Could Trevor Larnach Net Minnesota Twins a Trade Offer Worth Taking?

[Adam Friedman]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

As the Twins approach the trade deadline staring down the possibility of making just one playoff appearance in five seasons, it's time to consider shaking up the core that has underwhelmed. Larnach is one of the core players who makes the most sense to move. With him plateauing as a good but flawed regular and Matt Wallner, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Walker Jenkins, and Luke Keaschall (who can play outfield) all in their plans for the foreseeable future, now is the moment to trade away the burly lefty.

It's been a tumultuous career for the Twins' 2018 first-round pick. Larnach has battled through injuries and made significant adjustments to a league that stopped throwing him almost any fastballs. He seems to have settled in as a solid hitter against righties, with little defensive value, and not as much power as the team would've wanted. He leaned further into that medium-power profile, significantly flattening his swing in the offseason, seeking more line drives. Given his value at the plate and two and a half years of team control, the Twins still should be able to get some value in a trade from a contender. His increasing salary via arbitration could be additional motivation for the front office to shop him.

There have been some similar players moved in the past couple of trade deadlines, but of course, there is no exact match for Larnach. We'll try to figure out the value based on those trades.

A few teams may target Larnach as just the left-handed slugger they need for their playoff push, too. Those are teams struggling against righties and/or lacking production from left field or at designated hitter. There could also be people in those front offices who may see untapped potential in the 28-year-old. They may think there's more power, given his solid but formerly high-end max exit velocities.

Benchmark Trades
Using past trades to assess potential future trades is tricky, because every player and contract situation is unique. Larnach, as a trade candidate, is especially unusual, because established big-leaguers with two and a half years of team control aren't often traded. There are, however, a couple of helpful comparisons.

Jake Burger to the Rangers
After another lackluster season for Miami, the Fish decided to move Jake Burger ahead of the 2025 season, while he was still under team control for four years. Texas got a bat with limited defensive value and no baserunning acumen. Also similar to Larnach, he was a former first-round pick and top-100 prospect. The Marlins sought to replace Burger with prospects who held more upside down the line, despite the extreme uncertainty surrounding each player in the return.

Miami received three young prospects in the deal, none of whom are close to contributing to the big-league club, but each had a very high ceiling. Echedvry Vargas was ranked 17th in MLB.com's Rangers rankings, Max Acosta was a bit lower on the list but formerly a highly-regarded toolsy prospect, and Bryan Mendoza seemed to be on the rise, dominating Single-A hitters to a 2.18 ERA in 2024, before a promotion to High-A.

This trade shows the perils of doing a deal like this. On its face, Miami got a few prospects who could impact the organization and be stars if they hit the jackpot. But just half a season later, Vargas is getting dominated in High-A, Acosta is stalling out in Triple-A, and Mendoza has completely lost the strike zone, with 29 walks in 50.2 innings.

If the Twins go for a group of extremely young prospects, the odds are that they'll come up empty and ship out a contributor for nothing.

Lane Thomas to the Guardians
The return Washington got for Lane Thomas at the last trade deadline, when they sent him to Cleveland, is playing out much better than the Burger deal. Thomas had less remaining team control than Larnach at the time of the deal, but was also a slightly better player than Larnach.

The most exciting piece headed to Washington was Alex Clemney, a big 20-year-old lefty. At the time of the trade, he was 19 at Single-A with a 4.67 ERA, but he was striking out 12.6 batters per nine innings. This performance was accompanied by a high walk rate, which he still maintains at High-A. However, he has brought his ERA down to 3.07 as a very young player for his level. He also appeared at the Futures Game in 2025, so he may be on track to make this trade hurt for the Guardians.

With Clemney, Cleveland gave up José Tena, a switch-hitting infielder who was blocked by their solid depth. He slotted in as the Nationals' primary third baseman in early 2025 and has been an average at the plate but carried putrid defense, so he's back in Triple-A, where maybe he can improve as a hitter and learn to play first base. Washington also received Rafael Ramirez Jr., who is still 19 and on a sound track so far, after receiving a substantial signing bonus of $800,000 as an international free agent.

