The Pressly Paradox: Why Selling Relievers Is a Precarious Path

[TheLeviathan]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

The players coming back would have to be ready to go for us opening day 2026. Trading for guys who are 2 or more years away will be a disservice to the dozen players we have with an expiring contract in 2027

It sounds like my optimal return is a little more flexible.  I'm good with dudes who line up with Jenkins and Culpepper.  

I guess I just don't see how this roster does much without significant reconstruction.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, TheLeviathan said:

It sounds like my optimal return is a little more flexible.  I'm good with dudes who line up with Jenkins and Culpepper.  

I guess I just don't see how this roster does much without significant reconstruction.

It's so hard. Lewis, CC, Buxton, Jeffers are here for sure next year. That's 4 of 8 fielders. Then you have Keaschell somewhere if healthy. Martin for Castro. One of Larnach or Wallner ( I can't see them moving on from both, but they both could be back because DEPTH). You really only need a 2B (Lee, Keaschell, ?) and 1B (Keaschell, Lewis, ?) and one corner OF. It is hard to fix if Lewis, Buxton, CC, Jeffers, Wallner don't hit and aren't healthy......

[TheLeviathan]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's so hard. Lewis, CC, Buxton, Jeffers are here for sure next year. That's 4 of 8 fielders. Then you have Keaschell somewhere if healthy. Martin for Castro. One of Larnach or Wallner ( I can't see them moving on from both, but they both could be back because DEPTH). You really only need a 2B (Lee, Keaschell, ?) and 1B (Keaschell, Lewis, ?) and one corner OF. It is hard to fix if Lewis, Buxton, CC, Jeffers, Wallner don't hit and aren't healthy......

This will sound terrible....but those four guys can't really be counted on IMO.  Buck is great and I hope we see this wave of health and success continue....but I wouldn't bet on it.  CC is only going to get worse.  Lewis....who knows?  Lee?  Keaschall?

I just need more athletes and darts to throw at the board.  And I'm happy to give up relievers to do that.

[P Meyer]

1 hour ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I understand the point you are trying to make, but I don't completely buy the argument.  There are a handful of layers between the GM and the player. The GM isn't sitting in the cage at 10:00 pm working with the players. Also, a great coach can still fail in bringing a player along, players fail for multiple reasons that have nothing to do with coaching. Player development is so much a crap shoot.

Joe Ryan was drafted in the 7th round. Should every team in MLB fire their GM for passing on him in the draft?

I understand that your mind is set. Nothing I say will change your view of Falvey and the fact you think he needs to be fired. I just have them much lower on the "blame totem pole" than you do.

 

The argument is that the Twins seem to get less from their developmental program than expectation. So either all of these picks were bad or the developmental process is flawed somewhere. The question ultimately is what drafted hitters have the Twins developed into major league contributors since Falvey took over? The answer seems to be Ryan Jeffers. I am open to others correcting me if I am wrong.

 

For players like Keaschall and Jenkins it is obviously early, but for other like Brooks Lee and Larnach and Wallner, there has bene plenty of time. And while yes, not every prospect hits, I am not including the vast majority of players who haven't even developed this far.

[LastOnePicked]

I just don't think the comparison here is appropriate. Pressly was a crucial component to an already-strong and athletic Astros team - a team that was ready for championship run, from the minors to the front office. That's not the Twins.

The Astros built their dominance on years of high draft picks and a complete organizational overhaul. That's the route we should be taking, not holding on to relievers who may - or may not - remain healthy on a sub-.500 team in 2026.

[Mike Sixel]

42 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

This will sound terrible....but those four guys can't really be counted on IMO.  Buck is great and I hope we see this wave of health and success continue....but I wouldn't bet on it.  CC is only going to get worse.  Lewis....who knows?  Lee?  Keaschall?

I just need more athletes and darts to throw at the board.  And I'm happy to give up relievers to do that.

Hey, I agree....but they aren't giving up on Lewis, CC, Jeffers or Buxton. And they aren't getting rid of both corner OFers, not their style. So, IMO, it will be a challenge.

[Doc Lenz]

The Pressly trade was terrible but top five ever and number one for me was Aaron Hicks for JR Murphy. Unbelievable baseball acumen.

[Doc Lenz]

4 hours ago, arby58 said:

Blaming player development on the GM seems odd. He drafts them, he doesn't get on the field and do fielding practice with them. Also keep in mind that his first draft would have been 2017, so those players don't even get started mostly until 2018. 2020 was a wasted year for development as well. Several position players they drafted are high on their prospect board (Jenkins, Keaschall, Emma, Culpepper). The jury is also still out on guys like Lewis, Wallner, and Lee as well.

