Trade Chris Paddack Now!

[Trov]

After watching yesterdays game and watching Paddack have a great overall game, it got me thinking that his value has to be near the highest it has been since we traded for him.  The Twins should look to find a team starved of pitching and willing to take a swing for him this year.  Get your best deal possible and be happy.  Some will say, but you cannot have too much pitching and he is having a good year, by far his best with the Twins and best since his rookie year. Keep in mind it is a contract year, most players have boost in those years.  

His numbers have been good, not cy young or anything.  However, I think he is set for some great regression and if there is team willing to hope he is not we need to pounce.  His record is not great, but that is due to a lack of run support, yesterday he got 0 runs while out there.  He pitched 8 innings, would have been complete game 1-0 loss had we not tied it in 9th.  The one run was a pitch out of the strike zone for a HR from a guy that right now is locked in hitting all pitches for HR it seems.  However, Paddack K-rate is way down, 6.9 per 9. Walks at all time high, 2.8 per 9. His hits per 9 are way down from career average, and HR are just below career average. 

I have not done a deep dive into why his hits per 9 are so much lower, outside of his rookie year, he is a full 2 hits per 9 less from career average. This is not the real Paddack, but there has to be teams out there willing to jump at him for this year hoping this is an outlier season and ride him to the finish line as a good 4th or 5th guy. Right now the way he is pitching he slots into our 4th best pitcher. But is he that much better than Festa, SWR, or Matthews, most likely no. There has to be a team facing injuries or lack of back of rotation that they will give up value for Paddack based on his current run.  

I would be calling any team fighting for playoffs that need starter and see what they would give up for Paddack right now.  Strike while his value is high. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

This was always the version of Paddack that we wanted.  The contract is finally paying off, now is not the time to trade him.  Lets say he has a great year,  we can offer him a QO if we wish,  he can accept or deny and then we have the possibility at draft compensation.  Currently teams can gain significant value through the players who achieve bigger contracts like Sonny Gray, and or drafted players getting rooking of the year or MVP.  All are difficult options, but if you can hit, you get another high end draft pick.   

My preference is let Paddack pitch,  we may end up with much more than we could have reasonably expected.  

[jctwins]

It's a good thing no one else in the league can see how unpredictable he's been prior to this one game.

[tony&rodney]

All thoughts about trading any player needs to accompanied by specific names one might think available from another team. The Twins do not need mid level prospects or failing former stars. Teams are not likely to trade players with real offensive value either. Will any team actually trade a top prospect? Would the Twins actually put said top prospect in the lineup? Looking around baseball it seems that it would be very difficult to pry away a strong player without sending off a huge package of players. The Twins have held their prospects for the most part and also their players on expiring contracts. I'm all ears on proposals.

[LambchoP]

If we traded Paddack his rotation spot would most likely go to Festa. With him and Zebby in our rotation that would mean a lot of short 4-5 inning starts which would really tax our bullpen which is already getting overworked. Maybe if they put SWR in the pen as a long reliever to cover short starts this could work. I wouldn't give up good pitching unless we got a stud bat, which nobody is going to want to give up for Paddack alone. We could use a 1/3 baseman type or a catcher though.....

[amjgt]

45 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

This was always the version of Paddack that we wanted.  The contract is finally paying off, now is not the time to trade him.  Lets say he has a great year,  we can offer him a QO if we wish,  he can accept or deny and then we have the possibility at draft compensation.  Currently teams can gain significant value through the players who achieve bigger contracts like Sonny Gray, and or drafted players getting rooking of the year or MVP.  All are difficult options, but if you can hit, you get another high end draft pick.   

My preference is let Paddack pitch,  we may end up with much more than we could have reasonably expected.  

