Before the Calendar Turns to May, are the Twins’ Playoff Hopes Dead?

[Eric Blonigen]

It’s still early, but man, it’s getting late. Through their first 25 games, the 2025 Minnesota Twins were sitting on a rough 9-16 record. What’s the historical precedent for teams with similar records making the playoffs?

Image courtesy of © John Rieger-Imagn Images

A few days ago, Twins Daily’s Matthew Lenz set the tone that the Twins were entering a do-or-die homestand against the White Sox and Angels. Five games (and four wins) later, one thing is clear: the Twins still face very long odds of making the playoffs. Over the course of the Wild Card era (dating back to 1995), just four teams with the same record as the Twins or worse through 25 games made it to the postseason.

So, who were these four teams? What can we learn from them? And do the Twins stand a chance at making it five times in 30 years that a team who gets off to a rough start can right the ship and make it to October baseball? Let’s dig in.

The Division Winners
Funnily enough, the 2006 Twins were one of the four historical comps, starting with the same 9-16 record as the 2025 Twins. You might remember them. Peak Johan Santana, rookie Francisco Liriano, the shambling remains of Brad Radke, and the ascendant Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Joe Nathan, not to mention the entire school of piranhas.

Now, this is an interesting comp, because there are some similarities to the 2025 Twins team. The 2006 squad started slow, but was bolstered by youth: Liriano’s promotion in May; Pat Neshek was called up in June, and gave the team another late-inning arm out of the pen; and midway through the season, Nick Punto and Jason Bartlett replaced Juan Castro and Tony Batista. Offseason signing Dennys Reyes impressed, and vastly outperformed expectations.

The youth movement perfectly intersected the peaks of some talented veterans, and for much of the year, the 2006 Twins looked like a team of destiny. Santana won the pitcher’s Triple Crown. Morneau was MVP. Liriano finished third in Rookie of the Year balloting. Mauer, Santana, and Nathan all received MVP votes as well. Alas, things didn’t quite work out after Liriano’s devastating arm injury, but this team shows what’s possible when hope is alive, things break right, and there’s talent on the farm.

Also starting 9-16 was the 2015 Texas Rangers team. This was a classic worst-to-first fairytale season, the likes of which have led to World Series rings for a Twins team of yore. They finished with 88 wins, off the backs of old friends Joey Gallo, Chris Gimenez, Chi Chi Gonzalez, and Sam Dyson. Oh, and actually good players like Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli, Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, and Josh Hamilton.

They had four different players who received major awards votes, with Beltre and Fielder getting MVP votes, Shawn Tolleson getting down-ballot Cy Young votes, and Delino DeShields in the running for Rookie of the Year.

At the deadline, the Rangers swung big and traded for Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman, and both helped them down the stretch. This team featured several players who had underperformed the year before taking significant steps forward, savvy trade additions, and clutch play down the stretch. They won the division on the final day of the season.

You might be saying to yourself “there’s no way any team worse than the 2025 Twins made the playoffs”. You would be incorrect. Just last season, the Houston Astros started 7-18 before defeating mediocrity to obtain yet another division crown. The 2024 Astros team was loaded with talent, featuring Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and Ronel Blanco.

They began the season pretty injured, missing pitching mainstays Justin Verlander, Kendall Graveman, and Lance McCullers. They did get healthier as the season progressed, and also played to their actual talent level for the final three quarters of the season. This team featured a cycle, a no-hitter, and a Silver Slugger award. Ultimately, this was a case of a good-not-great team making a strong trade deadline push, acquiring the help they needed to shore up their weaknesses in Yusei Kikuchi, and reliever Jake Ferguson, and getting high-end production from those receiving awards votes: Valdez, Alvarez, Kikuchi, and Altuve.

The Wild Card Team
There’s just one example of a team starting poorly and making the playoffs, despite not being the best team in their division. Here’s the wild part. After going 7-18 through the first 25 games, the 2001 Oakland Athletics went 95-42 the rest of the way, en route to a 102-win season.