He hires the coaches who are supposed to make them better.

[TheLeviathan]

41 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Hey, I agree....but they aren't giving up on Lewis, CC, Jeffers or Buxton. And they aren't getting rid of both corner OFers, not their style. So, IMO, it will be a challenge.

Agreed, which is why I just want more options.

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

Not narrow at all. You draft and develop. Falvey neither drafted or developed Buxton. Falvey hasn't developed anyone into anything...yet. Maybe Keaschall, Maybe Wallner, Maybe Larnach, but none of them yet. Lewis hasn't completed a season yet, not even one season of him. That's not development. I'm suggesting if Falvey trades Jax or Duran for top 100 prospects, where is there any proof he knows how to develop that talent into a major league star? 

You overlook that maybe the talent wasn’t there to be developed. Drafting is a crapshoot. Who did this regime miss out on that was obvious

[Fire Dan Gladden]

1 hour ago, P Meyer said:

The argument is that the Twins seem to get less from their developmental program than expectation. So either all of these picks were bad or the developmental process is flawed somewhere. The question ultimately is what drafted hitters have the Twins developed into major league contributors since Falvey took over? The answer seems to be Ryan Jeffers. I am open to others correcting me if I am wrong.

 

For players like Keaschall and Jenkins it is obviously early, but for other like Brooks Lee and Larnach and Wallner, there has bene plenty of time. And while yes, not every prospect hits, I am not including the vast majority of players who haven't even developed this far.

For me, the discussion needs to include drafts and acquired prospects, as both are important.

My response really comes down to one question: What should the expectation be for the developmental program and do the Twins (or more appropriately Falvey) do worse, as well, or better than other organizations? There are a lot of moving pieces to this discussion as some teams place less priority on prospects and regularly trade them. Other teams rely solely on prospects, some draft heavy from college, some take more chances on HS pitchers.

You really can't just put a number on it and blame or cheer the GM. In the Twins case, we-as-fans have no clue about decisions that were axed due to the ownership chaos over the last few years. When start factoring in the unknowable items (injuries) do we blame the GM for that as well?

[Doctor Gast]

6 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

In 2018 they were around 8 games under at the deadline. It was probably hard to foresee the turnaround coming in 2019. They had control of Pressly and they really needed him in 2019. They signed Blake Parker. He failed and was released by the deadline. They then needed to trade assets for Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson. 

They should have learned that it is far easier to trade a good late inning reliever than acquire one. 

We really needed Pressly in '19, the BP was burned out, like almost always.

[Vanimal46]

2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

It sounds like my optimal return is a little more flexible.  I'm good with dudes who line up with Jenkins and Culpepper.  

I guess I just don't see how this roster does much without significant reconstruction.

We may have to push Culpepper and Jenkins for 2026 at some point. Otherwise we’re truly going to waste this strong pitching staff. Lopez, Ober, Ryan all set for FA in 2027. As well as Duran, Jax, and Topa. 

[RaoulDuke]

Pressley turned out to be a regrettable move, but I think Houston unlocked something for him to really take a step forward.  He was also a unique strikeout arm vs the rest of the Twins bullpen at the time.  Rodney was closing, Taylor Rodgers still converting from starter, Hildenberger as a junky side armer, Duffey throwing curves, ect.  

Right now the pen has Duran, Jax, Stewart, Varland all as strikeout power arms.  It would almost be criminal to not sell at least one imo, when the rest of the roster is lacking in so many places.

They also haven't shown a willingness to go multiple years on a contract with a reliever, so how many of them are they realistically going to extend when they reach free agency?

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, old nurse said:

You overlook that maybe the talent wasn’t there to be developed. Drafting is a crapshoot. Who did this regime miss out on that was obvious

WEll, Lee was drafted 1:5, so lots of guys I'd guess (if Lee can't hit). And, it isn't a crapshoot if you mean random. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

We may have to push Culpepper and Jenkins for 2026 at some point. Otherwise we’re truly going to waste this strong pitching staff. Lopez, Ober, Ryan all set for FA in 2027. As well as Duran, Jax, and Topa. 

And Gonzalez. Heck, why not push Sabato now and see. There have a tiny window with this staff, and are just doing their normal thing, which has never worked.

[D.C Twins]

Correa has already gone over the cliff and is currently in free fall...

Lewis cannot be depended on and therefore cannot be part of any serious plans. 

Except for controllable starting pitchers and position players <27 ... for a respectable return... SELL BABY SELL!

