Reds 6, Twins 5: Twins Snatch Fifth Straight Loss from the Jaws of Victory

[TwinsDr2021]

26 minutes ago, Patzky said:

What the fans say about every manager on the inevitable losing streak.

I have been saying it since 2019 that he isn't a good manager. To his credit at times it sure seems like he has gotten better, but also falls back into his old way too often. He seems like the kind of coach that will do much better in his second job. 

[Doctor Gast]

I will continue to advocate for long relief (I have for years). Long relief, I don't mean mop-up, or wrecking someone like Alcala by extending him to 2 innings. I mean, having someone regularly pitch 3 or more competitive innings in close games. With our rotation situation right now, it won't be uncommon for them to pitch 5 innings or less. Regularly pitching 4 or more RPs a game will quickly burnout our BP. Therefore, over-extending our rotation that will result in injuries & fewer quality innings. I have heard that Baldelli is in favor of long relief. Then how come I can't remember him using long relief correctly?

[Eris]

“but Jeffers couldn't corral the pitch”

This is being generous. The pitch was in the middle of the plate. 
 

I don’t have an issue with Wallner diving for the ball in the 6th inning as Buxton was backing up the play. I not sure that Wallner should have been the substitution for Castro in RF when Keirsey is on the bench. It is likely that Castro or Keirsey catch that ball. 
 

WPA. Not sure how this is calculated. But the largest negatives should have gone to Jeffers (failure to ”corral” a pitch that hit his glove without moving it -0.5 WPA), Wallner for failure to catch the line drive -0.2 WPA, and Rocco -0.30 for not substituting Keirsey in RF in a 1 run game  

Poor defense cost the Twins 4 runs last night. Defense matters. 

[Riverbrian]

Baseball seasons are roller coasters so I try not to scream too much on the downs.  I assume an up is coming at some point. 

I'd tend to focus on the roller coaster design. 

I just want to take this time to point out that the Reds sent 6 pre-arb players to the plate last night and probably will be sending 6 to the plate tonight

Friedl, De La Cruz, CES, Benson, Steer and McLain.  Some are having great years and some are having rough years. The 9 players they sent to the plate last night cost them 16.025 million dollars total for the 2025 season. 

The Reds are currently 38-35. The Twins are 36-36. 

 

[Doctor Gast]

Another great game by Buxton. We had enough offense to win the game again but the other aspects of the game failed us. For years, the solution has been getting another bat (bats are usually expensive). That has been our identity. IMO, what wins games is good pitching, good defense, aggressive baserunning, smart baseball, fundamentals & clutch hitting. We won many games on these aspects with less offense than what we have right now. Maybe it's time to change our identity?

[mikelink45]

We are now 500. This is like ground zero. We can drop down to the basement or we can pull it together and rise to the top. Which one will it be? Right now the down elevator seems to be waiting. So what can the twins do to right this listing ship.? The rookie starters don't look ready to sustain success at this point. So another question is whether the veteran starters can actually sustain success because they look shaky recently too. 

I do find that I am confused. By the way, the lineup keeps shuffling. It's almost as if the manager is pulling the names out of a hat. 

And there is a question of whether Correa is going to earn his exorbitant contract or continue to play at the replacement level that we've seen out there.  

Castro has many imperfections but put his bat on the bench instead of the lineup and this team will suffer. However, he is the utility player that should be coming off the bench. So the reality is we're lacking the starters we need and have very poor bench options. 

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

That's like the fourth time I've seen Wallner dive for a ball this year where he had no chance and where he or another outfielder had to go and pick up the ball at the warning track. The angle he took was terrible. That should have been a single. I'd rather see him stop the balls from going all the way to the wall than watch a steady stream of runners round the bases....

Pointless to blame Wallner for his play in the outfield when he is a DH. The Twins have had others outfielders like him .... Josh Willingham for one. When The Plan includes rostering multiple position players who are best at DH the ball will find them. It becomes much more noticeable in close games but it is always there. If Nelson Cruz had been the right or left fielder every day for the Twins he would not have been very popular. The players are putting out the effort. The skills in the field and on the bases are just not available. Hopefully the Twins can improve at the plate but we should acknowledge that opposing pitchers are doing their best to thwart that outcome. 

[tony&rodney]

31 minutes ago, Eris said:

Poor defense cost the Twins 4 runs last night. Defense matters. 

I'm not sure the organization totally embraces this concept given the roster. Teams need offense to score runs to win games and good pitching and defense to constrict opponent offenses. The balance can be tricky. Either the offense improves at scoring runs while the pitching staff recovers their recent slide to keep runs off the scoreboard or the season could go off the rails because the Twins are not designed to play small ball, run the bases adequately, or create outs in the field. I'm hoping the bats come around.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, Peter said:

Another gut wrenching loss! This has to end!!! We need to get full team back healthy!!! I’m not giving up on season like the rest of you as I’ll continue to watch every game no matter what!!! Once a twins fan always a twins fan!!! If you guys hate them so much go cheer for another team and leave this forum!!! Don’t turn this into toxic Facebook!!! We must must must support our twins win or lose no matter what!!! 

