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Posted
Image courtesy of © Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images

After a challenging start to the 2025 season, the Minnesota Twins have optioned right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson to Triple-A St. Paul. This move follows a difficult outing against the Baltimore Orioles, wherein he allowed six runs on eight hits over four innings. The demotion allows Woods Richardson to address several areas that have contributed to his struggles at the major-league level.

In eight appearances (seven starts) this season, Woods Richardson posted a 5.02 ERA (83 ERA+) and a 1.54 WHIP over 37 2/3 innings pitched. Opponents are batting .295/.361/.503 against him, with left-handed hitters finding even more success: they own a .957 OPS.

Advanced metrics from Baseball Savant paint an even grimmer picture. His expected slugging percentage (xSLG) stands at .556, placing him in the bottom 5% of the league. Similarly, his expected weighted on-base average on contact (xwOBACON) is .455 (bottom 7%), and his expected ERA (xERA) is 5.87 (bottom 9%). The Twins won five of his eight appearances, but his overall metrics were hard to ignore at this juncture. 

Last year, he found early success with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 82 innings in the season’s first half. The young rookie saved the Twins rotation, but down the stretch, Woods Richardson showed some flaws. He struggled in the second half, as he surpassed his innings total from previous seasons. Still, there was hope for the young pitcher to take another step forward in 2025, especially since he is just 24 years old. As he heads to Triple A, there are some clear focus areas for him.

1. Fastball Effectiveness
Woods Richardson's four-seam fastball has seen an uptick in velocity over the last two seasons, averaging 93.1 mph in 2025. However, this increase hasn't translated to improved results. Hitters are making harder contact, with their average exit velocity against the heater rising from 90.5 to 92.3 mph. The pitch's run value has declined from +8 last season to -2 in 2025.

At Triple-A, Woods Richardson should focus on refining his fastball command and exploring adjustments to its movement profile to reduce hard contact.

2. Slider Performance
His slider, previously a reliable secondary offering, has also regressed. Batters have increased their slugging percentage against this pitch by .165 (.478 SLG this year vs. .313 in 2025). He’s also throwing the pitch less regularly, with a drop in usage of roughly 5 percentage points. It makes sense not to throw a pitch as much if it's not working as well, but it remains true that the pitch's effectiveness has diminished—contributing to the overall decline in his arsenal's performance.

In the minors, he can work on enhancing the slider's sharpness and deception by tweaking his grip or release point.

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3. Batted Ball Profile
Opposing hitters are pulling the ball in the air at a 27.8% rate against Woods Richardson, 11.2% higher than the MLB average. This tendency points to predictable pitch patterns and locations that hitters can exploit. Batters are hunting for pitches where they can pull the ball with authority, and they have been able to exploit that strategy so far in 2025. 

By varying pitch locations and mixing pitch types more effectively, he can work to disrupt hitters' timing and reduce the frequency of pulled fly balls.

4. Getting Ahead in the Count
Woods Richardson's success is significantly influenced by his ability to get ahead in the count. In 2024, he got the jump on hitters with a 65.7 first-pitch strike%, but that total has dropped by 8% this year. Batters have posted a staggering 1.135 OPS against him when he falls behind. Conversely, he has limited hitters to a .655 OPS when he's ahead.

At Triple-A, focusing on first-pitch strikes and maintaining an aggressive approach early in counts will be crucial for his development.

The demotion to Triple A isn't merely a setback, but an opportunity for Woods Richardson to make necessary adjustments away from the pressures of the major leagues. By focusing on refining his fastball and slider, altering his batted ball profile, and getting ahead in counts, he can work toward returning to the Twins' rotation as a more effective pitcher. This is certainly a tough break for Woods Richardson. However, the Twins will need him again in 2025. The hope is that he can address these issues and re-establish himself as a valuable asset for the future.


Which area is most important for Woods Richardson to improve at Triple-A? Leave a comment and start the discussion.


