If Twins Trade One of Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax, Which Should it Be?

[Matthew Taylor]

Image courtesy of © William Purnell-Imagn Images

As the MLB trade deadline approaches, the Minnesota Twins are holding two of the most sought-after bullpen arms on the market: Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax. With both relievers boasting 2.5 years of team control and plenty of experience in high-leverage roles, the Twins are in a rare position of strength. According to The Athletic’s trade deadline big board, Duran and Jax now rank fifth and ninth overall among available players, and first and second among available relievers, following Emmanuel Clase being placed on leave. If the Twins decide to part with only one of them, the question becomes: which one do they trade, and which one do they keep?

When trying to evaluate who carries more trade value, Duran initially stands out. He has a 2.01 ERA over 49.1 innings this season, is still pumping fastballs at an average of 100.2 miles per hour, and is just 27 years old. He’s been the team’s most trusted closer in big moments, and has consistently delivered dominant performances since debuting. However, Griffin Jax’s profile is quietly just as appealing, if not more so. While his ERA is a modest 3.91 over 46 innings, he is striking out a higher percentage of batters than Duran (36.9%, compared to Duran’s 25.7%). Jax’s FIP is also lower than Duran’s (2.00 to 2.48), and he’s generating more whiffs and a higher chase rate from hitters. His average fastball velocity is trending upward, reaching 97 MPH this year compared to 96.5 in 2023. Duran, by contrast, has seen a dip in velocity from 101.8 in 2023 to 100.2 this season.

Interestingly, recent reports suggest that the Twins are seeking similar trade packages for either pitcher, reportedly asking for top-100 prospects whether it’s Duran or Jax. That reveals how closely their trade value is viewed by the Twins front office, and how compelling the argument for either pitcher has become. What’s especially intriguing is the built-in relationship between their individual market value. If the Twins choose to keep one and make it known that the other is not available, the trade value of the remaining pitcher could immediately rise. Removing either Duran or Jax from the market would leave the other as the undisputed top reliever available at the deadline, which could push contending teams to bid more aggressively for what would then become the rarest remaining bullpen upgrade.

In my opinion, if the Twins only trade one, they should keep Jax and trade Duran. Even though the trade value between the two is similar, if the Twins can extract a slightly better return for one of them, I believe Duran would command that premium. That alone could tilt the decision. Beyond that, I think there’s reason to be more optimistic about Jax moving forward than there is for Duran. Duran is still effective, but there are signs of a slow decline. His velocity is dipping; his strikeout numbers have decreased in each of the last three seasons; and his fastball usage continues to decline. While his breaking ball is still generating success this year, I’m skeptical that it will continue to be as effective if his fastball velocity continues to drop. If hitters no longer have to respect the same level of heat, they’ll be able to time up the offspeed stuff more easily, and the edge could erode quickly.

Jax, on the other hand, is trending in the opposite direction. He’s raised his strikeout rate for three consecutive seasons and is having the best swing-and-miss season of his career in 2025. Though he had a shaky start to the season, his underlying metrics have been strong all year, and his results are starting to catch up. He’s been negatively affected by WPA with untimely hits, which is not a predictive stat—though it can be a big penalty in the moment.

Age is often a factor in these decisions, but I don’t think it’s a major one here. Jax is 30 and under team control through his age-32 season. Duran is 27, but both pitchers are only signed through 2027. The difference in contract value also matters, especially for a team with a limited payroll. Jax is earning $2.3 million this year, while Duran is making $4.125 million. And with how arbitration works with valuing stats like saves, Duran’s contract figures to escalate at a more rapid rate heading into next season.

All of this adds up to a decision that leans toward keeping Jax and trading Duran. If the Twins can net two top-100 prospects for either pitcher, Duran might be the better trade chip to capitalize on. With Jax trending upward (despite the lesser results) and carrying a friendlier contract, he might be the better bet to anchor the bullpen for the next two years.

That’s where I stand, but I’d love to hear what you think. If the Twins only trade one of Jhoan Duran or Griffin Jax, who would you rather they keep? Would you sell high on Duran and lean into Jax’s underlying numbers? Or would you hold onto the younger, proven closer and try to get value for Jax while his peripherals shine? Let us know in the comments.

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[Mike Sixel]

Whichever gets you the better players back....though if I wanted to keep the best one, I'd keep Duran. 

As you point out, Duran is going to be much more expensive the next two years than Jax.....Much. 