I will continue to watch and I will continue to point out the reality that they aren't very good hitters, continue to roster several players that wouldn't be on any other MLB roster, and should change the team culture beginning with the manager.

[Julian Bernick]

Quick question:  Festa was charged with 2 earned runs instead of 3.   One unearned run was the passed ball by Jeffers, right?   That I get.   What was the other unearned run?  I think everyone else who reached was a HBP, walk, hit or fielder's choice.  Does FC get counted as an unearned run sometimes?  The one last night was pretty basic take-the-lead-runner kind of thing if I recall right.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

We are now 500. This is like ground zero. We can drop down to the basement or we can pull it together and rise to the top. Which one will it be? Right now the down elevator seems to be waiting. So what can the twins do to right this listing ship.? The rookie starters don't look ready to sustain success at this point. So another question is whether the veteran starters can actually sustain success because they look shaky recently too. 

I do find that I am confused. By the way, the lineup keeps shuffling. It's almost as if the manager is pulling the names out of a hat. 

And there is a question of whether Correa is going to earn his exorbitant contract or continue to play at the replacement level that we've seen out there.  

Castro has many imperfections but put his bat on the bench instead of the lineup and this team will suffer. However, he is the utility player that should be coming off the bench. So the reality is we're lacking the starters we need and have very poor bench options. 

So the problem condenses down to a lack of talent.

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

They need to burn it from the top down to the ground.  Off the top of my head keep Lee, Wallner, Keaschall, Buxton.

DFA Kiersey and Bride tonight.

They can't sell off their veterans AND release their worst players on the roster. They would be left with nothing. If they sell at the deadline, you will be seeing a lot of Keirsey and Bride in August and September.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Eris said:

“WPA. Not sure how this is calculated. But the largest negatives should have gone to Jeffers (failure to ”corral” a pitch that hit his glove without moving it -0.5 WPA), Wallner for failure to catch the line drive -0.2 WPA, and Rocco -0.30 for not substituting Keirsey in RF in a 1 run game  

Poor defense cost the Twins 4 runs last night. Defense matters. 

WPA completely ignores defense. It only includes the pitcher and the batter in its ledger. That's the main reason why it is a total garbage metric. It's the GWRBI of metrics.

[tony&rodney]

23 minutes ago, Julian Bernick said:

Quick question:  Festa was charged with 2 earned runs instead of 3.   One unearned run was the passed ball by Jeffers, right?   That I get.   What was the other unearned run?  I think everyone else who reached was a HBP, walk, hit or fielder's choice.  Does FC get counted as an unearned run sometimes?  The one last night was pretty basic take-the-lead-runner kind of thing if I recall right.

The passed ball was out number three, inning over. All runs scored after that are unearned. FC is never an unearned run unless an error(s) preceded it which would have ended the inning.

Basically, unearned runs were devised as a system to separate what a pitcher was accountable for or could control versus what they cannot control (i.e. - the fielding). It has been severely compromised in the last quarter century because errors are seldom recorded on mistakes in the field unless it is the most basic of fielding plays. 

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

unearned runs were devised as a system to separate what a pitcher was accountable for or could control versus what they cannot control (i.e. - the fielding). 

Better pitchers are better able to recover from a fielding error and finish out the inning without giving up further runs. ERA was supposed to make comparisons between pitchers easier but RA9 actually does a better job.

[Eris]

36 minutes ago, Julian Bernick said:

Quick question:  Festa was charged with 2 earned runs instead of 3.   One unearned run was the passed ball by Jeffers, right?   That I get.   What was the other unearned run?

Ignore comment as @tony&rodneycomment above. 
 

2 Runs scored after there should have been 3 outs (K + pass ball with Steer reaching 1st would have been the 3rd out). I think both runs scored on the double. But that doesn’t matter, even if 6 runs had scored only 2 would have been earned. 

Edited June 18, 2025 by Eris
Edit to add that a previous TD commenter also replied to the post

[tony&rodney]

Just now, DJL44 said:

Better pitchers are better able to recover from a fielding error and finish out the inning without giving up further runs. ERA was supposed to make comparisons between pitchers easier but RA9 actually does a better job.

While I agree with that thought, it is really tough to blame a pitcher for striking out a guy on a pitch down the middle and not getting an out or watching a well hit ball that should be caught fall in the outfield. Sandy Koufax, Nolan Ryan, and others relied on their defense to convert balls in play into outs and for the catchers to catch the ball. Stuff happens though.

[Linus]

10 hours ago, USAFChief said:

The thing is, it didn't seem like he forgot how many outs.  He didn't react to the play that way 

If he thought that was the third out, he'd have caught the toss from C4, then reacted like...that was the 3rd out. Continued on past the bag out of the runners way, or casually stepped backwards towards the OF to avoid the runner.  Something. Infielders relax once the 3rd out is assured. 

But he didn't. He actually took the ball out of his glove and turned towards first.  Then he just...froze, or something.  It was weird. Like he forgot what action was next lol.