You might remember this team as well, as the book (and movie) Moneyball began with the impetus for the A's to replace Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, and Jason Isringhausen after all became free agents after the 2001 season. This team was loaded, though, as it also featured Miguel Tejada, Jermaine Dye, Barry Zito, Tim Hudson, and Mark Mulder. They played better than .750 ball for the second half of the season, and by all rights should have been division winners had it not been for the record-setting Seattle Mariners, who won 116 games. Giambi won a Silver Slugger and came in second in MVP voting. Mulder and Hudson both finished in the top-6 of Cy Young voting in their first full season with the A's.

Takeaways
Now, having just four examples in 30 years of a team off to a rough start making the playoffs is not ideal. But, four is not zero. I’m not going to tell you that hope is dead; it’s not — baseball fandom is about hope. But, the head of the needle the Twins need to thread is shrinking, and rapidly. What will the Twins need to have a realistic chance?

There are a few key pieces that are true for all of the above teams.

First, they were pretty loaded with talent at the top of their roster, guys who can carry a team for stretches and when at their best, get award votes. The 2025 Twins have the potential to check this box.

Second, they all made savvy additions that bolstered the club. For the offseason signings, the Twins have checked this box, but in a low-wattage, minimum viable product sort of way. Will they continue to do so heading into the trade deadline? Will they actually part with some pitching depth in favor of a big bat to pair with Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Matt Wallner? That remains to be seen, but will probably be required should the Twins look like contenders on, say, June 15th.

Third, they all had the ability to supplement their roster with talented additions from the farm. For the 2025 Twins, they have some top-tier talent capable of energizing the team in guys like Luke Keaschall (now injured), Zebby Matthews, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and David Festa.

The building blocks are there for the Twins to become the fifth team in 30 years to play to their potential, hit their stride, and prove the doubters wrong. But can they execute? And maybe even more importantly, can they get healthy? Weigh in below.

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[thelanges5]

[strumdatjag]

Did TD forget to include the byline with the definition of “satire”? 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

This team is too good to be this bad, but I don’t see a 10 game winning streak in them either. At least they’ve been more fun to watch lately

[bean5302]

The "shambling remains of Brad Radke" would be our ace today. His 2006 results were as good or better than Lopez, Ober or Ryan last year.

1 Cy Young, 1 All Star and RoY Candidate who was even better, and a near HoF worthy guy in the rotation. Add in 1 MVP and another MVP candidate who was even better, along with the best closer in all of baseball. Yeah, seems like 2006 is right on par with this year, haha.

Per Fangraphs, the Twins sit at 14.5% to win the division (7:1) and 36.6% to make the playoffs (3:1). The chances aren't great, but the team hasn't been eliminated or anything. It helps the Twins are 11-16, not 9-16 at this point, and the AL Central is much more pedestrian this year than expected, and there being just a couple elite teams in the AL vs a whole lot of mediocre ones so far.

The Guardians are turning in yet another lucky season which makes you question whether or not it's luck at all or a new strategy metrics don't yet evaluate properly.

[Mike Sixel]

Not even close to over. 

[LastOnePicked]

Third worst in AL. They've already dug themselves a 6 game hole. Aside from their other woes, they can't keep a phenom off the IL.

It's not over until it's over. But over is a lot closer than we'd like.

[JD-TWINS]

If the Team is .500 on July 31st they have a shot - not great, but a chance. There’s no reason to think that with Correa & Larnach starting to produce over past few games (even Lee)…….Wallner & Lewis returning over next 2-3 weeks…….. Keaschall back by All-Star break…….that the offense cannot be at least top 12-15 by end of July.

Team has a good chance to be .500 June 15th without doing anything special at all. If they just have a few Series wins they can be at .500 by end of May - again, a pretty pedestrian path forward.

[Blyleven2011]

On paper the twins were favored to win the division  , can they win the division  , perhaps but as the team looks now they are not a contender in the playoffs  ...

It all boils down to what the team can accomplish by the deadline and if FO fills the PROPER weaknesses in the team to turn the team into contenders  ...

It was a nice homestand  , but the next test is Cleveland and Boston on the road , Baltimore and San Francisco at home , Baltimore is the only current team below 500 but by the time we play them they could be hitting on all cylinders  ...

