One Year Later: Reviewing the Manuel Margot Trade

[Cody Christie]

Some trades are more significant than others, but small trades around the roster's margins can make a significant difference for teams like the Twins. Here’s a look back at last spring’s trade to bolster the club's outfield depth, and how the prospects involved fit into each team’s long-term plans.

 

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins' trade for Manuel Margot was supposed to be a timely upgrade for the center-field picture. It was an insurance policy, in case Byron Buxton was injured, much like Michael A. Taylor had been in 2023. In hindsight, though, the deal was a classic case of “all that glitters isn’t gold” for Minnesota. The hope was that Margot, a player with potential in the eyes of the front office, would step in and provide coverage for the outfield, in terms of both offensive matchup play and defensive competence. Instead, it quickly became apparent that Margot was not the viable option that the team had envisioned.

In 2023, Taylor surprised many with his performance, as he popped 21 home runs and provided excellent defense in center. Entering 2024, the Twins front office attempted to find a similar player. Unfortunately, Margot’s performance was nowhere near that level of help. He managed a dismal -0.9 WAR and posted an OPS+ of just 76, both of which were career lows. Perhaps most damning of all was his performance as a pinch-hitter, as he set an MLB record by going 0-for-30 in those appearances. It was clear to Twins brass that Margot wasn’t the player they had hoped he’d be.

Thankfully for Minnesota, Buxton defied the odds by playing over 100 games for only the second time in his big-league career. Buxton’s durability meant that the insurance policy on center field, which many had counted on Margot to provide, ultimately became less critical. The Twins were spared the headache of scrambling for a replacement, as Buxton proved that he could be relied on to lead the charge in the outfield for (at least) one more season.

But the trade wasn’t all bad news for Minnesota. In the grand chess match of player acquisitions and prospect swaps, the deal for Margot was just a swap of low-minors infield prospects: Noah Miller for Rayne Doncon. And while Margot’s struggles are now etched in Twins lore, the performances of these two prospects have offered at least a glimmer of hope for the future.

Doncon has emerged as a promising prospect. Last season, before turning 21, Doncon showcased a level of maturity and production. Over 94 games at both Class A levels, he posted a respectable slash line of .254/.342/.431, while facing older pitchers in over 90% of his plate appearances. His ability was further highlighted by his 38 extra-base hits, a sign that he could provide real power potential as he continues to develop. 

Currently, Doncon slots in as the 16th-best prospect in the Twins organization on Twins Daily’s updated top-20 list. His performance justified the Twins’ decision to take a chance on him, and hinted that the trade might eventually yield dividends for Minnesota in the long run.

Miller’s journey, while not as immediately eye-catching as Doncon’s, still warrants cautious optimism. The Twins selected him with the 36th overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft. He’s been known for his strong defense at shortstop, but his offense has taken longer to develop. Last season, he played at High A and Double A, hitting .244/.318/.315 with 19 doubles and six homers. While his 2024 season might not have matched Doncon’s, his strong defense might be enough to make him a backup infielder at the big-league level.

What’s interesting about this trade is how it embodies the unpredictable nature of prospect acquisitions in today’s MLB. In many ways, the deal was a package that looked like it was designed to fill an immediate need that (thanks to Buxton’s availability) ultimately didn’t materialize. Yet, there's a silver lining to all the criticism tied to Margot's historically bad performance. Doncon has provided the kind of upside that helps add talent to a Twins system attempting to keep the franchise's winning window open.

Bigger-market teams can pay free agents to supplement the big-league roster, but that isn’t a luxury available to the Twins. Even when a deal doesn’t pan out as expected, there’s always the potential that the underlying assets will eventually pay dividends. The contrasting outcomes of Margot’s underwhelming stint and the promising signs from Doncon underscore the fine line that teams walk when trading for immediate help while also trying to invest in long-term talent. 

In the end, while Margot’s tenure with the Twins will likely be remembered as one of the more regrettable moves in recent memory, the prospect involved in the deal might be the saving grace that tips the scales in favor of Minnesota.

Did the Twins win the Margot trade? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[Linus]

The Twins missed the playoffs last year by one game. Margot’s lack of performance (along with many others) could have been the difference. So it’s highly unlikely that Doncon will ever do anything in the big leagues that would offset what could have been with the right player in the outfield last year. 

[jmlease1]

Yeah, the Margot trade was a bad one. period. he sucked last season, and couldn't fill the role he was needed for, and they almost certainly would have been better off looking elsewhere. being adequate against LHP while being awful against RHP (which is where half his ABs came) and being poor in the OF...hells bells, we would have been better off with Kiersey even if he couldn't hit LHP.

I think Doncon is more likely to play meaningful time in MLB, assuming he can stay healthy. He's got some upside as a hitter, even if he's a little limited defensively.