[dberthia]

Does it have to be only one? I'd like to see them sell-off everybody and anybody they can get a warm body for- a "nuke and pave" approach, if you will. If only one, I'd keep Duran, simply because he's younger.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Whoever gives the return you want back

[Baumer67]

I feel Jax is more consistent than Duran.  You look at Duran's last 10 outings and he's given up like 13-14 hits and you add in the walks and he's not as unhittable as people think.  His strikeouts have dropped way off as well.  I say get rid of him now because he might be at his peak value.

[bunsen82]

I think they actually value Jax more. More strikeouts, more pitches.    So likely Duran who can likely command the higher package.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

I disagree. Assuming the offered packages are similar, trade Jax and keep Duran, even if he will be more expensive. Why? I start with the premise that the Twins can and should be contenders in 2026 and/or 2027. Duran is something every contending team must have - a reliable closer. Jax, while a strong late inning reliever, is most definitely NOT a closer. He cannot replace Duran. Conversely,  Varland and Stewart can replace Jax, leaving the bullpen hole in a less highly leveraged position.

Why do I say Jax is not a closer? Jax is 80 for 101 in hold or save opportunities from 2022-2024, 100 for 125 if we include YTD in 2025 (20 holds, 0-5 in save opportunities). 80%. I asked ChatGPT what was considered a good save percentage in MLB. The answer that came back - 88% or higher. Other websites said 85% or better. Doing the same analysis on Duran, he's 100-110 since 2022 (his first year), for 91%. Going strictly to saves, Duran is 74 for 83 (89%), both significantly better than Jax IMHO.

If you're going to trade one, trade Jax. We will miss Duran more than we will miss Jax. Why? Because Duran is a closer and Jax is not. CLosers are hard ot find and even harder to replace when you have a good one. 

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I say trade both because the Twins aren't going to sign either of them long term. Might as well sell while the value appears to be high for both.

[TL]

Agree with everything in this article. Would love to keep both but feels like that would be front office malpractice if you have a chance to flip a reliever for two top 100s and pass. 

[Dman]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I disagree. Assuming the offered packages are similar, trade Jax and keep Duran, even if he will be more expensive. Why? I start with the premise that the Twins can and should be contenders in 2026 and/or 2027. Duran is something every contending team must have - a reliable closer. Jax, while a strong late inning reliever, is most definitely NOT a closer. He cannot replace Duran. Conversely,  Varland and Stewart can replace Jax, leaving the bullpen hole in a less highly leveraged position.

Why do I say Jax is not a closer? Jax is 80 for 101 in hold or save opportunities from 2022-2024, 100 for 125 if we include YTD in 2025 (20 holds, 0-5 in save opportunities). 80%. I asked ChatGPT what was considered a good save percentage in MLB. The answer that came back - 88% or higher. Other websites said 85% or better. Doing the same analysis on Duran, he's 100-110 since 2022 (his first year), for 91%. Going strictly to saves, Duran is 74 for 83 (89%), both significantly better than Jax IMHO.

If you're going to trade one, trade Jax. We will miss Duran more than we will miss Jax. Why? Because Duran is a closer and Jax is not. CLosers are hard ot find and even harder to replace when you have a good one. 

I tend to agree.  How many games has Jax coughed up (seven or so)?  He also is too predictable IMO.  Throwing it into the ground in front of the plate.  Maybe it is old school, but power reliever's just seem to be valued more and despite the OP's excellent analysis I think he is valued more than Jax.

Maybe I am wrong, but I thought Duran's velocity dip had more to do with just controlling his pitches better.  I thought I saw him dial one up to 102 fairly recently. I do agree he gives up incredibly solid contact on his pitches at times but the fact he doesn't give up home runs means he isn't going to lose the game on one swing.

Both relievers have had issues throwing strikes at times and that has hurt them. Their FIP and xFIP are close.  All their stats match up pretty nice with Jax having an edge on swinging strikes. You can make a case for either one.  I just like Duran better in the closer role so I would keep him.

 

[arby58]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Whoever gives the return you want back

What if it was exactly the same return?

I'm still keeping Duran. The OP makes a strong case, but Jax has not been 'the man' as a closer at all this year. Even if Duran's MPH on his fastball is declining, it would still take a couple of years, at the cited linear rate, for Jax to catch up. I'll take those couple of years of Duran 'only' averaging 99 MPH.