[D.C Twins]

You do not need elite closers for a team that is not yet ready to compete for a championship. 

The 2026 Twins will not be ready to compete for a championship.

We will not sign Jax or Duran to a long term contract so they'll be gone ~2027 anyway..... 

If there is good trade to be had... take it! (Obviously keep them if there offers are not where they need to be.... which should include a good catching prospect...)

[DocBauer]

Just to be clear, I'm not opposed to trading one of Jax or Duran and getting a quality return, if it's there. They are asking for a pair of top 100 prospects since they are  very, very good and each controllable for 2 + years at this point. 

I don't believe they will get that. But it's a place to start for an ask. 

What the Twins DON'T need is a collection of A level prospects, no matter where they rank on anyone's list. This team is not poised for a complete rebuild,,,which seldom works out the way as hoped or expected...it just needs a retooling.

The current FO and coaching staff and scouts, and depth in the system, would seem to indicate replace one of Duran or Jax wouldn't be insurmountable. Without adding any FA, or trade acquisitions, there remains the possibility of converting one of several options to the pen. Even if it's "old school" get your feet wet and you can then can convert back being a starter. 

But it better be a collection of 2 or 3 players ready to contribute relatively soon or you just cut off the legs of your team's immediate future; the pitching staff. 

They ABSOLUTELY have to move the impending FA wherever possible, for what they can get. Perhaps I'm being naive, but Castro and Bader have some pretty good value for a team in the hunt looking for a boost. I think Coulombe is slightly behind those 2 but not by much. How many playoff teams couldn't use a proven LHRP who gets batters out from both sides in the middle innings? Paddack has the least total value, IMO, but he could fill a #4-5 slot for a team hurting in those areas looking to win every game they can.

Again, how much value comes back is TBD. It's POSSIBLE a lower level prospect could be thrown in to make the return better. Can the FO negotiate deals that can bring in a blocked 1B or 4th OF type? Can they bring in an arm that has lost luster as a SP option from a team that could be a potential pen option going forward?

That's what the need to TRY for. 

I think Falvey is a man of integrity who would never look to hurt the Twins future. Not only is that not his style, but he's still playing Twins overlord for his career, with or without being a Twins employee.

But unless overwhelmed by a deal tomorrow, I still maintain the best move is to wait for the offseason to move controllable players. This allows the Twins to take a deeper dive in to what they have, what they need, and what's coming up.

Some would say teams are more desperate to overpay for a RP NOW. But 2 years of control of Duran and Jax...if not others...this offseason really shouldn't lower their value. Especially if you consider more teams being in the mix to add to build for 2026.

Of course, there's also the possibility of new ownership MAYBE offering extensions here and there. But that's a long range bet I'm not willing to take TODAY. I just think the smart play is to concentrate on what you can get for the expiring FA, and hold back for the long view in the offseason unless blown away by an offer.

 

[In My La Z boy]

11 hours ago, old nurse said:

You overlook that maybe the talent wasn’t there to be developed. Drafting is a crapshoot. Who did this regime miss out on that was obvious

I guess I am making the larger point about trading high quality major league talent for prospects. I'd rather be the team that trades prospects for high quality major league talent. Like the Sonny Gray for Chase Petty deal. We got what we thought we'd get out of Sonny. And the Reds are yet to reap the benefits. Maybe they will, maybe they won't.?Our maybe's haven't worked out under Falvey. Toronto has Berrios, and we haven't reaped the benefits, Pressly went on to be Pressly, and we got prospects who didn't pan out. Jax, Duran and Ryan are proven studs. Don't trade them for magic beans Falvey can't turn into studs. That's all I was getting at.

[Major League Ready]

13 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Hey, I agree....but they aren't giving up on Lewis, CC, Jeffers or Buxton. And they aren't getting rid of both corner OFers, not their style. So, IMO, it will be a challenge.

How are you counting?  Honest question because Bader likely won't be back and he started more games in a corner OF spot than Larnach and Wallner.  (74 vs 53 & 45)  If they keep Wallner and trade Larnach, they will be down 2 corner OFers. To start next year, they start with Buck and Wallner with some combination of Martin / Clemmens and Keaschall.  They will still have Rodriguez / Jenkins & GG waiting in the wings.  I guess you count Eeles in that group too.  Normally I would agree they would not get rid of 2 corner OFers but they already have replacements that are ready and a few that are close.   

