purse strings and the Twins had no reason to be in the position they are currently in; I'm thinking the lottery gods are not going to reward this organization after how willfully devious they have behaved.

[bunsen82]

If the Twins get hot they could fall all the way to the 12th pick or later,  or could end up with the 3rd best odds.  You have 11 teams lumped in a 5 win spread so there can be quite a bit of movement the remainder of the season.  The 7 games against the White Sox will be likely the most impactful as on the surface they are the most winnable games.  Do the Twins win a majority of the games against the White Sox?  

[Dman]

I don't think the Twins chances of tanking worse than other teams is that great.  When Pablo comes back they are going to have good starting pitching and the Twins schedule isn't as hard as some of the teams they are currently ahead of in the reverse standings.  Even with those two teams out it might be hard to stay at number 8 IMO.

Maybe if the pen continues to stay really bad and the bats don't do much they could do worse, but as things stand they look like the least likely of the ten bottom teams to be able to tank effectively enough to get to a top 5 pick.  

We'll see what happens, but getting to a top 5 pick slot a lot would have to go right\wrong IMO as they just seem to be setup better to win more games.

[Seth Stohs]

I used to be such a fan of the tanking philosophy, and I do subscribe to the thought that, if you aren't going to make the playoffs, it doesn't matter if you finish in 3rd or 5th in the division. 

But I've watched enough bad baseball in my lifetime that at point, I'd much rather watch competitive baseball than worry about draft positioning (especially since the change to the lottery system). This team is going to struggle to win 40% of their remaining games just because they lost a lot. I don't want to see them do things or make decisions that'll make that even lower. And I really don't so much care about the wins vs the losses at this point. I just want to watch decent baseball with great effort by guys trying to make their case for (a roster spot next season, staying on the 40-man this offseason, showing another team that they can be productive). 

The other side of it is that there are no guarantees in the draft, even in the top 5 or top 10 picks. The Twins give us enough examples of that (Gordon, Stewart, Jay, Johnson, etc.), and there isn't an organization that doesn't have their own examples. 

So I say that they keep playing hard, putting out lineups that are strategic for that game, give young guys opportunities for growth and see what happens. 

[bunsen82]

24 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The Twins are very well stocked with SS in the system right now, but with the ability of the best athlete on the field (the SS) to move to other positions cannot be discounted.  Culpepper may be on the fast track to the Twins roster and Marek Houston is just an outstanding glove with an ability to make consistent solid contact at the plate (at least so far).

Other players, especially in the college ranks will emerge before the draft next season.  The Twins usually take position players with their first pick.  Let's say they pick 3rd or 4th.  Might there be a College or High School pitcher they can't resist?

It will be interesting to see where they land and then read about the top 5 players throughout the College and High School/Legion/Elite Traveling seasons to get an idea of who they might pick.

Might there be a high profile Catcher, in the Joe Mauer mold that could be available?  

We are also starting to get to the point where we might start trading the SS prospects for other needs on the team.  The High School prospects will solidify a bit more.   

The other aspect is as much as the 2026 draft has some high end talent,  the depth also is supposed to be very good.  If the Twins feel stacked at SS with elite prospects then an underslot pick may be a good option and they can get a different possition and then get higher ranked players in the 2nd, supplement, 3rd and 4th rounds.   In general I prefer to go with the best prospect.  

[jorgenswest]

The Twins are also playing for today. Today matters.

The Twins should be playing for 2026. 2026 matters.

Call up Mick Abel. Get the three injured starters back on the mound. Some will get a look in the pen. Look at Taj Bradley in the bullpen.

Fight to win each game. That fight now will matter next year. 

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

I forgot that the Rockies and Nationals can't be in the lottery. The Braves and Orioles are playing well right now. I'm thinking we will end up at 3 or 4 and this series with the A's could determine that.

Without a consensus no. 1 pick, anything top five would be just fine.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

13 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Without a consensus no. 1 pick, anything top five would be just fine.  

This draft does have a consensus #1 upcoming though, at least as far as I can tell. SS Roch Chowlowsky from UCLA. 

[bunsen82]

23 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

 

The other side of it is that there are no guarantees in the draft, even in the top 5 or top 10 picks. The Twins give us enough examples of that (Gordon, Stewart, Jay, Johnson, etc.), and there isn't an organization that doesn't have their own examples. 

 

Look at Houston back in the 2010's 

11 - George Springer (40 War at age 35)   

1 - Carlos Correa  (45 War at age 30)

1 -  Mark Appel  (bust)

1 - Brady Aiken  (bust)

2 - Alex Bregman  (43 WAR at age 31)  

5 - Kyle Tucker  (27 War at age 28)  

Yes Baseball is a crapshoot.  But what Houston did in the 2000's and what Baltimore did and is trying to do is trying to game the system and increase the odds of hitting on a great pick. Either picking multiple times early - or trying to acquire as many 1st round picks as they can.   Baltimore got the 30 and 31 picks for losing Burnes and Santander and acquired pick 37 with the Rays.  This year the had 4 picks between 19 and 37.    Yes the odds aren't  great, but you drastically increase your odds when you are picking 4 top 30 players.  I think you could see more trades of the competitive balance picks in the future.   When there is a draft that is expected to be very good,  increasing your odds is a good strategy.  Just look at the 2023 draft as of now all top 6 picks are either high prospects rankings or doing very well in MLB.  Wyatt Langford (7 War), Paul Skenes 12 WAR,  Jacob Wilson 2 WAR this year.  Pick 7 was Lowder (63 best prospect).  That is 7 picks that look like high MLB caliber players.   This upcoming draft is being compared to that 2023 draft.   I do think it will lack on the high end talent.   