[FlyingFinn]

If trading one, I trade Duran. I don't like the velocity drop. It's a few years back but there is some injury history with him. And I just think Jax needs some time as a closer to develop that mindset. And I do think the Twins will trade Duran if they trade one of them. Their reason - they don't like the higher $ relievers taking up a limited (self-imposed) cap space.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Up until this year, it felt like Duran was underperforming his stuff. More Eddie Guardado than Joe Nathan. I have advocated trading Duran for a while now, that hasn't changed.

[Maybebaby]

Duran simply because he should yield the best return.

[Fatbat]

Duran still sits at 100-102 velo and he is 27. Just pay him 💰. Jax,  he needs to stay because the org does NOT have a guy to fill his shoes ready. 
If they keep trending towards SP openers/bulk innings specialists, we will need 2/3 stoppers and 2 closers. 
It would be plain stupid to trade either guy. The new owner just needs to pay them both. 💰💰

[Fatbat]

13 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

I think they actually value Jax more. More strikeouts, more pitches.    So likely Duran who can likely command the higher package.  

Duran produces better WAR. 

[bunsen82]

6 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Duran produces better WAR. 

Jax has produced more WAR in the last 2 years than Duran. Duran struggled a bit last year, Jax a bit this spring. 

[TopGunn#22]

I've been giving this a lot of thought as we approach the deadline and especially with the Clase situation the Twins should almost feel compelled to trade one of them since they now corner the market.  Whether guys like Stewart or Coulombe are also dealt remains to be seen, but the fact is, the Twins could do quite well auctioning off 3 relief pitchers in the next 24 hours.

And as I've considered this I have to say that I've consistently been in favor of trading Duran and keeping Jax.  Duran has the "closer" stats and is younger, which should make the haul for trading him better than Jax.  However, Jax has been the better pitcher in my opinion.  Jax's 2025 season was tremendous and his underlying, more analytical stats show he's been just as good, if not better than Duran THIS season.

There is no denying the strikeout rate of Griffin Jax.  His fastball isn't as good as Duran's, but it's awfully good.  Jax's sweeper/slider is killer.  I have no doubt that Jax could be an All Star closer if the Twins put him in that role.  Add Varland to the mix and the Twins can absolutely afford to trade Duran for a King's Ransom and possibly even improve the team for the rest of THIS season, and certainly for 2026 and beyond.  

[UK Twin]

Duran for me. If you look at all the high leverage relievers being linked to trades, Duran is clearly the one with the best stuff. The situation with Clase gives Falvey stronger leverage in negotiations. I can see a contender overpaying for Duran just because his stuff is so good. I'm actually quite excited to see how the next 2 days pan out.

[bunsen82]

15 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I've been giving this a lot of thought as we approach the deadline and especially with the Clase situation the Twins should almost feel compelled to trade one of them since they now corner the market.  Whether guys like Stewart or Coulombe are also dealt remains to be seen, but the fact is, the Twins could do quite well auctioning off 3 relief pitchers in the next 24 hours.

And as I've considered this I have to say that I've consistently been in favor of trading Duran and keeping Jax.  Duran has the "closer" stats and is younger, which should make the haul for trading him better than Jax.  However, Jax has been the better pitcher in my opinion.  Jax's 2025 season was tremendous and his underlying, more analytical stats show he's been just as good, if not better than Duran THIS season.

There is no denying the strikeout rate of Griffin Jax.  His fastball isn't as good as Duran's, but it's awfully good.  Jax's sweeper/slider is killer.  I have no doubt that Jax could be an All Star closer if the Twins put him in that role.  Add Varland to the mix and the Twins can absolutely afford to trade Duran for a King's Ransom and possibly even improve the team for the rest of THIS season, and certainly for 2026 and beyond.  

The Twins control the market and they don't have to sell.   They can maintain their high prices.  As they always say you need 2 to tango.  So will someone be willing to pay up, or 2 or 3 teams and pay the exorbitant prices Falvey wants for Jax, Duran and Ryan.  I heard this morning some are trying to state there could be a work stoppage in 2027 so trying to lower trade values.  I think its a bogus argument.  

As to your take, I agree I think Jax has the overall better stuff.  Duran is primarily fastball.  If the fastball comes down to 98 or 97 mph,  I think he will become extremely hittable.  Jax has the spin the pitches to continue to do well even if the velocity comes down.   

