Minnesota Twins, Philadelphia Phillies Could Line Up on Harrison Bader Trade

[Cody Schoenmann]

Following Friday and Saturday nights losses to the Colorado Rockies in Coors Field, where the Minnesota Twins' punchless offense (sans Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, and Willi Castro) got its teeth kicked in by two of MLB's most ineffective starting pitchers in Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela, the dreaded reality surrounding this club became even more apparent: Minnesota should sell at the trade deadline.

Possessing a 13.2% chance of clinching a Wild Card spot, according to FanGraphs, your 2025 Twins are not out of the playoff mix, yet. However, times are becoming increasingly dire, and team decision-makers should strongly consider undergoing a 2017-esque retooling, if not a full-scale overhaul. If team decision-makers were to venture down that similar path, veterans in the final years of their contract could become expendable. Willi Castro, Chris Paddack, and Danny Coulombe are veterans who fit that mold and will generate interest on the trade market later this month. Yet, none (besides Castro) are more intriguing than veteran outfielder Harrison Bader.

Signed to a one-year, $6.5 million contract this past offseason, the 31-year-old outfielder has excelled in Minnesota, hitting .251/.330/.431 with 11 home runs and a 113 wRC+ over 270 plate appearances. The Florida product has performed 13% better than league average at the plate while providing elite outfield defense, primarily patrolling left field. Bader has provided a significant amount of value to Minnesota at the plate and in the field while playing on an expiring contract. That being the case, there is reason to believe Twins decision-makers could net a substantial return package if they elect to trade the 31-year-old at the July 31 trade deadline.

According to The Athletic's MLB trade deadline Big Board 2.0, curated by Tim Britton, Chad Jennings, and Twins beat writer Aaron Gleeman, Bader is the 29th most-desirable trade piece this deadline season, with Cleveland, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay listed as his best fits. With Cleveland listening to trade offers on star relievers Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith, signs point toward Guardians decision-makers selling later this month. Also, since being recalled to Tampa Bay on Jun. 24, Chandler Simpson has impressed, manufacturing a 138 wRC+ over 75 plate appearances while sporting plus range in center field, signaling that the 24-year-old has entrenched himself as the club's starting center fielder of the present and future.

That being the case, Philadelphia seems like the most clear-cut destination for Bader, even when assessing the 27 other MLB teams' outfield depth charts. Right now, Philadelphia's primary outfield construction consists of Nick Castellanos patrolling right field with the left-handed hitting Brandon Marsh occupying center and, tell me if you've heard this name before, Max Kepler receiving most of the opportunities in left. The three of these veterans converge to be incredibly average, with the three of them generating a 94 wRC+ over 949 combined plate appearances.

Kepler, however, has been the least effective of the bunch, manufacturing an 87 wRC+ over 317 plate appearances while sporting spotty corner outfield defense. Johan Rojas mixes in as the club's fourth outfielder, who plays plus defensive center field. However, the right-handed-hitting 24-year-old has yet to produce offensively in his three major league seasons, restricting him to a part-time role. That being the case, Philadelphia would strongly benefit from inserting an above-average right-handed hitting outfielder who could provide plus range at all three outfield positions like Bader.

Again, being on an expiring contract, Minnesota won't be able to net a significant haul for Bader. Still, Minnesota should be able to net more than a low-minors lottery ticket. That being the case, Twins decision-makers would be wise to target a position player who can impact the major league club immediately, while still possessing minor league options. Interestingly, Philadelphia possesses an intriguing position player who perfectly fits that mold in Otto Kemp.

Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2022, Kemp quickly moved through Philadelphia's minor league system, progressing from Low-A Clearwater to Triple-A Lehigh Valley last season. The 25-year-old made his major league debut on Jun. 7 this season and has maintained a spot on the club's 26-man roster since, hitting .250/.324/.348 with 23 hits, six doubles, one home run, a 28.4% strikeout rate, and a 91 wRC+ over 102 plate appearances. The right-handed hitting Phillie also possesses significant flexibility, playing 15 games at first base, nine in left field, and five at third base since joining the club a month-and-a-half ago.

Given that Twins decision-makers swoon over versatility, Kemp could blossom into an actual target for Minnesota if they enter trade discussions with Philadelphia over Bader. Also, considering the fact that Philadelphia has its sights set on winning a championship this season, there is reason to believe President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski would be willing to part ways with a young, controllable asset to acquire Bader's services as the club attempts to fend off the New York Mets for the NL East title and make a deep playoff push.

