Aaron Sabato Is Forcing the Twins to Take Another Look

[Matthew Taylor]

Aaron Sabato’s journey through the Twins organization has been a winding one, filled with hype, frustration, and a whole lot of strikeouts.

He was selected by the Twins with the 27th overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, a bat-first first baseman from the University of North Carolina who had just set the Tar Heels' freshman record with 18 home runs in 2019. Upon being drafted, Baseball America's scouting report made it clear what the Twins were getting: “Sabato’s signature trait is his massive power potential. He has near top-of-the-scale raw power and can leave any ballpark from foul pole to foul pole, thanks to his brute natural strength and massive wrists and forearms.”

But selecting a college hitter who was already limited to first base defensively came with one big caveat. The bat had to play. And for most of his professional career, it simply hasn’t.

Since entering the Twins system, Sabato has posted declining OPS figures in each season: .783, .774, .759, and .645. That last number came in 2023, his worst season yet. Not only were his numbers regressing, but his advancement through the system stalled out as well. He made his Double-A debut in 2022 and hasn’t moved up since. Even more concerning, he has struck out over 30 percent of the time in every season. The swing-and-miss issues that plagued him in college only got worse against pro pitching.

As a result, Sabato faded from the radar. He wasn't ranked among Aaron Gleeman’s top 40 Twins prospects heading into the year. He’s been eligible for the Rule 5 Draft twice with zero interest. Any hope of Sabato making an impact seemed to be fading away.

Until this season.

Now 26 years old and in his fourth year with the Double-A Wind Surge, Sabato is having by far the best season of his career. Through 37 games in double-A, he's slashing .311/.409/.568 with a .977 OPS, eight home runs, ten doubles, and 25 RBI. He’s finally doing what he was drafted to do, crush the baseball.

 

He’s also punishing left-handed pitching. Sabato owns a ridiculous 1.157 OPS against southpaws, with half of his eight home runs coming against them. That’s a stark contrast from last year, when he posted a .384 OPS against lefties in 95 plate appearances, and a significant improvement from his .544 OPS against them in 2022.

But perhaps the most encouraging sign of growth is his improved plate discipline. For the first time in his career, Sabato has brought his strikeout rate below 30 percent. His 25.6 percent K-rate this year is still high, but it is a significant and meaningful drop. For a power hitter like Sabato, 25 percent is manageable. Thirty percent is not. That change alone gives him a fighting chance.

Realistically, the odds of Sabato making it to the big leagues remain slim. Not many players with his profile, after struggling this long, break through in their late 20s. But it’s not impossible. Sabato still has first-round power and the kind of right-handed pop that can be valuable off a bench or in a platoon.

What he deserves now is a chance. A promotion to Triple-A St. Paul is on the table. He’s more than proven himself in Wichita, and the Twins could use more right-handed thump, especially against lefties. Maybe Sabato isn’t the guy, but maybe, just maybe, he’s got one more chapter to write. At the very least, he’s earned the opportunity. Give Sabato some run in St. Paul and see what happens. I’ll admit I’m biased. I’ve owned property on Sabato Island for a while now. It’s been lonely out here, but lately, the market's picking up and my investment’s finally showing signs of life, just like Sabato himself.

What do you think? Is Aaron Sabato worth a look in St. Paul? Could he still become a contributor in Minnesota? Let us know in the comments below.

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[AceWrigley]

He looks more athletic this season. Maybe the Sabato Express keeps rolling.

[dxpavelka]

There could be worse things than a highly drafted highly touted prospect who plays a position of need for a team that needs power hitting finally getting it right even at age 26,

[D.C Twins]

No....

[Major League Ready]

He played his first game for the Saints last night so that question has already been answered.  I hated the pick when it was made and I never liked him as a prospect.  I would be absolutely thrilled to be dead wrong if he was a late bloomer or found something or whatever and became a productive major leaguer.  

I would be interested to know what they did with him.  It sounds like his plate discipline has improved but is that enough to create this break-out?  Not trying to pull everything, maybe?  IDK but I would love to see him interviewed on his emergence.

It would be nice to have a guy even in a bench role that mashes LHP.

[thelanges5]

The answer is a resounding, let’s wait and see. Current trajectory would suggest that the Twins could be sellers by the trade deadline. Sell as high as possible on 🇫🇷 and give Sabato a little runway in the second half. If he can hit then maybe he stays and if not, we start teaching Wallner or Larnach first base.

[Blyleven2011]

4 seasons stalled in AA is a long time and it's hard to believe he is only 26 years old ...

Let's see what he does for the next month or so and see if his numbers remain close to the same as AA ...

 

[Danchat]

Yeah, I have a hard time believing that a guy who needed 930 PAs at AA will figure out AAA and become a MLB contributor within a reasonable amount of time. No harm in trying, but it seems like most of our power-only prospects sputter out at this point.

[jorgenswest]

I recall Bob Hamelin finally getting to the majors after several seasons and many at bats in four AAA seasons. He was Rookie of the Year for the Royals as a DH/1B in 1994. That was the highlight of his career. Maybe the Twins can get a helpful season or two from Sabato.