Looking at who turned down QOs last season, it's not crazy to think that if Paddack maintains anything even close this level of production that we could offer (and he would turn down) a qualifying offer. The three closest comps from last offseason are:

Severino - Age 31. Coming off of a good, not great season with the Mets after a half decade of injury issues. 3yrs/67M from Athletics

Pivetta - Age 32. Coming off a string 4.xx ERA seasons with Boston, as a pretty reliable innings eater (he's been really good this season) - 4yrs/55M from Padres

Manaea - Age 33. Similar 2024 season to Severino with the Mets, with less injury history and better peripherals. 3yr/75M from Mets. 

Paddack will be 30 for all of next season. Similar injury history to Severino, but probably not quite as bad (somehow). If he could keep his ERA around where it's at right now and keep around that strikeout per inning he's been flirting with for these 10 starts, then there's no reason why he wouldn't expect to get 3/60 from someone. 

[Twodogs]

I think when you have a team and a clubhouse that is currently winning, you don't break pieces off hoping that you'll still have a quality clubhouse and hoping that you continue to win.  I mean had the Twins continued down the path that they were on in their first couple of weeks then no one cares about the clubhouse or keeping the guys together. 

 

I know everyone else looks at these things like fantasy managers and with trade values and analytics.  But not so much different than not changing your socks or whatever while you are on a hitting streak I don't think you mess with the pitching success of the rotation while the Twins are in playoff contention. 

 

As the weeks go forward these things can change.  I mean a guy who hits .450 one month and then hits .150 the next might as well change his socks while in a slump.  But you just don't mess with winning.  If they are winning you keep doing what's winning.  

 

Not saying that you are wrong about Paddock's value and all.  I just don't think you treat this like a fantasy team and make trades while things are going well.  JMO

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

16 minutes ago, amjgt said:

Looking at who turned down QOs last season, it's not crazy to think that if Paddack maintains anything even close this level of production that we could offer (and he would turn down) a qualifying offer. The three closest comps from last offseason are:

Severino - Age 31. Coming off of a good, not great season with the Mets after a half decade of injury issues. 3yrs/67M from Athletics

Pivetta - Age 32. Coming off a string 4.xx ERA seasons with Boston, as a pretty reliable innings eater (he's been really good this season) - 4yrs/55M from Padres

Manaea - Age 33. Similar 2024 season to Severino with the Mets, with less injury history and better peripherals. 3yr/75M from Mets. 

Paddack will be 30 for all of next season. Similar injury history to Severino, but probably not quite as bad (somehow). If he could keep his ERA around where it's at right now and keep around that strikeout per inning he's been flirting with for these 10 starts, then there's no reason why he wouldn't expect to get 3/60 from someone. 

Pitching is crazy expensive anymore.  The recent recollection where it backfired was Martin Perez with Texas.  he was looking for the big payday but took the Qualifying offer.  Based off the pitching contracts from last year,  if they think Paddacks health and performance can be a long term solution,  I think he could easily get 50 million over 3 years.  

[amjgt]

I don't bring up the QO to necessarily debate the pros and cons of offering it. There so much season left and things will obviously be much clearer in a few months, but IF we are going to trade Paddack, then the value of a potential QO has to be considered. 

That might have sounded crazy 3 weeks ago and it still might be a little crazy, but history shows us that guys with ERAs that start with "3" and are around 30, can get big money in free agency. And even if we offer it and he accepts it, we'd almost certainly be able to trade him

[Trov]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

All thoughts about trading any player needs to accompanied by specific names one might think available from another team. The Twins do not need mid level prospects or failing former stars. Teams are not likely to trade players with real offensive value either. Will any team actually trade a top prospect? Would the Twins actually put said top prospect in the lineup? Looking around baseball it seems that it would be very difficult to pry away a strong player without sending off a huge package of players. The Twins have held their prospects for the most part and also their players on expiring contracts. I'm all ears on proposals.

I have no names to through out because I have no clue what the other teams thought of value of Paddack right now is.  If the Twins want to keep staying relevant they need to strike when value is highest.  There may be very little value from other teams out there, and if there is not, then okay lets hold onto him and hope he has a career year and let him walk. However, there has to be a team out there willing to pay something of decent value.