Despite performing nine percent below league-average at the plate this season, Kemp and his defensive flexibility would provide immediate value to Minnesota, as he could be mixed in the corner outfield, third base, and first base. He also has experience playing second base at Triple-A, meaning he could mix into the keystone position, too. Additionally, with Castro's departure looming, Kemp could assume his super-utility role, as the right-handed hitting 25-year-old can play every position except shortstop, center field, and catcher. Swapping Bader for Kemp could be a savvy one-for-one swap for Minnesota and Philadelphia, especially considering the significantly different competitive stages the two organizations are in.

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[jmlease1]

It'll be interesting to see what kind of market there is for Bader if/when the Twins become sellers. He's filled the role the Twins brought him in for nicely, though I do worry about him getting exposed with too many PAs, but his defense is clearly still first-class. You'd think someone would be interested, especially with his very reasonable contract.

It's notable that Kepler had been so bad; while I had zero interest in retaining him for the Twins, especially at this kind of price, I thought someone would give him a mutli-year deal. Looks like the rest of the league outside of Philly saw a player in decline too that was unlikely to bounce back. Philly has mostly been protecting him against LHP (which he still can't hit) but he's also struggling against RHP and the defense has been surprisingly bad. Sorry, Max.

[jorgenswest]

Kemp seems a reasonable shot. I don’t see super utility though. Castro has a lot of innings at each of 6 positions in his career and plays more than passable defense at each. That isn’t Kemp. Kemp seems more like a right handed Clemens in his defensive flexibility.

[Dman]

Gotta say that is an interesting find.  Those AAA number are scorching hot.  Not sure they would give him up for a rental as he looks like a better solution than Kepler and it sounds like they are grooming him for a Castro type role on the team.  If they were willing I'd do that deal.

[Clear Lake Twinsfan]

I like Otto Kemp as a target from the Phillies.  He had a great run in the Arizona Fall League last year, and as Dman pointed out, he followed that up with impressive numbers at AAA this year, especially against LHP.  I wonder though, with Alec Bohm going on the IL for the Phillies, how willing they will be to trade Kemp.  

[TwinsDr2021]

Just what the Twins need another prospect on the wrong side of age 25 to fill up the 40 man. But I guess why not at least there is a chance for a future here.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

I was all set to say Max Kepler then the article stole my thunder...

Any moves the Twins make like this (Bader, Coulombe, Castro) should be for the best players available, regardless of position. Don't pigeon hole them into taking a "defensively flexible" guy. If the best player is a SS or CF, you take them and adjust later.

[BillyBallLives]

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/17759/harrison-bader

According to Spotrac, the Twins can still lock Bader in for 2026 with a $10 million option.
But it's classified as "mutual". So after a decent year, Bader can still walk if he think he can get at least that? 

Probably best to trade him. He can still walk away if he wants. 

[Doctor Gast]

I like Bader & hate to see him go, but Twins aren't going anywhere so I see the Twins will try to unload his salary & get someone for him. Kemp has had a lot regular ABs to adjust to MLB but it takes a ton more to feel you belong. We really don't need another mediocre LF, 3B or 1Bman but it might be better than nothing.

[NYCTK]

Fun little bonus for Bader, he's due an extra 500K if he's traded if I'm understanding his contract bonuses correctly. 

Thinking he's happy to get traded for that reason. 

[Dman]

1 minute ago, BillyBallLives said:

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/17759/harrison-bader

According to Spotrac, the Twins can still lock Bader in for 2026 with a $10 million option.
But it's classified as "mutual". So after a decent year, Bader can still walk if he think he can get at least that? 

Probably best to trade him. He can still walk away if he wants. 

Yeah and if his OPS is north of .750 to end the year I think he could do better especially with the defense he provides. He certainly could get another two year deal and maybe without an option year.

If his numbers decline to end the year I doubt the Twins pick him up for 10M next year.  So yeah those mutual options are tough as one side usually has a reason to say no.

I really have enjoyed him as a player.  Seems like a great teammate too, but I'm sure he'd be happy to make more money elsewhere.

[Dman]

54 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Just what the Twins need another prospect on the wrong side of age 25 to fill up the 40 man. But I guess why not at least there is a chance for a future here.

Yeah age not withstanding I would prefer an arm. Especially a high upside pen arm since they might move Jax or Duran at some point. They system has a lot of utility players as is so I get your frustration.  Still he would be a good get for a deadline deal.

[thelanges5]

Give Bader an extension. 