Miller is an excellent SS, but he hasn't developed at all as a hitter and shown no signs of it either. maybe he'll do better in AA the second time around, but pitchers have no reason to fear his bat at all and can simply overwhelm him. His upside is defensive replacement/utility guy, but his bat looks so weak right now that he's most likely only going to see MLB if a team has him in AAA and gets hit with a bunch of injuries where they have no other viable SS options. While Miller's glove plays, he looks like a complete zero on offense, so how comfortable is a team going to be even as a utility guy? He's only 22 so there's still a chance he finds an approach at the plate that makes him a legitimate SS option, but he's never had a season with an OPS over .700 in his career. the walks dried up in AA because he couldn't steal walks from pitchers who couldn't throw strikes any longer, and was facing pitchers who were advanced enough to understand that if they ran a 3 ball count they could throw a fastball over the plate without fear. For those who were convinced the Dodgers were going to transform him through their vaunted development system...he looks like exactly the same guy: all glove, no hit.

[jud6312]

"(thanks to Buxton’s availability) ..."

 

Um, what did I miss last year? The last time I checked, Buxton started 87 games in CF, which is about 53%. He came in as a defensive substitute another 7 times.

 

That means there were 75 games (47%) where there was ABSOLUTELY an immediate need for production in CF, which ideally would have fallen on Margot.

 

As @Linusmentioned, they missed the playoffs by 1 game. Margot didn't produce and the others manning the position didn't produce enough. End of story.

 

Just because Doncon might end up outperforming Miller down the line, doesn't make this trade a success. Sure, it would be a nice consolation prize, but the desired outcome of that deal didn't come to fruition.

[DJL44]

Mostly nothing for mostly nothing. The Twins made the trade worse by keeping Margot on the roster for the whole season instead of cutting bait when it was apparent that his athleticism had declined.

[Jocko87]

But still a big win at this point and only likely to get better.

They sent away a single prospect who slugs sub 0.200 in a wet paper bag and got value.

They real question should be why did they spend such a high pick on Miller when he can't hit a lick? Good on them for getting out before the asset hit bottom but they certainly didn't get the pick value back.

They did get someone who might be able to play at least.

[tony&rodney]

Great trade because it has generated a ton of articles and comments about Margot. Who even knew Margot would ever be that important in Twins history?

[Doc Lenz]

Had the Twins resigned Taylor last season instead of Margot….would have been a playoff team.

[RpR]

5 minutes ago, Doc Lenz said:

Had the Twins resigned Taylor last season instead of Margot….would have been a playoff team.

For his glove manybe, Taylor did lousy last season.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Doc Lenz said:

Had the Twins resigned Taylor last season instead of Margot….would have been a playoff team.

Taylor had an OPS worse than Margot last year.  

[old nurse]

Before last season Margot had a career OPS as a pinch hitter somewhere around .200.  Expecting or hoping to do better was a mistake in scouting.  It was a mistake to continue to use him as a PH. If the goal of the trade was a backup CF, the trade was neither a win nor a loss. If it was for how they used him, they should have done better. They took a contract off the Dodgers bankroll for a prospect 10 mil is a lot for a prospect. I guess we will have to wait and see if the hitting develops.  If it doesn’t become passable then the trade is a win.  

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Doc Lenz said:

Had the Twins resigned Taylor last season instead of Margot….would have been a playoff team.

Vazquez was the worst hitter on the team last year.  MAT was worse than Vasquez so I am not the least bit disappointed that they didn't resign MAT.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

But still a big win at this point and only likely to get better.

They sent away a single prospect who slugs sub 0.200 in a wet paper bag and got value.

They real question should be why did they spend such a high pick on Miller when he can't hit a lick? Good on them for getting out before the asset hit bottom but they certainly didn't get the pick value back.

They did get someone who might be able to play at least.

Miller was 18 with a great glove. It's not unreasonable to think "hey, we'll work with this kid, develop his hit tool, he'll get stronger and hit enough to be a possible SS". A lot of times with a late first/compensation pick/high second you're looking at guys that have 1-2 elite tools or guys that have 3-5 good tools. Not crazy to take a swing at a guy like Miller, especially when it's hard to find players who have the chops to be superior defenders at SS. It's why the Dodgers were interested even after a couple of years in the twins system where he didn't hit much.

but he sure looks like a guy who can't hit. Doncon will be at 3B or 2B sooner rather than later, but his bat is interesting and has potential. And he has the advantage of being a year younger than Miller.

[Doctor Gast]

Looking only at Margot, who is the main player in the trade. We lost a lot of money & games. Having him cemented on the roster & line-up had to be demoralizing to the young players & the team in general. Miller/ Doncon is debatable. Doncon is an average fielder & won't stick at SS. Our SS position depth is very shakey, IMO, giving up a gold glove, MLB-ready glove hurts. We have a lot 3Bmen, I doubt Doncon would ever make our MLB roster. Miller is just a few months older than Doncon & is in AA. IMO, I'd pick Miller over Doncon but either way Margot really killed us. LAD wanted to dump Margot, they easily won the trade by far. As I said at the trade. If LAD were eager to dump Margot & saw something in Miller, I trust their evaluation.

[sweetmusicviola16]

This trade was a huge loss for the Twins. Lost Miller and gained Margot. That says it all. As for Doncon, he's a middling prospect. 