[Trov]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

If we traded Paddack his rotation spot would most likely go to Festa. With him and Zebby in our rotation that would mean a lot of short 4-5 inning starts which would really tax our bullpen which is already getting overworked. Maybe if they put SWR in the pen as a long reliever to cover short starts this could work. I wouldn't give up good pitching unless we got a stud bat, which nobody is going to want to give up for Paddack alone. We could use a 1/3 baseman type or a catcher though.....

Paddack generally only goes 5 innings as well.  This year he has 3 starts more than 5.1 innings.  Most starts are 5 innings. Not saying his replacement would be pitching as many innings but it is not like Paddack is some workhorse. 

[Mike Sixel]

No. Just. No. 

[DJL44]

It is difficult to see how Paddack gets traded in a deadline deal. There aren't many teams looking for pitching who would want to sell offense or a young catcher to get it. The best fit I see is the Cubs and the Twins would certainly ask for Moises Ballesteros in return.

[jorgenswest]

Cubs need starting pitching. They have a back up catcher in Miguel Amaya that would help this year. Both have provided their teams 0.9 WAR this year. Starting pitching is a premium but control of Amaya makes him a longer term value. Pitching is expensive. My price would be someone ready to help this year on the offensive side that has control beyond this year.  I have no interest in prospects and I am not motivated to trade Paddack. I would listen to an offer like Amaya. Too much to pay? Fine. Keep Paddack.

[amjgt]

5 hours ago, Trov said:

Paddack generally only goes 5 innings as well.  This year he has 3 starts more than 5.1 innings.  Most starts are 5 innings. Not saying his replacement would be pitching as many innings but it is not like Paddack is some workhorse. 

That's an odd thing to say about someone who just went 8ip, threw 110 pitches, and leads the team in innings pitched this season.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

If Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddack stay healthy and yes, it is a big IF as it with every team, the Twins could do some damage. They would be foolish to even think about trading him.

[stringer bell]

After waiting for Paddack to be healthy and stretched out for three years, he is finally there and he's been head and shoulders more effective than he has been since 2019. Will he regress? Yes, probably, but the stuff has been really good for his last 4-5 starts. I'm more worried that his twice repaired elbow or shoulder won't hold up, but he is providing real value as a healthy member of the rotation. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Trading Paddack might be the right call when the deadline comes and the Twins still need offense.

That day is not today, there is a reason why no real trades have happened yet.

[Muppet]

It would be an easier idea to stomach if the Twins' offence wasn't so terrible. I don't think any bat they might get in return would add much more than the bat that it would replace. Paddack isn't good enough to trade for that offensive spark that can carry the team. 

We're about to see the real value of Paddack if Lopez goes down. Suddenly an elite starting lineup has 2 AAAA starters and 3 quality starters instead of 1 AAAA and 4 quality arms. That's a pretty big difference... especially when your team can't hit. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

37 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Trading Paddack might be the right call when the deadline comes and the Twins still need offense.

That day is not today, there is a reason why no real trades have happened yet.

Correct, and yet I have zero faith that The Sheriff’s arm will remain intact through the month of June.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Correct, and yet I have zero faith that The Sheriff’s arm will remain intact through the month of June.

Yep and yep. You get the performance out of him when you can and if he's still healthy a month from now, maybe he's a viable trade candidate.

[SS MagicMark]

Got to hang on to him at least until Pablo returns from the IL.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

12 hours ago, SS MagicMark said:

Got to hang on to him at least until Pablo returns from the IL.

Two to three months. Paddack stays.

[East Coast Twin]

On 6/5/2025 at 2:15 AM, VivaBomboRivera! said:

Two to three months. Paddack stays.

Zebby Matthews to IL now too.  This discussion didn't age well over the past six days.