I do agree with you,  I don't want to see the team trying to lose,  so far they are playing competitive baseball.  As the teams is constructed I don't expect better than .500 ball,  but the hitters have shown they can be competitive and the bullpen has held up much better than anticipated.  

[TopGunn#22]

Chowlowsky is certainly the early favorite Cory, but every year there are a handful of guys either in College or High School who seem to just put it together.  Their power emerges.  Their fastball adds 5mph, their slider/sweeper adds more spin.  

The article listed 2 College SS and a High school Pitcher (I think...).  There will be other names added to the list and then dropped and then a couple more added and dropped before the draft actually takes place.  At this point, it doesn't appear we desperately need:  SS.  C.  Corner OF.  SP.  But if that's where the best player is when the Twins are on the clock they could still pick one.  Let's say a College Corner OF bat emerges and the bat could be big league ready SOON.  It will be interesting to see what the FO and scouting department decide.

bunsen82 also made a great point about signing somebody under slot to use money for someone special later in the draft.

jorgenswest makes a good point about the need to get Mick Abel up and in the rotation as well as Taj Bradley in the BP.  I'd love to see Bradley get an opportunity to close some games out. I wouldn't be willing to just flush Bradley as a SP just yet.  But I'd love to see him get a mini audition as a closer to see how he performs.  Adding Pablo Lopez back into the rotation for the remainder of the season will also better our chances of winning a few more games, as will continued improvement from Bailey Ober.

Maybe top 8 (rather than top 3 or 4) is more realistic to hope for.  

[terrydactyls]

IMHO Cholowski sounds like a name that should on the back of a jersey in either Chicago, Milwaukee, or Pittsburgh. 

[Patzky]

51 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

This draft does have a consensus #1 upcoming though, at least as far as I can tell. SS Roch Chowlowsky from UCLA. 

👍

[saviking]

If they select a high school pitcher it isn't going to speed up anything 

[Doctor Gast]

Yeah, let's go for it! In '26, it'll be even worse, which further improve our chances. Falvey will take credit for it & will shoot for the worst record in '27. How diabolical! There should be a rule against that! Oops! There is! That'll shoot '27 down, sorry Falvey. You've always had trouble planning ahead.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The Twins are very well stocked with SS in the system right now, but with the ability of the best athlete on the field (the SS) to move to other positions cannot be discounted.  Culpepper may be on the fast track to the Twins roster and Marek Houston is just an outstanding glove with an ability to make consistent solid contact at the plate (at least so far).

Other players, especially in the college ranks will emerge before the draft next season.  The Twins usually take position players with their first pick.  Let's say they pick 3rd or 4th.  Might there be a College or High School pitcher they can't resist?

It will be interesting to see where they land and then read about the top 5 players throughout the College and High School/Legion/Elite Traveling seasons to get an idea of who they might pick.

Might there be a high profile Catcher, in the Joe Mauer mold that could be available?  

I agree with you.  If the Twins are top 5 I think they will go with a position player.  Depending on what they do in the offseason I also think they might target HS players with their first three picks. My reasoning is that currently the farm is pretty stacked at the upper levels. Then if they get rid off one, two or all three of Pablo, Ryan and Ober the farm and the MLB team will be stacked with lot's of young talent.  So I think they will want or have the luxury of taking risks on high upside high school players to help with the next wave of talent.  I think they'll go more future based early and then do their college arms, bats etc. later on in the draft.

If they don't sell in the offseason then likely a different strategy for next years draft.  It is going to be an interesting year next year regardless.

 

[AKTwinsFan]

The amount of cap space dictated this past draft since the Mariners had a better record than we did and they won the lottery with the 3rd overall pick. Its kind of a sham though since they were the biggest buyers at the deadline. Picking up the 2 biggest bats. So with all the cap space we should have cleared up we should have greater odds at landing a top 3 pick.

[USAFChief]

What a world we live in, where some people rejoice in tanking.

Awful.

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

5 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

We are also starting to get to the point where we might start trading the SS prospects for other needs on the team.  The High School prospects will solidify a bit more.   

The other aspect is as much as the 2026 draft has some high end talent,  the depth also is supposed to be very good.  If the Twins feel stacked at SS with elite prospects then an underslot pick may be a good option and they can get a different possition and then get higher ranked players in the 2nd, supplement, 3rd and 4th rounds.   In general I prefer to go with the best prospect.  

The top of the draft pretty much always has lots of SS's -- it's the position that the best player plays on most teams, so that means the best players are often SS's.  When they move to professional ball, the ones that are excellent shortstops continue playing there.  Others get moved off to other defensive positions either because their skills are no longer elite for the level or because their bodies change so they are no longer shortstops.  Remember, Miguel Sano was originally a "shortstop".  

[TheLeviathan]

It's not the reality we all want, but it's the reality we have:  If we're going to be bad, having better draft position is one of the few "rewards" for fans.

I don't want them to purposely lose, but I will care about this next year.  And chances are, those that complain about it, will care a bit too depending upon how the talent shakes out.