Washington pulled off a much better deal than Miami, and something comparable could be possible with Larnach for the Twins. If they have a chance to add a Tena-type Triple-A player and upside with youngsters like Clemney and Ramirez Jr., they should pull the trigger.

Potential Suitors
If Larnach is on the move in the coming week, Minnesota will likely send him to a contending team that is struggling to get production from left field and DH. A few National League contenders fit the bill.

Los Angeles Dodgers
A team we'd think has no flaws, the Dodgers have received poor production from left field, collectively putting up -0.1 fWAR from the position. They may get sick of throwing the floundering Michael Conforto out there against righties, so Larnach could solve that issue and slot in for them for the next few years. Undoubtedly, they'll have no issues with paying his salary.

The Dodgers, of course, are the best organization in baseball and have some intriguing prospects who could be available in this deal. Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll would be wise to target Jackson Ferris. He has struggled to throw strikes this season, but is a nasty lefty with a similar profile to Clemney. The Dodgers received Ferris for Michael Busch, who is similar in many ways to Larnach, so this may be a match. Larnach and Ferris could also be a part of a larger deal involving Jhoan Duran or Griffin Jax, should the Dodges win those bidding wars.

Beyond Ferris, the Twins could try to revitalize James Outman, who has been horrendous since his breakout 2023 season. With his all-around skillset, he'd be worth trying to fix as an add-in.

San Diego Padres
The Padres have struggled against left-handed pitchers and have gotten nothing from left field, which is currently being manned by Gavin Sheets. Larnach could be a massive boost for them down the stretch to address these needs. A.J. Preller has gone all in at recent deadlines, leaving their system a bit light. Therefore, setting his sights a bit lower on a functional player (but not a superstar) could be wise. The Friars are also looking to move Dylan Cease, given their financial challenges, and the Twins could try to get involved as a third team in such a deal. Cease would go elsewhere, but Larnach would land with San Diego and Minnesota could snare another team's prospect in the spin of the wheel.

Of what's left in their system, most of their best prospects are either too talented for Larnach's value or very young. Right-handed reliever Bradgley Rodriguez, is one appealing name. The flamethrower has appeared in the majors this season, but is now back at Triple-A. He throws hard, gets strikeouts, and limits walks. At a deadline where the Twins may be dealing Duran or Jax, Rodriguez could be a wise target to fill in at the back end of the bullpen in 2026 and beyond.

Henry Baez and Braden Nett in Double-A may be more exciting for the Twins. Both are hard throwers, thriving at the level at 22 and 23, respectively. Baez has much better control, while Nett has a superior prospect pedigree.

While this is not the best farm system in baseball, Preller always seems to replenish it with more talent. It could be a good deal for everybody if the Twins get one or two of these pitching prospects, plus a teenage lottery ticket-type prospect.

Cincinnati Reds
A team that we know is familiar to the Twins, Cincinnati has a problem in left field because Spencer Steer is stalling out, and Will Benson is struggling. The Twins could pick up the phone with this familiar trading partner and make something happen, providing the help that Emilio Pagán is asking for. Reds fans desperately wanted Josh Naylor, who was traded from Arizona to Seattle, so Larnach could be a nice plan B.

As a team (like the Twins) who relies on their farm system to make up their big-league roster, Cincinnati doesn't have much sitting in Triple-A that matches Larnach's value.

Héctor Rodríguez, a 21-year-old left-handed hitting corner outfielder, is an interesting potential target. His reputation is that of a free swinger, but this season, he has increased his walk rate despite moving up to Double-A, and he has seemingly developed more home run power. While a Trevor Larnach-level career may be an excellent outcome for him, his bat-to-ball skills and potentially newfound power, along with the potential for solid defense, show some upside. Adding him for Larnach would get another player for a new core and some upside.