[DocBauer]

The Twins wanted Taylor back but he was holding out for a better deal. Ironically, he ended up signing for what the Twins had on mind, or less. But considering how bad his bat was, IDK know that his glove alone would have made any difference.

In a vacuum, adding Margot wasn't a bad idea. He had a reputation as a quality CF, but was coming off an injury. A bum ankle IIRC. And he was actually younger than Taylor. Unfortunately, Margot got OLD like overnight. So it turned out to be a bad move. But again, initially, it looked like a solid 1yr move.

I wish Miller no ill will. Maybe he'll be a late bloomer and the bat will come around, even if it's just enough to be a decent utility player. But so far, the younger Doncon shows a bat with some life and potential. So perhaps the Twins still "win" this trade ultimately, but we're talking a pretty hollow victory for a trade that didn't pay any real dividends. (Much like the Polanco trade).

IMO, the worst part of the Margot trade was sticking with him all season. Despite a pretty good June and July that actually helped the Twins win some games, he was just awful. Continuing to play him so much, with poor production and poor defense...not to mention the 0-forver PH numbers...compounded a poor trade. Maybe Helman and Keirsey...who FINALLY got a SSS run in September...wouldn't have done any better. But I'm not sure they could have done worse. And at least the Twins could have gotten a decent look at both, and maybe would have gotten a surprise. 

 

[twinstalker]

6 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

This trade was a huge loss for the Twins. Lost Miller and gained Margot. That says it all. As for Doncon, he's a middling prospect. 

Lost Miller, yeah, that was huge.  Twins have made bad choice after bad choice, and it was obvious from the beginning Miller was another.  To waste 1st round picks on Miller and DeBarge, Sabato and Cavaco, I wonder how the drafting department has jobs.  They've made one good early pick that wasn't obvious (Jenkins, Lee, Lewis sort of), and that's Keaschall.  In eight drafts.  Meanwhile, the Red Sox are drafting Anthony in the 2nd rd and Campbell in the 4th, Braden Montgomery with the 12th pick, Kyle Teel at 14, Nick Yorke at 17, Casas at 26, Houck at 24.

While Keaschall is an exception with the Twins, the few exceptions over the same eight years for the Red Sox are the ones who didn't make it.  They don't know what to look for with hitters, and they don't seem to be able to develop it.  Noah Miller was a wasted pick.  Someone who fields well enough but will never have the bat necessary.  And that's a travesty with a round 1 supplemental pick.

[Otaknam]

I was surprised the Twins didn’t resign Taylor, given his productivity in 2023. Margot was paid &10 million for 2024, whereas Taylor was paid $4.6 million in 2023 and $4 million with Pittsburgh in 2024. So the FO paid Margot $6 million more than Taylor in 2024. But both played poorly in 2024, though Taylor’s defense is superior to Margot. 

[jmlease1]

53 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

I was surprised the Twins didn’t resign Taylor, given his productivity in 2023. Margot was paid &10 million for 2024, whereas Taylor was paid $4.6 million in 2023 and $4 million with Pittsburgh in 2024. So the FO paid Margot $6 million more than Taylor in 2024. But both played poorly in 2024, though Taylor’s defense is superior to Margot. 

Twins didn't pay Margot anywhere near $10M. Remember, a significant chunk of Margot's salary was being paid elsewhere. It still was a trade that didn';t work out, but the Twins FO didn't pay Margot $6M more than Taylor, even if Margot made $6M more.

And the Twins clearly wanted Taylor back, and this is where agents and pride get in the way. Twins would have brought Taylor back for $5M, but he wanted more like $8M and wouldn't come down...so he ended up signing for less with someone else. You see this all the time where guys can't take less than they think they're worth from their current squad, and then when their market is settled and there aren't a lot of choices left, they go elsewhere for less rather than admit they were wrong about their team's offer.

[Schmoeman5]

On 4/4/2025 at 9:18 AM, Linus said:

The Twins missed the playoffs last year by one game. Margot’s lack of performance (along with many others) could have been the difference. So it’s highly unlikely that Doncon will ever do anything in the big leagues that would offset what could have been with the right player in the outfield last year. 

The Twins missed the playoffs by 4 games.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

I will miss Noah Miller. But my rationalization for still thinking it was a good trade was that Correa was blocking him. So he is more valuable to the Dodgers than to us...

I am more than happy to see Doncon succeed! 

Margot was worth it for the lols, even if he coulda done better. I got no issue with them giving him a chance.

[Riverbrian]

21 hours ago, twinstalker said:

In eight drafts.  Meanwhile, the Red Sox are drafting Anthony in the 2nd rd and Campbell in the 4th, Braden Montgomery with the 12th pick, Kyle Teel at 14, Nick Yorke at 17, Casas at 26, Houck at 24.

Develop or Die. 

Important for the teams that have money as well. 

The Red Sox currently have 15 pre-arb players on their roster. The Twins have 9. 

Margot was not good. The need for a Margot is ten times worse. 

[USAFChief]

One year later: still putrid