I could see waiting until the off-season to move Larnach for a couple reasons.  First, it gives them the rest of the season to evaluate Martin / Keaschall and Clemmens.  All three of those players play multiple positions so they retain flexibility.  Second, they would be selling low on Larnach.  Waiting until the off-season could net a greater return.    

[old nurse]

11 hours ago, RaoulDuke said:

Pressley turned out to be a regrettable move, but I think Houston unlocked something for him to really take a step forward.  He was also a unique strikeout arm vs the rest of the Twins bullpen at the time.  Rodney was closing, Taylor Rodgers still converting from starter, Hildenberger as a junky side armer, Duffey throwing curves, ect.  

Right now the pen has Duran, Jax, Stewart, Varland all as strikeout power arms.  It would almost be criminal to not sell at least one imo, when the rest of the roster is lacking in so many places.

They also haven't shown a willingness to go multiple years on a contract with a reliever, so how many of them are they realistically going to extend when they reach free agency?

When asked what Houston told him to make him to make him better Ran stated nothing different than what the Twins were telling me 

[old nurse]

9 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

WEll, Lee was drafted 1:5, so lots of guys I'd guess (if Lee can't hit). And, it isn't a crapshoot if you mean random. 

Zach Neto is the only position player in that draft’s first 2 rounds to have a double digit B war Roman Anthony was taken late in the second round.  That was 44 position players after him.  Trying to project players they can only judge by the talent level the have played against. Projecting the future is a guess. 

[thelanges5]

Rather not sell Jax or Duran. However we do have a catcher problem starting next season and we don’t have many LHP on the farm. Jax to the Dodgers for Rushing and Ferris is about the only proposal I’ve seen that I really like. 

[JDubs]

Quote

I don't want to overstate things but it very well might have been the difference between getting swept out of the first round and making a deep run in the playoffs.

For someone who didn't want to overstate things, you made an incredibly silly overstatement here. That team lost by 12 runs over 3 games -- you seriously think one more reliever would have changed that? Somehow Randy Dobnak magically pitches late into the game because he knows Pressly is back there? Come on, be realistic.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

I guess I am making the larger point about trading high quality major league talent for prospects. I'd rather be the team that trades prospects for high quality major league talent. Like the Sonny Gray for Chase Petty deal. We got what we thought we'd get out of Sonny. And the Reds are yet to reap the benefits. Maybe they will, maybe they won't.?Our maybe's haven't worked out under Falvey. Toronto has Berrios, and we haven't reaped the benefits, Pressly went on to be Pressly, and we got prospects who didn't pan out. Jax, Duran and Ryan are proven studs. Don't trade them for magic beans Falvey can't turn into studs. That's all I was getting at.

But Ryan, Duran and Jax were magic beans 

[saviking]

20 hours ago, In My La Z boy said:

Thank you. My sentiments exactly. We already have the 2015 Royals bullpen. That was a critical component of their WS title team. Don't wreck the best area of the squad trying to fix the other areas, especially for prospects. Especially when both Jax & Duran are still controlled for 2 more years. Will we get less for them in December than today, probably not. No hurry here, no panic selling please.

Pretty much agree. The most I would do is trade Jax, but only if you got a big package. My hunch is Duran is the only one who could get a huge package. 

[terrydactyls]

The premise of this article is very similar to me of the following.  A friend of mine was looking for a good used car but wasn't very familiar with all the types of cars that are available.  I suggested that she go to the Carmax near her and look at what's available and test drive any she might be interested in.  Another friend jumped in to say (and this is the part that is similar to the article) that she had a friend who had a cousin (I'm not exaggerating) who had a bad experience with Carmax and, therefore, she wouldn't go there under any circumstances.  Just because the Presley trade didn't work out (and I thought it was a good trade), that's not a reason to never do it again.

[dxpavelka]

23 hours ago, Patzky said:

Fans will be understandably disappointed if we don't sell. But we don't have to.

 

a lot of those fans are not very smart

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

The premise of this article is very similar to me of the following.  A friend of mine was looking for a good used car but wasn't very familiar with all the types of cars that are available.  I suggested that she go to the Carmax near her and look at what's available and test drive any she might be interested in.  Another friend jumped in to say (and this is the part that is similar to the article) that she had a friend who had a cousin (I'm not exaggerating) who had a bad experience with Carmax and, therefore, she wouldn't go there under any circumstances.  Just because the Presley trade didn't work out (and I thought it was a good trade), that's not a reason to never do it again.

I could cite many multiple examples of trades that don't work out.  I could do the same for trades that do work out.  I can tell you this much though, if you trade pitching you'll find yourself in a position of needing pitching.  Seems kind of foolish.