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Posted

#4 is the biggest piece for me that has to be better if he wants to be a rotation pitcher. SWR throws way to many pitches because hes behind in the count too much. Get strike 1 quickly, throw any of 3 pitches to get that strike and then outs will come more easily and more quickly. No one expects 21-24 outs from him but 15-18 has to be the norm. Get strike 1 and go from there

Posted

Interesting analysis of what Woods-Richardson needs to do in order to get called back up. He's never been a starter that has gone more than five innings or so. I wonder if the Twins still think of him as a starter, or will he eventually transition to the bullpen? 

Verified Member
Posted

I honestly would say if you address number 1 then 3 and 4 will fix themselves.  I would not know if the increase in velo is leading to less control, it would make some sense.  If you are not a super fast guy, having great control is better.  Mixing up locations, and keeping the hitters guessing helps.  However, if you are falling behind, missing your spots you need to start grooving pitches allowing the hitters to tee off. 

Verified Member
Posted
59 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Feels like we're back to not much return for the best starting pitcher we had developed in a generation.

Being sent down is not the end of a career.  Sure, the returns have not been great, but assuming we would not have  resigned Berrios, we would not have got anything in return anyways.  Also, he has not been amazing or anything.  He had a terrible 2022. His last 2 years were good but not ace level or anything.  Last year Berrios was better than SWR, but not by a ton.  SWR still young, could continue to grow.  

Could we have looked to move Berrios somewhere else and got a better deal, most likely, but do not act like we gave up a HOF pitcher or anything.

Posted
40 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Interesting analysis of what Woods-Richardson needs to do in order to get called back up. He's never been a starter that has gone more than five innings or so. I wonder if the Twins still think of him as a starter, or will he eventually transition to the bullpen? 

I would be curious if his stuff would play up at all in a relief role. Not having any single "great" pitch means he really has to hit all four of these categories to be serviceable.

I'd like to see him work in a variety of roles both for this season for the Twins and his development. He's almost in the Dobnak role for me now.

It's worth seeing what he could cut loose in one inning. He needs 96-97 or channel Greg Maddox. Neither seems likely.

Posted

SWR = way to many pitches because he gives up way to much contact.  Foul ball after foul ball until the hitter gets his pitch to hit.  The guy can't induce weak fair ball contact or miss a bat.

Posted

Has to improve on pitch location,goes 3-2 on to many hitters. That results in his pitch count climbing way before the 5th inning. Watching Lopez his last couple of starts he has had the same problem. But he has the ability to come back with a inning or two with 10 pitches or less. And SWR has not been able to do the same. I think you will see the same problem with Festa and or Zebby. It takes a bit of an attitude to go after the hitters.

Verified Member
Posted

While SWR saved the rotation last year, Paddack has looked like the pitcher we dreamed of his last 3-4 outings! His mix if pitches and control has been exceptional! Let's hope SWR can dial.some of that in as well!

If the team can stay above water until July and get Lewis, Wallner & Keashall healthy & productive - they could make a deep run yet this year.

Posted
3 hours ago, Coach Wheels said:

#4 is the biggest piece for me that has to be better if he wants to be a rotation pitcher. SWR throws way to many pitches because hes behind in the count too much. Get strike 1 quickly, throw any of 3 pitches to get that strike and then outs will come more easily and more quickly. No one expects 21-24 outs from him but 15-18 has to be the norm. Get strike 1 and go from there

Completely agree. In short he simply doesn't throw enough strikes.

Posted

Honestly I don't see much + in any of his pitches. He gets behind constantly and then it's chuck and duck. Right now I'd put Mathews, Festa and Morris ahead of him for the #5 spot. He had a couple of nice months in 2024, But the need to improve on the 4 items mentioned, and the challenge to do so, doesn't bode well for a promising future.

 

Posted

He's still young. If he can find a way to be more efficient and get deeper into games he could still be a decent back end starter. If he doesn't make those adjustments, maybe his future is in the pen as a multi inning reliever. Maybe trading him would be a way to get some offensive help, especially in the infield where the Twins are suddenly very thin. I'd make sure we get the right return though. Other than Zebby and Festa our AAA pitching has not looked good. Our depth may not be as good as we hoped.

Posted
58 minutes ago, KBJ1 said:

While SWR saved the rotation last year...