[tony&rodney]

One thing we cannot know is the willingness of other teams to work with the Twins. The Athletic has an interesting article up that discusses the ease/difficulty teams have in discussing trades with other clubs. From the start of the 2019-2020 off season to July of 2025, the Twins have made fewer trades than all but 5 organizations. The Twins have completed 31 trades according to the data. which is well below Tampa Bay (76) and Milwaukee (58). There are 9 teams the Twins have not traded with and 14 teams where only 1 trade was completed. 

Perhaps there are barriers we believe to be passable which are not open. If we think the Cubs or Phillies might make reasonable trade partners with the Twins but these two teams haven't completed a single transaction, obstacles may exist. 

These are details well beyond our knowledge which certainly affect the ability of the Twins to complete the simplest of deals much less trades for top players. I have no expectations.

[rdehring]

Great article, Matt.  Agree with everything you said.

Expect the return for Duran will be a bit better than Jax.  If that is the case, I say make the trade.  But I am hopeful that they only trade one, not both.  Also wouldn't be surprised if they move Coloumbe. 

In addition to a higher salary over the next couple years, I also suspect that Duran will be the harder of the two to extend between now and the end of 2027.  And the Twins bullpen should be fine with Jax, Varland and Stewart as their late inning guys.  And who knows, maybe Canterino will finally get healthy next year and be that fourth guy at the end of games.  

 

[2wins87]

There are some things that Duran does very well that he's maintained or improved even when the 4-seam velocity dipping from 102 to 100.

1) He's a ground ball machine: 65% this year, 63% for his career.  Jax is 45% for his career, maybe a bit closer to 50% for his seasons as a reliever.  I think Duran has improved a bit from an already high mark, probably because his splinker actually works a bit better when it's a couple MPH slower.

2) Very low barrel rate - 3% this year and 4.5% for his career.  Jax is at 8.3% for his career, maybe around 7% in his relief seasons. 

You can dig into xWOBACON, xERA, and other contact related stats to find similar things.

Just looking at Jax's gaudy K and xFIP numbers it seems like a no brainer, but digging a little deeper into the contact numbers, Jax has consistently given up more dangerous contact when he does get hit.  I don't think it is "luck" at all that Duran has tended to slightly outperform his FIP and xFIP while Jax has tended to slightly underperform, so I'd expect that to continue for the next 2 years too.

Overall, I'd still say they are very close both now and projecting forward, so I would just take the best deal.  But a lot of the arguments I see about Jax and Duran seem to actually underrate Duran.

[bunsen82]

24 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

One thing we cannot know is the willingness of other teams to work with the Twins. The Athletic has an interesting article up that discusses the ease/difficulty teams have in discussing trades with other clubs. From the start of the 2019-2020 off season to July of 2025, the Twins have made fewer trades than all but 5 organizations. The Twins have completed 31 trades according to the data. which is well below Tampa Bay (76) and Milwaukee (58). There are 9 teams the Twins have not traded with and 14 teams where only 1 trade was completed. 

Perhaps there are barriers we believe to be passable which are not open. If we think the Cubs or Phillies might make reasonable trade partners with the Twins but these two teams haven't completed a single transaction, obstacles may exist. 

These are details well beyond our knowledge which certainly affect the ability of the Twins to complete the simplest of deals much less trades for top players. I have no expectations.

Its the reason why I actually really like Falvey in this trade deadline.  He creates a value for his players and isn't willing to deviate from it.  He isn't going undervalue an asset just to make a deal.  He also generally doesn't overpay, other than 2022.   So there will be less trades.  In general Falvey wants to win trades, that doesn't work well to trade a lot when others are generally looking to only make "fair" deals.  The other thing you have to consider is we have basically been in no mans land last couple of trade deadlines,  so not trading away players or signing new ones at the deadline,  depressing our trade totals.  We are in the perfect position of having 3 of the best assets available on the market.  Teams can either pay up,  or they won't.  My guess is at least 1 will for either Duran or Jax.  The question is does someone overpay for Ryan? They currently state odds are low, honestly I put it at 50/50.  He is the best starter available and someone may feel desperate enough to trade to try to win the World Series.  

[NYCTK]

30 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

One thing we cannot know is the willingness of other teams to work with the Twins. The Athletic has an interesting article up that discusses the ease/difficulty teams have in discussing trades with other clubs. From the start of the 2019-2020 off season to July of 2025, the Twins have made fewer trades than all but 5 organizations. The Twins have completed 31 trades according to the data. which is well below Tampa Bay (76) and Milwaukee (58). There are 9 teams the Twins have not traded with and 14 teams where only 1 trade was completed. 