[Vanimal46]

I think Cody nailed it on the destination for Bader. He’s got experience in the NL East and he’ll have the ability to be a playoff hero again. 

The Twins need multiple Bader types on the team. I’d love to re-sign him again in FA this winter.

[S Bart]

Bryce harper?

[jkcarew]

Can we assume they wouldn’t be more interested in Clemens?

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I was all set to say Max Kepler then the article stole my thunder...

Kepler's defense, oddly in Left, not Right, field this year is better than last year, and far , far better than Kemp in the outfield.

At that, losing Bader would not be a black hole, but would be dip in the outfield; now the bat of Kepler,  makes him look like a Brother by a different Mother to Wallner, this year; still - Kemp would be paying some thing for nothing.

[twinstalker]

Kemp has an age vs level problem.  Trust me, these don't generally go well.  Even older than his competition (which, without special circumstances, is bad) he strikes out at a 23.2% rate in the minors.  If he were 22 yrs old right now, that might not be a big deal.  He turns 26 in a few weeks.

Generally we've spent most of our lives as stupid fans.  We hear about a guy with an .844 OPS in the minors, and we cross our fingers that the Twins know what they're doing.  But really we can now tell this right off the bat.  The formula is there, for hitters anyway.

Most importantly, he's too old for a prospect.  He can't quite figure out how to make contact.  Even in ABS patrolled AAA, he strikes out at 25% at an old 25 yr old.  He does appear to have some power, but unless we're getting the next Nelson Cruz, which I'm pretty sure he's not, there are red flags.

There are over 4,000 prospects out there.  Very, very few are good enough to really help a major league team eventually.  However, there are a LOT of players who put together a hitting slash line that looks good if we don't know how to look beyond it.  The key is being able to distinguish between good/great slashes that project and those that don't project.  And the ability to do that is knowing what truly is important on the periphery.  Age is huge, age vs level is huge, K-rate vs age vs level is huge and also depends on things like college draftee vs HS draftee vs Int'l signee, not to mention the parks and leagues a prospect plays in.

No to Kemp as anything but a throw-in.

 

[LewFordLives]

17 hours ago, S Bart said:

Bryce harper?

But would that be enough for Bader? Maybe Philly could also toss in a couple second tier prospects to even it out.

[jorgenswest]

They need to take the best offer on Bader. Maybe it will be Kemp. He is doing well enough with the Phillies right now and his expected stats are better than his actuals. I think they would likely offer someone that isn’t going to help the 2025 team.

I don’t think they will be getting a significant near major league ready prospect. They will likely need to buy upside or get a player at a lower level. I would be looking for a buy low minor league starting pitcher that they might try to turn into a bullpen arm or catcher depth. In the Phillies system Eduardo Tait would be a dream. He is 18 and a 45 FV high risk prospect but the Twins didn’t add a catcher in the draft. They need a catcher next year but they also need another in the lower end of the system. I would try to get him and be willing to add to the deal to make it work.

[Jeff K]

On 7/21/2025 at 12:41 PM, jmlease1 said:

It'll be interesting to see what kind of market there is for Bader if/when the Twins become sellers. He's filled the role the Twins brought him in for nicely, though I do worry about him getting exposed with too many PAs, but his defense is clearly still first-class. You'd think someone would be interested, especially with his very reasonable contract.

It's notable that Kepler had been so bad; while I had zero interest in retaining him for the Twins, especially at this kind of price, I thought someone would give him a mutli-year deal. Looks like the rest of the league outside of Philly saw a player in decline too that was unlikely to bounce back. Philly has mostly been protecting him against LHP (which he still can't hit) but he's also struggling against RHP and the defense has been surprisingly bad. Sorry, Max.

Like Polanco before him, it was more than time for Max to go elsewhere.  It is truly a shame the Twins didn't trade him during the previous off-season.

[Cris E]

Bryce Harper has a defense problem: he really can't throw. If we trade away our 4th OF and get back a guy who can't play CF we'll be looking at a 70-92 season and we may as well trade everyone. (But I do like that Harper could be another third catcher, like Mickey G. That's got value.) 

 /S in case it isn't clear that most things I write need a /s 

[Doctor Wu]

On 7/22/2025 at 1:14 AM, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I was all set to say Max Kepler then the article stole my thunder...

Poor Kepler, now batting a robust ,203 with an even .300 OBP. By comparison, another ex-Twin, Rob Refsnyder is batting .270//363 with the Red Sox.