Zach Maxwell is a behemoth of a right-handed pitcher, standing at 6'6" and throwing in the upper 90s. He's struggled at Triple-A and has not been able to find the necessary control to succeed. At that height, he may fit into the Twins' mold and be a pitcher they could target, as well.

A fun but different potential target is Christian Encarnacion-Strand. The former Twins prospect has been horrible with the big-league club, but perhaps the Twins still see something in him, even after trading him. Fixing him could allow them to address their perennial right-handed hitting masher and first-baseman needs.

Larnach can help some contending teams out there, and it seems likely the Twins could get some value for him and potentially some real upside. Is he a good piece to move to start transitioning the Twins' core towards a younger group?

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[Patzky]

Would free up 9 for Jenkins.. 😁

 

I'm ok with moving on from one of Wallner or Larnach, similar to ok with moving on from one of Jax-Duran. Moving Willi would net a larger return. 

[TwinsDr2021]

I don't really need much in return for Larnach, I would be looking for a young guy that doesn't require a 40 man roster spot. Larnach is a slightly above average platoon player, the twins seem like they develop these type of players almost at will, so just clearing up a 40 man spot is good enough for me. (Same could be said about 4 or 5 other guys on the 40 man)

[old nurse]

The prospect in a return for Larnach would depend on the skill of the scouts to identify a talented player that the other team does not seem to recognize.  Larnach has been a just above replacement level player. Mabe in a different system he would make that final development, but the team is more likely to to get a Dietrich Enns than a Joe Ryan  

[Parfigliano]

5 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I don't really need much in return for Larnach, I would be looking for a young guy that doesn't require a 40 man roster spot. Larnach is a slightly above average platoon player, the twins seem like they develop these type of players almost at will, so just clearing up a 40 man spot is good enough for me. (Same could be said about 4 or 5 other guys on the 40 man)

Abandoning their fetish with acquiring platoon player types and a manager who gets all tingly at hearing the word "platoon" could fix that.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Larnach is a player type that has value for many teams, especially if someone out there thinks they can unlock something. I have no problem moving on here, but would expect a high-end flier or a Larnach-comparable type player in return at a different position (thinking Catcher2 or middle infielder).

[thelanges5]

Flip Larnach for prospects and Wallner learns 1B in the off season. Make it so!

[Dman]

He is 29 next year so at this point given what he has shown a likely platoon bat.  Only so much you can get for that.  I am still bullish on him, but with Rodriguez likely on the way and other plyers they can plop in left I don't see him as a great fit for the Twins moving forward.

I still feel like his best days are ahead of him, but I could be wrong.  This could be pretty much who he is at this point.  I always have those rose colored glasses on with Twins prospects.

At any rate he isn't a fast runner.  He isn't a great defender and he hasn't shown a ton of home run power.  Whoever wants him would have to feel he is tweak away from getting to more power.

If the Twins could get an offer similar to what the Guards gave up.  I'd think that was probably a fair trade at this point.

[rdehring]

Interesting that you are all in for trading Larnach while keeping Wallner as part of their future plans.  We don't know, but it is possible the Twins view Larnach more favorably than Wallner.  Wallner is equally bad as Larnach on most of the things you mention.  Larnach is getting more hits and has a lot more runs driven in.  Wallner has more raw power, but that power hasn't been seen much of this year.

Agree with their trading one of the two, provided they can get a reasonable return.

[Whitey333]

Like most players on the team Larnach is expendable.  The Twins so called win ing open windows is quickly shutting.  Maybe it's shut now.  Perhaps it hasn't really been open.  Larnach like so many other of our core young players have under-performed , regressed, or perhaps otherwise been poorly developed and/or scouted.  It seems that many of them play full time in minors then come up to a platoon system and wind up playing part time.  I think larnach as well as other players are traceable but probably won't get much in return.