Perhaps there are barriers we believe to be passable which are not open. If we think the Cubs or Phillies might make reasonable trade partners with the Twins but these two teams haven't completed a single transaction, obstacles may exist. 

These are details well beyond our knowledge which certainly affect the ability of the Twins to complete the simplest of deals much less trades for top players. I have no expectations.

I think Falvey has a real problem with internal talent evaluation. I think he really believes his players are significantly better than they are. I believe him when he says he thinks this team has the talent to be a contender. It explains why he hasn't done anything for two and a half years to supplement the existing roster and explains why they haven't traded much with other organizations. 

 

[tony&rodney]

2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I think Falvey has a real problem with internal talent evaluation. I think he really believes his players are significantly better than they are. I believe him when he says he thinks this team has the talent to be a contender. It explains why he hasn't done anything for two and a half years to supplement the existing roster and explains why they haven't traded much with other organizations. 

 

This is an ongoing disagreement among people on Twins Daily, one not likely to be resolved or change. I don't believe people should get upset at others opinions, especially when it involves sports (entertainment).

Naturally we don't know what is going on with Falvey but my views are copacetic with what you expressed. The last two winters were the last straw for me. There must have been some value in a number of flawed players but nothing was done. We hear, repeatedly, the Twins have a playoff roster. Sadly, the numbers and eyeballs tell me a different story. But, others see it different. So it goes.

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, bunsen82 said:

Jax has produced more WAR in the last 2 years than Duran. Duran struggled a bit last year, Jax a bit this spring. 

Thats quite the cherry pick. Duran has 4 times as much war this season and even if you leave out the 2021 season of Jax. (-1.1), Duran has more career war ‘22-25. Both are invaluable and neither of them should be traded.

[tony&rodney]

18 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

Its the reason why I actually really like Falvey in this trade deadline.  He creates a value for his players and isn't willing to deviate from it.  He isn't going undervalue an asset just to make a deal.  He also generally doesn't overpay, other than 2022.   So there will be less trades.  In general Falvey wants to win trades, that doesn't work well to trade a lot when others are generally looking to only make "fair" deals.  The other thing you have to consider is we have basically been in no mans land last couple of trade deadlines,  so not trading away players or signing new ones at the deadline,  depressing our trade totals.  We are in the perfect position of having 3 of the best assets available on the market.  Teams can either pay up,  or they won't.  My guess is at least 1 will for either Duran or Jax.  The question is does someone overpay for Ryan? They currently state odds are low, honestly I put it at 50/50.  He is the best starter available and someone may feel desperate enough to trade to try to win the World Series.  

If GM's do not trust or have a reasonable relationship to discuss players openly and honestly, teams are less likely to deal. That is the premise of the article.

For example, if a team was interested in Edouard Julien in November of 2023 but could not receive any hint of a rational idea what was possible when dealing with the Twins, this results in future reticence on the part of a GM to even call the Twins. Now substitute any name for Julien. Again, this is basically what the article lays out.

Myself, I have zero idea what Falvey thinks about. I do know he just recently stated that the Twins had the talent to be a playoff team. Do you see that?

[NYCTK]

9 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This is an ongoing disagreement among people on Twins Daily, one not likely to be resolved or change. I don't believe people should get upset at others opinions, especially when it involves sports (entertainment).

Naturally we don't know what is going on with Falvey but my views are copacetic with what you expressed. The last two winters were the last straw for me. There must have been some value in a number of flawed players but nothing was done. We hear, repeatedly, the Twins have a playoff roster. Sadly, the numbers and eyeballs tell me a different story. But, others see it different. So it goes.

It is also really curious how he seems to be stuck in the late 90s-early 00s thinking of dismissing defensive value. I guess, it could be a decent strategy if defense were being overvalued but, then again he's also the guy that hired Andrelton Simmons for over $10 million, so I really don't know. 

It's just so frustrating - and I'd say it's telling - how seemingly every Twins player thats come up in his regime has been inadequate defensively. 

[twinfan]

They probably need to trade one or the other but definitely not both. And they should trade for major league talent or AAA talent but not suspects in the low minors. And do not trade Pablo or Ryan. I honestly believe that if we get healthy next year we can contend for the playoffs- even though we stink right now. They are on MLB today but I cringe when I watch the poor offense that never seems to do well when on TV in my area. Also, trading Bader should be a no-brainer but not Castro (IMHO).