[Elvis777]

I believe we are seeing what Sabato potential is.   He’s had few broken hands and other injury setbacks within last few seasons.  I feel that was a huge part of the inconsistency.   Staying on field, healthy having good at bats is showing results.  Definitely looks different.  Credit to him and the perseverance.   

[Rosterman]

At the least, he can increase hius trade stock. The Twins will now have to protect him. Can he be a defensive plus for the team, at best. Offer some needed power? Or would the Twins be better making McCusker a first baseman.

So, is using Julien or Miranda at first base out of the question now?

[DocBauer]

I wasn't crazy about the pick when they made it, but they were picking late, it was a weird draft of limited knowledge due to the nature of 2020 and the loss or near loss of all amateur seasons. He was a bat only at 1B, but he could hit, get OB, and he could MASH the ball. 

To say hes been a disappointment would be an understatement. And hes disappeared from prospect lists. I'd really like to know what changed this past offseason? Is it better health and conditioning? Did he change his approach and or stance? Did he watch a ton of film and realize he'd been getting himself out and just mentally change that portion of his approach?

He hasn't hit like this since his 1st two years in college, when the Twins drafted him. He just turned 26yo a week ago, and suddenly he's at AAA. There's still a pretty good chance he flames out. But wouldn't it be interesting if the change was for real and he's suddenly a viable ML hitter by late this season or next?

I'm sure not betting on it, but it would be a hell of a story.

[mikelink45]

I would take McCusker

[tony&rodney]

No reason not to wish all the best for Aaron Sabato but he didn't look too good tonight. The swing looked slow and pull happy. Still a good comeback story is always fun to watch.

[twinstalker]

Even at 25% his K rate is far too high to do anything in the majors,  K rate is what you need to know, adjusted for age vs level.  There's nothing there. 26 in his fourth year at AA, that 25% is more like a normal prospect's 33%.  That could well be 40%+ in MLB with contact mostly partial and weak.  And maybe a couple of homers at first that don't mean anything other than pitchers feeding him some meatballs until they learn.

[D.C Twins]

1 hour ago, twinstalker said:

Even at 25% his K rate is far too high to do anything in the majors,  K rate is what you need to know, adjusted for age vs level.  There's nothing there. 26 in his fourth year at AA, that 25% is more like a normal prospect's 33%.  That could well be 40%+ in MLB with contact mostly partial and weak.  And maybe a couple of homers at first that don't mean anything other than pitchers feeding him some meatballs until they learn.

yup

[Jeff K]

14 hours ago, Rosterman said:

At the least, he can increase hius trade stock. The Twins will now have to protect him. Can he be a defensive plus for the team, at best. Offer some needed power? Or would the Twins be better making McCusker a first baseman.

So, is using Julien or Miranda at first base out of the question now?

I just don't see Miranda, and especially Julien, in the picture for the majors.  I do feel the Twins should move McCusker to first base this season and perhaps he can help next year.

[nclahammer]

You gotta have dreams, that's what the minor leagues are all about...good luck to the kid.

[tony&rodney]

Evaluations are ongoing for baseball players. It is a performance based business that only allows space for those who signed big bonuses or have either large contracts (above $4M) long term contracts.

A suggestion would be to watch these guys in the minor leagues. You will see that Julien is way above Miranda currently but not in favor himself. Players who seek to play in the majors live fluid lives; it ain't easy.

[Doctor Gast]

IMO, it's interesting that all those years of stressing HRs, Sabato didn't amount to much. Now that they aren't, he's starting to hit. 

Baldelli likes his 1Bmen to have a lot of experience at 1B, because it's one of the most difficult positions to play (?). 6 yrs. now, Sabato should be pretty darn good.

At 26 & just starting AAA, many TD members won't give him much of a chance but I would. IMO, because Miranda has more experience at the MLB & he can hit RHPs, he should have the lion's share of opportunity at 1B.

Like any stat, you have some that dominate that stat, some who are bad & some who fluctuates. As far as France is concerned, he has been pretty steady being clutch throughout his career.

[dxpavelka]

On 6/14/2025 at 12:32 PM, thelanges5 said:

The answer is a resounding, let’s wait and see. Current trajectory would suggest that the Twins could be sellers by the trade deadline. Sell as high as possible on 🇫🇷 and give Sabato a little runway in the second half. If he can hit then maybe he stays and if not, we start teaching Wallner or Larnach first base.

Seems like there's been talk of teaching Wallner or Larnach to play 1B all season.  Also seems like there's been very little actual teaching Wallner or Larnach to play 1B.  Honestly I'd rather see Sabato EARN and get a shot and either become the player they envisioned when they drafted him or play well enough to hold the spot and have someone like Billy Amick rise thru the system quickly and become the 1B.  Small sample size but doing quite well this year.  The problem with moving Larnach or Wallner becomes the amount of time we end up seeing a Castro or Keirsey or Gasper out there.

[mickster]

On 6/14/2025 at 7:28 PM, Rosterman said:

At the least, he can increase hius trade stock. The Twins will now have to protect him. Can he be a defensive plus for the team, at best. Offer some needed power? Or would the Twins be better making McCusker a first baseman.

So, is using Julien or Miranda at first base out of the question now?

Julien and Miranda are not part of the future anymore