Twins hopefully have momentum going to Cleveland  , we had momentum going against Atlanta but floundered that into bring swept in Atlanta  ...

[Rosterman]

I just have to say that as a lifelong Twins fan, I have never seen a worse looking bench than I saw today - plus one of them has to be a DH (or play in the field for someone else to DH) - Gasper, Clemons, Bride, Kiersey, Vasquez. Not one will be with the team next season. All capable of being dropped from the 40-man roster at some point with little return.

[Mrs. Baseball]

On topic the pitching staff has me cautiously optimistic but optimistic nonetheless.

Off topic perhaps not as wickedly cruel as Penitentiary  Face for Jeffrey Leonard but Reyes had a great nickname. The Big Sweat.

 

[mikelink45]

With the extended playoff options, no team is out of it yet. So yes they can. And they do have some good players coming back. So I wouldn't give up yet. But next week we no longer play teams that are last place. So that will start to show if we are turning a corner or shrinking back into what we've seen so far this season

[Vanimal46]

The AL isn’t loaded this year, and per usual, the AL Central specifically looks weak. If I had to make a bet today on April 27, I would bet on the Twins missing the playoffs.

 

[chinmusic]

I like the run differential of only -2 after sweeping the Angels.

Sure, it's been a bumpy ride so far, but this team has potential.

And how about Buxton. I never thought I'd see him running and playing centre like this ever again.  Cool!

 

[Bodie]

Calling a man who pitched until he literally couldn't comb his hair due to pitching "shambling remains" is about what you'd  expect from.... well,  a White Sox fan.

And by the way, he kept on pitching after that.  Bad- mouthing a legitimate Twins legend is bad form!

[laloesch]

25 minutes ago, Bodie said:

Calling a man who pitched until he literally couldn't comb his hair due to pitching "shambling remains" is about what you'd  expect from.... well,  a White Sox fan.

And by the way, he kept on pitching after that.  Bad- mouthing a legitimate Twins legend is bad form!

I don't believe he meant it like that.

[laloesch]

18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The "shambling remains of Brad Radke" would be our ace today. His 2006 results were as good or better than Lopez, Ober or Ryan last year.

1 Cy Young, 1 All Star and RoY Candidate who was even better, and a near HoF worthy guy in the rotation. Add in 1 MVP and another MVP candidate who was even better, along with the best closer in all of baseball. Yeah, seems like 2006 is right on par with this year, haha.

Per Fangraphs, the Twins sit at 14.5% to win the division (7:1) and 36.6% to make the playoffs (3:1). The chances aren't great, but the team hasn't been eliminated or anything. It helps the Twins are 11-16, not 9-16 at this point, and the AL Central is much more pedestrian this year than expected, and there being just a couple elite teams in the AL vs a whole lot of mediocre ones so far.

The Guardians are turning in yet another lucky season which makes you question whether or not it's luck at all or a new strategy metrics don't yet evaluate properly.

And Brad Radke pitched on some horribly bad Twins teams in the mid to late 90's.  If the Pohlads had invested in better players instead of tanking in preparation for contraction (I think they began thinking about it in 93/94), he would have been a 20-game winner several more times in his career other than 1997.   

[Doctor Wu]

Playoff hopes for the Twins dead at this juncture? Not at all. Sure, it's been a  very frustrating and disappointing season so far, but another few series sweeps like we just did with the Angels, and the ship will look good in the water again. 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, laloesch said:

And Brad Radke pitched on some horribly bad Twins teams in the mid to late 90's.  If the Pohlads had invested in better players instead of tanking in preparation for contraction (I think they began thinking about it in 93/94), he would have been a 20-game winner several more times in his career other than 1997.   

Radke remains one of the most overlooked Twins. People do not realize how elite he was, and I believe Radke's efforts to get Carl Pohlad to spend money and buy into the team was a major reason the Twins weren't contracted. They overlook him being #2 in Twins pitching bWAR all time just behind Blyleven, far above guys like Santana and Kaat.