[TwinsDr2021]

27 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Agree with their trading one of the two, provided they can get a reasonable return.

Larnach is Arb 2 next year, he was paid 2.1 this year, unless they can avoid Arb again next year, that is likely to double or close to double? (somebody can correct me if that assumption isn't correct) The Twins who everybody says has a budget is going to pay that much for a slow, bad defensive left handed platoon player? As opposed to Wallner (770k this year) who is pre-arb next year so much, much cheaper. 

IMO getting anything for him is better than paying him or not offering Arb and letting him walk for nothing. 

They are in a similar position that Detroit was in with Castro. paying a part time player or letting him walk, the difference is that Castro was younger, faster, could play premium positions and Larnach is none of those. Larnach is the type of player you trade for when you are in the mix and could use an above average left handed platoon player, not pay in Arb when you are a below .500 team. 

[TNtwins85]

Can we move on from encarnacion-strand? He’s batting .208 with a -.7 WAR. This system can’t develop hitters. As far as Larnach he’s a topper of a bigger trade. Not a centerpiece. Unless you want a 45 rated lotto ticket in A ball in return I suggest we keep him for now. He’s part of a package. Not “the” package.

[P Meyer]

1 - I don't think Larnach has a lot of trade value. 

 

2 - He is under team control for the next two seasons. 

 

3 - He isn't a bad player. If I have to operate under the anchor of Correa's contract, I am not getting rid of this type of player until I have to. Especially when you look at our young player's track record of transitioning to the majors.

[Wedman13]

39 minutes ago, rdehring said:

Interesting that you are all in for trading Larnach while keeping Wallner as part of their future plans.  We don't know, but it is possible the Twins view Larnach more favorably than Wallner.  Wallner is equally bad as Larnach on most of the things you mention.  Larnach is getting more hits and has a lot more runs driven in.  Wallner has more raw power, but that power hasn't been seen much of this year.

Agree with their trading one of the two, provided they can get a reasonable return.

100% agree.  I'd bet some team thinks they can find something in Wallner and value that more.  Neither would return much, but I'd move on Wallner before Larnach.

[D.C Twins]

Nice article Adam!

[TNtwins85]

2 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

100% agree.  I'd bet some team thinks they can find something in Wallner and value that more.  Neither would return much, but I'd move on Wallner before Larnach.

Yeah, Jenkins needs a place to play next year. If Wallner apart of the plans then move him to first base. He’s got a great arm yes. But his routes are terrible and he constantly gets bad jumps on balls and he doesn’t look as bad because he’s got the best CFer in the game next to him. I’m sick of hearing how good the metrics and the numbers say how good he “should” be. To me he looks lost half the time and puts in numerous uncompetitive AB’s a game just to hit a 425ft solo HR every 8-10 games. Larnach adjusts faster in game and can put a competitive AB together. That’s more telling to me than Wallners AB’s. By the way…. These 2 net you zero. 

[Heiny]

I'm starting to get the feeling that this is going to be a total rebuild.  Trading Larnach and Wallner and bringing up Jenkins and E-Rod.  Trading Duran for top prospects.  Trading Bader and Castro for high prospects.  Getting a top C prospect from someone.  Trading Coulombe.  These are all money saving moves.  Keeping Lee, Lewis, Keaschal and our SP's.  Starting over with good young players and oh yeah,  I almost forgot, new manager and coaching staff.

[Patzky]

30 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

Can we move on from encarnacion-strand? He’s batting .208 with a -.7 WAR. This system can’t develop hitters. As far as Larnach he’s a topper of a bigger trade. Not a centerpiece. Unless you want a 45 rated lotto ticket in A ball in return I suggest we keep him for now. He’s part of a package. Not “the” package.

Give em a mix and match; you want Duran and Larnach, you'll pay a little more than Jax and Wallner. You want Joe and Willi? 😆😆If you have to ask it's too much.