I've seen this phrase continue after the Twins missed the playoffs last year, and it's confused me a little. What do people think Sim saved last year? If he hadn't flopped hard in the 2nd half and the Twins had made the playoffs, his contributions would have been meritorious. I don't see what he actually saved last year versus the Twins making Dobnak or Boushley the 5th starter. The Twins don't make the playoffs either way. Dobnak as a starter is probably 0.0 WAR vs. SWR's 1.8 WAR. So the Twins win 2 games more with Sim instead of Dobnak in the rotation. I think people are still in the mindset of the results Sim was getting in his first few starts when all the balls were bouncing his way, and it looked like Woods-Richardson was going to save the rotation by helping the Twins make the playoffs. He didn't.

Posted
3 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

In summary, he needs to improve.

Add #5 to the article:
Learn to incorporate those muscular legs/thighs rather than arm strength/whip alone.

Posted

To me, Items 1-4 are all covered by better COMMAND of his pitches……..both in the zone and just off the plate.

Personally, I don’t know what the stats are, but his curveball should be thrown about 15-20% of the time ………. I’m assuming it is at 10% or less now. It’s a completely different look than his other pitches and he can throw it for strikes. Speed declines to around 76Mph so it’s tough to time up for a hitter and it has a nice 12 o’clock to 6 o’clock break. His slider is the key to him getting outs and more swing and miss. He’ll be OK - 82 innings to start last year at 3.51 ERA is too much of a sample to be as bad as he’s been at times in ‘25.

Posted
3 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

In summary, he needs to improve.

He and I have a lot in common in having four areas to improve before being able to contribute. For me it's 1) fastball; 2) curve ball; 3) changeup; and 4) slider. Oh, and my defense could use some help. 

Posted
Quote

with left-handed hitters finding even more success: they own a .957 OPS.

That is a good place to start. He needs find a way to pitch that can reduce that split by >100 points. Usually, that means developing a changeup. The article mentions his fastball (24th percentile) and breaking (26th percentile) pitches, but his offspeed run value (2nd percentile) actually ranks the least effective on statcast. If he had a 25th percentile changeup he'd be an adequate innings-eating starter.

Posted
10 hours ago, Trov said:

Being sent down is not the end of a career.  Sure, the returns have not been great, but assuming we would not have  resigned Berrios, we would not have got anything in return anyways.  Also, he has not been amazing or anything.  He had a terrible 2022. His last 2 years were good but not ace level or anything.  Last year Berrios was better than SWR, but not by a ton.  SWR still young, could continue to grow.  

Could we have looked to move Berrios somewhere else and got a better deal, most likely, but do not act like we gave up a HOF pitcher or anything.

Always amazed that every Twins fan "assumes" we wouldn't have signed Berrios.  Could easily have afforded the deal he signed in Toronto.  But, sure, we're four years out and the return is still toiling away in AAA, but, yeah, there gonna hit.  Absolutely.  or not

 

Posted
9 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Always amazed that every Twins fan "assumes" we wouldn't have signed Berrios.  Could easily have afforded the deal he signed in Toronto.  But, sure, we're four years out and the return is still toiling away in AAA, but, yeah, there gonna hit.  Absolutely.  or not

 

At the time it seemed Berrios wanted to test the waters and wasn't that interested in signing with the Twins. Whereas players like Buxton and Pablo made it very clear they wanted to be here. When Berrios was interviewed after arriving in Toronto, he mentioned how much he liked the diversity of that city, one of the most diverse cities anywhere with people from all over the globe. This may be true and likely something you are not considering; what Berrios wanted. There may be other factors. He may not have liked the way his service time was handled, for example.

I'd rather have Pablo and his contract than Berrios and his contract anyway. The way Pablo arrived in Santana's jersey, determined, for his amazing playoff performance 2 years ago was impressive. I don't think the playoff streak would be over with Berrios instead of Pablo. The Twins were never going to carry both contracts.

Posted

Maybe Berrios wanted to test the waters because we hadn't yet offered the deal the Toronto ultimately did.  I can find a whole bunch of MAGAts who will tell you the the Twin Cities are VERY diverse. 

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