 

Very odd IYAM

 

I felt the same way. I think he looked to first and the runner going to second wasnt down and it spooked him. 

[Blyleven2011]

11 hours ago, DJL44 said:

What the hell, Willi Castro. He forgets how many outs there are WAY too often.

At least he didn't throw the ball into the stands like cubs Milton Bradley did ...

Yes , bad mistake ...

[Aggies7]

Twins haven’t won since trading away alcala to the Red Sox.

He was the glue all along wasn’t he

[Edmond Dantes]

12 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

They need to burn it from the top down to the ground.  Off the top of my head keep Lee, Wallner, Keaschall, Buxton.

DFA Kiersey and Bride tonight.

Add Ryan and Varland to the list; everyone else can go

[Patzky]

Just now, Edmond Dantes said:

Add Ryan and Varland to the list; everyone else can go

You'll laugh but see what Bader wants to hang around. They need an energy guy 

[David Maro]

This is all on the manager who changes who is playing 2nd,3rd,LF and RF everyday. And then to make things worse he changes the lineup everyday as well. If he really wants to make a change how about C4 batting 9th. He is a rally killer right now.

[mikelink45]

4 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

So the problem condenses down to a lack of talent.

I think you got it, but I wanted a longer post!

[TwinsDr2021]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

seeing a lot of Keirsey and Bride in August and September.

Why these guys and not ERod, Culpepper or any other prospect that actually has a MLB future? 

I would assume Lewis, Lee, CC, Jeffers, Buxton aren't going anywhere. Wallner stays, that leaves spots for Keashall, Erod, Culpepper with spots and Larnach if he doesn't go, there is no reason we every have to see a lot of Keirsey and Bride.

 

 

[DJL44]

54 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Why these guys and not ERod, Culpepper or any other prospect that actually has a MLB future? 

I would assume Lewis, Lee, CC, Jeffers, Buxton aren't going anywhere. Wallner stays, that leaves spots for Keashall, Erod, Culpepper with spots and Larnach if he doesn't go, there is no reason we every have to see a lot of Keirsey and Bride.

You're seeing Bride and Keirsey right now. Subtract France, Castro, Bader and Vazquez and you'll see even more of them.

Adding Culpepper to the 40-man roster before he's ready would be dumb. Emmanuel Rodriguez is barely keeping his head above water in AAA. It's far more likely you see McCusker, Gasper, Miranda and Julien as they finish out the season.

[The Great Hambino]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Basically, unearned runs were devised as a system to separate what a pitcher was accountable for or could control versus what they cannot control (i.e. - the fielding). It has been severely compromised in the last quarter century because errors are seldom recorded on mistakes in the field unless it is the most basic of fielding plays. 

It's strange how this grace given in comical amounts when catching the ball, but not when throwing it.  Like you said, only the most basic of fielding mistakes gets called an error, but a 200 ft laser on the money from the outfield that happens to clip the runners foot and skip away is an error every time.  It's enough to make me discount, if not disregard completely, any error-based metric for fielding.

[The Great Hambino]

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

WPA completely ignores defense. It only includes the pitcher and the batter in its ledger. That's the main reason why it is a total garbage metric. It's the GWRBI of metrics.

Isn't GWRBI the GWRBI of metrics?

Seriously though, the ignoring of defense bothers me because they don't have to ignore it.  They have metrics that show the percentage chance a batted ball is converted into an out.  They could use this to allocate the WPA change on a play between pitcher and fielder.  Say the batter's out on a batted ball that's an out 95% of the time, a pretty routine play.  95% of the change can be allocated to the pitcher, and the balance to the fielder.  On the flip side, if the fielder makes an outstanding play on a ball that's an out only 5% of the time, then only 5% gets allocated to the pitcher and most of the credit goes to the fielder.  As it is, all the credit goes to the pitcher either way.

Not sure why they don't do it.  Maybe it isn't a huge difference in large samples, maybe the underlying % chance metrics aren't reliable themselves, maybe no one sees it as worth the time since it's not predictive.  But it would be a better, more interesting statistic if they did.  

[h2oface]

10 hours ago, Peter said:

Another gut wrenching loss! This has to end!!! We need to get full team back healthy!!! I’m not giving up on season like the rest of you as I’ll continue to watch every game no matter what!!! Once a twins fan always a twins fan!!! If you guys hate them so much go cheer for another team and leave this forum!!! Don’t turn this into toxic Facebook!!! We must must must support our twins win or lose no matter what!!! 

Really? You give up on them at least, at least ONCE A GAME! Do you even know what you post? Nice to see this caught you in a resonable rendition.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

It's strange how this grace given in comical amounts when catching the ball, but not when throwing it.  Like you said, only the most basic of fielding mistakes gets called an error, but a 200 ft laser on the money from the outfield that happens to clip the runners foot and skip away is an error every time.  It's enough to make me discount, if not disregard completely, any error-based metric for fielding.

Agree. It is almost as if the official scorers are not familiar with the game .... and yet they are and know the game. I am perplexed why and how these errors are and are not handed out in the modern game.