[Patzky]

14 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

Yeah, Jenkins needs a place to play next year. If Wallner apart of the plans then move him to first base. He’s got a great arm yes. But his routes are terrible and he constantly gets bad jumps on balls and he doesn’t look as bad because he’s got the best CFer in the game next to him. I’m sick of hearing how good the metrics and the numbers say how good he “should” be. To me he looks lost half the time and puts in numerous uncompetitive AB’s a game just to hit a 425ft solo HR every 8-10 games. Larnach adjusts faster in game and can put a competitive AB together. That’s more telling to me than Wallners AB’s. By the way…. These 2 net you zero. 

Perhaps Matt's bat would do better if he was more comfortable fielding. (1B)

[TwinsDr2021]

3 minutes ago, Heiny said:

I'm starting to get the feeling that this is going to be a total rebuild.  Trading Larnach and Wallner and bringing up Jenkins and E-Rod.  Trading Duran for top prospects.  Trading Bader and Castro for high prospects.  Getting a top C prospect from someone.  Trading Coulombe.  These are all money saving moves.  Keeping Lee, Lewis, Keaschal and our SP's.  Starting over with good young players and oh yeah,  I almost forgot, new manager and coaching staff.

The Twins aren't in total rebuild mode trading Larnach and one back end relief pitcher and FA's to be when you have Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Buxton, CC, Lewis, Jeffers, Lee, that is 3/5 of the rotation (with Festa, Matthews and SWR), and 5 of 9 starters not including Wallner and Keaschall. that is replacing and 1 outfielder (with the Twins top or almost top prospect, Jenkins or Erod), a firstbase man,  DH and retooling the bullpen. 

[TNtwins85]

11 minutes ago, Heiny said:

I'm starting to get the feeling that this is going to be a total rebuild.  Trading Larnach and Wallner and bringing up Jenkins and E-Rod.  Trading Duran for top prospects.  Trading Bader and Castro for high prospects.  Getting a top C prospect from someone.  Trading Coulombe.  These are all money saving moves.  Keeping Lee, Lewis, Keaschal and our SP's.  Starting over with good young players and oh yeah,  I almost forgot, new manager and coaching staff.

They’re not bringing up Jenkins or E-rod. A full rebuild consists of getting rid of everyone and looking to compete in 3-5 years. The timeline might dictate competitiveness is 3-5 years but Falvey doesn’t have that much time. They’re gonna want lower upside closer to the majors guys in order to field a competitive team next year if they go sell mode this week through next.

[TNtwins85]

9 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Perhaps Matt's bat would do better if he was more comfortable fielding. (1B)

Possibly, he makes sense there but the Twins are convinced he’s a RFer. He’s soon to be 28 and has been playing the OF his whole life. I’m wondering when this breakthrough is gonna come. Hitting wise and D wise. Maybe when he turns 30. Who knows.

[P Meyer]

In regards to Wallner, Larnach, and the future young players, I guess I just want to see them compete for spots instead of getting handed spots. Maybe Larnach and Wallner occupy the same space but those two fighting for that spot is what is going to produce the best talent for the Twins. Also, these are guys who can potentially help coach up the younger players since our big league coaches don't seem interested in filling that role.

[Major League Ready]

21 minutes ago, Heiny said:

I'm starting to get the feeling that this is going to be a total rebuild.  Trading Larnach and Wallner and bringing up Jenkins and E-Rod.  Trading Duran for top prospects.  Trading Bader and Castro for high prospects.  Getting a top C prospect from someone.  Trading Coulombe.  These are all money saving moves.  Keeping Lee, Lewis, Keaschal and our SP's.  Starting over with good young players and oh yeah,  I almost forgot, new manager and coaching staff.

My initial thought was he simply is not part of the solution so open a roster spot and bring up Rodriguez if they think he is ready or Martin.   However, if we trade Bader and Castro, we could bring up Rodriguez and Martin and keep Larnach around to see if he improves his value.  This would allow Jenkins and Gonzalez to move up to AAA position Jenkins and Gonzalez to be ready for call ups in 2026.

[TNtwins85]

1 minute ago, P Meyer said:

In regards to Wallner, Larnach, and the future young players, I guess I just want to see them compete for spots instead of getting handed spots. Maybe Larnach and Wallner occupy the same space but those two fighting for that spot is what is going to produce the best talent for the Twins. Also, these are guys who can potentially help coach up the younger players since our big league coaches don't seem interested in filling that role.

Player coaches might be a better way to go. If they teach themselves they might not develop the bad habits the coaches seem to instill.

[Heiny]

6 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

They’re not bringing up Jenkins or E-rod. A full rebuild consists of getting rid of everyone and looking to compete in 3-5 years. The timeline might dictate competitiveness is 3-5 years but Falvey doesn’t have that much time. They’re gonna want lower upside closer to the majors guys in order to field a competitive team next year if they go sell mode this week through next.

Ok, I will agree.  Just getting a little discourged with this team and management/front office.

[Vanimal46]

Posted this in another thread. I am curious if Larnach can be used as bait to reel in another current MLB player? My example was Pittsburgh who can’t develop a position player to save their lives. So maybe they will be interested in an established player like Larnach in exchange for Henry Davis since he is floundering as a former 1st overall pick. 

[TwinsDr2021]

4 minutes ago, P Meyer said:

In regards to Wallner, Larnach, and the future young players, I guess I just want to see them compete for spots instead of getting handed spots. Maybe Larnach and Wallner occupy the same space but those two fighting for that spot is what is going to produce the best talent for the Twins. Also, these are guys who can potentially help coach up the younger players since our big league coaches don't seem interested in filling that role.

What does this even mean? So the young stud prospects have to compete with guys that have already proven they aren't full time players? Isn't that what the prospects are doing in the minors, competing proving they are MLB players? Besides Jenkins if these guys below aren't given/earned a spot before the 27 season they are just another group of older prospects that aren't likely to be difference makers, As for Jenkins he has been a top, top prospect for a while now, the type of prospect that other teams get up and play to see if they are the real deal. Larnach, Martin, Julien, Miranda are now really just in case of emergency type players taking up 40 man spots, which as of today isn't a big deal because there are worse guys on the 40 then them, which is a real bad sign of this FO. 

The Twins top 4 rated prospects are: Per MLB
Jenkins (13th) (AA) turns 21 next February
Erod (41st)(AAA) turns 23 next February
Keaschall(43rd) (MLB/AAA) turns 23 next month
Culpepper (86th) (AA) turns 23 in December

 

[Patzky]

18 minutes ago, TNtwins85 said:

Possibly, he makes sense there but the Twins are convinced he’s a RFer. He’s soon to be 28 and has been playing the OF his whole life. I’m wondering when this breakthrough is gonna come. Hitting wise and D wise. Maybe when he turns 30. Who knows.

Let the Phil's take our RF and try again; Kepler isn't working out. Add Matty to Coulombe and Jax and see what they say

[TwinsDr2021]

9 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

Posted this in another thread. I am curious if Larnach can be used as bait to reel in another current MLB player? My example was Pittsburgh who can’t develop a position player to save their lives. So maybe they will be interested in an established player like Larnach in exchange for Henry Davis since he is floundering as a former 1st overall pick. 

I would much rather them try and pry away Cruz (and move him RF or LF), His is Arb 1 next year. I have no idea what it would take but would a Erod, Wallner, Cory Lewis, Miranda/Julie do it? Is that an overpay or underpay? 

I don't have much interest in unproven or floundering guys over 25, the Twins seem to have enough of them. But then again with Vazquez leaving next year (fingers crossed) I would do that deal, since he would IMO best the best option for the 2nd catcher.